Alex Smith

[MHSL82]

Then he tucked his tail between his legs and came running back because the Dolphins decided he wasn't worth it.

Philbin suggests that Smith turned them down. I really think he wanted to be here and given our team, it's obvious here was his best chance. I understand that might just be him trying not to create a story when asked how that happened, but it's the only thing we've really heard from it, besides Alex joking that he had never been to Miami's beach and that was a good trip to see it. The initial reports that came out before he left was that the deal was no better than matched (they said it was 24/3 years). We can all assume what happened, I am sure that they didn't offer more and that it wasn't a "you're our starter" per se - I think there would have been competition. He may have been the stop gap for Tannehill. (This is before we knew how Tanehill would do.) He got a better deal here after that (not more money, but better terms + incentives) and here was his best option team-wise and he had connections here, so I wouldn't call that tucking his tail between his legs. He probably did the whole Miami thing because his agent knew Manning was down to us and Denver - he booked the flight before Manning announced his decision.

 

[yossarian]

yep, this board just needs a little opening to start attacking Alex Smith. as soon as he lost his starting position, all the good things he did - and he did do some good things - goes out the door.

this is pertaining to how extreme it gets, not saying you can't opine at all.
Alex Smith could've won the SB last year, but today's bashing would still be the same.

I'm behind Kaep starting, but what you said is exactly right. He didn't play lights out in the NFC Championship game, but if Williams could have cut his turnovers in half he would have had Super Bowl QB on his resume. As for the other comment "Tucking his tail between his legs", very unfair, why not go back to the team that he took to the NFC Championship the year before, as opposed to the Dolphins -- who won't even sniff a title game for a few years? I just don't get it, he's efficient and limited, and has a huge amount of character to stick with this team through Nolan, Singletary, and now this. And by all accounts he has been helping Kaep through what has to be the worst of all his humiliations on this team. Compare that to Matt Flynn who apparently hasn't been interested in helping Russell Wilson at all. Let's appreciate Smith, be grateful he has the inner strength to come back if Kaep implodes, and be grateful he'll do a good job and MOVE THE FUCK ON.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Hey Bem, I'm starting to like Tolzein as the backup for next year. I think he has potential. Smith has gotten the shaft from the Niners and should just move on.

No, he hasn't. He got the shaft early in his career, but since Harbaugh joined the team, Alex has been treated well. He was kept on as the starting QB despite an awful career - yes, there were very valid reasons for it, and after he was semi-benched by Sing he turned a corner, but his career as a whole had been miserable. He was able to work with a guy who has impeccable credentials in terms of developing QBs. And he played pretty well.

As much as people want to point fingers at Kyle Williams, though, Alex Smith was a big part of our loss against the Giants. He missed several crucial throws and failed to see open receivers. He couldn't do anything at all late in the game, other than a single pretty solid pass to Davis. Everyone points to the Arizona game, but seems to forget that he was downright bad two weeks earlier against the Giants, and did virtually nothing other than protect the ball and check down against the Hawks a week before the Arizona trip in a game that should not have been as close as it was. Smith is a perfectly competent QB. He has not shown he can be more. Losing your job because you keep your D and RBs in the game, but almost never take over games yourself, is not getting the shaft. It was inevitable Smith would lose his job at some point, if Kaepernick was developing. The concussion just bumped up the timeframe.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I haven't read the entire thread, but I don't agree with everyone who is saying that Smith doesn't have trade value. KC traded the 34th pick and handed a fat contract to Matt Cassel (and Vrabel), a guy who was obviously going to see the open market that year - unless you believe the Pats would have paid Cassel franchise QB money. Teams get desperate about QBs, and Smith has proven to be a solid starter. He doesn't have some of the mystery that less experienced guys like Cassel and Kolb did, but there will absolutely be a market for him. I think we can get a 2014 third, and I'd take that if Smith won't restructure.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

yep, this board just needs a little opening to start attacking Alex Smith. as soon as he lost his starting position, all the good things he did - and he did do some good things - goes out the door.

this is pertaining to how extreme it gets, not saying you can't opine at all.
Alex Smith could've won the SB last year, but today's bashing would still be the same.

That's BS, Deep. More of your theory that you're the only reasonable poster out there and everyone else just gives in to kneejerk reactions. Clyde hasn't liked Smith for years, and that isn't going to change. But let's not act as if the attitude of this board is that of many from the old ESPN board.

I supported Smith vocally for years, and I'd be happy to take him back as the starter if Kap were playing poorly. I don't think Kap is playing poorly. He's actually played much better than I expected, particularly in terms of his accuracy. He makes more mistakes than Smith, but he already has better pocket presence, his vision is at least as good, and the physical tools just aren't comparable. There will be growing pains, and he is not as good at recognizing defenses yet, but he can take us to the next level in a way that Smith can't - or at least hasn't to date. He can win games, as opposed to being on teams that win. The significance of that difference can't be overstated in today's NFL.

 

[Bemular]

I haven't read the entire thread, but I don't agree with everyone who is saying that Smith doesn't have trade value. KC traded the 34th pick and handed a fat contract to Matt Cassel (and Vrabel), a guy who was obviously going to see the open market that year - unless you believe the Pats would have paid Cassel franchise QB money. Teams get desperate about QBs, and Smith has proven to be a solid starter. He doesn't have some of the mystery that less experienced guys like Cassel and Kolb did, but there will absolutely be a market for him. I think we can get a 2014 third, and I'd take that if Smith won't restructure.

I think the biggest difference between Smith and those other guys is anticipated upside.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I think the biggest difference between Smith and those other guys is anticipated upside.

Absolutely. Those guys presumably hadn't hit their ceilings yet (though now it looks like they might have....). Smith has hit his or at least come very close to it, and that lowers his value somewhat. That said, those guys went for quite a lot. Effectively a very high second-rounder for Cassel and a pro bowl CB and mid-second round pick, in addition to the pretty big contracts those guys got. I don't think anyone anticipates getting that much for Smith. Additionally, Smith has less upside, but also less risk. And he's very affordable for a starting QB.

In a year without a great crop of college QBs, it's not too hard to imagine that a team with a coach/GM on the hot seat might be willing to make a move for a guy who can improve the caliber of the QB play right away, while grooming a youngster in the wings. That sort of "bridge" role is probably Alex's best shot at remaining a starter for awhile.

 

[imac_21]

Absolutely. Those guys presumably hadn't hit their ceilings yet (though now it looks like they might have....). Smith has hit his or at least come very close to it, and that lowers his value somewhat. That said, those guys went for quite a lot. Effectively a very high second-rounder for Cassel and a pro bowl CB and mid-second round pick, in addition to the pretty big contracts those guys got. Additionally, Smith has less upside, but also less risk. And he's very affordable for a starting QB.

In a year without a great crop of college QBs, it's not too hard to imagine that a team with a coach/GM on the hot seat might be willing to make a move for a guy who can improve the caliber of the QB play right away, while grooming a youngster in the wings. That sort of "bridge" role is probably Alex's best shot at remaining a starter for awhile.

Do you think the payoff for KC and Arizona with Cassel and Kolb would discourage teams from trading for a QB and putting him into a new system?

 

[Bemular]

Absolutely. Those guys presumably hadn't hit their ceilings yet (though now it looks like they might have....). Smith has hit his or at least come very close to it, and that lowers his value somewhat. That said, those guys went for quite a lot. Effectively a very high second-rounder for Cassel and a pro bowl CB and mid-second round pick, in addition to the pretty big contracts those guys got. I don't think anyone anticipates getting that much for Smith. Additionally, Smith has less upside, but also less risk. And he's very affordable for a starting QB.

In a year without a great crop of college QBs, it's not too hard to imagine that a team with a coach/GM on the hot seat might be willing to make a move for a guy who can improve the caliber of the QB play right away, while grooming a youngster in the wings. That sort of "bridge" role is probably Alex's best shot at remaining a starter for awhile.

Yes, they did go for a lot because they were expected to be starters developing to franchise QB's. Smith, at best, is a stop-gap, thus the question becomes, what would you give for a temporary starter?

In addition and IMO, Smith outside of Harbaugh's tutelage and with another new OC and new system goes back to being a 70-80 QB at least for the first year.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying someone won’t take the risk you are talking about here but that would be one helluva risk - huge in fact. To offer compensation as well as pick-up his contract? Huge. I know your examples offer empirical evidence to support your claim but I think we're talking apples and alligators here.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Do you think the payoff for KC and Arizona with Cassel and Kolb would discourage teams from trading for a QB and putting him into a new system?

In the abstract? Sure. That's probably part of why the market for Flynn wasn't more active. But teams will always be willing to overspend for QBs. And again, Smith doesn't have the same downside that those guys did.

 

[imac_21]

In the abstract? Sure. That's probably part of why the market for Flynn wasn't more active. But teams will always be willing to overspend for QBs. And again, Smith doesn't have the same downside that those guys did.

All true. Trading for him also means taking on his salary. Would teams looking for a placeholder at QB be willing to give up a draft pick(s) and take on his salary to guarantee Alex Smith as opposed to getting a guy that hits the market who may not be as talented, but will come cheaper.

 

[imac_21]

As I think about this, I don't think looking at the Cassel and Kolb deals as analogs for Smith is the right way to go about it. Teams trading for Smith are not looking what KC and AZ were looking for (plus Pioli had just move from NE to KC and his first real move was acquiring Cassel).

Smith will be more in the Kyle Orton to Denver, Jason Campbell to Oakland vein. Those are QBs who had experienced moderate individual success, spent time in their original city with the fans against them, were known commodities, approximately the same age, and to cap it off, 2005 draft picks.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Yes, they did go for a lot because they were expected to be starters developing to franchise QB's. Smith, at best, is a stop-gap, thus the question becomes, what would you give for a temporary starter?

In addition and IMO, Smith outside of Harbaugh's tutelage and with another new OC and new system goes back to being a 70-80 QB at least for the first year.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying someone won’t take the risk you are talking about here but that would be one helluva risk - huge in fact. To offer compensation as well as pick-up his contract? Huge. I know your examples offer empirical evidence to support your claim but I think we're talking apples and alligators here.

We'll see what happens, but I think a team in the right situation would be willing to offer something in the middle rounds.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

As I think about this, I don't think looking at the Cassel and Kolb deals as analogs for Smith is the right way to go about it. Teams trading for Smith are not looking what KC and AZ were looking for (plus Pioli had just move from NE to KC and his first real move was acquiring Cassel).

Smith will be more in the Kyle Orton to Denver, Jason Campbell to Oakland vein. Those are QBs who had experienced moderate individual success, spent time in their original city with the fans against them, were known commodities, approximately the same age, and to cap it off, 2005 draft picks.

Those guys are probably more apt comparisons, at least in some ways, except Smith over the last two years has been markedly better than those guys. Smith is a solid starter. That can't really be said of Campbell or Orton. They are borderline starters.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

All true. Trading for him also means taking on his salary. Would teams looking for a placeholder at QB be willing to give up a draft pick(s) and take on his salary to guarantee Alex Smith as opposed to getting a guy that hits the market who may not be as talented, but will come cheaper.

His salary isn't that high. It's slightly higher than what the Titans gave Hass with that placeholder role in mind, and Smith is eight years younger now than Hass was last year.

 

[Bemular]

In the abstract? Sure. That's probably part of why the market for Flynn wasn't more active. But teams will always be willing to overspend for QBs. And again, Smith doesn't have the same downside that those guys did.

I agree with the first part, teams will always overspend for QB's - but those are QB's with huge upside potential; after-all, they do it every year around April.

But I have to disagree entirely with the last sentence. Anyone thinking Smith will remain a 95-105 rated QB outside of Harbaugh/Roman is clinically insane.

 

[yossarian]

What's the deadline for Smith to be guaranteed his salary for next year? I can't see the 49ers keeping him past that deadline as a backup, so why would a team trade for him if maybe they could get him without paying a draft pick? That scenario may at least lower his trade value.

 

[imac_21]

Those guys are probably more apt comparisons, at least in some ways, except Smith over the last two years has been markedly better than those guys. Smith is a solid starter. That can't really be said of Campbell or Orton. They are borderline starters.

They are now. Orton's last year in Chicago he threw for 2900 yards, 18 TDs and 12 INTs in 15 games.

When he went to Denver the Smith comparison gets really interesting. His first year in Denver he threw for 3800 yards, 21 TDs and 12 INTs. His second year in Denver he threw for 3600 yards, 20 TDs and 9 INTs in just 13 games. His 3rd year in Denver he played 5 games before losing his job to Tebow. He'd thrown for nearly 1000 yards, 8 TDs and 7 INTs.

When he was on the trade market, no one acquired him. He ended up getting waived and claimed by the Chiefs.

Then he signed as a FA in Dallas as a backup.

He went from two solid seasons in Denver, to losing his job to a young backup, to being cut because no one would trade for him, to signing as a backup this year.

Jason Campbell's last year in Washington saw him throw for 3600 yards, 20 TDs and 15 INTs. The year before was 3200 yards, 13 TDs and 6 INTs.


I would say both those guys were pretty comparable to Alex Smith at this stage.

 

[Bemular]

What's the deadline for Smith to be guaranteed his salary for next year? I can't see the 49ers keeping him past that deadline as a backup, so why would a team trade for him if maybe they could get him without paying a draft pick? That scenario may at least lower his trade value.

4/1 (I believe) The trade scenario comes into play for a team (or teams) that wants him and believes he might receive many or higher offers in the open market.

 

[yossarian]

4/1 (I believe) The trade scenario comes into play for a team (or teams) that wants him and believes he might receive many or higher offers in the open market.

I think last year was the height of his market, he had led this team to the NFC Championship, 13-3 record, and his one market flirtation was with the Dolphins. What teams out there need a qb that run an efficient offense that emphasizes ground control with a good rb?