Aroldis Chapman traded to the NY Yankees

[chappee11]

I would think that Severino would have to be included.

You would start with Severino in a trade like that. Then you need a whole lot more. I still have a hard time seeing where the Marlins have any need for Brett Gardner and his contract. I still don't see any reason why they need to trade Fernandez now, anyway.

 

[DragonfromTO]

You would start with Severino in a trade like that. Then you need a whole lot more. I still have a hard time seeing where the Marlins have any need for Brett Gardner and his contract. I still don't see any reason why they need to trade Fernandez now, anyway.

Oh I know, I certainly wasn't saying that Severino would be the whole package. Just saying that I don't see any way that the Yanks could put together an appropriate package that didn't include him.

 

[chappee11]

Oh I know, I certainly wasn't saying that Severino would be the whole package. Just saying that I don't see any way that the Yanks could put together an appropriate package that didn't include him.

Definitely. I have to think that Fernandez is one of the 5 most valuable players/contracts in the game right now. I can only imagine the package needed to pry him away from the Marlins.

 

[navamind]

At least from a talent standpoint, the Yankees make out like bandits. I really don't understand what the fuck the Reds are doing. I'd be shocked if any of these guys were key contributors to the Reds in the future.

 

[redseat]

Guess the Reds really wanted to get rid of the guy... That's a bag of balls for him.

 

[purguy12]

Neil Walker hit 23 HR's in 2014 and slipped to just 16 this past season but he has more power than Murphy. Nobody should be crying for the Mets....they are fairly similar players. Except, like I said, Walker has a little pop in his bat.

Walker isnt bad but they lose a Big leader in that club house.

 

[purguy12]

I would think that Severino would have to be included.

I think it will be Judge. Severino isnt going any where.

 

[navamind]

Walker's probably a better defender than Murphy.

Walker probably won't approach his 2014 power numbers, but even then, he still has decent pop for an infielder. He has the 5th best wRC+ (115) among 2nd basemen since 2010 (just behind Pedroia (117)).

 

[DragonfromTO]

I think it will be Judge. Severino isnt going any where.

Then I don't think Fernandez will be wearing Yankee pinstripes. If it were me sitting at the GM's desk in Miami I'd tell you flat out that when you're trading for a guy like Jose Fernandez you're crazy to think that you can declare anyone "untouchable". And Judge just isn't a good enough prospect to headline a deal like this.

 

[purguy12]

Then I don't think Fernandez will be wearing Yankee pinstripes. If it were me sitting at the GM's desk in Miami I'd tell you flat out that when you're trading for a guy like Jose Fernandez you're crazy to think that you can declare anyone "untouchable". And Judge just isn't a good enough prospect to headline a deal like this.

He us good enough to start the deal and you throw in Gardner and NOva and Miller. Yes that is plenty. In my opinion I would go all in on Fernandez and Stanton deal. Judge, Bird, Sanchez, Gardner, Miller and Nova and 1 or 2 young single A prospects. Trust me I know it cleans our Farm but for these 2 guys I would. Both are young and can be Yankees for the next 10-15 years.

 

[DragonfromTO]

He us good enough to start the deal and you throw in Gardner and NOva and Miller. Yes that is plenty. In my opinion I would go all in on Fernandez and Stanton deal. Judge, Bird, Sanchez, Gardner, Miller and Nova and 1 or 2 young single A prospects. Trust me I know it cleans our Farm but for these 2 guys I would. Both are young and can be Yankees for the next 10-15 years.

Judge, Gardner, Nova and Miller? That's the offer for Jose Fernandez?



And so I guess that means that the offer for Stanton is Bird, Sanchez and "1 or 2 young single A prospects"?

I know you're a Yankee fan, but are you sure that you're feeling alright?

 

[purguy12]

Judge, Gardner, Nova and Miller? That's the offer for Jose Fernandez?



And so I guess that means that the offer for Stanton is Bird, Sanchez and "1 or 2 young single A prospects"?

I know you're a Yankee fan, but are you sure that you're feeling alright?

No Im just saying you can start a deal. Giving up 3 of our top 5 guys(farm) and 3 proven guys is a good start(2 allstars). That is a lot of talent for 2 top guys. It has nothing to do with being a Yankees fan its just logic. Marlins get 5 guys under team control for a long time and get 3 MLB Vets who they can turn around and trade Gardner and Miller at the deadline to add more prospects. Maybe Yankees throw in some money to help with those contracts. Yankees kill their farm but add 2 players that can be with them for a long time and build around those guys.

Overall its a good start.

 

[DragonfromTO]

No Im just saying you can start a deal. Giving up 3 of our top 5 guys(farm) and 3 proven guys is a good start(2 allstars). That is a lot of talent for 2 top guys. It has nothing to do with being a Yankees fan its just logic. Marlins get 5 guys under team control for a long time and get 3 MLB Vets who they can turn around and trade Gardner and Miller at the deadline to add more prospects. Maybe Yankees throw in some money to help with those contracts. Yankees kill their farm but add 2 players that can be with them for a long time and build around those guys.

Overall its a good start.

Fernandez is something that literally every team is looking for. How do the Marlins replace what they've lost using those pieces that they've received? You can sometimes get away with dealing quantity for quality, but when the quality you're trying to get is this high you need to send quality back, something that at least has some small chance of someday replacing what's being given up.

 

[purguy12]

Fernandez is something that literally every team is looking for. How do the Marlins replace what they've lost using those pieces that they've received? You can sometimes get away with dealing quantity for quality, but when the quality you're trying to get is this high you need to send quality back, something that at least has some small chance of someday replacing what's being given up.

We are, LOL We are giving them 3 to 4 of our Top Prospects, plus 2 Allstars and a decent rotation guy in Nova. Plus throw in some money and some top Single A guys. Its not like we are giving them crap. Again this is a starting point to see what the Marlins would ask for or want from our team. Only player I dont put in the trade is Severino because you want him to be paired with Fernandez as your young 1-2 punch.

 

[DragonfromTO]

We are, LOL We are giving them 3 to 4 of our Top Prospects, plus 2 Allstars and a decent rotation guy in Nova. Plus throw in some money and some top Single A guys. Its not like we are giving them crap. Again this is a starting point to see what the Marlins would ask for or want from our team. Only player I dont put in the trade is Severino because you want him to be paired with Fernandez as your young 1-2 punch.

Compared to what you're getting back, you are giving them crap.

Tell me what you think you're giving up. Not just a vague label like "some of our best prospects", tell me in descriptive terms what you think the Marlins are getting back here. What you think Judge is, what you think Sanchez is etc.

The thing is we have an example of a deal for this type of package (MVP candidate + Cy Young candidate) already, and with the Marlins even. Look at the package that the Tigers sent. They gave up two prospects ranked in the top 10 in BA's top 100 overall, and (from what I recall, it was a while ago) people still thought it wasn't enough. That's the type of prospect that needs to be included in a deal for either Fernandez or Stanton (let alone both), and Judge isn't that type of guy for me. He does have that kind of upside I suppose, but there are still too many concerns.

 

[obxyankeefan]

The thing is we have an example of a deal for this type of package (MVP candidate + Cy Young candidate) already, and with the Marlins even. Look at the package that the Tigers sent. They gave up two prospects ranked in the top 10 in BA's top 100 overall, and (from what I recall, it was a while ago) people still thought it wasn't enough. That's the type of prospect that needs to be included in a deal for either Fernandez or Stanton (let alone both), and Judge isn't that type of guy for me. He does have that kind of upside I suppose, but there are still too many concerns.

Dontrelle was washed up by the time Detroit made that trade. He posted a 10-15 record with a 5.17 ERA his last year in Miami. Than you look at who the Marlins got in return and the fact that the Marlins proposed the trade. Yes they can be taken advantage of. Maybin who was one of the hot up and comers in baseball that hasn't done that well. Eulogio De La Cruz, who the hell is that. Mike Rabelo was a backup catcher that didn't pan out. Andrew Miller was a first round draft pick that was suppose to be a future star starting pitcher, who finally reached his potential about 3 years later when he was made a reliever.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Dontrelle was washed up by the time Detroit made that trade. He posted a 10-15 record with a 5.17 ERA his last year in Miami. Than you look at who the Marlins got in return and the fact that the Marlins proposed the trade. Yes they can be taken advantage of. Maybin who was one of the hot up and comers in baseball that hasn't done that well. Eulogio De La Cruz, who the hell is that. Mike Rabelo was a backup catcher that didn't pan out. Andrew Miller was a first round draft pick that was suppose to be a future star starting pitcher, who finally reached his potential about 3 years later when he was made a reliever.

I hadn't looked at the data, was just going off of memory. But yeah you're right, Willis was no longer viewed as a Cy Young candidate type of pitcher when the deal was made. Doesn't that make my point even stronger though? The Marlins got the #6 and #10 prospects in all of baseball as part of a deal for a superstar batter and a guy who'd just put up an ERA+ of 84, but now they're going to deal a superstar batter and the best young pitcher in baseball and settle for a package centered around one prospect who's maaaaaybe top 25 (and probably more like top 50)?

Pointing out that the two top 10 prospects in the Cabrera/Willis deal ended up disappointing seems to only strengthen my point as well. Prospects aren't sure things, and the vast majority of them don't reach their upside. This becomes even more true the further down the list you go. So when you trade for Gary Sanchez you're not trading for (and the Yankees aren't giving up) a catcher for the next 6 years, you're trading for some small possibility of that. And when you trade for Aaron Judge it's probably more likely that you're trading for the next Chris Carter than the next Giancarlo Stanton.

If we want to evaluate a trade "in the moment" we have to only use the information that was available at the time. While there certainly may be some Yankee prospects in the proposed deal that end up having better careers than Maybin and Miller have had there are none that are as highly regarded and worth as much in trade as Maybin and Miller were at the time the Cabrera trade was made. Also, while De La Cruz didn't pan out BA had him #6 in the Tigers' system at the time of the trade.

 

[obxyankeefan]

I hadn't looked at the data, was just going off of memory. But yeah you're right, Willis was no longer viewed as a Cy Young candidate type of pitcher when the deal was made. Doesn't that make my point even stronger though? The Marlins got the #6 and #10 prospects in all of baseball as part of a deal for a superstar batter and a guy who'd just put up an ERA+ of 84, but now they're going to deal a superstar batter and the best young pitcher in baseball and settle for a package centered around one prospect who's maaaaaybe top 25 (and probably more like top 50)?

Pointing out that the two top 10 prospects in the Cabrera/Willis deal ended up disappointing seems to only strengthen my point as well. Prospects aren't sure things, and the vast majority of them don't reach their upside. This becomes even more true the further down the list you go. So when you trade for Gary Sanchez you're not trading for (and the Yankees aren't giving up) a catcher for the next 6 years, you're trading for some small possibility of that. And when you trade for Aaron Judge it's probably more likely that you're trading for the next Chris Carter than the next Giancarlo Stanton.

If we want to evaluate a trade "in the moment" we have to only use the information that was available at the time. While there certainly may be some Yankee prospects in the proposed deal that end up having better careers than Maybin and Miller have had there are none that are as highly regarded and worth as much in trade as Maybin and Miller were at the time the Cabrera trade was made.

I can agree with this. I had just moved to Detroit a year or so before this trade was made. A lot of the Tiger fans I talked to were upset over this trade, because of two things with Miggy at the time. One being he had a habit of showing up to camp overweight (hasn't happened in the D) and secondly Miggy was an unknown because he played for the Marlins.

I thought at the time that Drombroski had pulled a fast one on the Marlins.

 

[DragonfromTO]

I can agree with this. I had just moved to Detroit a year or so before this trade was made. A lot of the Tiger fans I talked to were upset over this trade, because of two things with Miggy at the time. One being he had a habit of showing up to camp overweight (hasn't happened in the D) and secondly Miggy was an unknown because he played for the Marlins.

I thought at the time that Drombroski had pulled a fast one on the Marlins.

Doesn't surprise me, fans tend to fall in love with their own prospects. They basically take the upside and turn it into the projection.