2018 Roster Expectations

[SFGRTB]

His current contract, just FYI...


4/84 with a 22/5 club option.

No no-trade protection, but he does get a 500K bonus for his first trade and a 1M bonus for each trade after that. So technically, the Gs would only be on the hook for the 500K trade bonus if they were able to flip him. The receiving team would be responsible for the first 1M if they wanted to trade him after that.

His 5th year option has a $5M buyout, BTW.

 

[calsnowskier]

His 5th year option has a $5M buyout, BTW.

That’s what I meant with the 22/5. Kinda unclear, though, my bad...

 

[SFGRTB]

That’s what I meant with the 22/5. Kinda unclear, though, my bad...

Ahh, I read that as $22M for a 5th year.

 

[calsnowskier]

Ahh, I read that as $22M for a 5th year.

Yea, understandable. Me = unclear

 

[calsnowskier]

No news and it is 10:40 EST. Again, seeing as no action = he stays, and action would cause news...

It is unofficially official.

 

[LHG]

Giants prospect Steven Duggar heating up in the Arizona Fall League

The Giants want an outfielder capable of tracking down fly balls left and right, behind and in front, as their center fielder in 2018. That won't be Denard Span, who turns 34 in February.

Steven Duggar, celebrating his 24th birthday on Saturday, could soon be the solution.

"A lot of things come natural for him in the outfield," Brian Sabean said to Alex Pavlovic in early October. "His reads, his breaks, his ability to outrun the ball, is very impressive."

Duggar's hitting ability has always taken a bit of a back seat to his defense despite putting up encouraging numbers in the minor leagues. Over three years in the minors, Duggar is a career .292 hitter with 17 home runs.

"While the bat is still on the come, he should be a complementary type of offensive player in a major league lineup," Sabean said in the same interview with Pavlovic. "Now, is he let’s say top of the order? I don’t know if we have enough information."

In the Arizona Fall League, Duggar is beginning to find his stroke while showing the patience of an ideal table setter for the Giants. After trying to catch up at the plate against elite prospect pitching, Duggar is on a four-game hitting streak where he is batting .438 (7-for-16).


Duggar went 2-for-4 with a walk and a run scored Thursday to continue his recent surge at the plate. Through 14 games, Duggar is now slashing .269/.381/.308. He leads the Scottsdale Scorpions in stolen bases, going a perfect 8-for-8 so far, and is second on the team with nine walks.

If it weren't for injuries, Duggar only played in 44 games this past season, the Giants most likely would have given him a shot at the bigs already. With an aging roster as it is, especially in the outfield, the Giants can hand the keys to the Clemson product and let him develop in San Francisco.

Even though this is from the AFL thread, I thought my response is more appropriate here. While I'm excited about Duggar, I think that promoting him to SF to start 2018 is a bit premature, not unlike Brandon Belt's first taste of the big leagues. I'd rather see him get some more time in at Sacramento first, see what he can do down there. Instead, I'd like to see what mix we can get out of Williamson, Parker and Slater. Let Hernandez compete in spring training but let him go if he doesn't look good. Then, see how an outfield of Williamson, Parker, Slater, Pence and Span do at the start of the season. Give the three "youngsters" plenty of chances to either shine or suck. I don't have big expectations for the Giants in 2018 and would much rather play the rookies and see what they can do.

That being said, I know that is not what the FO plans. They want to upgrade the team. But, barring trades, where can they upgrade? Let's start with the starting 5:
Assuming the Giants to pull a walloping surprise and not exercise Bumgarner's option, the first 4 slots are set with Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija and Moore. Right now, it would be a dogfight between Blach and Stratton, and maybe Beede, to get that 5th spot.
Relief - the Giants are rolling the dice that the back end of their bullpen can consist of Smith, Strickland, Dyson and Melancon. Crick and Gearrin will most likely be in the mix as well. If so, that leaves one spot for a lefty that the Giants are sure to sign through free agency (or maybe acquire via a trade).
The woeful hitting corp consists of returners Posey (catcher), Belt (1st base), Panik (2nd base), Crawford (ss) and Span/Pence (left field). Considering the Giants' affinity to keep playing their favorite veterans until their contracts run out, it will take Sandoval somehow batting a negative number in spring training not to start the season at 3rd base. That leaves too spots in the lineup to fill, center and right fields.
Then there is the bench. Will Nick Hundley return in free agency? There are no other options right now as the Giants have dfa'd the two primary guys from AAA, released Josmil Pinto and Aramis Garcia just recently reached AA. Kelby Tomlinson filled in okay as the backup middle infielder but there wasn't really much help on the corners. Maybe Jones or Arroyo could fill that spot, depending on how free agent pickups goes. Slater, Parker, Williamson and Hernandez will probably compete for the 5th outfielder spot.

I just don't see how this team could be competitive in 2018 if the FO goes the free agency route to fill holes. They could get more bold and make some trades but, depending on how they work them, those trades could do more harm then good. I really wish the ownership would recognize now that its time for a rebuild and try to explain to the fan base how important this is. What better time to do it, than right after the 2nd consecutive WS championship team that was primarily built through the same process?

 

[calsnowskier]

And it is officially official...

Johnny Cueto Will Not Opt Out Of Contract

 

[LHG]

I see, based on my last post, the following spots being filled through free agency:
5th starter - There are, according to spotrac, 46 starting pitchers set to hit the market. 33 of them will be 30 or older next year. The only really notable ones are Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, Andrew Cashner, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb (maybe Michael Pineda fits into this group as well). However, I think that all of them will be beyond the Giants' taste in budget costs. So if they settle into not just letting this spot be filled from within, they may look at someone like Tyler Chatwood, Brett Anderson, Chris Tillman, Wade Miley, Clay Buchholz or Doug Fister. All of them are coming off injury decimated and/or very ineffective 2017 seasons so they may be had for a discount.
Relief (specifically, left handed relief) - The lefties I find intriguing are Jake McGee and Kevin Siegrist. Most of the lefties available are on the wrong side of 30 and their numbers are so-so (which is much better than Okert/Osich). McGee was decent in a hitters' environment. Siegrist is younger than most and his 2017 would make him cheaper than others.
Center field - This group is limited to Peter Bourjos, Lorenzo Cain, Rajai Davis, Jaff Decker, Jarrod Dyson, Carlos Gomez, Curtis Granderson, Austin Jackson, Jon Jay, Cameron Maybin and Alex Presley. Is Span really that bad?
Right field - The right fielders on the market are: Norichika Aoki, Jose Bautista, Jay Bruce, Melky Cabrera, Craig Gentry, Carlos Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson, Austin Jackson, Jon Jay, JD Martinez, Alex Presley, Michael Saunders, Seth Smith, Ichiro Suzuki and Jayson Werth

I ask again, can we just start the rebuild?

 

[Stokes1931]

I see, based on my last post, the following spots being filled through free agency:
5th starter - There are, according to spotrac, 46 starting pitchers set to hit the market. 33 of them will be 30 or older next year. The only really notable ones are Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, Andrew Cashner, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb (maybe Michael Pineda fits into this group as well). However, I think that all of them will be beyond the Giants' taste in budget costs. So if they settle into not just letting this spot be filled from within, they may look at someone like Tyler Chatwood, Brett Anderson, Chris Tillman, Wade Miley, Clay Buchholz or Doug Fister. All of them are coming off injury decimated and/or very ineffective 2017 seasons so they may be had for a discount.
Relief (specifically, left handed relief) - The lefties I find intriguing are Jake McGee and Kevin Siegrist. Most of the lefties available are on the wrong side of 30 and their numbers are so-so (which is much better than Okert/Osich). McGee was decent in a hitters' environment. Siegrist is younger than most and his 2017 would make him cheaper than others.
Center field - This group is limited to Peter Bourjos, Lorenzo Cain, Rajai Davis, Jaff Decker, Jarrod Dyson, Carlos Gomez, Curtis Granderson, Austin Jackson, Jon Jay, Cameron Maybin and Alex Presley. Is Span really that bad?
Right field - The right fielders on the market are: Norichika Aoki, Jose Bautista, Jay Bruce, Melky Cabrera, Craig Gentry, Carlos Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson, Austin Jackson, Jon Jay, JD Martinez, Alex Presley, Michael Saunders, Seth Smith, Ichiro Suzuki and Jayson Werth

I ask again, can we just start the rebuild?

Yes, Span is that bad. Combined with Pence's increasingly limited range, that's a huge problem in a huge outfield.

 

[SFGRTB]

Even though this is from the AFL thread, I thought my response is more appropriate here. While I'm excited about Duggar, I think that promoting him to SF to start 2018 is a bit premature, not unlike Brandon Belt's first taste of the big leagues. I'd rather see him get some more time in at Sacramento first, see what he can do down there. Instead, I'd like to see what mix we can get out of Williamson, Parker and Slater. Let Hernandez compete in spring training but let him go if he doesn't look good. Then, see how an outfield of Williamson, Parker, Slater, Pence and Span do at the start of the season. Give the three "youngsters" plenty of chances to either shine or suck. I don't have big expectations for the Giants in 2018 and would much rather play the rookies and see what they can do.

That being said, I know that is not what the FO plans. They want to upgrade the team. But, barring trades, where can they upgrade? Let's start with the starting 5:
Assuming the Giants to pull a walloping surprise and not exercise Bumgarner's option, the first 4 slots are set with Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija and Moore. Right now, it would be a dogfight between Blach and Stratton, and maybe Beede, to get that 5th spot.
Relief - the Giants are rolling the dice that the back end of their bullpen can consist of Smith, Strickland, Dyson and Melancon. Crick and Gearrin will most likely be in the mix as well. If so, that leaves one spot for a lefty that the Giants are sure to sign through free agency (or maybe acquire via a trade).
The woeful hitting corp consists of returners Posey (catcher), Belt (1st base), Panik (2nd base), Crawford (ss) and Span/Pence (left field). Considering the Giants' affinity to keep playing their favorite veterans until their contracts run out, it will take Sandoval somehow batting a negative number in spring training not to start the season at 3rd base. That leaves too spots in the lineup to fill, center and right fields.
Then there is the bench. Will Nick Hundley return in free agency? There are no other options right now as the Giants have dfa'd the two primary guys from AAA, released Josmil Pinto and Aramis Garcia just recently reached AA. Kelby Tomlinson filled in okay as the backup middle infielder but there wasn't really much help on the corners. Maybe Jones or Arroyo could fill that spot, depending on how free agent pickups goes. Slater, Parker, Williamson and Hernandez will probably compete for the 5th outfielder spot.

I just don't see how this team could be competitive in 2018 if the FO goes the free agency route to fill holes. They could get more bold and make some trades but, depending on how they work them, those trades could do more harm then good. I really wish the ownership would recognize now that its time for a rebuild and try to explain to the fan base how important this is. What better time to do it, than right after the 2nd consecutive WS championship team that was primarily built through the same process?

I think most of what the Giants do this winter will be on the trade market.

In the small chance that Cueto opted out, I think we would have gone HARD after JD Martinez, but now I only see the team signing cheap players off the market, which I'm okay with.

"Barring trades" doesn't really apply here because that's going to be the story of the offseason, they're going to have a huge influence.

Position by position:

SP's. I will say, replacing a bunch of Cain starts with Bumgarner starts will be a big help at the get go, and to a lesser extent Blach starts replaced with Cueto starts. Don't forget to add Andrew Suarez to the 5th starter mix. I think Stratton has the track right now, but a lot can change.

Bullpen. I wonder what type of input Herges will have. I'm honestly not really comfortable penning anyone in right now. Melancon and Smith are recovering. Strickland could be on the trade block. I'm not convinced Dyson and his large arbitration price tag are coming back yet. Okert/Osich are probably doomed. For all the shit I give Gearrin, he was rather consistent and is probably the one guy I feel confident that will be back to open the season. Crick and Law have options and can be pushed, along with Snelten and whoever else is added to 40-man. I think it's nearly certain the Giants sign Watson, McGee, Minor or some lefty.

Of all the hitters, Panik is probably the one guy up in the air at the moment. That leaves 4 open positions. There's a lot to work with there.

I guess I'm not sure what your point is here. You don't want the Giants to call up Duggar, but you want them to play the youngsters. You aren't sure the Giants can improve, but then acknowledge there are at least 3 openings in the lineup.

Then zoning in on strictly free agent signings when the Giants will be active on the trade market.

 

[LHG]

Yes, Span is that bad. Combined with Pence's increasingly limited range, that's a huge problem in a huge outfield.

Here's my problem with going out and picking up a free agent or two for the outfield. Consider this lineup's age at OP 2018:

Posey - 31 (2021 - 34)
Belt - 29 (a month away from 30) (2021 - 33)
Panik - 27 (2020 - 29)
Crawford - 31 (2021 - 34)
Sandoval - 31 (2019 - 33)
Pence - 34 (two weeks from 35) (2018 - 35)/ Span - 34 (2018 - 34)
Gomez - 31 (3 year deal, 2020 - 33) or Cain - 31 (two weeks from 32) (4-year deal, 2021 - 36)
Bruce - 30 (week away from 31, 3 year deal, 2020 - 33) or Martinez - 30 (4-year deal, 2021 - 34)

Outside of Jaff Decker, there are no free agent outfielders under 30. This lineup would be locked in for at least two years unless the Giants decline Span's 2019 option. This lineup will age rapidly. This is what short term fixes will cost in a couple of years.

 

[LHG]

I think most of what the Giants do this winter will be on the trade market.

In the small chance that Cueto opted out, I think we would have gone HARD after JD Martinez, but now I only see the team signing cheap players off the market, which I'm okay with.

"Barring trades" doesn't really apply here because that's going to be the story of the offseason, they're going to have a huge influence.

Position by position:

SP's. I will say, replacing a bunch of Cain starts with Bumgarner starts will be a big help at the get go, and to a lesser extent Blach starts replaced with Cueto starts. Don't forget to add Andrew Suarez to the 5th starter mix. I think Stratton has the track right now, but a lot can change.

Bullpen. I wonder what type of input Herges will have. I'm honestly not really comfortable penning anyone in right now. Melancon and Smith are recovering. Strickland could be on the trade block. I'm not convinced Dyson and his large arbitration price tag are coming back yet. Okert/Osich are probably doomed. For all the shit I give Gearrin, he was rather consistent and is probably the one guy I feel confident that will be back to open the season. Crick and Law have options and can be pushed, along with Snelten and whoever else is added to 40-man. I think it's nearly certain the Giants sign Watson, McGee, Minor or some lefty.

Of all the hitters, Panik is probably the one guy up in the air at the moment. That leaves 4 open positions. There's a lot to work with there.

I guess I'm not sure what your point is here. You don't want the Giants to call up Duggar, but you want them to play the youngsters. You aren't sure the Giants can improve, but then acknowledge there are at least 3 openings in the lineup.

Then zoning in on strictly free agent signings when the Giants will be active on the trade market.

My point about Duggar is give him time as the team doesn't need to rush him either way. The "kids" are the other outfielders they currently have (i.e. Slater, Williamson, Parker). Finally give them extended looks to see whether they are worth keeping around. They plug in the holes in the outfield, for now at least. If they don't work out, a bunch of other outfielders, including Duggar, are coming up.

Openings in the lineup doesn't mean the Giants can improve, that just means they are looking for someone to plug in. See my last post about using free agents to plug those holes. I stated that I want to see the Giants do into rebuild but I know that they won't so I was trying to figure out how they plug in those holes. Typically, in the past few years, its been mainly through free agency. That is why I looked exclusively at that area. I realize that trades could happen this year but there have been some on this forum that have thought was the case in the past few offseasons and it didn't happen. I know the FO can change their mode of acquisitions but I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think it is pretty safe to say that most here agree that ‘18 will be a lost year, and ‘19 might be as well. And that the team should NOT make moves with the intention of gaining wins in ‘18.

But I have two sounder arguments for that...

1) If the org can acquire, through trade, a nice young player (JBJ, as a loose example) it may be OK. I am not %100 sold on ANYONE on the farm, so there may not be any price that is too high to get a young kid who could contribute for 5 or 6 years.

2) I work at a desk and listen KNBR pretty much all day. I alreaeady change the station most days when Gary starts to laugh or when Larry complains about how cheap the Giants owners are (how stupid of a comment is that?). And while I really like Brooks, I change the station when Fitz goes on his diatribes about how stupid it is for pitchers to hit, and for how cheap the Giants owners are. Without the Giants making a huge splash acquiring players this year, Kruger and Fitz will make KNBR nearly un-listenable for the next year or so.

 

[SFGRTB]

My point about Duggar is give him time as the team doesn't need to rush him either way. The "kids" are the other outfielders they currently have (i.e. Slater, Williamson, Parker). Finally give them extended looks to see whether they are worth keeping around. They plug in the holes in the outfield, for now at least. If they don't work out, a bunch of other outfielders, including Duggar, are coming up.

Openings in the lineup doesn't mean the Giants can improve, that just means they are looking for someone to plug in. See my last post about using free agents to plug those holes. I stated that I want to see the Giants do into rebuild but I know that they won't so I was trying to figure out how they plug in those holes. Typically, in the past few years, its been mainly through free agency. That is why I looked exclusively at that area. I realize that trades could happen this year but there have been some on this forum that have thought was the case in the past few offseasons and it didn't happen. I know the FO can change their mode of acquisitions but I'll believe it when I see it.

Technically the Giants don't have a single opening in their lineup. They could run out there with Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford, Sandoval, Austin McParker, Span and Pence on opening day, with Gorkys, Johnson/Vielma and Tomlinson off the bench.

The Giants can improve four of those spots though, hence why I used openings.

I don't think Duggar and Shaw and plan A and B to open the season, that would probably be a last resort. Look at the history of this team, even just last year. They aren't likely to give either the keys unless they really earn it and there's no one there.

 

[SFGRTB]

I think it is pretty safe to say that most here agree that ‘18 will be a lost year, and ‘19 might be as well. And that the team should NOT make moves with the intention of gaining wins in ‘18.

But I have two sounder arguments for that...

1) If the org can acquire, through trade, a nice young player (JBJ, as a loose example) it may be OK. I am not %100 sold on ANYONE on the farm, so there may not be any price that is too high to get a young kid who could contribute for 5 or 6 years.

2) I work at a desk and listen KNBR pretty much all day. I alreaeady change the station most days when Gary starts to laugh or when Larry complains about how cheap the Giants owners are (how stupid of a comment is that?). And while I really like Brooks, I change the station when Fitz goes on his diatribes about how stupid it is for pitchers to hit, and for how cheap the Giants owners are. Without the Giants making a huge splash acquiring players this year, Kruger and Fitz will make KNBR nearly un-listenable for the next year or so.

I'm really deep down hoping the Giants are able to swing a trade for a cusp prospect. Hopefully there's a desperate team out there somewhere.

I'm feeling a 3-team trade between us, Boston and someone else (ideally a team that would be interested in Panik), with Michael Chavis coming to SF.

Arroyo moves to 2nd, Chavis plays 3rd. Eventually Shaw and Duggar take over LF and CF. There's a youth movement for you that doesn't take 3+ years.

 

[LHG]

Technically the Giants don't have a single opening in their lineup. They could run out there with Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford, Sandoval, Austin McParker, Span and Pence on opening day, with Gorkys, Johnson/Vielma and Tomlinson off the bench.

The Giants can improve four of those spots though, hence why I used openings.

I don't think Duggar and Shaw and plan A and B to open the season, that would probably be a last resort. Look at the history of this team, even just last year. They aren't likely to give either the keys unless they really earn it and there's no one there.

That's true, but I'm trying to come at it from the point of view that says the veterans have a guaranteed spot and with the perspective that no one gets traded in the offseason (from said group of veterans). Unless the Giants go into full re-build, I don't like the idea of Panik being traded since he is the youngest of the bunch and plays good defense and has a decent bat. I'm much rather see Sandoval go but, yeah, there isn't nearly as much trade value there.

 

[LHG]

I'm really deep down hoping the Giants are able to swing a trade for a cusp prospect. Hopefully there's a desperate team out there somewhere.

I'm feeling a 3-team trade between us, Boston and someone else (ideally a team that would be interested in Panik), with Michael Chavis coming to SF.

Arroyo moves to 2nd, Chavis plays 3rd. Eventually Shaw and Duggar take over LF and CF. There's a youth movement for you that doesn't take 3+ years.

That I'd be good with.

 

[SFGRTB]

Here's the latest rumor. Not sure how good I feel about it. First of all, Melancon has a full no-trade clause and Shark has a partial no-trade clause. Jason Heyward also has a full no-trade clause. So right there, the likelihood of anything getting done is already pretty damn low.

Also, Melancon can opt-out after this upcoming season. Heyward can opt-out after this season as well, and after 2019 if he reaches 550 PAs.

Melancon would opt-out of $28M (has 3/$48M left), Heyward would opt out of $106M or $86M (has 6/$127.5M left). Shark has 3/$59.4 left, no opt-out.

So adding in all that, it makes this EVEN MORE complicated. The Cubs would probably have to throw in a prospect if no money exchanges hands to A: cover the greater amount of salary the Giants' take on and B: insurance for Heyward's opt-out.

AND on top of all that, I'm not even sure I like the fit! Heyward is the best defender in RF, there's no doubt about it. He is truly excellent and would be a fantastic fit in RF defensively in AT&T Park. BUT, his bat would be utterly replacement level, or even below, in AT&T Park. Is the defense worth the cost when we could probably find someone a tier below defensively and equal with the bat on the open market for literally hundreds of millions less (cough* DYSON *cough)?

Thoughts?

 

[LHG]

Checking out the 40 man roster at sfgiants.com and came across this article - Giants set wish list for Hot Stove season

Nothing too exciting but it does mention how the team is close to the luxury tax threshold and the ownership is going to set a ceiling, in the next few days, on what they will spend this offseason. I just don't see how they can make this team better either through free agency or trades. One puts them over the threshold and the other adds by subtraction, which, to me, puts them back at square one.

 

[LHG]

I think the most likely candidates for a dfa in the next week are Orlando Calixte, Roberto Gomez and Chase Johnson. However, I could see any of the three recent acquisitions (Micah Johnson, Pierce Johnson and Engelb Vielma), one of the two O lefties (Osich or Okert), Dan Slania and even Mac Williamson and Miguel Gomez being on the bubble as well.