Biggest weaknesses for NFC North teams - ESPN Insider

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Biggest roster weaknesses for Bears, Lions, Packers, Vikings - NFL

Biggest weaknesses for NFC North teams
By Sterling Xie
Football Outsiders

In a series of articles over the next few days, Football Outsiders will be looking division-by-division at the biggest weakness left on each team's roster after free agency and the 2015 NFL draft.

This edition examines the NFC North.


Chicago Bears
Biggest post-draft weakness: Secondary

You can really pick your poison with either cornerback or safety here, and unfortunately the Bears will have to. They have little in the way of surefire foundational pieces at defensive back. In fairness, switching to Vic Fangio's multiple 3-4 scheme requires a multiyear commitment to overhauling the old personnel.

Most of the carryovers from last season are now misfit toys (we're looking at you, Jared Allen and Lamarr Houston) and, given the equally pressing turmoil in the offensive passing game, there simply weren't enough resources to fix everything in a single offseason. Chicago chose to address the front seven this year, drafting Eddie Goldman in the second round and pouring their free-agent dollars into Pernell McPhee, Mason Foster, Ray McDonald and Jarvis Jenkins.

Of course, that means the Bears will bring back virtually the same secondary that spearheaded the 29th-ranked pass defense in 2014, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings. Kyle Fuller was a legitimate defensive rookie of the year candidate at the end of September but tailed off significantly after tallying three interceptions in his first three games. By the end of the year, our charting ranked him as the most-targeted cornerback in the league, and his 9.6 adjusted yards allowed per pass ranked 68 out of 77 qualifying corners.

And Fuller is the most promising hope for the unit. Even after letting longtime starter Charles Tillman leave, the Bears still employ four defensive backs older than 30, all of whom are feasible bets to make the final roster. Antrel Rolle and Tim Jennings are firmly in their twilight years and no locks to hang around past this season. Ditto for Ryan Mundy and Alan Ball, who could carve out roles in sub packages. As for youth, nickelback Demontre Hurst came out of our charting with a horrid 13.5 adjusted yards allowed per pass. And Brock Vereen received plenty of reps filling in for the perpetually dinged-up Chris Conte but didn't distinguish himself and will receive competition from fifth-rounder Adrian Amos for the starting free safety spot.

Even if you want to chalk up Fuller's second-half struggles to the injury cocktail he played through, the 2014 first-rounder might be the only defensive back on the roster worth keeping past 2015.


Detroit Lions
Biggest post-draft weakness: Defensive tackle

If you step back, it's pretty remarkable that neither Ndamukong Suh nor Nick Fairley garnered a second contract in the Motor City. The duo anchored a dominant front seven that ranked first in run defense DVOA and adjusted line yards, both by fairly wide margins. With both former first-rounders departed, Detroit loses the core foundation of its defensive roster. Trading for Haloti Ngata was a shrewd short-term decision that only cost the organization fourth- and fifth-round selections, which they figure to recoup through compensatory picks next year.

But Ngata has been on a steady decline from his All-Pro peak, and he is no longer capable of creating the type of ripple effect that elevates an entire unit, much like Suh did. A bigger question is who plays next to Ngata. Tyrunn Walker, an interesting pass-rusher who has been productive in spurts for the New Orleans Saints, signed a modest one-year, $1.75 million deal in free agency. Ngata and Walker both arrive from 3-4 systems, something that might augur more hybrid fronts from Teryl Austin's defense, even if Austin still employs four down linemen.

C.J. Mosley also remains available in free agency, though a return to Detroit appears unlikely. Mosley was a serviceable starter the second half of the season after Fairley went down with a sprained MCL. Assuming Mosley doesn't return, the defensive tackle rotation currently consists of Ngata, Walker, Caraun Reid, rookie Gabe Wright and other assorted pieces.

In some ways, it's not necessarily a concern if this position is Detroit's biggest personnel hole. Unless the Lions magically conjured J.J. Watt onto their roster, no one in the league was really capable of fully replicating Suh's impact. Rather than throwing too many darts at a fruitless proposition, the cap-strapped Lions resisted the temptation to carry out another massive loan and mortgage their future for Suh.

Detroit addressed many of its most pressing 2014 needs in the draft, retooling its interior offensive line, adding an explosive backfield option in Ameer Abdullah and supplementing the cornerback depth with Alex Carter and Quandre Diggs. With proper development, the Lions might be better off in the long run, but the retooling leaves legit short-term issues.

 

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Part 2 of 2

Green Bay Packers
Biggest post-draft weakness: Edge rusher

Truthfully, Green Bay didn't enter the draft with many holes. Most observers highlighted cornerback and inside linebacker as the Packers' two biggest areas of need, and Ted Thompson used three of his first four picks on those positions.

We're also assuming here that Clay Matthews plays the majority of his snaps at inside linebacker in 2015. Matthews was actually more productive as a pass-rusher when he moved inside, with 9.5 of his 12 sacks last season coming during the final eight games. Moreover, he produced nearly as many combined sacks, hits and hurries in the second half of the season (20.5) as he did in the first half (23.5), despite dropping into coverage much more frequently. However, there's no guarantee Matthews will continue to produce from a nontraditional rushing spot in 2015, and he'll likely need to remain inside on prime passing downs. It's certainly not out of the question that either third-year man Sam Barrington or rookie fourth-rounder Jake Ryan could emerge as a viable three-down option in 2015, but counting on both seems like a long shot.

Julius Peppers was still productive last season, generating a league-high 11 disruptions (a stat combining batted passes and incompletions caused by hitting the quarterback), but the 35-year-old alone wasn't able to keep the Packers from experiencing an overall pass-rushing drop. After finishing in the top five in adjusted sack rate each of the previous two seasons, the Packers dipped to 14th last year. Apart from Peppers and Matthews, most of Green Bay's pressure came from interior linemen Mike Daniels and Datone Jones, who ranked 75th and 85th, respectively, in total hurries. With nine career sacks, 2012 first-rounder Nick Perry is teetering toward the bust label, as evidenced by Green Bay's decision to decline his fifth-year option. Mike Neal is fine as a supplementary contributor, but it's probably not ideal that the Packers have given him 700-plus snaps each of the past two seasons.

It says a lot about Green Bay that an average pass rush profiles as its biggest problem, but if the callow cornerback corps doesn't shake out as expected, this could become a bigger issue than it appears at the moment.


Minnesota Vikings
Biggest post-draft weakness: Left guard

Is Rick Spielman slowly building a powerhouse? The Vikings' past three drafts have received rave reviews from draftniks, and apart from Matt Kalil and Cordarrelle Patterson, the returns have largely been encouraging. Quarterback is the most important position, of course, and Teddy Bridgewater's rookie season suggested that he was clearly the top passer in an otherwise shaky 2014 class. With the Adrian Peterson saga looking like it will end with the 2012 MVP begrudgingly wearing purple, the Vikings have the core of a legitimately exciting contender in place.

However, protecting Bridgewater was an issue for Minnesota, which ranked 27th in adjusted sack rate. Much of that stemmed from Kalil's struggles and season-ending injuries to Brandon Fusco and Phil Loadholt, but all three will be back and presumably starting in 2015.

Depending on how Kalil bounces back after offseason surgeries on both knees, the Vikings' biggest hole along the offensive line may actually be at left guard, as four-year starter Charlie Johnson was released in the offseason. Johnson had largely earned apathy for subpar play, and while he's someone you'd hope to upgrade from in the long run, the 31-year-old was one of the few Minnesota linemen who was both consistently available and passable. Last season, our game charters marked Johnson down for a blown block once every 62.4 snaps, fourth-best among Minnesota linemen and a general middle-of-the-pack rate among all offensive linemen. Veteran journeyman Joe Berger was slightly better at 72 snaps per blown block at right guard, and he could compete with 2014 fifth-rounder David Yankey for Johnson's old spot.

The left guard battle belies a general lack of interior line depth as a whole. Minnesota did extract nice value from a pair of tackles in the draft, nabbing T.J. Clemmings in the fourth round and Tyrus Thompson in the sixth. However, the loser of the Berger-Yankey battle is probably the top interior backup, along with rookie seventh-rounder Austin Shepherd. For a team that ended last season rolling out the likes of Vlad Ducasse and Mike Harris, it might have been a wiser idea to slightly overinvest in the offensive line to provide maximum insurance for Bridgewater's development.

 

[Tainthappening]

For the Packers, I think most Packers fans I talk with believe rush defense is the biggest weakness.