Alex Smiths future

[iHATEdodgers]

I think Kap can throw for more yards and account for more total TDs. He'll also be a bigger threat running. The guy has Cam Newton talent.

Let's say Kap has 10 more turnovers than Smith had this year. Is that difference worth 15 more total TDs?

I think he could account for more yards (not a big deal to me) and maybe more TDs but even at his best he would not give similar to Cam Newton 21 TDs 17 INTs 14 rushing TDs - that's a stretch to me. He might reach this but he is just as likely to go usual rookie on us and turn it over at an alarming rate and not score nearly as much as we'd hope for. That's my big aversion towards making a change risk vs reward isn't there for me. Plus I think we'll see more from Smith next season.

But if it was a sure thing he'd turn out like Newton I'm sold!

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

Clyde doesn't need to "watch" QBs to judge them. He just knows. The main factor is whether or not their name is Alex Smith.....if not, they can lead us to victory.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Alex Smith was extremly impressive at Utah. It's too bad we already know he's not that impressive in the NFL.

Haha! Touche! But I disagree I think he was pretty impressive this year. And I hope you're right and CK turns into Cam Newton but I think this is wishful thinking.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Smith was a better decision maker in college so it was a matter of getting that back.

Kap is starting from a lower place.

I watched a lot of Kap in college, did you?

He isn't going to be a long term answer. We'll just agree to disagree.

I don't care if Smith was a better decision maker in college. He was a HORRIBLE decision maker before Harbaugh got here. Smith changed, improved, and has evolved into a decent stopgap QB. If Smith can evolve and improve that late into his career, so can Kap, who's only 24.

I'm not saying Kap is the longterm answer. I'm not even saying that we're definitely gonna be better with him in the lineup next year. I'm just not willing to give Smith the contract that I THINK he and his agent will demand, and I don't think we'll be that much worse than the 29th passing offense with Kap under center.

I'm crazy, I know.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Haha! Touche! But I disagree I think he was pretty impressive this year. And I hope you're right and CK turns into Cam Newton but I think this is wishful thinking.

Lol...I'm not saying Kap = Newton. I'm saying he has that type of talent. I just don't think we need to completely ignore him. I think he deserves a chance if Smith asks too much.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

I don't care if Smith was a better decision maker in college. He was a HORRIBLE decision maker before Harbaugh got here. Smith changed, improved, and has evolved into a decent stopgap QB. If Smith can evolve and improve that late into his career, so can Kap, who's only 24.

I'm not saying Kap is the longterm answer. I'm not even saying that we're definitely gonna be better with him in the lineup next year. I'm just not willing to give Smith the contract that I THINK he and his agent will demand, and I don't think we'll be that much worse than the 29th passing offense with Kap under center.

I'm crazy, I know.

I think this is a fair statement. We might even improve on 29th (which is based on yards so I couldn't give a crap - plus I believe we should improve on this ranking with Smith and a new WR or two) I can see that point of view - but can you imagine if the Niners decide to go with CK and he flames out like most rookie/backups do? Can you imagine the backlash and the firings that would result in going from almost winning the NFC Championship game to flaming out and not even making the playoffs after switching from a solid QB to an completely unproven backup with potential?

I know you think the Niners are going to resign Smith and aren't really going to go with CK but just imagine that. Obviously to me it's not worth the switch at this point of all points.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Lol...I'm not saying Kap = Newton. I'm saying he has that type of talent. I just don't think we need to completely ignore him. I think he deserves a chance if Smith asks too much.

Fair enough!

 

[threelittleturds]

Clyde, you really think Alex Smith has the leverage to ask for 9mil per year? That seems way too high. His agent doesn't have anything to back up such a high number. No Pro Bowls, no Super Bowls, average stats. I think Smith and his agent will have a hard time getting more than the 3yr 20mil deal that Hasslebeck got a year ago.

Smith doesn't seem to be your typical free agent who is occupied by getting the highest offer, since the 49ers have already paid him somewhere near 30mil he's pretty comfortable financially.

 

[sayheykid1]

Clyde, you really think Alex Smith has the leverage to ask for 9mil per year? That seems way too high. His agent doesn't have anything to back up such a high number. No Pro Bowls, no Super Bowls, average stats. I think Smith and his agent will have a hard time getting more than the 3yr 20mil deal that Hasslebeck got a year ago.

Smith doesn't seem to be your typical free agent who is occupied by getting the highest offer, since the 49ers have already paid him somewhere near 30mil he's pretty comfortable financially.

100% Agree and I would bring him back for that. With that contract there would be no problem slipping Kap in if needed. I think it is too early to place all of the eggs in Kaepernick's basket.

If the Niners have a .500 season next year this year is meaningless.

 

[AU_Fever]

I hope that the Niners do not offer Alex Smith a three year contract. I'm thinking two years at $7 mil per year with incentives like winning a playoff game, being selected to the Pro Bowl, passing for over 3,500 yards and 25 TDs, etc. He needs capable receivers that are able to get separation.

 

[clyde_carbon]

I think this is a fair statement. We might even improve on 29th (which is based on yards so I couldn't give a crap - plus I believe we should improve on this ranking with Smith and a new WR or two) I can see that point of view - but can you imagine if the Niners decide to go with CK and he flames out like most rookie/backups do? Can you imagine the backlash and the firings that would result in going from almost winning the NFC Championship game to flaming out and not even making the playoffs after switching from a solid QB to an completely unproven backup with potential?

I know you think the Niners are going to resign Smith and aren't really going to go with CK but just imagine that. Obviously to me it's not worth the switch at this point of all points.

Maybe I have more faith in Harbaugh's development of QBs, his system, and Colin Kaepernick than you (and most people). I think the potential with Kap under center far outweighs the potential downfall in the passing game of losing Alex.

I agree though that Harbaugh will bring Smith back. At this point I'm not one to question him.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Clyde, you really think Alex Smith has the leverage to ask for 9mil per year? That seems way too high. His agent doesn't have anything to back up such a high number. No Pro Bowls, no Super Bowls, average stats. I think Smith and his agent will have a hard time getting more than the 3yr 20mil deal that Hasslebeck got a year ago.

Smith doesn't seem to be your typical free agent who is occupied by getting the highest offer, since the 49ers have already paid him somewhere near 30mil he's pretty comfortable financially.

Smith got ~6mil this season in total. You don't think his agent has leverage to ask for 9mil per after a 13-3 season in which we garnered the #2 seed and beat Drew Brees in the playoffs? He'll use Fitzpatrick's deal as a benchmark, but on a shorter time basis. If I were Alex's agent an offer I'd put on the table is 4 years, 36.4mil, 14.4mil guaranteed, with the same postseason incentives/escalators.

What would you say to that offer?

 

[threelittleturds]

Smith got ~6mil this season in total. You don't think his agent has leverage to ask for 9mil per after a 13-3 season in which we garnered the #2 seed and beat Drew Brees in the playoffs? He'll use Fitzpatrick's deal as a benchmark, but on a shorter time basis. If I were Alex's agent an offer I'd put on the table is 4 years, 36.4mil, 14.4mil guaranteed, with the same postseason incentives/escalators.

What would you say to that offer?

If I were Baalke? And his agent came to me with that offer? Well, I'm not really a good negotiator, but I'd say that the 13 win season was as much of a team effort as it was Smith's measured improvement from well publicized bust to game manager. And my response to the Saints game would be to discuss his failure to reproduce the same heroics at the end of the Giants game where he got something like 3 tries to get a FG.

Maybe I'm that far removed from NFL salaries, but I honestly can't imagine that Smith's agents could argue for 9mil when he isn't the star of the offense, and doesn't put up huge stats. I mean, thats more than what Aaron Rodgers gets paid... not by much, maybe half a mil more, but still more. I know he's underpaid, and that is between Rodgers and his agent... but I'd feel stupid asking for more money than the future MVP with Smith's resume.

 

[sayheykid1]

I think Kap can throw for more yards and account for more total TDs. He'll also be a bigger threat running. The guy has Cam Newton talent.

Let's say Kap has 10 more turnovers than Smith had this year. Is that difference worth 15 more total TDs?

What if he has 20 more turnovers?

 

[deep9er]

I didn't say Smith was stinking up the joint, and we can certainly do worse. But it's not like we had a passing game that was setting the world ablaze this year. We were 29th in the league. The Rams, Broncos, and Jags were the only teams worse than us in that department. Maybe I have more faith in Kaepernick than you and others do, but I do think we can be better than that with him in the lineup. Or at the very least replicate that production.

There's no question he'll probably make more mistakes than Smith. He's younger and much more inexperienced so that comes with the territory. But I also think he can make more plays. He has a monster arm and he'll be a threat to throw it deep ever play, making defenses think twice about stacking the box against our RBs. He's also more mobile and athletic than Smith and he'll make more plays that way.

Also, what kind of contract would you give Smith? He and his agent are likely gonna ask for a contract in the range of what Fitzpatrick got. Fitzpatrick got a 7 year, 62.195mil contract at 24mil guaranteed. That's an average of almost 9mil per year. Smith prolly won't ask for 7 years, but he'll want something in the range of 4-5 years for 35-45mil with 14-17.5mil guaranteed. Kap's contract averages 1.3mil per.

Is what Smith gives us over Kap worth that much more than what we're paying Kap?

Alex Smith was pretty consistent all season, played consistently at a 'good' level. yes, its for the 49ers and not 'good' NFL wide, but we only care about the 49ers.

he's PROVEN he can lead this team to 10+ wins and a play-off win. don't see why he can't do it another 2-3 years? not going so far as saying he'll get us into the SB, but its a reasonable chance.

if we switch to CK now, we might go 7-9 next season, 8-8 the next......"rally killer". CK might not pass Alex Smith's consistancy for two years, he's a 2nd round pick for a reason and you're placing WAY too much faith in him.

agree Alex is a stop gap but at least a very good one. we're in a tough spot now at QB and IMO, he's the lesser of the evils. if CK is this good, he'll pass Alex Smith without us forcing it.

 

[maniax]

I think it's more a matter of how much cap space do we have, and prioritizing who we re-sign.

For example, do you want Goldson and Kaepernick, or a rookie free safety and Alex?

Maybe for Alex's money ($7M) you could sign Goldson ($4M) + Brooks ($3M).

Do you want Goldson and Brooks, or Alex?


I vote again for keeping the D together. Our D got us to where we were this year.

 

[sayheykid1]

I think it's more a matter of how much cap space do we have, and prioritizing who we re-sign.

For example, do you want Goldson and Kaepernick, or a rookie free safety and Alex?

Maybe for Alex's money ($7M) you could sign Goldson ($4M) + Brooks ($3M).

Do you want Goldson and Brooks, or Alex?


I vote again for keeping the D together. Our D got us to where we were this year.

Do we have to choose?
I know the Niners were well under the cap in '11.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

It would be nice to trade Spencer and get something back instead of just cutting him. He's due 3 mill and change.

 

[Bracus]

After Harbaugh's presser today, I'm not really sure Alex will come back. Harbaugh made it clear he's not guaranteed the starting spot now and after what Harbaugh did with Alex, I'm sure he's done even more with the QB he actually chose in Kaep.

 

[sayheykid1]

Smith got ~6mil this season in total. You don't think his agent has leverage to ask for 9mil per after a 13-3 season in which we garnered the #2 seed and beat Drew Brees in the playoffs? He'll use Fitzpatrick's deal as a benchmark, but on a shorter time basis. If I were Alex's agent an offer I'd put on the table is 4 years, 36.4mil, 14.4mil guaranteed, with the same postseason incentives/escalators.

What would you say to that offer?

I would say:
We gave Alex six million to stay because we had a shit ton of unused cap space and we paid a premium for a one year deal and then I would ask him how that deal for Fitzpatrick worked out for the Bills.

I would offer 3/$20M