2018 Chicago Bears Season Props

[Wamu]

Is this an appropriate thread to make fun of Jay Cutler?

 

[richig07]

When I say ball hawk, I mean someone who excels at picking off a lot of passes. Players have to earn that title. Jackson Amos and Fuller haven’t done that yet in their NFL careers. Other than Fullers 4 picks his rookie year, none of these players had more than two in a season.

Well, no one has earned the title. However, they haven't exactly gotten a chance to do so yet either. All of our starting DB's certainly have shown ball-hawking tendencies. It's just a matter of opportunity. We haven't been playing with a lead much and I can't remember many times a team had to throw 45+ on us in the past two seasons. Most of those picks have come in games where we did lead and the other team DID feel some sense of desperation. For example, the Carolina game.

I hear what you're saying on the matter, but our secondary looks pretty sharp to me.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

Well, no one has earned the title. However, they haven't exactly gotten a chance to do so yet either. All of our starting DB's certainly have shown ball-hawking tendencies. It's just a matter of opportunity. We haven't been playing with a lead much and I can't remember many times a team had to throw 45+ on us in the past two seasons. Most of those picks have come in games where we did lead and the other team DID feel some sense of desperation. For example, the Carolina game.

I hear what you're saying on the matter, but our secondary looks pretty sharp to me.

They CAN be good. They got to show it now. I think they can do it, but only time will tell. The scary thing about our defense is that’s the case at a lot of positions. Well, that and injuries. That’s the same with our offense. This season has a wide range of outcomes for our team. If everything goes our way we could make the playoffs. If our key players don’t perform like we expect them to, and/or we have a lot of injuries, it’s going to be a frustrating year. This will be the year That team success will weigh heavily on paces career with the bears.

 

[richig07]

They CAN be good. They got to show it now. I think they can do it, but only time will tell. The scary thing about our defense is that’s the case at a lot of positions. Well, that and injuries. That’s the same with our offense. This season has a wide range of outcomes for our team. If everything goes our way we could make the playoffs. If our key players don’t perform like we expect them to, and/or we have a lot of injuries, it’s going to be a frustrating year. This will be the year That team success will weigh heavily on paces career with the bears.

This is still viewed as a developmental year to the majority of this fan-base. Definitely to outsiders. Very few look at us as a playoff team in 2018. Generally speaking, those aren't our expectations. Meaning, we could stumble along and most folks will still give it until the following season to crank up the panic. I agree winning football games is now a factor with Pace. However, it's still not the ENTIRE thing. We're getting there - but it's still kind of about "development" at this stage. Just by a nose.

Pace's career doesn't hinge on 2018. However, it DOES hinge on success under Nagy (which also obviously means success with Trubs... but I digress). Which is within this upcoming 2-3 year time-frame.

2019 - Without a shadow of a doubt, the expectation will be post-season or a lot of unrest will re-emerge.

2020 - This would be the "gun to the head" season for Pace/Nagy


That's barring something extremely unforeseen, of course. Obviously, catastrophe's can happen. We're not too far removed from one ourselves.

 

[noonthirtyjoe]

Is this an appropriate thread to make fun of Jay Cutler?

View attachment 179347

Al was a running back. Scored 4 tds in state championship game.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Neat nugget I've been looking into recently is just gameflow (partially because I am going to be active in fantasy this year) is just run/pass ratio. Particularly in the first half when I can find it.

Nagy/Chiefs were dead last in pass/run ratio in the first half. Analytics people will like it, but probably not good for Howard's O/U total. IIRC the Bears were actually on the opposite end of the spectrum.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

This is still viewed as a developmental year to the majority of this fan-base. Definitely to outsiders. Very few look at us as a playoff team in 2018. Generally speaking, those aren't our expectations. Meaning, we could stumble along and most folks will still give it until the following season to crank up the panic. I agree winning football games is now a factor with Pace. However, it's still not the ENTIRE thing. We're getting there - but it's still kind of about "development" at this stage. Just by a nose.

Pace's career doesn't hinge on 2018. However, it DOES hinge on success under Nagy (which also obviously means success with Trubs... but I digress). Which is within this upcoming 2-3 year time-frame.

2019 - Without a shadow of a doubt, the expectation will be post-season or a lot of unrest will re-emerge.

2020 - This would be the "gun to the head" season for Pace/Nagy


That's barring something extremely unforeseen, of course. Obviously, catastrophe's can happen. We're not too far removed from one ourselves.

I mostly agree, but if we have less than 5 wins this year, I think Pace is much more on the hot seat in 2019. If we’re in the 6-9 wins range, Pace adds another year to his timeframe. I think we fall within the 6 to 9 wins range. If we make the playoffs, then he’s definitely good until 2020.

 

[richig07]

I mostly agree, but if we have less than 5 wins this year, I think Pace is much more on the hot seat in 2019. If we’re in the 6-9 wins range, Pace adds another year to his timeframe. I think we fall within the 6 to 9 wins range. If we make the playoffs, then he’s definitely good until 2020.

Yeah, I agree with that. Winning less than 5 games would be an undoubted failure. Especially if it includes Trubisky not progressing.

If we go 7-9/8-8 and Trubisky plays admirably. They can sell that as being "on schedule".

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Pace's career doesn't hinge on 2018. However, it DOES hinge on success under Nagy (which also obviously means success with Trubs... but I digress). Which is within this upcoming 2-3 year time-frame.

2019 - Without a shadow of a doubt, the expectation will be post-season or a lot of unrest will re-emerge.

2020 - This would be the "gun to the head" season for Pace/Nagy

That's barring something extremely unforeseen, of course. Obviously, catastrophe's can happen. We're not too far removed from one ourselves.

I'm pretty much in agreement with this timeline. And the Bears would have to go 0-16 for Pace to even be remotely in jeopardy of losing his job. Like most everyone else here, I'll naturally hope for the best this year, but I see a much improved Bears club just missing out on the playoffs. In fact, I think an easy prediction will be at least 3,4, maybe even 5 games in which we say woulda coulda shoulda. Absolutely feel that by 2019 we'll be considered a bonafide playoff team, and 2020 will see us at the very least winning in the postseason, maybe even making it to the big enchilada.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Oh, and I forgot one thing that's worth mentioning. LAST year I predicted to my brother that in 2020 the Bears would have one of the league's top 5 offenses. Of course my brother, a true Chicago pessimist who thinks the Bears will still have a losing record that year, thinks I'm smoking rope, but fuck him, I'm sticking with it.

 

[richig07]

In fact, I think an easy prediction will be at least 3,4, maybe even 5 games in which we say woulda coulda shoulda.

This is what I'm hoping changes under Nagy.

Under Trestman and Fox. We very, VERY rarely came out on the right side of those 50/50 games that went down to the wire. We handed away so many.

2013 - at Washington, vs Detroit, at Minnesota... literally ZERO business losing any of those. You could argue GB week 17 too, obviously. However, the GB game was tightly contested and it's Rodgers. Those three losses... my goodness. Talk about handing it away on a platter.

Just ONE of those games and we could have rested our starters in that damn GB week 17 game. The Trestman decision to kick a 48 yard field goal on 2nd down in overtime STILL haunts me. WTF!!!!????

2014 - Bleck... no need to even look back into that

2015 - This was a big one for giving away games. At Detroit (had one thousand chances to put this one away - lost in OT), Minnesota (20-10 lead with 3 minutes left), vs SF (Blown late lead to Gabbert, Gould miss in final seconds and lose on bomb in OT), vs WSH the next week (another Gould miss late to lose)

2016 - Magically blew a late 20-10 lead to Jacksonville and a late lead against Indy... we also were tormented by injuries, but these were early when the season wasn't totally lost yet.

2017 - ATL week 1, vs Minnesota (sorry, but going into half 3-2 was a joke... we dominated that first half), vs Detroit (blown double digit lead, failed to distance ourselves and missed a FG late after great Trub drive), vs SF (Led nearly the entire game until the final seconds ticked off, got up by one score and felt comfortable for whatever reason)

Just so many damn games where we outplayed our opponent - let up with a lead or handed it all away in the final minutes. Just ZERO killer instinct. I think that comes with a losing culture. We played with a lot of fear in our hearts. When we get a lead with this new regime, it has to be kill time. Not "hold on for dear life!" time.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

I too hope we can keep those woulda coulda shoulda post game feelings to a minimum. Like you said, there have been games that we lost even tho we outplayed the opponents. I suspect there will be more of those this year as well, but unlike previous years, where it was kind of the old adage that we often snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, I think when we lose the close ones this year, and we will lose a few of those, it will be more like maybe if just one or two plays or situations had gone the other way, we might have won them. I guess what I'm saying (in a confusing way) is we're going to start honing in on what it takes to be a winning, post season team. A few growing pains here and there, but the arrow is finally pointing upward.

 

[averagejoe]

2. Jordan Howard rushing yards, over/under: 999 1/2

Under. This is going to be a more pass heavy team than people think, imo.

Not to poke holes in your theory, but when Nagy ran the 2017 KC offense, Alex Smith threw for the most yards EVER in his career. (And threw for the most TD - EVER.) Yet, RB Kareem Hunt still rumbled for over 1300 yards.
I don't see that changing with Howard.

 

[averagejoe]

Is this an appropriate thread to make fun of Jay Cutler?

View attachment 179347

Al was a running back. Scored 4 tds in state championship game.

Missed a chance to post Uncle Rico?