Rolltide94
Well-Known Member
So you’re in denial that it’s a benefit that the SEC and ACC play one extra P5? An on a bad year you get 4 extra wins in the conference, on a good year you get 6/7. As I said that’s the difference between a 7 win team becoming an 8 win team and getting ranked. A 5 win team becoming a 6 win team and bowling and a 10 win team becoming an 11 win team and being in the playoff picture.
No, you are in denial, it is never 6 or 7 games. There has never been a year where the SEC has won 13 or 14 of 14 G5 games, which is what you are trying to say. Hell, we only manage to win all the FCS games every other season, so your premise is ridiculous.
Alabama, which by by most accounts would be considered an elite program. We have a lot of National Championships spread over a lot of decades and since most P5 conferences went to an 11 game schedule in 1941, we have had 55 seasons with 8 wins or better and only 7 losing seasons. My point being we have been good for a long time and consistently good.
We win our games versus non-P5 FBS opponents 78.4% of the time.
Since we already play Tennessee every year, our potential conference opponents are as follows with our historical winning percentage against each:
South Carolina - .733
Georgia - .609
Missouri - .667
Vanderbilt - .744
Florida - .641
Kentucky - .938
That averages out to a win 72.2% of the time.
SO, for Alabama, historically if we played a hundred games versus G5 teams we would win 78 games and if we played one of the other SEC East teams we would win 72 times in 100 games.
So, roughly 6% of the time we would do better playing a G5 opponent versus.
I don't know how well you math, but historically that means about once every 16 or 17 seasons Alabama would be better off playing a G5 opponent, winning a game they should not have won. Obviously if we played a team like Georgia our chance of winning goes way down compared to Kentucky, but that is true of G5 opponents too. We are much more likely to drop one to Boise State than we are to Troy and so on.
Like I said yesterday, The teams at the top are going to win, the teams at the bottom are going to lose, if you ran Vandy's numbers you are going to get something that looks like the complete opposite of Alabama, they are much more likely to lose either game. It is the teams in the middle that are getting the coin flip. Take 2019 for example. LSU is not losing ot any of the SEC East teams they didn't play, just wasn't going to happen, nor are they losing to any G5 opponent, by contrast I don't think Arkansas beats any of them, but they also lost one of their G5 games. 6-7 Mississippi St. They won both their G5 games and played Kentucky and Tennessee, leaving Missouri, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida as potential opponents. As I said earlier, that is a coin flip, Georgia or Florida, they lose, Vanderbilt they win, Missouri/South Carolina, flip a coin.
So again, your teams in the middle may or may not benefit depending on the year and who they draw, so you are deciding who gets to go to Music City Bowl, not who is going to the playoffs or who is being ranked. Pretending it is otherwise doesn't make it so, it just makes you too dumb to do the math.