MLB Daily Thread: 8/30/17 Sale Sails, Royals Win, Dodgers Actually lose

[soxfan1468927]

Cool story, bro.

Seriously, I don't think it should have any baring on the CY, and I think it is less so than it used to be, but still, Bill James' formula for predicting CY includes a fairly significant adjustment for the standings and it's correctly identified 11 of the last 12 CY winners.

And if you go back and adjust to ignore the divisions, they would be 12 for 12.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Jokes are funny.

This conversation is making my penis itch.

Your penis constantly itches because you slam it into your desk drawer.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

And if you go back and adjust to ignore the divisions, they would be 12 for 12.

Nope. 8 for 12.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Your penis constantly itches because you slam it into your desk drawer.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Nope. 8 for 12.

I'm saying if you remove the victory bonus altogether.

How would it be 8/12?

 

[Kenny]

So glad to have Bellinger back today and Kershaw back on Friday.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I'm saying if you remove the victory bonus altogether.

How would it be 8/12?

Because if you remove the victory bonus, it only predicted 8 of the last 12 CY winners.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Because if you remove the victory bonus, it only predicted 8 of the last 12 CY winners.

But...it didn't.

It would predict:
2016: Porcello and Scherzer
2015: Keuchel and Arrieta
2014: Kluber and Kershaw
2013: Scherzer and Kershaw
2012: Price and Dickey
2011: Verlander and Kershaw

That's 12 for 12.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

But...it didn't.

It would predict:
2016: Porcello and Scherzer
2015: Keuchel and Arrieta
2014: Kluber and Kershaw
2013: Scherzer and Kershaw
2012: Price and Dickey
2011: Verlander and Kershaw

That's 12 for 12.

Made you look.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Made you look.

LOL

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

But...it didn't.

It would predict:
2016: Porcello and Scherzer
2015: Keuchel and Arrieta
2014: Kluber and Kershaw
2013: Scherzer and Kershaw
2012: Price and Dickey
2011: Verlander and Kershaw

That's 12 for 12.

Seriously though, that's good to know.

It'd be interesting to go back through all the ones they list on ESPN and see how that change would effect the accuracy. I think it's run at about 80-85% accurate since they've been keeping track.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Seriously though, that's good to know.

It'd be interesting to go back through all the ones they list on ESPN and see how that change would effect the accuracy. I think it's run at about 80-85% accurate since they've been keeping track.

Let's see:


2007 they were right on Sabathia, but without the VB they would be wrong and pick JJ Putz
2006 they were wrong on Webb, would have been right without the VB

So with 2015 being the other one that would have been right without the VB, they would net 1 extra year where they were correct.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Hernandez winning in 2010 with a 13-12 record on a 100+ loss team really sent up the flag that voters were starting to buck the old traditions.

I wonder what the formula would look like now if James & Neyer took another crack at it.

 

[Rock Strongo]

pretty cool

the dayton dragons, reds class A affiliate, has sold out every game in the last 18 years.

Baseball's Hottest Ticket: The Minor League Team with an 18-Year Sellout Streak

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

pretty cool

the dayton dragons, reds class A affiliate, has sold out every game in the last 18 years.

Baseball's Hottest Ticket: The Minor League Team with an 18-Year Sellout Streak

It's a real nice way
To spend the day
In Dayton, Ohio
On a lazy Sunday afternoon in 1903

 

[soxfan1468927]

Hernandez winning in 2010 with a 13-12 record on a 100+ loss team really sent up the flag that voters were starting to buck the old traditions.

I wonder what the formula would look like now if James & Neyer took another crack at it.

Yeah I'd be curious. But, as you pointed out, they are 11/12 in the last 6 years. So I'm not sure they would tweak it too much.

2010 was great when Felix won, and even better that it wasn't close. 21/28 first place votes.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Speaking of BBWAA voting. I'm very curious the impact of public ballots will have this year for the HOF.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Speaking of BBWAA voting. I'm very curious the impact of public ballots will have this year for the HOF.

Ohh. I didn't know that.

Do you think they've conspired in the past to make sure no one is unanimous 1st ballot? Seems like they'd have to.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Indians - 2
Yankees - fuckall

 

[bksballer89]

This guy Garcia is horrible.