Alex Smith

[Bemular]

We'll see what happens, but I think a team in the right situation would be willing to offer something in the middle rounds.

And by right you mean extremely desperate - anything can happen

 

[Bemular]

I think last year was the height of his market, he had led this team to the NFC Championship, 13-3 record, and his one market flirtation was with the Dolphins. What teams out there need a qb that run an efficient offense that emphasizes ground control with a good rb?

Teams in which Alex can perform from the first day in training camp? One

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I agree with the first part, teams will always overspend for QB's - but those are QB's with huge upside potential; after-all, they do it every year around April.

But I have to disagree entirely with the last sentence. Anyone thinking Smith will remain a 95-105 rated QB outside of Harbaugh/Roman is clinically insane.

It depends what another team asks of him. If they ask him to carry the offense, his rating will likely fall. If they ask him to do more of the same, it will probably fall a bit, but Smith's style of play lends itself to a high passer rating: high completion % and low INTs. That's not likely to change. Once he reclaimed the starting job in 2010, his games came in at 131, 66, 91, and 108. That's without Harbaugh/Roman. Not saying his play wouldn't decline somewhat, just that his QB rating might still be relatively high.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

And by right you mean extremely desperate - anything can happen

Yes. As said, it would probably take a team with a coach on the hot seat that needs immediate improvement at QB.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

They are now. Orton's last year in Chicago he threw for 2900 yards, 18 TDs and 12 INTs in 15 games.

When he went to Denver the Smith comparison gets really interesting. His first year in Denver he threw for 3800 yards, 21 TDs and 12 INTs. His second year in Denver he threw for 3600 yards, 20 TDs and 9 INTs in just 13 games. His 3rd year in Denver he played 5 games before losing his job to Tebow. He'd thrown for nearly 1000 yards, 8 TDs and 7 INTs.

When he was on the trade market, no one acquired him. He ended up getting waived and claimed by the Chiefs.

Then he signed as a FA in Dallas as a backup.

He went from two solid seasons in Denver, to losing his job to a young backup, to being cut because no one would trade for him, to signing as a backup this year.

Jason Campbell's last year in Washington saw him throw for 3600 yards, 20 TDs and 15 INTs. The year before was 3200 yards, 13 TDs and 6 INTs.


I would say both those guys were pretty comparable to Alex Smith at this stage.

Those numbers don't capture the most significant number: wins. Obviousyl Smith has a ton of support via the D and the ground game. But he's also a winning QB over the past two years. The same can't be said for Orton, who never even hit .500 in a season with Denver. It's entirely possible the niners will just waive him, but I think it's equally likely we get something for him.

 

[imac_21]

Those numbers don't capture the most significant number: wins. Obviousyl Smith has a ton of support via the D and the ground game. But he's also a winning QB over the past two years. The same can't be said for Orton, who never even hit .500 in a season with Denver. It's entirely possible the niners will just waive him, but I think it's equally likely we get something for him.

Wins are the most important stat for a QB? Come on. How did Orton do in Chicago, before he went to Denver?

Russell Wilson or Drew Brees, who ya got?

 

[MHSL82]

I think last year was the height of his market, he had led this team to the NFC Championship, 13-3 record, and his one market flirtation was with the Dolphins. What teams out there need a qb that run an efficient offense that emphasizes ground control with a good rb?

I think Smith wasn't good enough to try to outbid SF, but I do think the fact that everybody and their dog knew that Smith was loyal, had the best situation here, and was going to resign here if not for Manning, made the idea of making an offer for Smith, not waiting for Manning's decision, etc. not worth it. I think it had an effect on the decision to go after Smith. There also could have been informal inquisitions to his availability to his agent that never went anywhere.

So no, Smith wasn't the prospect that anyone would say, let's convince him to come here, but I think his appearance to come back had an effect. This year when it's clear that he's available and willing, we'll see - he didn't exactly become a worse player than last year just because we found someone we thought was better. Last year, people knew of his limitations - those limitations are the same this year, so that would leave availability and willingness to look around the only changing factor. If he gets no action this year, I will assume those limitations are the reason.

 

[Bemular]

It depends what another team asks of him. If they ask him to carry the offense, his rating will likely fall. If they ask him to do more of the same, it will probably fall a bit, but Smith's style of play lends itself to a high passer rating: high completion % and low INTs. That's not likely to change. Once he reclaimed the starting job in 2010, his games came in at 131, 66, 91, and 108. That's without Harbaugh/Roman. Not saying his play wouldn't decline somewhat, just that his QB rating might still be relatively high.

Haha! I'll assume you know that I know how bogus this argument is and thus I won't waste either yours or my time trashing it. Perhaps you forgot who you were talking with.

Look, Crimson as I have already stated, anything is possible - However, as to what is probable - well, that would include neither being waived nor being traded. I expect he will be released just prior to four-one after he & his agent reject a back-up offer.

 

[wartyOne]

Those numbers don't capture the most significant number: wins. Obviousyl Smith has a ton of support via the D and the ground game. But he's also a winning QB over the past two years. The same can't be said for Orton, who never even hit .500 in a season with Denver. It's entirely possible the niners will just waive him, but I think it's equally likely we get something for him.

No chance.

That empty bag of chips is looking pretty good right now.

Based on his contract status, and the knowledge that he's not going to be retained, why would any NFL GM throw away draft picks on a guy who will be cut before the draft? I don't see it.

 

[Kinzu]

No chance.

That empty bag of chips is looking pretty good right now.

Based on his contract status, and the knowledge that he's not going to be retained, why would any NFL GM throw away draft picks on a guy who will be cut before the draft? I don't see it.

Insurance that you get him and keep him at the current contract? You think Smith is going to sign a deal that lets his new team have the ability to cut him so easily in the offseason again?

The team that trades for him would get at least a 1 year stop gap QB for less than 10m a year that they could just cut going into year 2 for next to nothing.

Don't know that any will trade for him. There are benefits to doing so though if the price is right.

 

[Bemular]

Insurance that you get him and keep him at the current contract? You think Smith is going to sign a deal that lets his new team have the ability to cut him so easily in the offseason again?

The team that trades for him would get at least a 1 year stop gap QB for less than 10m a year that they could just cut going into year 2 for next to nothing.

Don't know that any will trade for him. There are benefits to doing so though if the price is right.

Do you believe Smith possesses the leverage to set the conditions of his contract?

 

[clyde_carbon]

Insurance that you get him and keep him at the current contract? You think Smith is going to sign a deal that lets his new team have the ability to cut him so easily in the offseason again?

The team that trades for him would get at least a 1 year stop gap QB for less than 10m a year that they could just cut going into year 2 for next to nothing.

Don't know that any will trade for him. There are benefits to doing so though if the price is right.

Then he's not gonna be signing a deal. With any team.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Haha! I'll assume you know that I know how bogus this argument is and thus I won't waste either yours or my time trashing it. Perhaps you forgot who you were talking with.

Look, Crimson as I have already stated, anything is possible - However, as to what is probable - well, that would include neither being waived nor being traded. I expect he will be released just prior to four-one after he & his agent reject a back-up offer.

I don't see how the argument that Smith's style of play favors a solid passer rating is bogus, or pointing out that he posted good passer ratings - if not great results - at the end of 2010. I would be very surprised if he dropped into the mid-80s, for instance, though I wouldn't expect him to remain in the 100s.

As for what happens, as we've both said, we will see.