Series Thread: ALDS: Mariners vs Stros

[Cedrique]

It's even worse than that. Ray throws a shit ton of fastballs. Alvarez was 2nd best hitter in baseball on fast balls.

And Ray has sucked his last 5 starts plus post season. And pitched Saturday(poorly) and never comes out in relief.

Sadly, appears he didnt know anything on the situation. Real bummer.

You may be right about the pitch selection thing with the fastballs but I guarantee he had the information on the lefty/lefty matchup and when I look at those same stats I would say he was right about that part of the matchup. As great as Alvarado is against lefties, he's even better against righties. (more power). And Ray is clearly better against lefties. Also, Ray gives up a lot of homeruns, but not against lefties. (4 in 146 plate appearances this year).

Not saying he made the right choice but I wouldn't say he didn't know anything.

But that's what is great about playoff baseball. During the regular season no one even gets into these discussions.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

You may be right about the pitch selection thing with the fastballs but I guarantee he had the information on the lefty/lefty matchup and when I look at those same stats I would say he was right about that part of the matchup. As great as Alvarado is against lefties, he's even better against righties. (more power). And Ray is clearly better against lefties. Also, Ray gives up a lot of homeruns, but not against lefties. (4 in 146 plate appearances this year).


Not saying he made the right choice but I wouldn't say he didn't know anything.

But that's what is great about playoff baseball. During the regular season no one even gets into these discussions.

Thats extremely miniscule if even true.

Yes, he does have "more power" vs righties but its not by a lot. This year, or especially his career where the gap is lower.

He also hits for a higher average against lefties by a sizeable margin. So in that scenario you are bringing in a guy that gives Alvarez a even better chance at getting a hit, while slightly lower odds of hitting for power. And in that scenario it has Ray facing Bregman should the .300 masher get on base.

Basically if you dont like Sewald vs Alvarez. You might as well just walk Alvarez and take your chances vs Bregman with Sewald in a do or die bases loaded situation. Because Ray vs Alvarez and Bregman was literal nightmare fuel.

Also, yes Ray is better against lefites but hes not some elite lefty reliever specialist who is impossible to hit vs lefties. And his "edge" is negated when the guy hes facing loves lefties and loves Rays primary pitch.

Every thing about that move was a good match up for Alvarez. Nothing aside from left on left made it optimal for Ray. Whether its pitching in a role he doesnt do, whether its him being bad recently, whether its his home run propensity in a spot where youre clearly trying not to give up a homer, whether its his fastball which doesnt play.

For even added measure. Ray was terrible vs the Astros this year. And in a small sample size Alvarez was 1/3 with 2walks on him.

Nothing said, Robbie Ray please come in last minute and get out a top 5 hitter in baseball soemthing youve never ever done before.

 

[Cedrique]

Thats extremely miniscule if even true.

Yes, he does have "more power" vs righties but its not by a lot. This year, or especially his career where the gap is lower.

He also hits for a higher average against lefties by a sizeable margin. So in that scenario you are bringing in a guy that gives Alvarez a even better chance at getting a hit, while slightly lower odds of hitting for power. And in that scenario it has Ray facing Bregman should the .300 masher get on base.

Basically if you dont like Sewald vs Alvarez. You might as well just walk Alvarez and take your chances vs Bregman with Sewald in a do or die bases loaded situation. Because Ray vs Alvarez and Bregman was literal nightmare fuel.

Also, yes Ray is better against lefites but hes not some elite lefty reliever specialist who is impossible to hit vs lefties. And his "edge" is negated when the guy hes facing loves lefties and loves Rays primary pitch.

Every thing about that move was a good match up for Alvarez. Nothing aside from left on left made it optimal for Ray. Whether its pitching in a role he doesnt do, whether its him being bad recently, whether its his home run propensity in a spot where youre clearly trying not to give up a homer, whether its his fastball which doesnt play.

For even added measure. Ray was terrible vs the Astros this year. And in a small sample size Alvarez was 1/3 with 2walks on him.

Nothing said, Robbie Ray please come in last minute and get out a top 5 hitter in baseball soemthing youve never ever done before.

Yeah, I'm not saying you're wrong and now that you mention the 3 batter rule using Ray makes less sense because he is forced to give Alvarez something to hit so he doesn't load the bases for Bregman. But as far as the lefty/righty thing .303 vs .292 isn't a sizeable margin to me. Batting average has a decent amount of variance anyway due to the way a ball bounces, the fielders, etc. So 11 points over only 1500 or so at bats isn't significant. I think Alvarez might be the best left handed hitter in the game right now but if you look at 100 plus years of baseball stats it would be extremely unusual if by the end of his career Alvarez proved to be a better hitter against lefties.
I know you didn't say this but if anyone is thinking that throwing a bunch of righties against Alvarez is a good idea to neutralize him, good luck with that.

But with all the information you gave, I agree it probably wasn't the best decision to bring in Ray.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

Sewald would have lost it as well, if he pitched to Alvarez, and probably even if he walked him. Best case was to bring Munoz (who wasn't exactly sharp in the 8th) back out for the 9th and have Sewald ready.
The fact that he brought Ray in for Lefty-Lefty and Yordan hit .320 off of lefties this year AND Ray is a HR-Pinata makes me think he didn't know the numbers and just assumed Lefty-Lefty was the right thing.

Well, Sewald could have gotten the out, we’ll never know … But I don’t like the move because it takes confidence away from your closer, like you don’t trust him to get it done.. Also like you said Ray gives you way too many hits lately …

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Yeah, I'm not saying you're wrong and now that you mention the 3 batter rule using Ray makes less sense because he is forced to give Alvarez something to hit so he doesn't load the bases for Bregman. But as far as the lefty/righty thing .303 vs .292 isn't a sizeable margin to me. Batting average has a decent amount of variance anyway due to the way a ball bounces, the fielders, etc. So 11 points over only 1500 or so at bats isn't significant. I think Alvarez might be the best left handed hitter in the game right now but if you look at 100 plus years of baseball stats it would be extremely unusual if by the end of his career Alvarez proved to be a better hitter against lefties.
I know you didn't say this but if anyone is thinking that throwing a bunch of righties against Alvarez is a good idea to neutralize him, good luck with that.

But with all the information you gave, I agree it probably wasn't the best decision to bring in Ray.

Youre right, just throwing righties at him wouldnt be a great idea either. Unfortunately though they dont have a lefty reliever specialist. But he did have a closer in the game in his role. Also here is a interesting tidbit.

Vs Lefties this year

Ray: .212/.260/.387

Sewald: .167/.245/.344

So yeah, there is a solid chance Alvare is hurting anyone you toss out there even a fully warmed up and prepared Luis Castillo. But Sewald was the better of the two options. Because Ray was simply a bad option.

 

[Cedrique]

Youre right, just throwing righties at him wouldnt be a great idea either. Unfortunately though they dont have a lefty reliever specialist. But he did have a closer in the game in his role. Also here is a interesting tidbit.

Vs Lefties this year

Ray: .212/.260/.387

Sewald: .167/.245/.344

So yeah, there is a solid chance Alvare is hurting anyone you toss out there even a fully warmed up and prepared Luis Castillo. But Sewald was the better of the two options. Because Ray was simply a bad option.

Yeah I think leaving the closer in there was the move. I did read somewhere that they had discussed using Ray in relief ahead of time but that probably should have been reserved for some emergency in a 15 inning game or something. Using him where they did seemed like a little bit of panicking.

 

[Cedrique]

Youre right, just throwing righties at him wouldnt be a great idea either. Unfortunately though they dont have a lefty reliever specialist. But he did have a closer in the game in his role. Also here is a interesting tidbit.

Vs Lefties this year

Ray: .212/.260/.387

Sewald: .167/.245/.344

So yeah, there is a solid chance Alvare is hurting anyone you toss out there even a fully warmed up and prepared Luis Castillo. But Sewald was the better of the two options. Because Ray was simply a bad option.

Either way there was still a low percentage chance of Alvarez going yard on that at bat, so you have to give him credit. The kid is hitting well, he's fielding well, he's throwing well, so all you can do is tip your hat to him. And hope he doesn't make all his teammates eat beans and rice---or whatever the hell they eat......

 

[Cedrique]

Either way there was still a low percentage chance of Alvarez going yard on that at bat, so you have to give him credit. The kid is hitting well, he's fielding well, he's throwing well, so all you can do is tip your hat to him. And hope he doesn't make all his teammates eat beans and rice---or whatever the hell they eat......

Sorry about that, I think Fuzzy Zoeller hacked my account again

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Yeah I think leaving the closer in there was the move. I did read somewhere that they had discussed using Ray in relief ahead of time but that probably should have been reserved for some emergency in a 15 inning game or something. Using him where they did seemed like a little bit of panicking.

Yeah ultimately it was a classic case of whats become the playoff norm, and it mostly fails.

Go in with some arbitray plan that goes against your season long strategy. He wont be the last manager this post season to do something dumb. He basically confirmed that it was a rash move because of something they pre determined rather than seeing a game unfold.

You can have guys available if you run out of arms. Hell it happens during season sometimes too. But relievers are relievers cause they are literally built for short match ups.

 

[molsaniceman]

and we are off

 

[molsaniceman]

hell of a pitchers duel

 

[bksballer89]

Wow huge

 

[molsaniceman]

all up to frazier

 

[molsaniceman]

free baseball

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

Well, 2 best bullpens showing why they’re the 2 best bullpens … Common M’s!!

 

[Tai Chi≈Surfing]

Servais should've had Frazier bunting there in that spot.

 

[Montalban]

This is what I'm talking about with the stupid rule change for the playoffs without the runner at second to start the inning in extra innings. Nothing to nothing game in 13 boring innings. Get this snooze fest over already.

 

[10HtownRebs]

This umpire is ridiculous. All day on both sides... He's missed at least a dozen pitches on both sides..

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

This umpire is ridiculous. All day on both sides... He's missed at least a dozen pitches on both sides..

Agreed, he’s been inconsistent

 

[Cedrique]

How many pitchers are left on these teams? Is Bud Selig going to have to come in and stop the game?