2019-2020 Official Regular Season Thread

[tlance]

If he'd had any guts and bet me I'd be sweating it for sure. Whether I'm right or not depends on how long the bet would have gone and if we keep getting the trend we want (lately the figures have really improved)

But yeah it now could easily get there, which is sad. I was too optimistic.

You would be done. No chance the death toll is under 100K.

 

[Black Adam]

here in Michigan I am fully expecting a significant second wave. People are already tired of stay at home and beginning to behave badly. I'm not talking about the protests you've seen on tv, I'm talking about the gatherings I'm seeing in my neighborhood. We are set to come off the latest stay at home order at the end of the month. This coincides with nice weather here which means tons of people every weekend go from population centers to go up north to lake houses in small communities that have not yet been as affected. These places have poor health care facilities that will be overrun by any more than 3 cases. So the lake locals are screwed. Plus the people visiting their lake house neighbors can also then bring it back to the urban centers again when they return home. I'm pretty certain July will not have good numbers here in Michigan.

I believe it. 4 wall syndrome's a bitch...

 

[trojanfan12]

I was a little startled by behaviors I also witnessed and that's the issue with such a large disinformation effort that's taking place.

lol

I wasn't. I generally think most people are idiots to some degree and expect them to behave as such.

In all seriousness, I don't think as many people are behaving badly as it looks like. There are always going to be people who react poorly to things and do stupid things.

I think some of that is stuff being retweeted, shared on Facebook etc. but it's shared so many times that it looks like a lot more than it is.

 

[Black Adam]

lol

I wasn't. I generally think most people are idiots to some degree and expect them to behave as such.

In all seriousness, I don't think as many people are behaving badly as it looks like. There are always going to be people who react poorly to things and do stupid things.

I think some of that is stuff being retweeted, shared on Facebook etc. but it's shared so many times that it looks like a lot more than it is.

guess it all depends on how much you buy into the news and social media...

 

[tlance]

I'm not so sure a 2nd wave, if one happens, will be as bad as you think.

People have been separated for how long now? I'd think that if someone was going to get it, they'd have had it by now and recovered.

Also, as mentioned earlier, a spike in reported cases isn't what's going to be important, more testing (and more accurate testing) will almost certainly create a spike in cases.

It's hospitalizations and deaths that will need to be watched closely.

I honestly don’t understand this line of thinking.

People have been self quarantined. That means most of us haven’t been exposed to it yet. As society starts to open back up, people who weren’t exposed before will be.

We won’t be truly past this until vaccines are available.

 

[logic]

I'm not so sure a 2nd wave, if one happens, will be as bad as you think.

People have been separated for how long now? I'd think that if someone was going to get it, they'd have had it by now and recovered.

Also, as mentioned earlier, a spike in reported cases isn't what's going to be important, more testing (and more accurate testing) will almost certainly create a spike in cases.

It's hospitalizations and deaths that will need to be watched closely.

I agree that it is hospitalizations and deaths that are the biggest concern, but that also comes with new cases. While the number of new cases is on the decline in population centers, there are still new cases, meaning that the virus is still spreading, even with stay at home in place. Take that away and people traveling to places that have not yet been affected and that have poor health care capabilities you have small towns that will be seriously affected. And the visitors to lake houses don't all come from the same place so you will have infections going back to urban centers again. i seriously hope i am wrong and you are right, that it won't be as serious as i think, but you probably don't know the dynamic of summer in michigan--it ain't the same as Cali.

 

[trojanfan12]

I honestly don’t understand this line of thinking.

People have been self quarantined. That means most of us haven’t been exposed to it yet. As society starts to open back up, people who weren’t exposed before will be.

We won’t be truly past this until vaccines are available.

Because the virus doesn't live forever and it isn't lurking outside our front doors waiting for us to step outside so it can get us.

We have a flu season every year. For most people, if they don't get the flu during flu season, they aren't getting it that year. It doesn't mean no one will get the flu outside of flu season, just that it's not as likely.

Additionally, it's not like we're not learning anything about this virus. At the very least, there's something of a blueprint on how to deal with it that would also help with a possible 2nd wave.

That's why I think that, if there is a 2nd wave, it won't necessarily be immediate. It may, like the flu, come back later. Hopefully, by the time that happens, there will a vaccine available.

 

[trojanfan12]

I agree that it is hospitalizations and deaths that are the biggest concern, but that also comes with new cases. While the number of new cases is on the decline in population centers, there are still new cases, meaning that the virus is still spreading, even with stay at home in place. Take that away and people traveling to places that have not yet been affected and that have poor health care capabilities you have small towns that will be seriously affected. And the visitors to lake houses don't all come from the same place so you will have infections going back to urban centers again. i seriously hope i am wrong and you are right, that it won't be as serious as i think, but you probably don't know the dynamic of summer in michigan--it ain't the same as Cali.

Are there truly that many more new cases, or is there just more testing?

From everything I've read all of the numbers are trending in the right direction and have been for a while.

Additionally, I don't know how they are going to handle things in Michigan. But in California, they aren't just going to open everything back up right away. They're going to do it in stages. I think one thing that was mentioned was that when they start to re-open things like movie theaters and restaurants, it will be at something like 25% capacity. Then bumped up when the numbers indicate it's appropriate.

By re-opening in stages based on what the numbers are showing it would also help against a 2nd wave because things can be held at that stage for longer if necessary or even stepped back a little if the numbers show that to be necessary.

 

[logic]

Because the virus doesn't live forever and it isn't lurking outside our front doors waiting for us to step outside so it can get us.

We have a flu season every year. For most people, if they don't get the flu during flu season, they aren't getting it that year. It doesn't mean no one will get the flu outside of flu season, just that it's not as likely.

Additionally, it's not like we're not learning anything about this virus. At the very least, there's something of a blueprint on how to deal with it that would also help with a possible 2nd wave.

That's why I think that, if there is a 2nd wave, it won't necessarily be immediate. It may, like the flu, come back later. Hopefully, by the time that happens, there will a vaccine available.

It is a mistake to compare this virus to the flu. Different viral structure and dynamic. Also, most people's immune system have seen a flu virus, and while it may not be the same one, different people will have different levels of immunity even to the "new" seasonal flu. This corona virus is new and no one started with any immunity to it, though there have been other corona viruses around (the common cold). We have never made a vaccine to a corona virus, though there has never been a big push since they are not typically lethal. But a vaccine is a long term solution, not something that can be done in 6 months with any level of testing, long after a predicted second wave.

 

[logic]

Are there truly that many more new cases, or is there just more testing?

From everything I've read all of the numbers are trending in the right direction and have been for a while.

Additionally, I don't know how they are going to handle things in Michigan. But in California, they aren't just going to open everything back up right away. They're going to do it in stages. I think one thing that was mentioned was that when they start to re-open things like movie theaters and restaurants, it will be at something like 25% capacity. Then bumped up when the numbers indicate it's appropriate.

By re-opening in stages based on what the numbers are showing it would also help against a 2nd wave because things can be held at that stage for longer if necessary or even stepped back a little if the numbers show that to be necessary.

Yes, numbers are trending in the right direction, meaning fewer new cases. But that is still new cases.

And yes, more testing does equal more cases, but these are new cases of virus still. Evidence that the stay at home is working to slow the spread. When you don't stay at home, you won't slow the spread.

Great, a restaurant at the lake is 25% capacity, but you go with your lake neighbors and their son is asymptomatic you've just exposed your family and anyone else you do anything with at the lake, and you're bringing it back home with you.

 

[trojanfan12]

It is a mistake to compare this virus to the flu. Different viral structure and dynamic. Also, most people's immune system have seen a flu virus, and while it may not be the same one, different people will have different levels of immunity even to the "new" seasonal flu. This corona virus is new and no one started with any immunity to it, though there have been other corona viruses around (the common cold). We have never made a vaccine to a corona virus, though there has never been a big push since they are not typically lethal. But a vaccine is a long term solution, not something that can be done in 6 months with any level of testing, long after a predicted second wave.

Not comparing other than to say that it's the same thing. Not sure how you got that from my post.

 

[Wamu]

guess it all depends on how much you buy into the news and social media...

I was watching the local news last night & they did a segment on a coffee shop (yuck!) here in the state. C&C Coffee & Kitchen in Castle Rock. The place was jammed packed. Nobody was doing the social distancing thing. And of course being a coffee shop nobody had a mask on.

That' some scary & ignorant shit. Just proof too many people in many states aren't taking this virus with the seriousness it deserves.

 

[Wamu]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

Depends what you consider a spike. Case counts will go up dramatically as states test more.

Watching hospitalizations and death tolls is a better key

If they explode we may have to rethink this thing

If case counts go up dramatically, then one can assume that hospitalizations and death will go hand in hand.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

Are there truly that many more new cases, or is there just more testing?

From everything I've read all of the numbers are trending in the right direction and have been for a while.

Additionally, I don't know how they are going to handle things in Michigan. But in California, they aren't just going to open everything back up right away. They're going to do it in stages. I think one thing that was mentioned was that when they start to re-open things like movie theaters and restaurants, it will be at something like 25% capacity. Then bumped up when the numbers indicate it's appropriate.

By re-opening in stages based on what the numbers are showing it would also help against a 2nd wave because things can be held at that stage for longer if necessary or even stepped back a little if the numbers show that to be necessary.

Doesn’t ‘ the more testing’ equate to less than 5% of our total population being tested so far?
In addition, reported death counts are higher then reported if you consider that death certificates can be 1-8 weeks behind, plus all the other nonsense going on like Florida only counting deaths from Florida residents vs counting actual number of people who have died here.

 

[msgkings322]

The other thing that will be important, imo, is how things are handled if there is a 2nd spike in hospitalizations and deaths.

The temptation would likely be to reset back to square 1. Hopefully, they'd decide to just stop and hold where we are for a week or 2 longer and see where it goes.

Or tighten it up but only in that area

 

[msgkings322]

You would be done. No chance the death toll is under 100K.

Not if the cutoff is, say end of June possibly. But yeah I was too optimistic

 

[Stakesarehigh]

If case counts go up dramatically, then one can assume that hospitalizations and death will go hand in hand.

Not necessarily. Ohio is planning on doubling and tripling those tested. I don't think anyone thinks the mortality rate of this is 5 percent as it shows

Probably for those above 65

 

[tlance]

Not if the cutoff is, say end of June possibly. But yeah I was too optimistic

Even then, I don’t like your chances.

 

[tlance]

Because the virus doesn't live forever and it isn't lurking outside our front doors waiting for us to step outside so it can get us.

We have a flu season every year. For most people, if they don't get the flu during flu season, they aren't getting it that year. It doesn't mean no one will get the flu outside of flu season, just that it's not as likely.

Additionally, it's not like we're not learning anything about this virus. At the very least, there's something of a blueprint on how to deal with it that would also help with a possible 2nd wave.

That's why I think that, if there is a 2nd wave, it won't necessarily be immediate. It may, like the flu, come back later. Hopefully, by the time that happens, there will a vaccine available.

So...

Your thinking is that after social distancing for a month that 0 people will have the virus?

Because if there are people out there who have it once distancing restrictions are lifted (there will be) then the virus will spread. And people who weren’t exposed before will be.

As for the flu, I am pretty sure that the virus doesn’t survive outside the body in warm temperature. I have heard zero indication that applies to Covid. Apples and oranges there.