2015 Rosterbation

[Mays-Fan]

Obviously, this is just one scenario among many. But adios Romo, Morse, Panda, Guti. Hello to FA's in bold. All non-fixed salaries I pulled directly out of my Bumgarner. Exactly where Buster plays here is unknown - some C, some 1B, perhaps some 3B. Belt may play some LF here when Buster plays 1B.

 

[calsnowskier]

I am OK with Boney coming in as a stop-gap 3B safety net. He is good enough to start, but will face competition from Arias, Duffy and Craw for PT (Craw only if EA pushes for time at SS).

Not really interested in Rasmus, but I am not sure there are other, more attractive options. As I mentioned earlier, I am distancing myself from Tomas because of price-tag and defensive concerns. Morse was not on my radar last year, so I expect another below-radar guy will get the call this year. Probably a trade.

I think the Giants will more than just "kick the tires" on the protected FA SPs this year, though. With a LATE 1st rounder, forfeiting the pick will not be as bad as in prior years. I think Scherzer and Lester will both get some healthy offers from the Giants. Maybe even "Moderate Game" James, but he may not be "good enough" for the Giants to lose the pick.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I am OK with Boney coming in as a stop-gap 3B safety net. He is good enough to start, but will face competition from Arias, Duffy and Craw for PT (Craw only if EA pushes for time at SS).

Not really interested in Rasmus, but I am not sure there are other, more attractive options. As I mentioned earlier, I am distancing myself from Tomas because of price-tag and defensive concerns. Morse was not on my radar last year, so I expect another below-radar guy will get the call this year. Probably a trade.

I think the Giants will more than just "kick the tires" on the protected FA SPs this year, though. With a LATE 1st rounder, forfeiting the pick will not be as bad as in prior years. I think Scherzer and Lester will both get some healthy offers from the Giants. Maybe even "Moderate Game" James, but he may not be "good enough" for the Giants to lose the pick.

Pretty much agree with you on all points. What I like about Elboni is he has good speed and we can bat him leadoff if Perez can't go. And he had a more reasonable .692 OPS before he was traded to Atlanta, which is not horrible for a guy who can steal 20-25 bases.

I'm not excited about Rasmus either, but as you say, there's not much else out there. I don't want to overpay for some declining has-been.

And I would be OK to not sign Elboni and/or Vogey if it meant we could make a serious run at a front-line SP.

 

[tzill]

SF Giants Payroll 2015

Budget assumptions: For 2015 payroll, in rough terms, start with 2014. BBRef has us at $166.6mm, which needs to be adjusted for Peavy. BBRef has us at $14.5 - $3.0 or $11.5 net. We only net paid Peavy $2mm, per MLBTR. So subtract $11.5 - 2.0 = 9.5 from $166.6, and we are at an adjusted $157mm for 2014. Add 7% for FO payroll expansion, about $11mm, and we are at $168mm for 2015. Nothing new here, just reasonable estimation on my part, IMO. We may go a few million higher because of WSC III.

Starting Pitchers (5)
Timmy $18.0 fixed
Cain $20.0 fixed
Hudson $12.0 fixed
Vogey $6.0 fixed FA
Bum $6.75 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $62.75

Bullpen (7)
Lopez $4.0 fixed
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Casilla $5.0 fixed
Machi $0.5 Pre-Arb-2
Strickland $0.5
Petit $2.5 Arb-2
1 other $0.5

# Bullpen Subtotal $19.0

C/IF (8)
Buster $16.5 fixed
HSan $1.0 Arb-1
Susac $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $4.5 Arb-2
Panik $0.5 Pre-Arb
Craw $2.0 Arb-1
Arias $1.45 fixed
Emilio Bonifacio 4.0 FA

# C/IF Subtotal $30.45

OF (5)
Pagan $10.25 fixed
Pence $18.5 fixed
Blanco $3.5 Arb-2
Colby Rasmus $10.0 FA
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Williamson/Perez/Brown/Carbonell)

# OF Subtotal $42.75

Off roster: Scutaro $6.7 fixed

Prelim Total $161.65 (25 players + Scoots)
This leaves us appx $8mm-$12mm to sign another SP or OF if needed.

I went at it this way: We have 127.2 committed to 12 players next year (Cain, Pence, Lincecum, Posey, Hudson, Pagan, Bumgarner, Scutaro, Affeldt, Casilla, Lopez, Arias). We have 4 guys almost certain to get arb (Petit -3, Belt - 5, Crawford - 4, Blanco -3). That's about 142. We have 3 FAs likely (Vogey - 7, Romo - 6, Sandoval - 17). That's 172 with six spots open. Five get filled internally at 500k each (Machi, Susac, Strickland, Panik, Carbonell). That's 175, which leaves us about 14MM below the luxury tax, with one spot to fill (OF).

 

[MarcoPolo]

SF Giants Payroll 2015

Budget assumptions: For 2015 payroll, in rough terms, start with 2014. BBRef has us at $166.6mm, which needs to be adjusted for Peavy. BBRef has us at $14.5 - $3.0 or $11.5 net. We only net paid Peavy $2mm, per MLBTR. So subtract $11.5 - 2.0 = 9.5 from $166.6, and we are at an adjusted $157mm for 2014. Add 7% for FO payroll expansion, about $11mm, and we are at $168mm for 2015. Nothing new here, just reasonable estimation on my part, IMO. We may go a few million higher because of WSC III.

Starting Pitchers (5)
Timmy $18.0 fixed
Cain $20.0 fixed
Hudson $12.0 fixed
Vogey $6.0 fixed FA
Bum $6.75 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $62.75

Bullpen (7)
Lopez $4.0 fixed
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Casilla $5.0 fixed
Machi $0.5 Pre-Arb-2
Strickland $0.5
Petit $2.5 Arb-2
1 other $0.5

# Bullpen Subtotal $19.0

C/IF (8)
Buster $16.5 fixed
HSan $1.0 Arb-1
Susac $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $4.5 Arb-2
Panik $0.5 Pre-Arb
Craw $2.0 Arb-1
Arias $1.45 fixed
Emilio Bonifacio 4.0 FA

# C/IF Subtotal $30.45

OF (5)
Pagan $10.25 fixed
Pence $18.5 fixed
Blanco $3.5 Arb-2
Colby Rasmus $10.0 FA
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Williamson/Perez/Brown/Carbonell)

# OF Subtotal $42.75

Off roster: Scutaro $6.7 fixed

Prelim Total $161.65 (25 players + Scoots)
This leaves us appx $8mm-$12mm to sign another SP or OF if needed.

Your figures aren't quite right. In the NFL, they would be called "salary cap numbers". In baseball, I guess they'd be called "competitive balance tax (CBT) salary numbers". For the luxury tax (CBT) any signing bonus is spread out equally over the life of the guaranteed contract (and deferred amounts are ignored). The figures you list seem to be CBT amounts - for example, Affeldt will receive $5M in salary next year, but he got a $3M bonus upon signing a 3 year contract, so that matches the $6M you say he is earning for 2015. But he is only getting $5M next year. (Cot's salary spreadsheet lists "CBT" numbers, you have to read the text of each players contract.) Same with Pagan. And why do you list THREE catchers (HSan, Posey, Susac)? That ain't gonna happen. I also think that Belt's supposed salary is inflated, due to his poor performance this season.

And tossing in Vogelsong, Emilio Bonifacio, and Colby Rasmus is just pure speculation. Not to mention all the arbitration numbers you made up. Sorry, I just don't buy it.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Your figures aren't quite right. In the NFL, they would be called "salary cap numbers". In baseball, I guess they'd be called "competitive balance tax (CBT) salary numbers". For the luxury tax (CBT) any signing bonus is spread out equally over the life of the guaranteed contract (and deferred amounts are ignored). The figures you list seem to be CBT amounts - for example, Affeldt will receive $5M in salary next year, but he got a $3M bonus upon signing a 3 year contract, so that matches the $6M you say he is earning for 2015. But he is only getting $5M next year. (Cot's salary spreadsheet lists "CBT" numbers, you have to read the text of each players contract.) Same with Pagan. And why do you list THREE catchers (HSan, Posey, Susac)? That ain't gonna happen. I also think that Belt's supposed salary is inflated, due to his poor performance this season.

And tossing in Vogelsong, Emilio Bonifacio, and Colby Rasmus is just pure speculation. Not to mention all the arbitration numbers you made up. Sorry, I just don't buy it.

I took my salary numbers from BBRef.

As for your other objections, you have to read the post immediately following. One scenario among many.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I went at it this way: We have 127.2 committed to 12 players next year (Cain, Pence, Lincecum, Posey, Hudson, Pagan, Bumgarner, Scutaro, Affeldt, Casilla, Lopez, Arias). We have 4 guys almost certain to get arb (Petit -3, Belt - 5, Crawford - 4, Blanco -3). That's about 142. We have 3 FAs likely (Vogey - 7, Romo - 6, Sandoval - 17). That's 172 with six spots open. Five get filled internally at 500k each (Machi, Susac, Strickland, Panik, Carbonell). That's 175, which leaves us about 14MM below the luxury tax, with one spot to fill (OF).

Yeah, that's another viable scenario. My issues with that are that:
1) You assume we are resigning Panda. While the odds of that have probably increased, I'm not sure we will win the bidding, or even want to. My heart says sign him, but my head says we will regret that down the road.
2) you don't address our need for an outfielder. Maybe moving Belt is viable, but maybe not. IMHO, if we don't get an outfielder, we are asking for trouble.
3) your total payroll may get a little steep, but it's not my money. Could be solved by not resigning Romo. Tough call on him. Again, my heart says yes, but...

 

[Mays-Fan]

Yeah, that's another viable scenario. My issues with that are that:
1) You assume we are resigning Panda. While the odds of that have probably increased, I'm not sure we will win the bidding, or even want to. My heart says sign him, but my head says we will regret that down the road.
2) you don't address our need for an outfielder. Maybe moving Belt is viable, but maybe not. IMHO, if we don't get an outfielder, we are asking for trouble.
3) your total payroll may get a little steep, but it's not my money. Could be solved by not resigning Romo. Tough call on him. Again, my heart says yes, but...

Also, if Posey is to transition away from catcher, then we will likely need another catcher, Susac's status with you notwithstanding.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Pretty much agree with you on all points. What I like about Elboni is he has good speed and we can bat him leadoff if Perez can't go. And he had a more reasonable .692 OPS before he was traded to Atlanta, which is not horrible for a guy who can steal 20-25 bases.

I'm not excited about Rasmus either, but as you say, there's not much else out there. I don't want to overpay for some declining has-been.

And I would be OK to not sign Elboni and/or Vogey if it meant we could make a serious run at a front-line SP.

Meant to say if Pagan can't go.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Your figures aren't quite right. In the NFL, they would be called "salary cap numbers". In baseball, I guess they'd be called "competitive balance tax (CBT) salary numbers". For the luxury tax (CBT) any signing bonus is spread out equally over the life of the guaranteed contract (and deferred amounts are ignored). The figures you list seem to be CBT amounts - for example, Affeldt will receive $5M in salary next year, but he got a $3M bonus upon signing a 3 year contract, so that matches the $6M you say he is earning for 2015. But he is only getting $5M next year. (Cot's salary spreadsheet lists "CBT" numbers, you have to read the text of each players contract.) Same with Pagan.

So it looks like BBRef has the CBT numbers, as you say. I agree with you here that what I would like to do is look more at the FO's cash flow numbers - "Decreases to Cash" for salaries in that sense. That would be more precise in determining where the FO may want to be in terms of predicting their cash outlays for salary in a given year.

But the main point to me is not the absolute level of salaries in 2014-2015, but the relative amount of increase from year to year, which addresses the core issue as a fan of: How much more can we afford to achieve the level of player quality we seek? At least the BBRef numbers give us a basis to determine that increase, thus driving the roster moves.

In the end, it's all a SWAG anyway for us the fans. What the FO bases their total player salary level on is anyone's guess, outside of the FO.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Is the coast clear enough for us to consider signing Melky Cabrera back as a FA OF?

PED's aside, he sure would look good for us in LF.

MLBTR thinks it would take 5/66 to do it. Yikes. I might consider 3/40.

Free Agent Profile: Melky Cabrera ? MLB Trade Rumors

 

[calsnowskier]

Is the coast clear enough for us to consider signing Melky Cabrera back as a FA OF?

PED's aside, he sure would look good for us in LF.

MLBTR thinks it would take 5/66 to do it. Yikes. I might consider 3/40.

Free Agent Profile: Melky Cabrera ? MLB Trade Rumors

I read somewhere a few weeks back (sorry, I have no idea where) that Romo was actively championing his return and that the animosity towards him from the clubhouse was not as bad as reported.

That said, I don't think the PsTB are ready to add "those" players via FA yet.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I read somewhere a few weeks back (sorry, I have no idea where) that Romo was actively championing his return and that the animosity towards him from the clubhouse was not as bad as reported.

That said, I don't think the PsTB are ready to add "those" players via FA yet.

From the MLBTR article:

"Personal

Cabrera has fit in well to a Blue Jays clubhouse that features a number of his countrymen in Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista and Juan Francisco, among others. He was also well-liked in San Francisco, even after his suspension. At the time, Sergio Romo made it clear that Cabrera would have been welcomed back with open arms, asking, “Why wouldn’t we want him on our team?” and referring to Cabrera as “a great teammate.”

Cabrera has taken an active role in the community in his native Dominican Republic, organizing youth league tournaments (Spanish link) and encouraging children to stay diligent with their studies while chasing their baseball dreams. Cabrera also donated both cash and food to his home country following the hurricanes of 2007 and was honored with the 2008 Munson Award for his “excellence and philanthropic work in the community,” per the Blue Jays’ media guide."

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

He seems to be a decent guy who made some bad decisions, which, in the big picture, weren't horrific by any means. We all deserve forgiveness and a second chance. I would hope the cause of his transgressions are now much more under control - by the league, by the team, and most importantly, by him. He could actually leverage his history if he was open about his past issues, and used that to counsel others, particularly kids.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I read somewhere a few weeks back (sorry, I have no idea where) that Romo was actively championing his return and that the animosity towards him from the clubhouse was not as bad as reported.

That said, I don't think the PsTB are ready to add "those" players via FA yet.

And in a scrap-heap OF move to make budget, say if we do sign Panda or Scherzer/Lester, would we look at Nate Schierholtz again? Would he look at us? If any animosity that once existed is gone, I sure liked his arm in RF.


Bang, bang.

 

[calsnowskier]

And in a scrap-heap OF move to make budget, say if we do sign Panda or Scherzer/Lester, would we look at Nate Schierholtz again? Would he look at us? If any animosity that once existed is gone, I sure liked his arm in RF.


Bang, bang.

I am not sure how many Nate will have around the league. He is right back into his journeyman-4th OF rep. When you have that tag, you can't really afford to have animosity towards any team.

That said, I think if the Giants were to offer him the exact $$ and opportunity as another team, he would probably go with the other team. He and Bochy did not exactly see eye to eye.

I think he fits as a GREAT 4 option for us. I just don't see it happening. Frandsen will come back sooner than Nate.

 

[tzill]

Yeah, that's another viable scenario. My issues with that are that:
1) You assume we are resigning Panda. While the odds of that have probably increased, I'm not sure we will win the bidding, or even want to. My heart says sign him, but my head says we will regret that down the road.
2) you don't address our need for an outfielder. Maybe moving Belt is viable, but maybe not. IMHO, if we don't get an outfielder, we are asking for trouble.
3) your total payroll may get a little steep, but it's not my money. Could be solved by not resigning Romo. Tough call on him. Again, my heart says yes, but...

Whelp:
1) I put a lot of stock in what SabeySabes said a couple of months ago "When have we ever really wanted to retain one of our guys and not been able to do it?"
2) Agreed. We need a FA OF for sure. Outside of Cruz (PED taint) there really isn't much. Beast might be the third best guy out there...it's tragically thin. Might not be anybody to get.
3) Agreed again, but if they are going to keep Romo, Tron and Panda, it's going to cost. In a year we do have a bunch of money coming off (and yes, I'm looking at YOU Timmah).

 

[tzill]

Also, if Posey is to transition away from catcher, then we will likely need another catcher, Susac's status with you notwithstanding.

I just don't see that happening for couple of years...he's too valuable calling the game and working with the staff. He does need to drop down to no more than 120 games behind the dish, though.

 

[tzill]

So it looks like BBRef has the CBT numbers, as you say. I agree with you here that what I would like to do is look more at the FO's cash flow numbers - "Decreases to Cash" for salaries in that sense. That would be more precise in determining where the FO may want to be in terms of predicting their cash outlays for salary in a given year.

But the main point to me is not the absolute level of salaries in 2014-2015, but the relative amount of increase from year to year, which addresses the core issue as a fan of: How much more can we afford to achieve the level of player quality we seek? At least the BBRef numbers give us a basis to determine that increase, thus driving the roster moves.

In the end, it's all a SWAG anyway for us the fans. What the FO bases their total player salary level on is anyone's guess, outside of the FO.

I don't disagree, but it is interesting that the luxury tax number is going to start to come into play for us -- if not in 2015 then in 2016. Which seems intuitively correct to me.

 

[tzill]

Is the coast clear enough for us to consider signing Melky Cabrera back as a FA OF?

PED's aside, he sure would look good for us in LF.

MLBTR thinks it would take 5/66 to do it. Yikes. I might consider 3/40.

Free Agent Profile: Melky Cabrera ? MLB Trade Rumors

I think I advocated for this earlier this year; I was immediately slapped down. And then again recently on Cruz.

 

[tzill]

I read somewhere a few weeks back (sorry, I have no idea where) that Romo was actively championing his return and that the animosity towards him from the clubhouse was not as bad as reported.

That said, I don't think the PsTB are ready to add "those" players via FA yet.

This almost certainly will NOT happen.....but:

Can you imagine the fervor the return of the Melkmen and the Melkmaids would engender?