2019-20 Quest for the cup(The Carter Hart era begins)

[awaz]

Also, the defense may have some 'soft' to it, but they've allowed the fewest shots against per game. I'll take that over being the toughest SOB's on the planet. See Morin last night as an example of toughness not being the answer.

 

[Chris p Bacon]

Also, the defense may have some 'soft' to it, but they've allowed the fewest shots against per game. I'll take that over being the toughest SOB's on the planet. See Morin last night as an example of toughness not being the answer.

Lol I guess it was easy just to pick out the guy who played his first game last night.

 

[chy1127]

If nothing else, I think Morin's play last night shows that you cant have a young guy as your #7 dman and sitting out multiple games in a row. !st game he played in 10 games. He's in a tough spot.

 

[Sparhawk]

5v5 numbers look good.
Power play looking solid
Penalty kill looking solid.

Team still adapting to a new coach/system.

The success of this team and their quest for a cup will be based on how consistent they can be and whether or not they have more winning streaks than losing streaks.

Fletcher/AV get the benefit of the doubt right now because their play is trending up.
Let's see where they are by Thanksgiving before we decide to call the season off...

 

[purdue81]

Goals against last night
1) Hart stops initial shot, puck sitting on doorstep. Braun clearing guy in front of net, Sandheim on ground tied up with an Islander - Hart's balance is on his heels, just couldn't get to puck - wide open net for tap in
2) Odd man rush, point blank shot. We got used to Hart making that save. He got a piece, just not enough
3) Sandheim misplays puck.. Braun was waiting for the puck behind the net (exactly where it would have gone if Sandheim plays it). Wide open dude in front of net.
4) Really soft goal - no excuse
5) Clear breakaway.

Except for #4 ---- The other 4 goals I pin on our Forwards not playing D the way they have been playing. And I put that on the Islanders bottling them up and getting very quick exits from our Offensive Zone.

MIC Drop

 

[lasgop8]

Brian Elliott is the NHL’s Third Star of The Week!

 

[lasgop8]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/injured-scott-laughton-whats-next-024458777.html

 

[awaz]

If nothing else, I think Morin's play last night shows that you cant have a young guy as your #7 dman and sitting out multiple games in a row. !st game he played in 10 games. He's in a tough spot.

I really do think they should take the risk and send him to the Phantoms. If he gets claimed, so be it. He's not going to get any better as the 7th dman. Considering the Flyers are trying to win and improve on last year, they can't waste the 6th dman spot on a guy just to get him experience. He's, at best, the 8th best dman eligible to play Flyers games.

 

[lasgop8]

NHL fans think the Flyers are going to make the playoffs!

 

[lasgop8]

I really do think they should take the risk and send him to the Phantoms. If he gets claimed, so be it. He's not going to get any better as the 7th dman. Considering the Flyers are trying to win and improve on last year, they can't waste the 6th dman spot on a guy just to get him experience. He's, at best, the 8th best dman eligible to play Flyers games.

If we were going to send him down at the risk he gets claimed why wouldn't we trade him and not lose him for nothing?

 

[lasgop8]

Also, the defense may have some 'soft' to it, but they've allowed the fewest shots against per game. I'll take that over being the toughest SOB's on the planet. See Morin last night as an example of toughness not being the answer.

Now that Stewart is playing we dont need his toughness and really the guy just came off of a 10 game layoff

 

[chy1127]

I really do think they should take the risk and send him to the Phantoms. If he gets claimed, so be it. He's not going to get any better as the 7th dman. Considering the Flyers are trying to win and improve on last year, they can't waste the 6th dman spot on a guy just to get him experience. He's, at best, the 8th best dman eligible to play Flyers games.

He definitely needs game time. After his injuries, I thought another AHL year would do him good. Still a problem with becomes #7. Bring Myers up and let him rotate in. Ghost and Sanheim could also use a night off after last night. Myers would have to join the top 6 or it's the same situation as Morin. Young guys can't sit that long and be expected to produce.

 

[JBM73]

Some interesting advanced stats that I looked up based on a hunch:

The Coots/Konecny/Lindblom line has dominated possession, controlling 64% of shots despite having a zone start % of 43% (meaning they start 57% of non-neutral zone starts in the D-zone and only 43% in the O-zone), but has been victimized by a dreadful .852 goalie save % at 5on5. Braun is in the same boat with a 40% zone start % while still controlling 61% of shots but with an .843 save % 5on5. Conversely, Ghost has benefitted from a ridiculous .984 save % when he's on the ice 5on5 and JVR .981, despite having worse shot metrics while getting more o-zone starts. Both save % extremes will inevitably regress much closer to the mean.

 

[JBM73]

IDK, maybe the advanced stat weenies can explain this, but I thought it was more how they shut down our offense, which led to their advantage in their offensive zone.

Maybe if you took the time to understand them you would learn that those of us who truly understand them (such as one CAN truly understand them, haha) know best that they can never completely replace the eye test. They should supplement the eye test and nudge your (unbiased) opinions, but not drastically alter them, and can actually significantly enhance your enjoyment of watching the game (assuming you can ignore the commentator's weak attempts at providing said stats).

For example, I think you would agree that the Couturier/Konecny/Lindblom line appears to consistently dominate play when they're on the ice. And yet, they've also been on the ice for boatloads of goals against. Well, the advanced stats support that opinion, and also help you see that they're doing this despite drawing tougher-than-average defensive assignments. You would then see that the problem is that even though they're not giving up many shots, a high percentage of them are ending up in the net. Ok, so next game you can specifically watch them in the defensive zone to see if it's simply bad luck, poor defenseman or goalie play or perhaps, despite not allowing many shots against, the occasional complete breakdowns are allowing too many "high danger" scoring attempts against despite the overall shot volume being low. Well, at least I find that it enhances my enjoyment of the game....unless I'm at the bar, in which case it only enhances my enjoyment of the first period or period and a half...

All advanced stats in isolation are useless. For example, a commentator says that he doesn't understand the Ghost hate because Ghost has a (insert flavor of the month stat representing shot metrics) of some positive number. However, what the commentator doesn't know is that he has a zone start percentage of 61% and is rarely used against the opponents best players. It takes several key stats looked at TOGETHER to begin making an honest evaluation using stats:

Shot volumes
High danger scoring chances
Zone start %
Quality of linemates
Quality of competition

There might be others that I'm not thinking about at the moment. Use all of those in conjunction with the eye test and yes, it definitely paints a truer picture than does the eye test alone. However, if those stats say something completely different than what you're seeing on the ice, it's probably time to visit the eye doctor.

 

[lasgop8]

Whats up with Carter Hart?

 

[JBM73]

Whats up with Carter Hart?

The advanced stats say that he's been bad. Really bad.

Seriously though, it can't be blamed on the team in front of him. Elliot is beating him badly in just about every meaningful statistical category, including the fact that Elliot faces a significantly higher percentage of high danger chances (Elliot 30.9% to 18.7% for Hart).

So, what's really up with Hart? I don't think any of us know. He started the pre-season absolutely on fire, then had the clunker in Prague. He rebounded with a couple of good starts and then has subsequently fallen off of a cliff. I watched him closely on Sunday, and he was pretty much bad in all aspects - his positioning/angles was off, he had poor rebound control and seemed to be having trouble tracking the puck. All of that tells me he probably isn't simply fighting a minor injury (unless it's an eye injury - hopefully that's just a joke) that he's trying to play through. He seems to be struggling mentally for whatever reason. He was pretty bad last year in the early going for the Phantoms as well, for what that's worth. I don't see teams trying to take advantage of any one particular flaw in his game, so I don't think that teams have just "figured him out".

 

[purdue81]

Maybe if you took the time to understand them you would learn that those of us who truly understand them (such as one CAN truly understand them, haha) know best that they can never completely replace the eye test. They should supplement the eye test and nudge your (unbiased) opinions, but not drastically alter them, and can actually significantly enhance your enjoyment of watching the game (assuming you can ignore the commentator's weak attempts at providing said stats).

For example, I think you would agree that the Couturier/Konecny/Lindblom line appears to consistently dominate play when they're on the ice. And yet, they've also been on the ice for boatloads of goals against. Well, the advanced stats support that opinion, and also help you see that they're doing this despite drawing tougher-than-average defensive assignments. You would then see that the problem is that even though they're not giving up many shots, a high percentage of them are ending up in the net. Ok, so next game you can specifically watch them in the defensive zone to see if it's simply bad luck, poor defenseman or goalie play or perhaps, despite not allowing many shots against, the occasional complete breakdowns are allowing too many "high danger" scoring attempts against despite the overall shot volume being low. Well, at least I find that it enhances my enjoyment of the game....unless I'm at the bar, in which case it only enhances my enjoyment of the first period or period and a half...

All advanced stats in isolation are useless. For example, a commentator says that he doesn't understand the Ghost hate because Ghost has a (insert flavor of the month stat representing shot metrics) of some positive number. However, what the commentator doesn't know is that he has a zone start percentage of 61% and is rarely used against the opponents best players. It takes several key stats looked at TOGETHER to begin making an honest evaluation using stats:

Shot volumes
High danger scoring chances
Zone start %
Quality of linemates
Quality of competition

There might be others that I'm not thinking about at the moment. Use all of those in conjunction with the eye test and yes, it definitely paints a truer picture than does the eye test alone. However, if those stats say something completely different than what you're seeing on the ice, it's probably time to visit the eye doctor.

Lindblom-Couturier-Konecny Line definitely passes the eye test / advanced stats test. Like you say, any stat in isolation is useless.

we all agree (right?) +/- alone doesn’t come close to telling the whole story, further supporting your argument.

Stats tell you trends. You have to look at each scoring play to get to the “why did that goal happen”. There’s a meaningful percentage of goals where it seems like luck. Ghosts goal hit an islander on the way. What fraction of an inch changes that from a goal to a blocked shot ?

Hockey is fun to watch and even more fun to talk/bitch about.

 

[chy1127]

Whats up with Carter Hart?

Apparently he started slow to start the season last year as well.

 

[Maverick426h]

A great deal of the numbers look very strong for this team through 10 games:

7th in overall offense
16th in overall defense
2nd in shots on net per game
Fewest shots allowed in the entire Nhl
24th in save percentage
5th best powerplay
9th best penalty kill

Play some better team defense and get a few more stops in net and we're truly golden. Then the overall record will only continue to improve.

 

[Maverick426h]

The defense is really tied for 13th with 3 other teams.