Baalke's MO

[Crimsoncrew]

Posted this in another thread, but thought it might be worth its own:

Baalke really reinforced his early draft MO with this pick, IMO.

2010: OT Russell Okung drafted at #6. Baalke trades up to #11 to pick Anthony Davis.

2011: QB Andy Dalton drafted at #35. Baalke trades up to #36 to take QB Colin Kaepernick.

2013: S Kenny Vacarro drafted at #15. Baalke trades up to #18 to take S Eric Reid.

I've noted before that his MO is to target a player, and as soon as the player at that position generally regarded as being ahead of that guy is taken, he moves up and grabs his guy. I pointed that out when people were saying the Niners wanted Dalton but settled for Kap. I never believed that based on the Niners' move. Now, in the two earlier cases when we did this, it worked out quite well. So I'm cautiously optimistic. It's just tough to see us losing some value on the face of these moves.

 

[BINGO]

Recent history supports the fact that trading up usually pays dividends for us. This time around though (3rd time), will not be a charm.

 

[Flyingiguana]

i think reid will be a better version of whitner. at FS i'm not sure if he'll work out as well.

 

[BINGO]

i think reid will be a better version of whitner. at FS i'm not sure if he'll work out as well.

I agree with that. Reid at FS and Culliver at corner would be another episode of Beavis and Butthead out there. how awful would that be!!

He could be a good strong safety though. He's not known to be a hitter though. I hardly ever see him deliver a big hit. He's a tackling machine, who happens to have his share of missed tackles.

 

[optimist4720]

Posted this in another thread, but thought it might be worth its own:

Baalke really reinforced his early draft MO with this pick, IMO.

2010: OT Russell Okung drafted at #6. Baalke trades up to #11 to pick Anthony Davis.

2011: QB Andy Dalton drafted at #35. Baalke trades up to #36 to take QB Colin Kaepernick.

2013: S Kenny Vacarro drafted at #15. Baalke trades up to #18 to take S Eric Reid.

I've noted before that his MO is to target a player, and as soon as the player at that position generally regarded as being ahead of that guy is taken, he moves up and grabs his guy. I pointed that out when people were saying the Niners wanted Dalton but settled for Kap. I never believed that based on the Niners' move. Now, in the two earlier cases when we did this, it worked out quite well. So I'm cautiously optimistic. It's just tough to see us losing some value on the face of these moves.

Very Interesting observation...

 

[threelittleturds]

Yep, I noticed that too Crimson. Although it was kind of interesting that he didn't follow that last year. 3 WRs were picked before AJ. I guess he knew that he would be there at 30 still because he knew they were going out on a limb for the guy.

 

[deep9er]

I agree with that. Reid at FS and Culliver at corner would be another episode of Beavis and Butthead out there. how awful would that be!!

He could be a good strong safety though. He's not known to be a hitter though. I hardly ever see him deliver a big hit. He's a tackling machine, who happens to have his share of missed tackles.

but most opinions here noted the need for quality coverage? cause we've seen what quality passing teams might do to us.

so if Reid is better in coverage than run support, thats ok. as long as he make 'sure' tackles, it doesn't need to be big hits.

 

[deep9er]

Posted this in another thread, but thought it might be worth its own:

Baalke really reinforced his early draft MO with this pick, IMO.

2010: OT Russell Okung drafted at #6. Baalke trades up to #11 to pick Anthony Davis.

2011: QB Andy Dalton drafted at #35. Baalke trades up to #36 to take QB Colin Kaepernick.

2013: S Kenny Vacarro drafted at #15. Baalke trades up to #18 to take S Eric Reid.

I've noted before that his MO is to target a player, and as soon as the player at that position generally regarded as being ahead of that guy is taken, he moves up and grabs his guy. I pointed that out when people were saying the Niners wanted Dalton but settled for Kap. I never believed that based on the Niners' move. Now, in the two earlier cases when we did this, it worked out quite well. So I'm cautiously optimistic. It's just tough to see us losing some value on the face of these moves.

nice pattern but IMO coincidental. this implies two things off the bat:

1. Baalke can wait and then trade up to whatever spot he needs to? but you need a trading partner to agree.
2. The player we want won't get picked before the supposedly better player?

Okung would've gone HIGH in that draft no matter. Baalke was just protecting against someone sneaking in at 11 or 12?

Harbaugh wanted Kaep period, they didn't wait for Dalton to get picked? Baalke was trying to trade up even higher, but was only able to get to 36th (i think 36th?). weren't there four other QB's drafted before Dalton?

not knocking this cause good conversation, just saying IMO coincidental.

 

[-AC-]

I agree with that. Reid at FS and Culliver at corner would be another episode of Beavis and Butthead out there. how awful would that be!!

He could be a good strong safety though. He's not known to be a hitter though. I hardly ever see him deliver a big hit. He's a tackling machine, who happens to have his share of missed tackles.

What exactly do you not like about Reid (maybe you have already stated why you don't like him in another thread, but I missed it)?

 

[yossarian]

AJ Jenkins aside, I think Baalke gets the benefit of the doubt on this one.

 

[sjballer03]

AJ Jenkins aside, I think Baalke gets the benefit of the doubt on this one.

The AJ Jenkins pick has forever tainted Baalke in the minds of certain people here.

 

[mem49er]

i think reid will be a better version of whitner. at FS i'm not sure if he'll work out as well.

I was wondering earlier today if there's a chance we come back to get another safety in the 2nd. Most likely, I'd rather not but I think it's possible.

 

[BINGO]

What exactly do you not like about Reid (maybe you have already stated why you don't like him in another thread, but I missed it)?

AC, I'm just reading this now. Well, for the record let's make it clear, I don't hate him. I don't hate the type of player he is, I just hate the pick. Reid is not a game changer despite whatever you hear Baalke have come out to say about him. Hasn’t made a ton of plays on the ball over the past three seasons. The guy is above average at everything, but not is not considered great at anything. Not a player you'd trade up for. Is he really that much better than Cyprien who is still available in round two? He reminds me a lot of Laron Landry, not as muscular but I can see he has the frame to get that big. I want a FS with recovery speed, and loose hips (Kenny V for example) He does not have that. I grade Kenny V ahead of Reid and I wouldn't even trade up for Kenny had we had a chance to.

 

[deep9er]

AC, I'm just reading this now. Well, for the record let's make it clear, I don't hate him. I don't hate the type of player he is, I just hate the pick. Reid is not a game changer despite whatever you hear Baalke have come out to say about him. Hasn’t made a ton of plays on the ball over the past three seasons. The guy is above average at everything, but not is not considered great at anything. Not a player you'd trade up for. Is he really that much better than Cyprien who is still available in round two? He reminds me a lot of Laron Landry, not as muscular but I can see he has the frame to get that big. I want a FS with recovery speed, and loose hips (Kenny V for example) He does not have that. I grade Kenny V ahead of Reid and I wouldn't even trade up for Kenny had we had a chance to.

out of curiosity, was there another player you would have been ok with at 18th?

IF none, thats ok too, then would it be safe to say you didn't want the trade up to 18th?

 

[Jikkle]

Posted this in another thread, but thought it might be worth its own:

Baalke really reinforced his early draft MO with this pick, IMO.

2010: OT Russell Okung drafted at #6. Baalke trades up to #11 to pick Anthony Davis.

2011: QB Andy Dalton drafted at #35. Baalke trades up to #36 to take QB Colin Kaepernick.

2013: S Kenny Vacarro drafted at #15. Baalke trades up to #18 to take S Eric Reid.

I've noted before that his MO is to target a player, and as soon as the player at that position generally regarded as being ahead of that guy is taken, he moves up and grabs his guy. I pointed that out when people were saying the Niners wanted Dalton but settled for Kap. I never believed that based on the Niners' move. Now, in the two earlier cases when we did this, it worked out quite well. So I'm cautiously optimistic. It's just tough to see us losing some value on the face of these moves.

I believe it's more of a case that he'll move up if he feels the targeted player has a chance of not being there when they make a selection.

The 3 times we moved up he felt there was a realistic chance of someone taking the player before they got a chance to pick.

We didn't move up to take take Aldon Smith despite Von Miller being taken because he felt Aldon had a strong chance of being there at #7

We didn't move up for Jenkins because odds were heavy that nobody was going to take him before we could but he felt that he was going to be taken soon after so he didn't trade back either.

The philosophy doesn't bother me because if you have a firm belief a player is a pro bowl/all pro type of player you should go up and grab him if there is a realistic chance someone else might take him. If the guy has a 1st round grade than 18 is just as acceptable to me as 31. People complain about value at the time of the draft but if the guy becomes an all pro player they quickly forget that they felt the guy could've been had a few spots later.

Now it's debatable if the player we trade up for is worth it at them time such as Reid but I don't have a problem with the trade itself.

 

[MHSL82]

I thought this was related: 49ers' picks show pundits figuring them out - NFC West Blog

Maybe the picks that were made in 2012 were unpredictable because people acted like we were picking for our former QB, not Kaep. But if Jenkins and LMJ pans out, would that have been predictable if people were looking at it from the standpoint of choosing for a Kaep-led team? Not talking about where we picked them, just who.

(Obviously the "experts" couldn't have predicted this in 2011 since they didn't know we were getting Kaep, but Harbaalke knew, so our picks were geared that way, perhaps. 2012 was more fair for guessing that we were picking for Kaep's team.)

 

[Crimsoncrew]

AC, I'm just reading this now. Well, for the record let's make it clear, I don't hate him. I don't hate the type of player he is, I just hate the pick. Reid is not a game changer despite whatever you hear Baalke have come out to say about him. Hasn’t made a ton of plays on the ball over the past three seasons. The guy is above average at everything, but not is not considered great at anything. Not a player you'd trade up for. Is he really that much better than Cyprien who is still available in round two? He reminds me a lot of Laron Landry, not as muscular but I can see he has the frame to get that big. I want a FS with recovery speed, and loose hips (Kenny V for example) He does not have that. I grade Kenny V ahead of Reid and I wouldn't even trade up for Kenny had we had a chance to.

That's my concern with the pick. We could have had any other safety in the draft, and very possibly Reid, at 31 (not counting Vacarro who was already gone). Was Reid so much better than those guys that it was worth passing up on a player like Keenan Allen (or another of the four receivers that went between 74 and 80), Terron Armstead, or John Jenkins at 74? I know we have somewhat limited roster spots, but those guys are promising players at positions of need. Or we could have tried to move the pick into next year.

I'm not nearly up to speed enough on the draft this year to have a very strong feeling one way or the other on Reid, but I didn't want to move up for a safety this year. Too much talent in the mid-rounds of this draft.

 

[yossarian]

Well, I think we did pretty well in the mid rounds of the draft so far, so it's not like we lost out for Baalke to get the guy he wanted at safety. We had so much draft capital we could overpay I guess, and I haven't heard one expert so far say that SF did a bad job Thursday, Friday, or today.

 

[deep9er]

Well, I think we did pretty well in the mid rounds of the draft so far, so it's not like we lost out for Baalke to get the guy he wanted at safety. We had so much draft capital we could overpay I guess, and I haven't heard one expert so far say that SF did a bad job Thursday, Friday, or today.

questionable if we even overpayed? the rant (by far Bingo and Crimson above) is on whom we took more than the trade up.

the rant being there were other Safeties of similar value? to me, the 49ers clearly wanted Reid for our scheme, as such go get him.

 

[calsnowskier]

Posted this in another thread, but thought it might be worth its own:

Baalke really reinforced his early draft MO with this pick, IMO.

2010: OT Russell Okung drafted at #6. Baalke trades up to #11 to pick Anthony Davis.

2011: QB Andy Dalton drafted at #35. Baalke trades up to #36 to take QB Colin Kaepernick.

2013: S Kenny Vacarro drafted at #15. Baalke trades up to #18 to take S Eric Reid.

I've noted before that his MO is to target a player, and as soon as the player at that position generally regarded as being ahead of that guy is taken, he moves up and grabs his guy. I pointed that out when people were saying the Niners wanted Dalton but settled for Kap. I never believed that based on the Niners' move. Now, in the two earlier cases when we did this, it worked out quite well. So I'm cautiously optimistic. It's just tough to see us losing some value on the face of these moves.

Interesting idea.

However, it could be read a couple ways as well.

Say TB like Okung OR Davis. Once one of them were off the board, that triggers his trade activity instead of his focussing clearly on Reid and waiting for Vaccarro to be picked.

It has been reported, and substantiated by circumstantial evidence that they were, in fact, targeting Kaep in '11, though.

As for the lack of a trade in '12, as some stated already in this thread, just because they did not make a trade does not mean they did not try to make a trade. You assume that they targeted AJ from the start and sat where they were because they felt safe. Maybe they targeted someone else but were simply unable to do anything about it.