Alex Smiths future

[sayheykid1]

Yeah, 34 total. Again, not unfathomable considering his ability as a runner.

You said Kap isn't ready. Why isn't he ready? When will he be ready? How will we know if he's ready? When do we move on from Smith? Are we gonna wait year and year for his replacement in FA? Do we draft another QB in the first / early second range?

34 total puts him one behind the guy who was fifth in the league for TDs by a QB. That seems like a lot to ask.
I think he could use an offseason and some camps in the system and a chance to spot start or sub into games. The guy played in a gimmick offense in college.
I am OK with continuing to develop Kap.

 

[NinerSickness]

Also will people please stop saying that it's "bashing" or "pulling out the knives" to call Alex an average QB? He's RIGHT around the middle of the pack IMO. That's not an insult; that's objective. Heck; that would've been a COMPLIMENT last offseason (although I was saying he was an average QB then too; he just played below average last year).

 

[clyde_carbon]

He might be replaceable but I am not sure that Kapernick is ready to do so and going 8-8 is not an option.

I really can't believe I feel this way but I do. Does this team win with a QB that turns it over as often as he scores TDs?

Are you saying there's no way we go 8-8 with Alex Smith at QB?

We passed the ball 28 times per game this season. If you assume that Kap will throw INTs much as the leader in INTs in 2011 threw (Fitzpatrick), he'd throw an INT every ~25 attempts. That's about 16 or 17 INTs for the season. Eli Manning threw 16 INTs this year, and he was on a team that relied primarily on the pass.

 

[clyde_carbon]

34 total puts him one behind the guy who was fifth in the league for TDs by a QB. That seems like a lot to ask.
I think he could use an offseason and some camps in the system and a chance to spot start or sub into games. The guy played in a gimmick offense in college.
I am OK with continuing to develop Kap.

Cam Newton played in a "gimmicky" offense too, and he wasn't nearly as experienced a prospect as Kap.

I don't doubt that Harbaugh/Roman would put Kap in the best situation to succeed. At the very least they won't ask him to throw the ball much (like Alex Smith) and not make stupid mistakes. And at 1.3mil per year.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Not necessarily. 9 passing TDs and 6 rushing TDs. That would put him tied at 26 passing TDs with Mark Sanchez. Not unfathomable.

Why is it too early for Kap? If he can't manage the 29th passing attack then he shouldn't be in the NFL.

Wait a minute... you are saying that CK would score 15 more TDs with the exact same offense we ran this year? I thought you meant an offense tailored more to CKs abilities... I in no way think we would have scored 15 more TDs with this same offense with CK at the helm. I would expect - from a guy running his first NFL offense - 17 TD 16 INT 5 rushing TD 8 fumbles at best running the offense we ran this year with this schedule. Considering we are about to face a 1st Place schedule I think even those numbers would be pie-in-the-sky for a guy running his first NFL offense.

 

[sayheykid1]

Cam Newton played in a "gimmicky" offense too, and he wasn't nearly as experienced a prospect as Kap.

I don't doubt that Harbaugh/Roman would put Kap in the best situation to succeed. At the very least they won't ask him to throw the ball much (like Alex Smith) and not make stupid mistakes. And at 1.3mil per year.

Are you saying Kaepernick has a good chance to put up Cam Newton numbers next year? What if he doesn't and the team goes 8-8 and the Niners miss the playoffs?

 

[clyde_carbon]

Wait a minute... you are saying that CK would score 15 more TDs with the exact same offense we ran this year? I thought you meant an offense tailored more to CKs abilities... I in no way think we would have scored 15 more TDs with this same offense with CK at the helm. I would expect - from a guy running his first NFL offense - 17 TD 16 INT 5 rushing TD 8 fumbles at best running the offense we ran this year with this schedule. Considering we are about to face a 1st Place schedule I think even those numbers would be pie-in-the-sky for a guy running his first NFL offense.

Yes, I am. If you're gonna assume he's gonna have 10 more turnovers than Alex Smith in the same offense I'm reserving the right to assume he's gonna make 15 more plays tham Alex Smith, in the same offense.

 

[sayheykid1]

Are you saying there's no way we go 8-8 with Alex Smith at QB?

We passed the ball 28 times per game this season. If you assume that Kap will throw INTs much as the leader in INTs in 2011 threw (Fitzpatrick), he'd throw an INT every ~25 attempts. That's about 16 or 17 INTs for the season. Eli Manning threw 16 INTs this year, and he was on a team that relied primarily on the pass.

I am not sure how they will do with Smith but if they make a change and then go 8-8 it will be Baalke and Kaepernick's fault and the FO will get deservedly torched from going from one muffed punt from the SB to the same ole shitty Niners.

It is a year too soon IMO.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Are you saying Kaepernick has a good chance to put up Cam Newton numbers next year? What if he doesn't and the team goes 8-8 and the Niners miss the playoffs?

No, I'm saying that no one expected Newton to be as good as he has been after playing in a "gimmicky" offense in college. Citing that Kap played in a gimmicky offense in college is a reasonable argument, but that doesn't necessarily mean he can't quickly pick up an NFL playbook. Cam Newton did it without an offseason. I don't see why you're assuming Kap can't a year and a half removed.

 

[clyde_carbon]

I am not sure how they will do with Smith but if they make a change and then go 8-8 it will be Baalke and Kaepernick's fault and the FO will get deservedly torched from going from one muffed punt from the SB to the same ole shitty Niners.

It is a year too soon IMO.

The passing game isn't the reason we went 13-3 this year.

 

[sayheykid1]

Yes, I am. If you're gonna assume he's gonna have 10 more turnovers than Alex Smith in the same offense I'm reserving the right to assume he's gonna make 15 more plays tham Alex Smith, in the same offense.

Sixth most in the NFL... by a second year QB who played in the pistol in college and had one offseason working with the team under his belt.

That is a lot of pressure.

 

[sayheykid1]

No, I'm saying that no one expected Newton to be as good as he has been after playing in a "gimmicky" offense in college. Citing that Kap played in a gimmicky offense in college is a reasonable argument, but that doesn't necessarily mean he can't quickly pick up an NFL playbook. Cam Newton did it without an offseason. I don't see why you're assuming Kap can't a year and a half removed.

Because Cam Newton was a better college player.

 

[sayheykid1]

The passing game isn't the reason we went 13-3 this year.

Not turning the ball over was a big part of it.

If it doesn't work next year and the Niners struggle, this year doesn't mean jack for the FO.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Yes, I am. If you're gonna assume he's gonna have 10 more turnovers than Alex Smith in the same offense I'm reserving the right to assume he's gonna make 15 more plays tham Alex Smith, in the same offense.

Well I think that's over-the-top. I think there are 4 or 5 QBs that put up better numbers running the same exact offense but I do not think CK is one of those guys.

I think it's ridiculous to think that a guy in his 1st season would throw 26 TDs in 451 attempts - that's 5.76% almost as good as Stafford as good as Romo much better than Eli, Ryan, Rapethisburger...

Whereas an INT % of 3.5% (16/451) is about equal to Rivers, Newton, Vick, Sanchez...

 

[Flyingiguana]

And Kap will be asked to perform more? No. He'll be asked to be 31st in the league in passing attempts again.

Alex had a nice year by his standards, but let's stop acting like he's not replaceable.

how many qb's can perform the 4th quarter comebacks that smith did this year? it's like they expected him to flick a switch instantly in the 4th from game manager to montana and he got us to the nfc championship and 13 wins because of what he did late in games.

 

[Flyingiguana]

No, I'm saying that no one expected Newton to be as good as he has been after playing in a "gimmicky" offense in college. Citing that Kap played in a gimmicky offense in college is a reasonable argument, but that doesn't necessarily mean he can't quickly pick up an NFL playbook. Cam Newton did it without an offseason. I don't see why you're assuming Kap can't a year and a half removed.

i wouldn't expect any qb to do what newton did. very few qb's have his physical abilities and kap certainly doesn't.

 

[MHSL82]

That's ridiculous. 20 more turnovers would put Kap well above the #1 QB in turnovers - Ryan Fitzpatrick. Do you think that's even possible when we're averaging 28 attempts per game? The only team that passed LESS than us in the regular season was the Denver Broncos.

I can just as easily say what if he has 30 more TDs and be just as realistic as your comment.

I wouldn't quantify it. I would just say more turnovers and more TDs (assuming you're right). I'd give Kaep another year. It'll let Alex fail or stagnate and Kaep improve. People may say he's peaked, but they have less reason to think so besides the six previous years with bad coaching. Alex, with Harbaugh, should improve greatly with continuity (didn't believe this with Raye), so that if he stays the same, it'll mean something enough to put Kaep in 2013. If he falters, earlier. If Alex improves to the point he's still better than what the coaches perceive Kaep to be then great.

 

[EKmane]

I think it would be a huge mistake to just give Kaep the starting job. We have another qb on the roster that Harbaugh was really high on after seeing him have a very good preseason. I think Kaep and Tolzien should battle it out.

Save the Smith money to make a push for Mario Williams or Colston.

 

[Flyingiguana]

a first time starting qb could turn into such a waste of a good defense...

 

[MHSL82]

I think it would be a huge mistake to just give Kaep the starting job. We have another qb on the roster that Harbaugh was really high on after seeing him have a very good preseason. I think Kaep and Tolzien should battle it out.

Save the Smith money to make a push for Mario Williams or Colston.

I could only accept your premise if we were close to maxing out our cap. We had quite a bit of cap space this year and didn't use it. If we sign Alex to a big contract, max out our cap, and have no one again, I will agree that we are paying our players too much. But we can't just assume more money for Smith = less money used elsewhere when there's a chance a lot of it goes unused. (Yes, I copied and pasted from the other thread, not sure if we all read every thread... Plus, I know there are some that skip over my posts. Not you, lucky reader who has read this far.)