I actually disagree. First off, every situation is different when going for a 2 point conversion so you have to take it one scenario at a time. The Eagles coming into the game didn't stand much of a chance and they fell behind by 3 TD's. Philly had momentum on their side after 2 straight TD's and the Bucs were on the ropes, that was the perfect time to go for it for multiple reasons. The Bucs were winded from that long drive, they weren't going to call a TO bc they were up by one score still and they trust in the GOAT with one more drive to secure the win. There is no risk for trying for that 2 pt conversion and they succeeded. If you do kick the extra point, get the ball and decide to go for 2 at the end of the game, the Bucs likely have a TO to prepare and you give that experienced defense that seems to step up in the right moment time to prepare and hype to stop them. I actually love the call and it was perfect timing but in the end it really didn't matter bc the defense put faith in Brady getting a couple first downs and it all worked out. With today's rules and the extra point try being pushed back teams are going for it more and more. Like we saw last week more extra points are being missed at a very high level compared to the past and offenses are more dynamic. You will continue to see more teams go for the 2 point conversion especially if their kicker is struggling so get used to it. Perfect timing for that 2 point conversion and no it wasn't about covering the spread, that is stupid shit.
Yes if they score another TD they kick the PAT for the lead. If they kick the PAT on the first score then miss the 2 PT conversion they lose the game. But if they go for the 2 PT conversion on the first TD they still have a chance to tie the game with a TD and 2 PT conversion.
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OK we can agree to disagree.
I posted simple break-even points. If the 2 point conversion average was 40% and the XP average was 100% going for 2 would win the game 0.4 X 1.0 X 100% = 40%. If the team missed the 1st 2 point conversion but made the 2nd to tie the game then a tied game going to OT would be 0.6 X 0.4 X 100% = 24%. Missing both conversions and thus losing the game by 2 points would be 0.6 X 0.6 X 100% = 36%. Having a 40% vs 36% advantage would clearly be better than a 50% vs 50% stalemate and certain OT. If the conversion rate was above 40% then it's even more advantageous. Obviously XPs are less than 100% so that also makes going for 2 more advantageous.
