2017 NL CENTRAL DISCUSSION

[Clayton]

I don't think a drop to 3rd now is really out of the question if their pitching is that challenged.

Martinez should be a top 10 pitcher in the NL.

Certainly if Lynn and Wacha don't bounce back then they are going to be scrambling. A likely scenario with them being a playoff team would have Lynn and Wacha being the #2 or #3 in a playoff series and having a respectable year. If thats a bridge too far then you're looking at the team leaning on Leake, Waino and Weaver and the Cardinals will be a lot closer to 3rd or even 4th place than pushing for 1st.

I do think the position players have the potential to be something special and I think the Cardinals have a tendency to pull players out of thin air so I still don't see 3rd or 4th place being likely but its baseball. It could certainly happen.

 

[JohnU]

I do think the position players have the potential to be something special and I think the Cardinals have a tendency to pull players out of thin air so I still don't see 3rd or 4th place being likely but its baseball. It could certainly happen.

It probably isn't wise to depend on thin air anymore in baseball. But I suppose they can deal from strength if their farm system has any horses.

 

[Clayton]

It probably isn't wise to depend on thin air

I don't think they depend on it but the Cardinals usually need it. They certainly go through more waves of good and bad luck than any team I follow.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

It pays to notice that they also see the Royals losing 91 games. I suppose there are some metrics that support that but it's hard for me to see them falling below the Twins and the Sox.

I tend to agree, and history has shown that BP has a hell of a time with the Royals - if I remember correctly, they were projecting 90-or-so-loss seasons the two years they made the world series.

They're just projections. I do respect BP quite a bit though and as I understand it, their PECOTA player projections are the most accurate projections publicly available. That said, clearly the have the ability to miss and do.

 

[JohnU]

They're just projections. I do respect BP quite a bit though and as I understand it, their PECOTA player projections are the most accurate projections publicly available. That said, clearly the have the ability to miss and do.

As we all know, we can only evaluate a team based on what it has, not what it will get as spring rolls along ... or will lose, as the Reyes injury reminds us. Hell, they haven't even played an intrasquad game yet and have already lost a key player.

 

[soxfan1468927]

I don't think a drop to 3rd now is really out of the question if their pitching is that challenged.

Wow. Can't see the Brewers winning 76 games. I think they are one of the 3 worst teams in baseball.

Edit: Meant to quote the baseball prospectus article.

 

[navamind]

Wow. Can't see the Brewers winning 76 games. I think they are one of the 3 worst teams in baseball.

Edit: Meant to quote the baseball prospectus article.

Especially having them tied with a 76 win Cardinals team. I'd love to see the Cards fall off like that, but I don't see it.

 

[JohnU]

Especially having them tied with a 76 win Cardinals team. I'd love to see the Cards fall off like that, but I don't see it.

As a bonafide homer, I can see the Reds getting to 80 wins IF a couple of things go right. And, that means having pitchers who were 0-7 with a 7.00 ERA actually coming to the park and pitching and having Billy Hamilton on the field and on the bases.

I can see St. Louis with 85 wins, maybe 90 if the rest of the division sucks like the metrics claim it will. But the Cardinals are depending on pitchers who aren't streak stoppers. Martinez might be that guy eventually.

 

[bksballer89]

McCutchen on RF move: 'It wasn't an ask'

 

[JohnU]

McCutchen on RF move: 'It wasn't an ask'

Why do I just know he will be back in CF by the end of May?

 

[Iffster]

Reds To Sign Ryan Raburn

 

[JohnU]

Reds To Sign Ryan Raburn

He’ll earn $900K if he can crack the MLB roster, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets.

Because everyone needs a left fielder at Louisville. This guy's chances of making the Reds are about the same as mine. HINT: The Reds don't need 3 guys to "spell" Schebler in right field. He is not likely to get all that tired.

 

[VikingFan2k2]

McCutchen on RF move: 'It wasn't an ask'

So is this just Pittsburgh changing the guard? Marte is a good player and probably will get better, but he's not what McCutchen was and has meant to that team and city.

I know he had easily his worst year last year, but this is kind of insulting to him. Unless he's just slipped that badly defensively, but I think that I would have at least heard about that.

 

[JohnU]

I would like to read some unofficial official fan assessments of their favorite NL-C teams. I will defer to anybody who is unofficially officially smarter about the Reds than I am. All I can say for sure now is that the roster is fairly certain.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Just saw an article that Daniel Bard was attempting a comeback with the Cardinals. Curious, I looked up his stats since he left the Red Sox. He has 15 professional appearances (he left in 2013).

4 IP, 28 earned runs, 31 walks, 17 hit batsmen, 10 wild pitches, 2 strike outs.

Daniel Bard’s Filthy Whiffmaker | NotGraphs Baseball

Can't believe it's the same guy.

 

[JohnU]

Just saw an article that Daniel Bard was attempting a comeback with the Cardinals. Curious, I looked up his stats since he left the Red Sox. He has 15 professional appearances (he left in 2013).

4 IP, 28 earned runs, 31 walks, 17 hit batsmen, 10 wild pitches, 2 strike outs.

Daniel Bard’s Filthy Whiffmaker | NotGraphs Baseball

Can't believe it's the same guy.

Those numbers would suggest he has the Yips.

 

[VikingFan2k2]

Just saw an article that Daniel Bard was attempting a comeback with the Cardinals. Curious, I looked up his stats since he left the Red Sox. He has 15 professional appearances (he left in 2013).

4 IP, 28 earned runs, 31 walks, 17 hit batsmen, 10 wild pitches, 2 strike outs.

Daniel Bard’s Filthy Whiffmaker | NotGraphs Baseball

Can't believe it's the same guy.

Damn. Just damn...

He was good. I don't think I've ever seen a pitching line like that.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

Martinez should be a top 10 pitcher in the NL.

Certainly if Lynn and Wacha don't bounce back then they are going to be scrambling. A likely scenario with them being a playoff team would have Lynn and Wacha being the #2 or #3 in a playoff series and having a respectable year. If thats a bridge too far then you're looking at the team leaning on Leake, Waino and Weaver and the Cardinals will be a lot closer to 3rd or even 4th place than pushing for 1st.

I do think the position players have the potential to be something special and I think the Cardinals have a tendency to pull players out of thin air so I still don't see 3rd or 4th place being likely but its baseball. It could certainly happen.

I don't understand why anyone thinks the cardinals are going to be anything better than 500 this year. Their core is getting over the hill (carp and Yadi). Wong doesn't look like he will fulfill the star like potential that was thrust upon him. Dexter Fowler was a nice add, but I don't see him repeating the kind of production he had with the Cubs. I have a feeling Gyorko falls back to earth and Grichuk continues to struggle at the plate this year as well.

Their young phenom prospect is getting tommy John (which sucks). The pitching staff looks really weak to me because of that injury. I don't really expect a bounce back from wacha. I was never high on Lynn. Waino is not even close to what he used to be. And Leake is average at best. Maybe Weaver surprises us all, but a lot more needs to happen to that staff to make me a believer.

I just see several holes on the Cardinals. Most of my friends who are cardinal fans think they will be vying for a playoff spot, but I seriously doubt it. This year is going to be a long year for the cards and their fans.

 

[Clayton]

I don't understand why anyone thinks the cardinals are going to be anything better than 500 this year.

You're low on every single Cardinals player that could go either way.

If Carpenter, Yadi, Lynn, Wacha, Wong, Fowler, Waino, Gyorko, Grichik and Leake are all bad then yeah, the Cards are in for a long year. Thats a whole heck of a lot of negativity, though.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

You're low on every single Cardinals player that could go either way.

If Carpenter, Yadi, Lynn, Wacha, Wong, Fowler, Waino, Gyorko, Grichik and Leake are all bad then yeah, the Cards are in for a long year. Thats a whole heck of a lot of negativity, though.

There's reason to be down on each player though. Fowler, Carp, and Piscotty are the only three players that I think will perform well throughout the season. You will get flashes from other players, but I honestly do not know of a year in which the cardinals have looked this lackluster going into spring training. The offense looks average to me, the defense is slightly above, but the pitching looks like a load of crap with Reyes out. Reyes could've turned into that staff ace that the cardinals need right now. Had Reyes been healthy you might have a pretty good pitching staff, but without him you have Martinez (who is probably best suited for the 2nd position, but not a staff ace and definitely not a top ten talent.) and a bunch of MOR guys.