Andrew Luck for Patrick Willis trade?

[Mozart'sGhost]

Imac, I make perfect sense...

First the technological advances I'm referring to are things like the Combine which has only been around since the early '80's; advances in medicine to determine preliminary conditions, advances in equipment to prevent (or promote depending on your perspective) injuries; advances in coaching techniques; advances in nutrition, health & fitness; advances sports science measurement technology which can measure everything from how fast you release a football to how fast you take a dump.

Every player in football today has been in some way vetted, prepared or repaired by these advances. A 12 year starter from the 60's might not even make the 53 in today’s game. So, that is what I mean when I say that these technological advances that you are trying to sell as the reason we should trust scouts today as opposed to even 10 years ago doesn't hold water. Yes the methods are better but so are the players thus the error rate is similar.

I understand your point about facebook and ipads and how much easier it is to gather information and how much more and how quickly that information can be gathered. However, every bit of that information is validated the old fashioned way. Furthermore, I completely disagree that most busts are because of off field issues.

As for the line in the sand you are seeing something that simply isn't there. I chose that point because it provided an equal # of years on both sides of what I consider to be the most relevant era of football to this discussion.

Nicely articulated. I gotta have you write a speech for me some day.

 

[NinerSickness]

Back to the point of the thread:

Willis for the #1 overall pick straight up would be one of the biggest no brainers in the history of the NFL, and there's no way the Colts would do it unless the Niners threw in a CRAP load more. That's a fact.

 

[imac_21]

Imac, I make perfect sense...

First the technological advances I'm referring to are things like the Combine which has only been around since the early '80's; advances in medicine to determine preliminary conditions, advances in equipment to prevent (or promote depending on your perspective) injuries; advances in coaching techniques; advances in nutrition, health & fitness; advances sports science measurement technology which can measure everything from how fast you release a football to how fast you take a dump.

Every player in football today has been in some way vetted, prepared or repaired by these advances. A 12 year starter from the 60's might not even make the 53 in today’s game. So, that is what I mean when I say that these technological advances that you are trying to sell as the reason we should trust scouts today as opposed to even 10 years ago doesn't hold water. Yes the methods are better but so are the players thus the error rate is similar.

I understand your point about facebook and ipads and how much easier it is to gather information and how much more and how quickly that information can be gathered. However, every bit of that information is validated the old fashioned way. Furthermore, I completely disagree that most busts are because of off field issues.

As for the line in the sand you are seeing something that simply isn't there. I chose that point because it provided an equal # of years on both sides of what I consider to be the most relevant era of football to this discussion.

I would take all the advancements you reference above and argue that decreases the chance of a guy not working out to make the chance of a player busting even less than it was because it allows teams to thoroughly examine a player in ways they couldn't before. I don't see how an increased ability to detect and prevent injury makes it more likely a team will miss on a prospect. I see it as the opposite.

I'm also not arguing about scouting methods being BETTER. I'm saying there is more access to information. You can learn more about a guy with the new media.

With reference to busts, what do you feel is the most prominent cause of players not working out? When I say off-field I'm including coaching issues (such as what Smith went through), though that is admittedly a blurry line. I'm breaking it down to things beyond the control of the team that drafts him. Is it due to physical inadequacies, or character inadequacies?

 

[sayheykid1]

I said it's changed the odds.

If you think drafting Andew Luck to the 2012 49ers would be similar to drafting Alex Smith to the 2005 Niners, I don't know what to tell you.

Why is Alex Smith a bust?

Why is Jamarcus Russell a bust?

What about them made them busts?

I don't know if Luck will be better than Smith because I don't know how he will adapt to the NFL. I would draft him if it was possible but it isn't.

Jamarcus and Smith are buts because they didn't perform, Alex is doing much better and I am happy about it but he is still a first pick bust.
Carr and Palmer were drafted first in the new information age as well.

How do you feel about Kaepernick? He was pretty highly touted by scouts.

 

[NinerSickness]

Carr and Palmer were drafted first in the new information age as well.

In Palmer's defense he was never the same after his major knee injury, but he was doing great before it.

 

[imac_21]

I don't know if Luck will be better than Smith because I don't know how he will adapt to the NFL. I would draft him if it was possible but it isn't.

Jamarcus and Smith are buts because they didn't perform, Alex is doing much better and I am happy about it but he is still a first pick bust.
Carr and Palmer were drafted first in the new information age as well.

How do you feel about Kaepernick? He was pretty highly touted by scouts.

I'm not high enough on Kaepernick to avoid Luck if someone hands him to me for a massive discount.

Carr and Palmer are not from the information age. The internet has exploded in the last 5 years.

And Palmer has struggled because of a knee injury that derailed him. Nothing more.

 

[sayheykid1]

I'm not high enough on Kaepernick to avoid Luck if someone hands him to me for a massive discount.

Carr and Palmer are not from the information age. The internet has exploded in the last 5 years.

And Palmer has struggled because of a knee injury that derailed him. Nothing more.

The Internet exploded more than 10 years ago and teams had ways to find out about players getting in trouble for longer than that.

 

[imac_21]

The Internet exploded more than 10 years ago and teams had ways to find out about players getting in trouble for longer than that.

No, the internet existed more than 10 years ago. It exploded with social media and blogs that result in everyone airing out everything in the last 5.

What was the consensus on twitter about Carson Palmer?

How did all the draft sites and scouting services available online project David Carr?

 

[sayheykid1]

No, the internet existed more than 10 years ago. It exploded with social media and blogs that result in everyone airing out everything in the last 5.

What was the consensus on twitter about Carson Palmer?

How did all the draft sites and scouting services available online project David Carr?

I don't think the opinion of people on Twitter is much of a factor in NFL teams' scouting.

 

[polfnikufesin]

Would you do this trade with no strings attached no extra picks just straight up.

HELL NO!!!!! You should be traded just for asking that question! lol

 

[imac_21]

I don't think the opinion of people on Twitter is much of a factor in NFL teams' scouting.

I don't think you fully understand how twitter has affected society. It isn't about what the general public think. It's about having access directly to many of the players and their personal thoughts (Anyone remember Will Hill on Twitter last year?).

It also gives people (including NFL scouts and personnel men) access to all kinds of information instantly. Stuff that would often be kept relatively quiet.

And you forgot to address the stuff about the blogs and the myriad of draft sites out there right now. There are people who are not affiliated with NFL teams who are paid to study the prospects, not only off the field but as people off the field as well. All of a sudden teams have hundreds (thousands) of people working to learn things and publish it for everyone.

But you go ahead and pretend that the internet in 2011 is the same as it was in 2012.

 

[sayheykid1]

I don't think you fully understand how twitter has affected society. It isn't about what the general public think. It's about having access directly to many of the players and their personal thoughts (Anyone remember Will Hill on Twitter last year?).

It also gives people (including NFL scouts and personnel men) access to all kinds of information instantly. Stuff that would often be kept relatively quiet.

And you forgot to address the stuff about the blogs and the myriad of draft sites out there right now. There are people who are not affiliated with NFL teams who are paid to study the prospects, not only off the field but as people off the field as well. All of a sudden teams have hundreds (thousands) of people working to learn things and publish it for everyone.

But you go ahead and pretend that the internet in 2011 is the same as it was in 2012.

I think you are overrating social media in regards to teams scouting process and underrating what teams used to evaluate players 6-10 years ago.

Twitter is lame and all but useless IMO. Do you think David Carr would have tweeted his way out of being a high draft pick?

Bloggers and tweeters are for the most part as informed and intelligent as message board posters.

 

[Badger8843]

LUCK=OVERRATED

 

[Southern9er]

There's one critical discussion piece missing here that has not been mentioned as far as I saw. And it makes the whole thing much more palatable.

LARRY GRANT. He is playing tremendously and has filled in for PW without missing a beat in my opinion. With the way he has been playing he would be starting on any other team. Its his level of play and how he's filled in that would make me comfortable...but PW would not be a player I would want to face after that!

I would not like doing it, but I would take that trade...though the Colts would want more...and it would depend on what else they wanted.

Where's the next Aaron Rodgers hiding? A young trainee I work with played football with him...Tedford was looking to recruit a TE for Cal (who's now a Marine infantry officer)...When Tedford arrived to meet this TE, he asked, "Who's the QB throwing to him?"

"Aaron Rodgers"...

Harbaugh can find these guys.

 

[h0ckeysk83r]

LUCK=OVERRATED

Wont say that hes overrated, but like i have stated the dudes got a lot of pressure on his shoulders already. Time will tell and well see how he handles it.

 

[tomikcon1971]

Rather than worrying about who we trade for Luck, we need to hope St. Louis wins 1 more game or Indy loses next week. Otherwise St. Louis will have the #1 pick. I'd rather not have him in our division unless he's wearing our jersey.

 

[h0ckeysk83r]

Rather than worrying about who we trade for Luck, we need to hope St. Louis wins 1 more game or Indy loses next week. Otherwise St. Louis will have the #1 pick. I'd rather not have him in our division unless he's wearing our jersey.

Think the Rams would really pick him up? Keep hearing how they love bradford. But ya never know with that contract and injury situation.

 

[Mozart'sGhost]

There's one critical discussion piece missing here that has not been mentioned as far as I saw. And it makes the whole thing much more palatable.

LARRY GRANT. He is playing tremendously and has filled in for PW without missing a beat in my opinion. With the way he has been playing he would be starting on any other team. Its his level of play and how he's filled in that would make me comfortable...but PW would not be a player I would want to face after that!

I would not like doing it, but I would take that trade...though the Colts would want more...and it would depend on what else they wanted.

Where's the next Aaron Rodgers hiding? A young trainee I work with played football with him...Tedford was looking to recruit a TE for Cal (who's now a Marine infantry officer)...When Tedford arrived to meet this TE, he asked, "Who's the QB throwing to him?"

"Aaron Rodgers"...

Harbaugh can find these guys.

But he isn't, and he hasn't. The pass coverage skills are sorely lacking as is the speed to the ball. He is the main reason they exploited the midddle of the defense in Phoenix with the passes that turned into huge gains. He has filled in adequately but to say he is the equal of Willis is absurd.

 

[h0ckeysk83r]

Noticed last week Brooks got beat a couple times on wheel routes.

 

[Mozart'sGhost]

Rather than worrying about who we trade for Luck, we need to hope St. Louis wins 1 more game or Indy loses next week. Otherwise St. Louis will have the #1 pick. I'd rather not have him in our division unless he's wearing our jersey.

I'd prefer he not be in the 49ers' division but it would make a tough decision for the Rams. I think the Vikings are still in the hunt as well.