Badgers with the biggest upset @ #2MD

[Great Dayne]

UW at this time 2 years ago was struggling even worse in BIG play than they're this year as they were 8-5 at this point but went on to make the final four and nearly the championship game.

 

[dcZONAfan]

UW at this time 2 years ago was struggling even worse in BIG play than they're this year as they were 8-5 at this point but went on to make the final four and nearly the championship game.

Very similar teams, that year and this year. Great point, Great Dayne, as always!

 

[Great Dayne]

Texas is unlikely to get to 13+ losses barring upsets.
They have all their tough games at home. They have the cupcakes on the road.

But if Texas flops and gets 13+ losses, they better have a win versus Kansas or Oklahoma to go with that Carolina win. I wont count them as a surefire NCAA team with that many losses.

Nobody should ever rest easy with 13+ losses and that goes for Wisconsin.
The committee HATES losses. It doesn't matter if they were all double overtime losses.

No team has ever gotten in with 15 losses unless they won an automatic bid.
some have had 14 losses, but only 1 time in the last 16 years.
No 13 loss team has made it in 4 years.

To get to 13 losses UW would have to completely stop what they have been doing or have a major injury and lose all the tough road games and one game they are favored to lose. I guess that's possible but not likely. The most likely is they will win the three they're supposed to and get one upset so they will have 11 loses and 12 wins in the BIG for 4th place.

 

[Great Dayne]

Very similar teams, that year and this year. Great point, Great Dayne, as always!

I never said they were similar teams, I was merely pointing out how they were written off at that point in the season also and everyone and their brother had them getting beat by Oregon in the second round. Just refreshing your memory.

 

[Hornsstampede2.0]

You forgot to add any losses from the Big 10 tournament.
If we are discussing at-large bids the assumption is that they don't win the Big 10.

They have 9 losses.
If they go (3-3) that gives them 12, plus another one in the Big 10.

That is why I suggested they MIGHT need to pick up another upset and go (4-2) instead.
It is not a requirement, but high total losses can set off the committee often.

The committee is weird. Sometimes they allow teams with high loss totals.
Sometimes they just go off on absolute hatred of losses. Sometimes they draw the line at even 12 losses.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

Wisconsin (and Ohio State for that matter) are kinda like South Florida from 2012. Horrible OOC but then went 12-6 in the Big East. Got literally no respect because of the terrible losses early in the year. They BARELY made it with a 12-6 record in conference as a 12 seed. And that was when the Big East was high and mighty. That goes to show you that conference record is never a guarantee.

 

[rmilia1]

Something to remember is that there will be teams make the dance this year that wouldn't normally get in. With Louisville and SMU being banned it makes an already weak bubble even weaker. A 13 loss team with great wins, a very good SOS and with a decent RPI should be a lock imo

 

[Great Dayne]

You forgot to add any losses from the Big 10 tournament.
If we are discussing at-large bids the assumption is that they don't win the Big 10.

They have 9 losses.
If they go (3-3) that gives them 12, plus another one in the Big 10.

That is why I suggested they MIGHT need to pick up another upset and go (4-2) instead.
It is not a requirement, but high total losses can set off the committee often.

The committee is weird. Sometimes they allow teams with high loss totals.
Sometimes they just go off on absolute hatred of losses. Sometimes they draw the line at even 12 losses.

I thought you were only talking about the regular season. The addition of the tournament is a whole new ball game. I think what could save UW if they end up with 13 L's is having a top 10 SOS (6th right now) and a bunch of wins vs tournament teams. UW is at 44 in RPI right now and if you look at 5 teams below and above them they all have less wins vs teams in the top 50 than UW and their SOS isn't even close to UW's.

 

[Great Dayne]

Wisconsin (and Ohio State for that matter) are kinda like South Florida from 2012. Horrible OOC but then went 12-6 in the Big East. Got literally no respect because of the terrible losses early in the year. They BARELY made it with a 12-6 record in conference as a 12 seed. And that was when the Big East was high and mighty. That goes to show you that conference record is never a guarantee.

Meh they still made it though.

 

[Great Dayne]

Something to remember is that there will be w Trans make the dance this year that wouldn't normally get in. With Louisville and SMU being banned it makes an already weak bubble even weaker. A 13 loss team with great wins, a very good SOS and with a decent RPI should be a lock imo

This was the post of the week for you. I didn't even know about the banned part.

 

[Great Dayne]

The Badgers desperately needed that win Saturday to get them on the good side of the bubble, but there's still a lot of work to be done.

Two of their next three games are @ Michigan State and @ Iowa. If the Badgers lose both of those games, they're right back on the outside looking in. They very likely NEED to at least split those two and sweep the remaining three unranked opponents (Illinois, Michigan, @ Minnesota) to solidify their spot in the tourney.

Don't forget about @ Purdue and the BIG tournament.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

Meh they still made it though.

Just checked. They were a last 4 in that year. Point is, if they would have gone 11-7, they probably wouldn't have gotten in. 11-7 probably had never missed in the Big East either.

I actually think Wisconsin gets in at 11-7 but not Ohio State. Wisconsin has a few impressive road wins while Ohio State has a few insane blowout losses. Their RPI is like 85 as we stand right now.

 

[Great Dayne]

Just checked. They were a last 4 in that year. Point is, if they would have gone 11-7, they probably wouldn't have gotten in. 11-7 probably had never missed in the Big East either.

I actually think Wisconsin gets in at 11-7 but not Ohio State. Wisconsin has a few impressive road wins while Ohio State has a few insane blowout losses. Their RPI is like 85 as we stand right now.

I concur with everything you've said. UW has a 44 RPI right now and even better in the BPI at 37. I think OSU would have to win all but one game or win the BIG tournament to make it. BIG has 8 that could make it or only 5.