Thursday Night Football: BUCS @ EAGLES 8 PM

[Manster7588]

So much for that.

 

[sonnyblack65]

It would have but I just think Philly got screwed but end of story.........

Move on

yeah move on and stop your taunting or Seattle and Jax will both get 15 yard penalties!!

 

[ericd7633]

FU Philly. Who does that? Why go for 2 there?

It's as if they had Vegas on the phone.

Statistically it gives them a better chance of winning the game. Still slim given they were losing, but it was the correct call.

 

[Cedrique]

Statistically it gives them a better chance of winning the game. Still slim given they were losing, but it was the correct call.

Yeah it makes sense if you don't want to go into overtime, which I'm guessing they didn't because their defense has been getting run over all night.

 

[ericd7633]

Yeah it makes sense if you don't want to go into overtime, which I'm guessing they didn't because their defense has been getting run over all night.

Yeah that too. It's why kicking that FG made no sense. We never even got two more possessions on offense and we're down two possessions, whether that's a make or miss.

 

[fastforward]

The math on the 2 point conversion goes something like this - You're down 14 points with not long left in the 4th quarter. You need to score 2 TDs and have the other team not score. If that doesn't happen it doesn't matter what you do. If it does happen it comes down to math game theory.

Q) If the average chance of kicking the XP is 100% and the average change of converting the 2 point conversion is 38.2% which action gives you the best chance of winning?

Kicking XPs will give you a 0% chance of winning in regulation, a 0% chance of losing in regulation and a 100% chance of going to OT.

The alternative strategy is to go for 2 points on the 1st attempt and if you make it kick the 2nd XP. If you fail the 1st attempt you attempt it again on the 2nd TD. This strategy will result in you winning by 1 point in regulation 38.2% of the time, you will lose by 2 points in regulation 38.2% of the time, and you will got to OT 23.6% of the time.

Teams are less than 100% on XPs and they are generally better than 38.2% on 2 point conversions. Thus they are better off going for 2 points in this specific situation. Essentially they are gambling away the chance to lose by 1 point for extra for additional chances to win. Over the long run the team would score fewer total points by going for 2 if they have a conversion rate of between 38.2% and 50% but they would have a higher winning %.

 

[Duffman]

 

[NWPATSFAN]

actually the eagles has been doing that all year. but it still sucks. Lose by .5 instead of winning by .5

Thus another reason Philly is a shit show.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

Statistically it gives them a better chance of winning the game. Still slim given they were losing, but it was the correct call.

Sorry, but it's not the correct call. Let's say they some scored another TD. Do they kick the PAT then? Or go for another 2pt conversion.

If they don't make the 2pt conversion there, then they are forced to try it had they scored again.

It's not like there would've been enough time to kick two FGs.

No reason to go for two where they did except to screw everyone who were giving up -6.5.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

Statistically it gives them a better chance of winning the game. Still slim given they were losing, but it was the correct call.

Statistically kicking a 60+ yard FG rather than punting gives a team a better chance at winning if they make it.

Going for two there is dumb. Take the PAT. If you get
the ball back and are lucky enough to score another TD and you don't want to go into OT then try your 2pt conversion for the win or loss. Do or die.

Not to mention the pyschological effects. A missed 2pt conversion there gives the other team a boost while deminishing your teams.

 

[Montalban]

Blaine Gabbert sure has made a nice living for having very little talent

 

[jarntt]

Every pass Hurts throws is by definition, uncatchable. Thus no PI

 

[jarntt]

The math on the 2 point conversion goes something like this - You're down 14 points with not long left in the 4th quarter. You need to score 2 TDs and have the other team not score. If that doesn't happen it doesn't matter what you do. If it does happen it comes down to math game theory.

Q) If the average chance of kicking the XP is 100% and the average change of converting the 2 point conversion is 38.2% which action gives you the best chance of winning?

Kicking XPs will give you a 0% chance of winning in regulation, a 0% chance of losing in regulation and a 100% chance of going to OT.

The alternative strategy is to go for 2 points on the 1st attempt and if you make it kick the 2nd XP. If you fail the 1st attempt you attempt it again on the 2nd TD. This strategy will result in you winning by 1 point in regulation 38.2% of the time, you will lose by 2 points in regulation 38.2% of the time, and you will got to OT 23.6% of the time.

Teams are less than 100% on XPs and they are generally better than 38.2% on 2 point conversions. Thus they are better off going for 2 points in this specific situation. Essentially they are gambling away the chance to lose by 1 point for extra for additional chances to win. Over the long run the team would score fewer total points by going for 2 if they have a conversion rate of between 38.2% and 50% but they would have a higher winning %.

I'm not sure where you got that from. I think your initial percentages for both the 2 pt conversion and XP are off by quite a bit, which affects the outcome of your scenario.

 

[Montalban]

Gotta love the Philly crowd

 

[Iggloo]

Man, the Eagles are tough to watch right now. Terrible coaching. The only positive I can say is that they probably just went through the toughest part of the schedule, losing to the Niners, Chiefs, Cowboys and Bucs. It looks easier the rest of the way, especially the rest of the games against NFC East opponents.

 

[ericd7633]

Sorry, but it's not the correct call. Let's say they some scored another TD. Do they kick the PAT then? Or go for another 2pt conversion.

If they don't make the 2pt conversion there, then they are forced to try it had they scored again.

It's not like there would've been enough time to kick two FGs.

No reason to go for two where they did except to screw everyone who were giving up -6.5.

The Eagles had a 100% success rate on 2 point conversions coming into the game. The avg success rate in 2018 and 2019 was 49.4%. The success rate on PAT's was 94.1%. So not only was it the correct call based on win probability, it was also the correct call based on the percentages. Honestly, based on those numbers, teams should go for 2 every time they score a TD, especially a team like the Eagles that have a 100% conversion rate this season.

 

[jarntt]

Man, the Eagles are tough to watch right now. Terrible coaching. The only positive I can say is that they probably just went through the toughest part of the schedule, losing to the Niners, Chiefs, Cowboys and Bucs. It looks easier the rest of the way, especially the rest of the games against NFC East opponents.

Since Sirianni likes to wear t-shirts to endear himself to the eagles fan base, maybe this week he should wear a "Fire Sirianni" t-shirt

 

[Manster7588]

Since Sirianni likes to wear t-shirts to endear himself to the eagles fan base, maybe this week he should wear a "Fire Sirianni" t-shirt

He can wear this.

 

[mrschaney]

Is it just me, or did the Eagles head coach jack his beardline all up? Way to high, he needs to look at Andy Dalton or Kevin Stefanski of the Browns to see how to properly maintain his lower boundaries!

 

[DJ]

The Eagles are a scrappy team.....gave the Bucs fits before losing.