B1G OOC Breakdown, Notes & Predictions

[ericd7633]

I did this last year, and really enjoyed diving into each conference's OOC schedule, so I figured I'd do it again, with some extra notes, predictions and rankings. First up is the Big 10. Followed by the other P5 conferences. I'll post the schedule, followed by a breakdown, followed by my prediction on each game, followed by the top 5 OOC games for the conference, and then finally some notes about the P5 vs P5 games, that I could find.

So here's the B1G OOC schedules:

Indiana - @ FIU, vs. UVA, vs. Ball State
Maryland – vs. Texas (Landover, MD), @ Bowling Green, vs. Temple
Michigan - @ Notre Dame, vs. Western Michigan, vs. SMU
Michigan State – vs. Utah State, @ Arizona State, vs. Central Michigan
Ohio State – vs. Oregon State, vs. TCU (Arlington, TX), vs. Tulane
Penn State – vs. Appalachian State, @ Pittsburgh, vs. Kent State
Rutgers – vs. Texas State, @ Kansas, vs. Buffalo

Illinois – vs. Kent State, vs. Western Illinois, vs. South Florida (Chicago, IL)
Iowa – vs. Northern Illinois, vs. Iowa State, vs. Northern Iowa
Minnesota – vs. New Mexico State, vs. Fresno State, vs. Miami(Oh)
Nebraska – vs. Akron, vs. Colorado, vs. Troy
Northwestern – vs. Duke, vs. Akron, vs. Notre Dame
Purdue – vs. Eastern Michigan, vs. Missouri, vs. Boston College
Wisconsin – vs. Western Kentucky, vs. New Mexico, vs. BYU

No. of TRUE road games: 6
No. of games against P5 competition/ND/BYU: 15

Projected OOC Record: 38-4 (losses in BOLD)
Projected OOC Record against P5 competition/ND/BYU: 12-3

FTW SOS:

Ohio State, Northwestern and Purdue each play two P5 teams OOC.

LOL SOS:

Illinois and Minnesota fail to play a P5 team and ILoLinois also plays an FCS team.

Top 5 BIGGEST OOC Games:

#1. September 1st: Michigan @ Notre Dame – 7:30(NBC)
#2. September 15th: Ohio State vs. TCU (Arlington, TX) – 8:00(ABC)
#3. September 8th: Michigan State @ Arizona State – 10:45(ESPN)
#4. September 1st: Maryland vs. Texas (Landover, MD) – 12:00(FS1)
#5. November 3rd: Notre Dame @ Northwestern – TBA(TBA)

 

[ericd7633]

B1G OOC Notes:

*Indiana vs. UVA was scheduled in April of 2015. Indiana was coming off a 4-8 season in 2014. Virginia was coming off a 5-7 season in 2014.
*Maryland vs. Texas was scheduled in September of 2010. Maryland was coming off a 2-10 season in 2009. Texas was coming off a 13-1 season in which they played for the National Championship.
*Michigan vs. Notre Dame was scheduled in July of 2016. Michigan was coming off a 10-3 season in 2015. Notre Dame was coming off a 10-3 season in 2015.
*Michigan State vs. Arizona State was scheduled in May of 2014. Michigan State was coming off a 13-1 season in 2013. Arizona State was coming off a 10-4 season in 2013.
*Ohio State vs. TCU was originally scheduled as a home and home in October of 2011, and then was switched to a one time match up at a neutral site in Arlington. It was switched in April of 2017. Oregon State vs. Ohio State was scheduled in July of 2014. Ohio State was coming off a 12-2 year in 2013. Oregon State was coming off a 7-6 year in 2013.
*Penn State vs. Pittsburgh was originally scheduled as a home and home in 2011 but was switched two 2 home and homes in December of 2012. Penn State was coming off a 9-4 season in 2011. Pittsburgh was coming off a 6-7 season in 2011.
*Rutgers vs. Kansas was scheduled in August of 2012. Kansas was coming off a 2-10 season. Rutgers was coming off a 9-4 season while still playing in the Big East.
*Iowa vs. Iowa State is a regularly scheduled rivalry game.
*Nebraska vs. Colorado was scheduled in February of 2013. It was scheduled for two home and homes to be played in 2018, 2019 & 2023, 2024. Colorado was coming off a 1-11 season in 2012. Nebraska was coming off a 10-4 season in 2012.
*Purdue vs. Boston College was scheduled in January of 2016. Purdue was coming off a 2-10 season in 2015. Boston College was coming off a 3-9 season in 2015. Purdue vs. Missouri was scheduled in December of 2013. Purdue was coming off a 6-7 season in 2012. Missouri was coming off a 5-7 season in 2012.

 

[ericd7633]

This really sets up for the B1G to have a gaudy OOC record this season. And will put the conference in a good position to return to the CFP. The biggest reason the B1G missed out IMO was because 3 out of the 5 teams that finished ranked lost their marquee OOC match up(Ohio State vs. OU, NW vs. Duke, ND vs. Michigan State) And the two other teams that finished ranked didn't have a marquee win OOC. I think by far the biggest opportunity for the B1G is the Michigan vs. Notre Dame game. That game has the opportunity to help the perception of the league far more than any other game in a positive way.

Feel free to comment, add any input/analysis, and your own predictions.

 

[kburjr]

After starting 3-0 with an average 25 point MOV, Wisconsin falls 4 places in the rankings.

 

[7Samurai13]

After starting 3-0 with an average 25 point MOV, Wisconsin falls 4 places in the rankings.

When Western Kentucky is the best team you play in non conference games by a large margin you deserve to take a hit as compared to teams that played against programs that actually have pulse.

 

[Across The Field]

After starting 3-0 with an average 25 point MOV, Wisconsin falls 4 places in the rankings.

If your average MOV is 25 against that slate, you deserve to fall a lot further than 4 spots.

 

[Across The Field]

That Purdue/BC game is actually going to be fairly entertaining I think, perhaps could be two teams desperate to return to national relevancy that are getting closer.

 

[kburjr]

If your average MOV is 25 against that slate, you deserve to fall a lot further than 4 spots.

You mean you are OK with us running up the score? Please, someone send Chryst a tweet and tell him that ATF says to pile it on.

 

[Across The Field]

You mean you are OK with us running up the score? Please, someone send Chryst a tweet and tell him that ATF says to pile it on.

That's what you call running up the score? Ohio State is usually up by about 35-40 by halftime against those sorts of teams, and that's just by showing up basically.

 

[kburjr]

That's what you call running up the score? Ohio State is usually up by about 35-40 by halftime against those sorts of teams, and that's just by showing up basically.

We beat our 3 OOC last year by an average of 33+ pts per game and held the ball for the last quarter. Not enough. I guess we need to win by 50 to make it a convincing win. smh

 

[Across The Field]

We beat our 3 OOC last year by an average of 33+ pts per game and held the ball for the last quarter. Not enough. I guess we need to win by 50 to make it a convincing win. smh

What in the hell are you talking about? You said it would be 25 as if that was something impressive. Your OOC slate is hot trash.

 

[kburjr]

What in the hell are you talking about? You said it would be 25 as if that was something impressive. Your OOC slate is hot trash.

Yeah, it's trash, but how many points do we have to beat them by to make those wins convincing wins? All I ask.

 

[ericd7633]

That Purdue/BC game is actually going to be fairly entertaining I think, perhaps could be two teams desperate to return to national relevancy that are getting closer.

That almost cracked my top 5 OOC games. That game is going to be interesting. I like BC in a tight one because they return their whole O-line and a beast in Dillon at RB, while Purdue only returns 4 starters on defense. Has the potential to be really entertaining and high scoring. Also something to take note is that they go from playing Mizzou(spread out attack) to Boston College(ground and pound). Contrasting styles is something to make note of IMO.

 

[Across The Field]

Yeah, it's trash, but how many points do we have to beat them by to make those wins convincing wins? All I ask.

You acted as if 25 was impressive. It's not. Not if you want people to believe you're elite, at least.

 

[Across The Field]

That almost cracked my top 5 OOC games. That game is going to be interesting. I like BC in a tight one because they return their whole O-line and a beast in Dillon at RB, while Purdue only returns 4 starters on defense. Has the potential to be really entertaining and high scoring. Also something to take note is that they go from playing Mizzou(spread out attack) to Boston College(ground and pound). Contrasting styles is something to make note of IMO.

Yeah I would agree with that too. Purdue could actually be a pretty decent offense but defensively it's hard to say. Then again, that was their strength last year, and those same guys were not even top 100 in the nation the year before, so perhaps the coaches just have a good scheme. If they can manage to beat Missouri and BC, that would be pretty impressive for Brohm. BC is a great story too, though. Crazy to think that Dillon was michigan-bound for a while there.

 

[ericd7633]

Yeah I would agree with that too. Purdue could actually be a pretty decent offense but defensively it's hard to say. Then again, that was their strength last year, and those same guys were not even top 100 in the nation the year before, so perhaps the coaches just have a good scheme. If they can manage to beat Missouri and BC, that would be pretty impressive for Brohm. BC is a great story too, though. Crazy to think that Dillon was michigan-bound for a while there.

I'm pretty high on BC this year. If they didn't have the toughest possible schedule(getting Va. Tech and Miami cross division) I think they could realistically win 9 games this season. Still think it's possible even with that schedule. They have a ridiculously experienced team.

 

[Across The Field]

I'm pretty high on BC this year. If they didn't have the toughest possible schedule(getting Va. Tech and Miami cross division) I think they could realistically win 9 games this season. Still think it's possible even with that schedule. They have a ridiculously experienced team.

I wouldn't count that out at all. IMO, they have 6 guaranteed Ws on their schedule:

UMass
Holy Cross
@ Wake Forest
vs. Temple
vs. Louisville
vs. Syracuse

I'd favor them at Purdue, vs. Miami, and I wouldn't be shocked to see a W come from the games @ FSU, NCSU, and VT. Clemson really seems like the only (seemingly) surefire L, but then again I couldn't have imagined them losing to Syracuse last year.

 

[Deep Creek]

That almost cracked my top 5 OOC games. That game is going to be interesting. I like BC in a tight one because they return their whole O-line and a beast in Dillon at RB, while Purdue only returns 4 starters on defense. Has the potential to be really entertaining and high scoring. Also something to take note is that they go from playing Mizzou(spread out attack) to Boston College(ground and pound). Contrasting styles is something to make note of IMO.

I think in retrospect it will eric. I think it will be a much better game than Ohio State/TCU. TCU lost way too much and can't reload like a good blue blood program can. I even think it could get ugly. JMO

 

[ericd7633]

I wouldn't count that out at all. IMO, they have 6 guaranteed Ws on their schedule:

UMass
Holy Cross
@ Wake Forest
vs. Temple
vs. Louisville
vs. Syracuse

I'd favor them at Purdue, vs. Miami, and I wouldn't be shocked to see a W come from the games @ FSU, NCSU, and VT. Clemson really seems like the only (seemingly) surefire L, but then again I couldn't have imagined them losing to Syracuse last year.

Yeah, the two toughest games are probably Clemson at home, and at either FSU/Va. Tech. I'm pretty high on FSU this year, but they do have a lot to replace and VT has had an awful off season on top of everything they'd need to replace, could be a rebuilding year there. And most of those losses were on defense.

 

[ericd7633]

I think in retrospect it will eric. I think it will be a much better game than Ohio State/TCU. TCU lost way too much and can't reload like a good blue blood program can. I even think it could get ugly. JMO

You are probably correct on that point. I rated Ohio State vs. TCU as such, because on the longshot TCU pulls it off, it would have significant ramifications across the CFB landscape. One that no matter the outcome of Purdue vs. BC just wouldn't be able to achieve.