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2018 Preseason USA Today Coaches Poll & Rankings Prediction

Across The Field

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Well We know Utah has finished ranked more times than Purdue in the past 4-5 years and probably will again this season.
Are those players from 4-5 years ago gonna be allowed to come back and play? All I know is Utah was a very average team last year, and so was Purdue. I also know Utah's win total has declined the last 2 seasons while Purdue has momentum.
 

ericd7633

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Purdue is slated to have an SOS somewhere near the top 5 in the nation and have 3 likely top 10 teams on their schedule with 2-3 other possible ranked teams. Utah doesn't compare.

Purdue has the 6th toughest SOS according to the FPI, Utah's is at 18. The main difference is Utah has a much easier OOC schedule. Again, Purdue's projects to be harder. The conference portion is a wash though. And if we're factoring in home/away Utah has a much tougher road schedule.
 

Deep Creek

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We'd know who is better between Utah and Purude if they'd play an OOC game.

We'd also know something similar if ALL P5 TEAMS WOULD SCHEDULE/PLAY BETTER OOC games!

Wouldn't it be great if we had games like:
Utah vs Purdue
Arizona vs Kentucky
Va Tech vs Stanford
Texas Tech vs Minnesota
Ole Miss vs Oregon
Okie Lite vs Northwestern
etc, etc, etc
 

Across The Field

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Purdue has the 6th toughest SOS according to the FPI, Utah's is at 18. The main difference is Utah has a much easier OOC schedule. Again, Purdue's projects to be harder. The conference portion is a wash though. And if we're factoring in home/away Utah has a much tougher road schedule.
19th

Utah has a significantly easier OOC schedule and an easier conference schedule. 4 of Purdue's conference foes won 10 games last year. 2 of Utah's did.

The only "tough" road games Utah has are Wazzou, who is returning the least amount of starters in the conference (lost 13 starters including their all-world QB), and a completely 1-dimensional Stanford team. Purdue travels to Michigan State the week after facing Ohio State at home. That's a lot tougher than playing @ Washington State and Stanford.
 

socaljim242

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Are those players from 4-5 years ago gonna be allowed to come back and play? All I know is Utah was a very average team last year, and so was Purdue. I also know Utah's win total has declined the last 2 seasons while Purdue has momentum.

lol. The Utah players as a group were better than the Purdue players in the past 45 years. Your sample size is one year? And this season Utah seems to be ahead of Purdue on any poll that either shows up on.
 

Across The Field

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lol. The Utah players as a group were better than the Purdue players in the past 45 years. Your sample size is one year? And this season Utah seems to be ahead of Purdue on any poll that either shows up on.
As they should be. With their schedule, Utah has a way better shot of being ranked than Purdue does. However, if you put the two teams on a neutral field, you're looking at a very tight game one way or another.
 

ericd7633

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19th

Utah has a significantly easier OOC schedule and an easier conference schedule. 4 of Purdue's conference foes won 10 games last year. 2 of Utah's did.

The only "tough" road games Utah has are Wazzou, who is returning the least amount of starters in the conference (lost 13 starters including their all-world QB), and a completely 1-dimensional Stanford team. Purdue travels to Michigan State the week after facing Ohio State at home. That's a lot tougher than playing @ Washington State and Stanford.

Oh sorry off by one. Point still remains. And yes, Utah does have a significantly easier OOC, which is why the conference schedules are basically a wash. Hell Utah's might rate out as harder on a game by game basis. If I had to guess it probably does.

Utah plays 5 road games against teams that went to a bowl, Purdue plays one, not sure there's any way to spin that, but I'm sure you'll try like hell. Lol.
 

Across The Field

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Oh sorry off by one. Point still remains. And yes, Utah does have a significantly easier OOC, which is why the conference schedules are basically a wash. Hell Utah's might rate out as harder on a game by game basis. If I had to guess it probably does.

Utah plays 5 road games against teams that went to a bowl, Purdue plays one, not sure there's any way to spin that, but I'm sure you'll try like hell. Lol.
This is hilarious. Utah's got a tougher conference schedule despite playing in an exponentially weaker conference, gotcha.

That's really cool that they play 5 road games against bowl teams. How did those teams do? Oh yeah, 4 of them got their shit pushed in and Stanford pulled off the biggest choke job in years. Wow, what a real murderers' row

:pound::pound::pound:
 

ericd7633

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This is hilarious. Utah's got a tougher conference schedule despite playing in an exponentially weaker conference, gotcha.

That's really cool that they play 5 road games against bowl teams. How did those teams do? Oh yeah, 4 of them got their shit pushed in and Stanford pulled off the biggest choke job in years. Wow, what a real murderers' row

:pound::pound::pound:

Purdue plays in the big 10 west. Utah also plays the 4 best teams in the North. There's this thing called unbalanced schedules. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out. If you replace Stanford with Oregon State and Oregon with Cal, I wouldn't be making this claim.

And last I looked, making a bowl game is better than not making it all, such was the case with Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and Nebraska.
 

Olyduck

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Purdue is slated to have an SOS somewhere near the top 5 in the nation and have 3 likely top 10 teams on their schedule with 2-3 other possible ranked teams. Utah doesn't compare.
And we all know that preseason projections of the SOS are really all that matters for how tough a schedule is going to be with 3 LIKELY top 10 teams and 2-3 OTHER possible ranked teams.

Did I do that right? like not a direct quote but you see what I did right?
 

WizardHawk

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Well, I'd argue for obvious reasons that the B1G was much better than the Pac12 last year, so you could say Purdue's 7-6 was even more impressive then.

It's a moot point. Fact is, if a team like Utah wins the Pac 12, something has gone wrong. There's no reason they should be beating USC or Washington.
This isn't the NFL where that kind of logic entirely holds true. All of the major conferences have overall strength/weakness vs other conferences, but each does their own thing team to team. There isn't one pro style offense and 3-4 types of defenses that are mostly similar. It's entirely wide open and varied. The teams see each other year to year. Purdue rising is a good sign for that program. If they are beating some of the top teams in the conference that too is awesome. It's still not something you can compare directly.

Utah was the only Pac team to win their bowl game against a mediocre WV, but they did what they were supposed to do and beat the team that was in front of them. Purdue beat a so so at best Zona team. Both ended high.

The Utes have been doing this for years though. They aren't a one off or up and coming team. When was the last time Purdue beat, or even took a top conf opponent to the wire? Utah does that every year.

comparing both as equal simply based off final win/loss is entirely baseless IMO and I've already spent too much time on this lol.
 

Across The Field

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Purdue plays in the big 10 west. Utah also plays the 4 best teams in the North. There's this thing called unbalanced schedules. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out. If you replace Stanford with Oregon State and Oregon with Cal, I wouldn't be making this claim.

And last I looked, making a bowl game is better than not making it all, such was the case with Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and Nebraska.
Other than Illinois, those teams could've made bowl teams if they got to face the garbage that plays in the Pac 12 instead of facing the B1G every year.
 

WizardHawk

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lol at projecting that obviously Purdue would beat Utah. That takes some novice level college football logic to say with a straight face.

The plain truth about last year (which says nearly nothing about this coming year) is Utah was down after suffering the loss of their starting QB for a couple of key games they played tight and lost by less than a TD. They lost to Stanford by 3 and mostly shut down Love and their running game and lost to USC by 1. Both with a simply horrible backup QB that UW cast off years ago as their 4th best QB.

Put their normal starter in and that easily should have been a 9 win campaign. It happens and it's part of the game, but it's also another example of why simply looking at W/L doesn't entirely tell you the whole story of how good/bad teams are to enough degree to find equivalence against teams from other conferences. It simply doesn't work. Like ever.
 

Across The Field

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And we all know that preseason projections of the SOS are really all that matters for how tough a schedule is going to be with 3 LIKELY top 10 teams and 2-3 OTHER possible ranked teams.

Did I do that right? like not a direct quote but you see what I did right?
Are you saying there's a good chance those 3 teams won't be top 10 or that any of the other teams won't be ranked?
 

Across The Field

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lol at projecting that obviously Purdue would beat Utah. That takes some novice level college football logic to say with a straight face.

The plain truth about last year (which says nearly nothing about this coming year) is Utah was down after suffering the loss of their starting QB for a couple of key games they played tight and lost by less than a TD. They lost to Stanford by 3 and mostly shut down Love and their running game and lost to USC by 1. Both with a simply horrible backup QB that UW cast off years ago as their 4th best QB.

Put their normal starter in and that easily should have been a 9 win campaign. It happens and it's part of the game, but it's also another example of why simply looking at W/L doesn't entirely tell you the whole story of how good/bad teams are to enough degree to find equivalence against teams from other conferences. It simply doesn't work. Like ever.
Not a single person has said that
 

Across The Field

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This isn't the NFL where that kind of logic entirely holds true. All of the major conferences have overall strength/weakness vs other conferences, but each does their own thing team to team. There isn't one pro style offense and 3-4 types of defenses that are mostly similar. It's entirely wide open and varied. The teams see each other year to year. Purdue rising is a good sign for that program. If they are beating some of the top teams in the conference that too is awesome. It's still not something you can compare directly.

Utah was the only Pac team to win their bowl game against a mediocre WV, but they did what they were supposed to do and beat the team that was in front of them. Purdue beat a so so at best Zona team. Both ended high.

The Utes have been doing this for years though. They aren't a one off or up and coming team. When was the last time Purdue beat, or even took a top conf opponent to the wire? Utah does that every year.

comparing both as equal simply based off final win/loss is entirely baseless IMO and I've already spent too much time on this lol.
Nothing you've said supports any argument. I've never once said Purdue stands up to Utah over the last 4-5 years. I said if Utah won the Pac 12 when they're coming off a 7-6 campaign, it'd be like Purdue winning the B1G coming off a 7-6 campaign. Neither situation would be a good thing at all for these respective conferences, but then again the difference between the top team in the B1G and Purdue and the top team in the Pac 12 and Utah is significant, so fair enough.

I hereby retract my statements comparing Purdue to Utah.

As @7Samurai13 said, Northwestern is probably a better example, and I agree.
 

WizardHawk

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Nothing you've said supports any argument. I've never once said Purdue stands up to Utah over the last 4-5 years. I said if Utah won the Pac 12 when they're coming off a 7-6 campaign, it'd be like Purdue winning the B1G coming off a 7-6 campaign. Neither situation would be a good thing at all for these respective conferences, but then again the difference between the top team in the B1G and Purdue and the top team in the Pac 12 and Utah is significant, so fair enough.

I hereby retract my statements comparing Purdue to Utah.

As @7Samurai13 said, Northwestern is probably a better example, and I agree.
The original point was started when I said Utah was a legit test for UW this year. In fact, I personally worry more about that game than Stanford and I'll breath a sigh of relief if they come out of there with a win. They have a top flight defense that gives pretty much everyone fits, their HC has been playing against Petersen for over a decade going back to their G5 days, and it's a very early season road game for UW when Utah is still likely to be at full strength so the advantage that UW has with depth is likely not in play. Add in that Utah plays no one before that game and UW plays Auburn and Utah also has the edge on being able to keep more of their playbook on ice coming into it.

That's the bottom line. It's not a fake crappy cake walk game and no amount of comparing them to a downtrodden team that had an uptick season will change that.
 

Across The Field

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The original point was started when I said Utah was a legit test for UW this year. In fact, I personally worry more about that game than Stanford and I'll breath a sigh of relief if they come out of there with a win. They have a top flight defense that gives pretty much everyone fits, their HC has been playing against Petersen for over a decade going back to their G5 days, and it's a very early season road game for UW when Utah is still likely to be at full strength so the advantage that UW has with depth is likely not in play. Add in that Utah plays no one before that game and UW plays Auburn and Utah also has the edge on being able to keep more of their playbook on ice coming into it.

That's the bottom line. It's not a fake crappy cake walk game and no amount of comparing them to a downtrodden team that had an uptick season will change that.
I think you have me confused with someone else. I don't remember talking about Washington's schedule.
 

ericd7633

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Other than Illinois, those teams could've made bowl teams if they got to face the garbage that plays in the Pac 12 instead of facing the B1G every year.

Lmao. Michigan was able to get to a bowl game without beating a single team that finished the regular season with a winning record. And Nebraska would have if they didn't lose to NIU and a team from the Pac 12, so they definitely don't count. Minnesota got MSU, Michigan and Maryland from the East and still couldn't make one.
 

WizardHawk

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I think you have me confused with someone else. I don't remember talking about Washington's schedule.
No, I'm saying that was the point I originally was making before it went off on this side tangent.

Many media types from around the conf are picking Utah to win the South and I'm not convinced at all that is likely. Utah plays every single team with even a remote pulse in the Pac. They only miss Cal and Oregon State ffs. They are dangerous and will have upsets, but I don't see them having the consistency to end up better than USC and maybe Zona. I still expect USC to take the South.

However timing and match ups are everything and the UW at Utah game early sets up as a potential pitfall even if on paper I'd give the edge to UW in unit to unit comparisons.
 
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