Big Blue Wrecking Crew @ Big Brew Wrecking Crew

[Villain]

Exactly what he did in the minors and no different than Kemp.

I don't understand why it matters to talk about what a guy was.

I don't even know how to react to your posts anymore.

 

[lasportzphan]

I don't even know how to react to your posts anymore.

No different in Kemp as it relates to Ks. They strike out a lot.

However, Perdersons walk/k/hr pattern right now correlates to his minor league numbers.

Come on, you're not this dim.

 

[Villain]

No different in Kemp as it relates to Ks. They strike out a lot.

They strike out a lot, sure, but they have way different strikeouts. Their approaches are not even close to being the same. Kemp chased (and still does) bad pitches, while Joc takes a lot and falls victim to the umpire's perspective on close pitches. He strikes out looking all the time.

Yes, Joc also has a high whiff rate, but his whiff rate is not spectacular given league trends. Nowadays hitters aren't trying to weakly put balls into play with 2 strikes. Young hitters are still swinging hard regardless of the count. That's part of the reason that strikeout numbers are streadily increasings across MLB.

Joc has the 8th-worst K% in MLB this season. Look who is above him and tell me if you would consider any of those players to be veterans:

(To dumb it down for you, the point is that his numbers might be higher because of a different approach by younger hitters. A "new school" way of hitting.)

However, Perdersons walk/k/hr pattern right now correlates to his minor league numbers.

Not exactly. His strikeout numbers in MLB are way worse and his baserunning has been atrocious.

K%
AAA: 26.9% MLB: 32.8%.

BB%
AAA: 18.1% MLB: 22.7%

His MLB SLG is way higher than his AAA SLG. Dude, his slash line doesn't correlate at all. They don't look alike at all. Honestly, I don't know what you're talking about. His numbers don't match up at all.

I think you're just making this shit up. You're pulling a Skip Bayless on me.

Come on, you're not this dim.

You call me dim, you call me contratrarian. Frankly, I think we simply don't see things through the same lenses. My perspective is supported by facts and numbers, but I don't know what the hell you're doing to find your conclusions. (maybe you read or listen to ESPN or Dave Vassegh...?)

 

[lasportzphan]

They strike out a lot, sure, but they have way different strikeouts. Their approaches are not even close to being the same. Kemp chased (and still does) bad pitches, while Joc takes a lot and falls victim to the umpire's perspective on close pitches. He strikes out looking all the time.

Yes, Joc also has a high whiff rate, but his whiff rate is not spectacular given league trends. Nowadays hitters aren't trying to weakly put balls into play with 2 strikes. Young hitters are still swinging hard regardless of the count. That's part of the reason that strikeout numbers are streadily increasings across MLB.

Joc has the 8th-worst K% in MLB this season. Look who is above him and tell me if you would consider any of those players to be veterans:

(To dumb it down for you, the point is that his numbers might be higher because of a different approach by younger hitters. A "new school" way of hitting.)



Not exactly. His strikeout numbers in MLB are way worse and his baserunning has been atrocious.

K%
AAA: 26.9% MLB: 32.8%.

BB%
AAA: 18.1% MLB: 22.7%

His MLB SLG is way higher than his AAA SLG. Dude, his slash line doesn't correlate at all. They don't look alike at all. Honestly, I don't know what you're talking about. His numbers don't match up at all.

I think you're just making this shit up. You're pulling a Skip Bayless on me.



You call me dim, you call me contratrarian. Frankly, I think we simply don't see things through the same lenses. My perspective is supported by facts and numbers, but I don't know what the hell you're doing to find your conclusions. (maybe you read or listen to ESPN or Dave Vassegh...?)

So.... Let me get this straight.

Right now Joc is tied for first in BB throughout all of MLB (with Harper! Good company)
Last season (in the PCL) he led the league in walks (by 15 walks)

Right Joc is tied for 6th in HRs throughout MLB
First in PCL home runs

Right now Joc is tied for 7th in Ks throughout all of MLB
Last season (in the PCL) Joc was 4th in Ks overall

Among his peers (smaller sample size in MLB, but correlation brewing) his walks and Ks are consistent. I 100% stand by my comment that Joc's Walks/Ks/HRs are consistent from minors to majors. He Ks a lot, bbs a lot and hits the long ball in both leagues at a high rate.

 

[lasportzphan]

As for the percentages, I expect those to come down a bit, perhaps the walks? Hopefully the Ks? The kid is adjusting and learning. So we will see, but in the minors he led in these categories and in the bigs his among the leaders in these categories.

As for approach compared to Kemp and two strikes, I think we went down this road and agree (I recall agreeing with MVPuig on his two strike approach moving forward). And I think your observation as it relates to younger players free swinging and not shortening up with two strikes is fascinating. I don't think I had suggested or proposed anything to the contrary.

I would just add that it's funny how the Giants have won three WS, good pitching and timely hitting. Sandavol turns into a new man with two strikes in the playoffs and suddenly shows discipline and shortens up! So I'll be curious how this young generation gets coached in the bigs.

 

[lasportzphan]

As for the most recent Joc article, this is what I read.... Insider so I have to c&p:

The outstanding-but-silly numbers that Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Joc Pederson is producing don’t look like anything a rookie has ever done before because, well, they aren’t. Pederson enters Thursday with his past seven hits all going for home runs, including a pair of home runs in Milwaukee on Wednesday, and that’s perhaps what fantasy owners are noticing most. I’m also checking out the walk and strikeout rates, because as it stands today, nobody is drawing free passes at a 20 percent rate while also swinging and missing for outs more than 30 percent of the time. It’s like watching former slugger Adam Dunn but with a ton of speed and Gold Glove-prowess in center field, except even Dunn didn’t walk this much.

Pederson is obviously owned in all fantasy leagues, but the question is about value and whether this is a wise time to see if someone else will overpay for him, or whether we’ve got a superstar in the making. I actually predicted that Pederson, and not the awesome Chicago Cubs third base prospect Kris Bryant, would take home top NL rookie honors this season, but even then my expectations were for a 20-homer, 20-steal season and high Wins Above Replacement (WAR) due to his defense. Pederson is certainly on his way to topping the first and third figure, and if he keeps walking and becomes more successful when he attempts to run, the second is in jeopardy as well. But I’m watching his contact rates. We call what Pederson is doing a Three True Outcomes approach, which can be dangerous as well as successful.

First of all, thanks to Inside Edge and ESPN Stats & Info, we’re informed that nobody is doing more damage when making contact than Pederson, with more than 45 percent of the balls he’s hit having been hit hard. This is unsustainable, by quite a bit. Pederson is special, but come on. If you hit a ball hard a third of the time, you deserve major props (Freddie Freeman is second at 37.8 percent). However, the rates in which Pederson doesn’t put the ball in play are astounding, and the strikeouts are more likely to continue than the walks. People strike out. Lots of them. Most don’t hit for average. Nine players have a 30 percent strikeout rate, and while most hit for power and some draw walks, Pederson is the only one with an on-base percentage higher than .345. No one is hitting better than .273. I don’t think Pederson will be able to hit even his current and hardly flashy .272 for long. His isolated power is a ridiculous .395; last year’s leader among qualified players was Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Edwin Encarnacionwith a .279 ISO. Nobody expects Pederson, with seven home runs in nine games and nine overall in 27 contests, to keep this rate up. But what numbers should we expect as a baseline?

As the team’s leadoff hitter for a week, Pederson is batting .222 with six home runs in seven games. He hasn’t abandoned his patient approach, but it’s worth pointing out his overall elevated walk rate as the team’s misplaced No. 8 hitter, where he had more walks than K's. That isn’t unusual batting in front of the pitcher. Batting in front of a struggling Jimmy Rollins is different. Let’s see if Pederson can draw walks at a 15 percent clip, which is still really high, especially for someone so young. Let’s also see if he can hang in there and avoid being overwhelmed against left-handed pitching. So far we don’t really know, and manager Don Mattingly could, when his outfield is healthy, rest Pederson against the Madison Bumgarner types. We’ve seen what he’s doing against right-handers, and they too will adjust. Pederson’s homers, all off right-handers, have traveled more than 420 feet. Among 51 hitters with five or more home runs, only the blasts from Milwaukee Brewersoutfielder Ryan Braun have traveled a longer average distance. That’s good news. The power is real. But it’s also not sustainable.

I don’t view Pederson as a guy likely to provide more than 30 home runs, even as it stands today when he’s nearly a third of the way there, or someone likely to bat anywhere near .300. The fact that he and New York Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira, himself slow and aged, are the only players with at least three homers to have more home runs than singles, is kind of silly. For one of them it makes sense. Pederson will hit singles. When this power rampage settles down, and it always does, I see a .250 hitter that with his advanced approach will get on base at a high level, start stealing more bases at a successful clip -- he’s only 1-for-4 so far, which is also odd -- while still providing power.

Where does he end up? My able colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft placed Pederson at No. 120 in his recent Wednesday rankings. I already had Pederson in my top 100 back in March, and now he’s in my top 50. I think some of this statistical goodness continues. I’d deal Pederson if the price is high, looking for a top-20 hitter, top-15 pitcher or something good in combination at this point. Aim high, right, even if it’s not plausible. If your true need is power and batting average, sell soon. Sell high on anyone doing this. Sell high on Nelson Cruzand Adrian Gonzalez, too. I think Pederson ends up around 25 home runs, 20 stolen bases and a .255 batting average, with at least 85 runs, assuming he continues to lead off. That’s really good and similar to what I believed in March. But that’s definitely a top-50 player. Invest, but with awareness of how his numbers should alter.

 

[Villain]

You expect the minor league leaders to be the MLB leaders in their rookie seasons. Got it.

Here, I found a gif of you with your friends:

You say one thing, the numbers say otherwise, you change to what you really meant later. C'mon man. Keep it straight.

 

[lasportzphan]

You expect the minor league leaders to be the MLB leaders in their rookie seasons. Got it.

Here, I found a gif of you with your friends:

You say one thing, the numbers say otherwise, you change to what you really meant later. C'mon man. Keep it straight.

Uh, I don't expect anything. I'm just noting the stats as of this morning.