Andrew Luck for Patrick Willis trade?

[Mozart'sGhost]

I'm not high enough on Kaepernick to avoid Luck if someone hands him to me for a massive discount.

Carr and Palmer are not from the information age. The internet has exploded in the last 5 years.

And Palmer has struggled because of a knee injury that derailed him. Nothing more.

It's got to be more than that for him to have regressed this much.

 

[Southern9er]

But he isn't, and he hasn't. The pass coverage skills are sorely lacking as is the speed to the ball. He is the main reason they exploited the midddle of the defense in Phoenix with the passes that turned into huge gains. He has filled in adequately but to say he is the equal of Willis is absurd.

No its not...as usual you are absurd. Don't act like a woman, I didn't say he is the equal of Willis. I said he's filled in without missing a beat. Huge difference and you are missing the greater point. If we didn't have an acceptable back up option this is not something I would want to do. You give up Willis you still have a player that has played pretty damn well. We haven't lost much.

Willis being out was not the main reason we lost the game which is what you are saying. Fitz ate us up and it wasn't in the middle with Grant in coverage. Doucet had one significant play across the middle. And hope you are not thinking Grant should've been underneath helping Goldson on Fitz' TD...

 

[Mozart'sGhost]

No its not...as usual you are absurd. Don't act like a woman, I didn't say he is the equal of Willis. I said he's filled in without missing a beat. Huge difference and you are missing the greater point. If we didn't have an acceptable back up option this is not something I would want to do. You give up Willis you still have a player that has played pretty damn well. We haven't lost much.

Willis being out was not the main reason we lost the game which is what you are saying. Fitz ate us up and it wasn't in the middle with Grant in coverage. Doucet had one significant play across the middle. And hope you are not thinking Grant should've been underneath helping Goldson on Fitz' TD...

Now you got it. He is an acceptable back up; nothing more. Stop whining because I called out your ridiculous hyperbole where Grant is concerned. I was at the Phoenix game and you could see that Grant was kind of lost in coverage over the middle. He didn't recognize and get back fast enough to stop those passes over the middle that turned into long runs after the catch. They all went to his area of responsibility.

 

[imac_21]

I think you are overrating social media in regards to teams scouting process and underrating what teams used to evaluate players 6-10 years ago.

Twitter is lame and all but useless IMO. Do you think David Carr would have tweeted his way out of being a high draft pick?

Bloggers and tweeters are for the most part as informed and intelligent as message board posters.

You really don't get what I'm getting at. I'm not going to continue to try to explain it. If you haven't got it yet, you won't. If you think the internet hasn't changed in the last 10 years, you won't understand how it effects the scouting process.

 

[imac_21]

No its not...as usual you are absurd. Don't act like a woman, I didn't say he is the equal of Willis. I said he's filled in without missing a beat. Huge difference and you are missing the greater point. If we didn't have an acceptable back up option this is not something I would want to do. You give up Willis you still have a player that has played pretty damn well. We haven't lost much.

Willis being out was not the main reason we lost the game which is what you are saying. Fitz ate us up and it wasn't in the middle with Grant in coverage. Doucet had one significant play across the middle. And hope you are not thinking Grant should've been underneath helping Goldson on Fitz' TD...

What prevents us, if we were to trade Willis for Luck (hypothetically for all the psychos reading), from using a draft pick or some money in FA to add a new MLB that is an upgrade over Grant?

 

[tomikcon1971]

Think the Rams would really pick him up? Keep hearing how they love bradford. But ya never know with that contract and injury situation.

I think it would have to be a consideration.....

 

[deep9er]

Back to the point of the thread:

Willis for the #1 overall pick straight up would be one of the biggest no brainers in the history of the NFL, and there's no way the Colts would do it unless the Niners threw in a CRAP load more. That's a fact.

agree, its a no brainer and Willis wouldn't be enough.

those who remain steadfast to Willis won't change their minds, cause Willis is a 49er. understandably, its hard to let go.

the only reason to say no is "unproven", no one can attack Luck's potential so the ONLY thing left is unproven. there is what......a 1% chance he totally busts? so clinging to 1% and ignoring 99% he's a perenial Pro Bowler, does that make sense?

the NFL is a QB driven league.......by far, not MLB driven.

 

[MW49ers5]

1) I would take all the advancements you reference above and argue that decreases the chance of a guy not working out to make the chance of a player busting even less than it was because it allows teams to thoroughly examine a player in ways they couldn't before. I don't see how an increased ability to detect and prevent injury makes it more likely a team will miss on a prospect. I see it as the opposite.

2) I'm also not arguing about scouting methods being BETTER. I'm saying there is more access to information. You can learn more about a guy with the new media.

3) With reference to busts, what do you feel is the most prominent cause of players not working out? When I say off-field I'm including coaching issues (such as what Smith went through), though that is admittedly a blurry line. I'm breaking it down to things beyond the control of the team that drafts him. Is it due to physical inadequacies, or character inadequacies?

1) I agree 100%, that's my point. These advances should reduce the risk of a bust, but the question is do they? And, for the sake of this discussion what is a bust? Obviously we need a broad based definition as well as a specific definition to cover the cost of Willis.

To me, a broad based definition of a bust is a 1st round pick whom does not receive a 2nd contract with the team that drafted him. More specifically for Willis, however, we have to begin with where we end up this year as the benchmark for busting.

E.g., if we go 13-3 and lose in the NFC Championship Game with Harbaugh, Smith & Willis, then trade Willis for Luck, the minimum return for that investment has to be at least one SB - right? Anything less would mean we overpaid for Luck, would it not? And what percentage of drafted QB's ever play in a SB let alone win it?


2) Again I agree. As previously mentioned there is a wealth of information available about players and much of it is useful on some level. I get the sense, however, that you believe scouts, whom can have as many as 300-400 prospects in September are sitting in a hotel room scanning fb, tw, & yt.

While there is no question these sources are referenced if available, most of the information they use to assess the character and personality of a prospect is discovered through the more traditional means, such as observation, background checks and conversations with deans, counselors, coaches and others.

Furthermore, the objective with information is to gather the right amount of good information; just because information is available doesn't necessarily make it a good thing to acquire it; the process of information gathering comes with a fulcrum.

Regardless of how much or where information comes from it always funnels back to the risk/reward question that is eternally linked to the talent/character answer. "Is the reward of this guys talent worth the risk of his character?" We see this scenario play itself out nearly every year in the NFL. Remember, in America it is profit before principle. I'm not devaluing this information, I'm just presenting it in a more realistic perspective.

The scouting process, despite all the advances and available information, is still mostly about instincts. It is about one's ability to perceive the abilities of another and how well that person will fit into a particular organization and system. Are all the things you mentioned considered in the process? You bet, in detail.

Unfortunately, today, just as with 30 years ago, even after all 'T's are crossed and the 'I's are dotted, players still fail. No amount of scouting can determine a sure thing. The only ones with that great gift are the media and those that believe and re-sell the hype.


3) And finally, your question. IMO, players fail for different reasons at different positions. A WR will fail for different reasons than a RB just as a QB will fail for different reasons than a FS.

That said, however, I do believe their is a common thread among nearly all failures in the NFL and that is simply that most college players cannot process the game either or physically and mentally at the speed, power and strength of the NFL.

Throw in the emotional pressures of fame & fortune and it is pretty easy to understand why only a few make it to the NFL and even fewer make it in the NFL.

 

[Southern9er]

Now you got it. He is an acceptable back up; nothing more. Stop whining because I called out your ridiculous hyperbole where Grant is concerned. I was at the Phoenix game and you could see that Grant was kind of lost in coverage over the middle. He didn't recognize and get back fast enough to stop those passes over the middle that turned into long runs after the catch. They all went to his area of responsibility.

Wow...now I've got it!

I find it hard to believe that someone your age and with your "claimed" background could be such a troll...that is unless you are full of shit. PLEASE...lets discuss my "ridiculous hyperbole". Called out? You have massive comprehension problems and lack credibility when you want to analyze a game so please...just stop right there.

Let's name those "passes over the middle" that were his coverage responsibility. I'll be waiting...squid...Lord no wonder you get so beat up on these boards...

 

[Southern9er]

What prevents us, if we were to trade Willis for Luck (hypothetically for all the psychos reading), from using a draft pick or some money in FA to add a new MLB that is an upgrade over Grant?

Nothing other than sheer economics...and reality which you mentioned...

But as it stands and for the trade (hypothetically) I would be comfortable wth Grant...upgrade as part of the pipe dream, sure...but I think his performance has been enough to be comfortable with losing Willis and gaining Luck...overall.

 

[sayheykid1]

You really don't get what I'm getting at. I'm not going to continue to try to explain it. If you haven't got it yet, you won't. If you think the internet hasn't changed in the last 10 years, you won't understand how it effects the scouting process.

I understand how the Internet has changed over the past 10 years and I understand Social Media but I think you overrate their ability to decrease the chances of picking a QB that will end up a bust.

 

[NinerBlood]

there is no way on this planet I would EVER make this trade, just dumb

 

[Mozart'sGhost]

Wow...now I've got it!

I find it hard to believe that someone your age and with your "claimed" background could be such a troll...that is unless you are full of shit. PLEASE...lets discuss my "ridiculous hyperbole". Called out? You have massive comprehension problems and lack credibility when you want to analyze a game so please...just stop right there.

Let's name those "passes over the middle" that were his coverage responsibility. I'll be waiting...squid...Lord no wonder you get so beat up on these boards...

Stop your whining. the first TD was directly his man and he got beat. The second TD he did not get back to cover the middle and when Goldson came up and missed the tacjkle he was gone. The third, for some reason he was back in coverage on the left side of the secondary and the ball went over his head again.

 

[Southern9er]

Stop your whining. the first TD was directly his man and he got beat. The second TD he did not get back to cover the middle and when Goldson came up and missed the tacjkle he was gone. The third, for some reason he was back in coverage on the left side of the secondary and the ball went over his head again.

Wrong, right, wrong...and irrelevant...Are you suggesting he was supposed to be the underneath cover guy when Fitz got that TD? Give me more than "the first one...the second one...the third one"...This is like Tommy Boy trailing off and coming up a few digits short for a phone number...

 

[Mozart'sGhost]

Wrong, right, wrong...and irrelevant...Are you suggesting he was supposed to be the underneath cover guy when Fitz got that TD? Give me more than "the first one...the second one...the third one"...This is like Tommy Boy trailing off and coming up a few digits short for a phone number...

I'm not suggesting it, I'm flat out saying it.

 

[Southern9er]

I'm not suggesting it, I'm flat out saying it.

Thank you for clearing that up...you lost what miniscule credibility you had with that acknowledgement...when you step in it...you step in it BOLDLY.

 

[tzill]

Thank you for clearing that up...you lost what miniscule credibility you had with that acknowledgement...when you step in it...you step in it BOLDLY.

Something about arguing with an idiot and being drug down to his level only to lose comes to mind here.

 

[Mozart'sGhost]

Thank you for clearing that up...you lost what miniscule credibility you had with that acknowledgement...when you step in it...you step in it BOLDLY.

Someone take the shovel away from this hillbilly before he digs himself so deep he can't get out. It was clear to see. Maybe you don't have cable TV yet down there in Mississippi and your picture was snowy as you had your kid up on the roof turning the antenna.

 

[Southern9er]

Someone take the shovel away from this hillbilly before he digs himself so deep he can't get out. It was clear to see. Maybe you don't have cable TV yet down there in Mississippi and your picture was snowy as you had your kid up on the roof turning the antenna.

You're kinda like Bluto Blutarsky yelling "Who's with me!" and then running out the door by yourself...

These are your insults? Regressing to age 16? Hillbilly? Wow...and I was expecting the "your rubber and I'm glue..." defense, how disappointing.

Funny, I thought Goldson whiffed on Fitz' TD catch when he went for the pick, but it must've been my TV. So did Grant almost lose the Seahawks game for us? Help me with that one...

Grant's coverage skills aren't as good as Willis' I'm not arguing against that...Grant has filled in very well...apparently most writers agree with me. A Luck/Willis trade still leaves us with a good LB in Grant a guy that would start on most other teams. Elite QB vs an elite ILB??? I'll take the QB...

Re-Focused: 49ers @ Cardinals, Week 14 | ProFootballFocus.com

...funny nothing there about Grant getting torched...

Dashon Goldson: The weakest link of the Niners defense - Inside the 49ers

Grant ranked middle of the pack on the 9ers D...interestingly Goldson is dead last?

 

[Mozart'sGhost]

You're kinda like Bluto Blutarsky yelling "Who's with me!" and then running out the door by yourself...

These are your insults? Regressing to age 16? Hillbilly? Wow...and I was expecting the "your rubber and I'm glue..." defense, how disappointing.

Funny, I thought Goldson whiffed on Fitz' TD catch when he went for the pick, but it must've been my TV. So did Grant almost lose the Seahawks game for us? Help me with that one...

Grant's coverage skills aren't as good as Willis' I'm not arguing against that...Grant has filled in very well...apparently most writers agree with me. A Luck/Willis trade still leaves us with a good LB in Grant a guy that would start on most other teams. Elite QB vs an elite ILB??? I'll take the QB...

Re-Focused: 49ers @ Cardinals, Week 14 | ProFootballFocus.com

...funny nothing there about Grant getting torched...

Dashon Goldson: The weakest link of the Niners defense - Inside the 49ers

Grant ranked middle of the pack on the 9ers D...interestingly Goldson is dead last?

You talkin' about that Goldson guy who is going to the Pro Bowl? Is that the Goldson you are talking about? Ha ha. Put the shovel down Jim Bob. Quit while you at least can pretend to have some dignity left.