2015 Rosterbation

[tzill]

A few posts up I offered that Duffy could be a platoon with McGehee at 3rd. But I think that Arias may be a better fit for that. Duffy only had .602 OPS in only 60 AB's. He's a ways yet from replacing anyone. But he has promise, and he will get his chances.

I agree. Duffy really is a guy who may be a starting 2b in the majors. Unfortunately, he's now blocked by Panik. He doesn't have the arm to play SS or 3b as a starter, and I don't know that he can play in the OF. Thus, he's a reserve MI for us (and should be a damn good one at that). He has an ability to come off the bench and PH well, which is probably the hardest thing to do in all of baseball.

Unless Panik gets hurt, I can't see Duffman carving out a starting position with the Giants.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Zobrist had a slash line of .272/.354/.395 with 10 HR, 10 SB last year. His power numbers have been in steady decline since 2009, his peak season. He generates some impressive, and more than a little controversial, fWAR's for reasons that nobody can quite figure out. It seems to mostly come from a high walk rate and some pretty crazy defensive UZR numbers. Maybe he really is that good of a defender. I haven't seen him play very much so I don't have an eyeball test to compare with his metrics. I would definitely interpret them with caution. Even Fangraphs, the inventors of fWAR, can't seem to figure out how Zobrist does it. They ran an article a couple of months ago hypothesizing that his main value is in playing multiple positions even though fWAR is supposed to correct for positional value and therefore should not measure versatility!

In addition to all that, the Giants would be getting just 1 year out of him before he hits free agency.

So yeah, I would not mind having Zobrist for 1 season, but I would not want to see the Giants give up a top prospect or multiple prospects for him.

Re his WAR, yeah, something is whack, but like you, I have never seen him play much. The WAR value doesn't fit the salary, so TB must have something figured out there. Or maybe Zobrist doesn't - LOL.

However, remember that if we do trade for him, at the end of 2015, we can make him a QO, and if he bolts, we get a pick. That's how we got Crick in the first place, per cal.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Zobrist had a slash line of .272/.354/.395 with 10 HR, 10 SB last year. His power numbers have been in steady decline since 2009, his peak season. He generates some impressive, and more than a little controversial, fWAR's for reasons that nobody can quite figure out. It seems to mostly come from a high walk rate and some pretty crazy defensive UZR numbers. Maybe he really is that good of a defender. I haven't seen him play very much so I don't have an eyeball test to compare with his metrics. I would definitely interpret them with caution. Even Fangraphs, the inventors of fWAR, can't seem to figure out how Zobrist does it. They ran an article a couple of months ago hypothesizing that his main value is in playing multiple positions even though fWAR is supposed to correct for positional value and therefore should not measure versatility!

In addition to all that, the Giants would be getting just 1 year out of him before he hits free agency.

So yeah, I would not mind having Zobrist for 1 season, but I would not want to see the Giants give up a top prospect or multiple prospects for him.

Also, isn't WAR position-relative? If there is a relative dearth of decent 2B's, wouldn't a good 2B have a higher WAR than if there were more good 2B's? Perhaps that is the case with BZ.

 

[tzill]

Re his WAR, yeah, something is whack, but like you, I have never seen him play much. The WAR value doesn't fit the salary, so TB must have something figured out there. Or maybe Zobrist doesn't - LOL.

However, remember that if we do trade for him, at the end of 2015, we can make him a QO, and if he bolts, we get a pick. That's how we got Crick in the first place, per cal.

The QO will be north of $16MM; I can't see that happening.

 

[MarcoPolo]

I don't think you understand what a 5th starter is...the average 5th starter doesn't get more than a dozen starts a season. You're thinking more of a #4 guy.

Unless you're talking about the Giants. In the last 10 years, the ONLY time a "#5 starter" has had 12 or fewer starts in a season is because there were SIX starting pitchers by the end of the year. On the Giants, they often have 19-20+ starts in a year (when there are only 5 SP that season).

 

[tzill]

Unless you're talking about the Giants. In the last 10 years, the ONLY time a "#5 starter" has had 12 or fewer starts in a season is because there were SIX starting pitchers by the end of the year. On the Giants, they often have 19-20+ starts in a year (when there are only 5 SP that season).

I'm not quite following you.

In 2014, the Giants had only four pitchers with >15 starts
In 2013, Vogey only got 19 starts
In 2012, the Giants hit the SP lottery with only one start not from the five SP.
In 2011, Sanchez 19 starts
In 2010, Bum 18
In 2009, RJ 17
In 2008, Correia 19
In 2007, Morris 21
In 2006, Wright 21
In 2005, Reuter 18

So, if your point was that I should have said "19 starts" instead of "12 starts" -- agreed and thanks for the correction.

However, my underlying point stands: Expecting a 5th starter to take the ball 30+ times and post a sub 4.00 ERA is unrealistic. I'd have to do the research to prove this, but my gut says that the average 5th starter in MLB gets less than 15 starts and has an ERA over 4.50.

But I admit that's conjecture without statistical research.

 

[Mays-Fan]

The QO will be north of $16MM; I can't see that happening.

You are probably right. But what I could see happening is if we traded for him that we would offer him 3/30 or even 3/36 before the end of the year. He is durable and in excellent shape. Probably worth at least 4 WAR in 2015, and at least 8-10 WAR cumulatively in 2016-2018.

 

[tzill]

You are probably right. But what I could see happening is if we traded for him that we would offer him 3/30 or even 3/36 before the end of the year. He is durable and in excellent shape. Probably worth at least 4 WAR in 2015, and at least 8-10 WAR cumulatively in 2016-2018.

Again, while I am a WAR believer, in this case it's a wonky stat. He's NOT a 4 WAR player. Those guys make All Star Teams and get paid $15MM+ a year. He's a very useful swiss army guy who can start at multiple positions but I can't believe he's elite defensively at all of them.

Anyway, I was thinking about this: Hacktor and Blackburn for BZ. Or Duffy and Stratton.

That's what I'd pay.

 

[calsnowskier]

Again, while I am a WAR believer, in this case it's a wonky stat. He's NOT a 4 WAR player. Those guys make All Star Teams and get paid $15MM+ a year. He's a very useful swiss army guy who can start at multiple positions but I can't believe he's elite defensively at all of them.

Anyway, I was thinking about this: Hacktor and Blackburn for BZ. Or Duffy and Stratton.

That's what I'd pay.

My "signing off" on the Crick or Sussac + deals are based on the assumption that we either resign him or get a QO comp pick for him as he leaves (since he clearly doesn't want to play for us).

If the trade is made WITHOUT that assumption, than I think Crick or Sussac would be too much to pay for him.

If we make the Crick or Sussac + trade for him, and he has some major, career-ending injury, than obviously that is outside the expected realm, so I would be "OK" with them not QO'ing him.

 

[MarcoPolo]

I'm not quite following you.

In 2014, the Giants had only four pitchers with >15 starts
In 2013, Vogey only got 19 starts
In 2012, the Giants hit the SP lottery with only one start not from the five SP.
In 2011, Sanchez 19 starts
In 2010, Bum 18
In 2009, RJ 17
In 2008, Correia 19
In 2007, Morris 21
In 2006, Wright 21
In 2005, Reuter 18

So, if your point was that I should have said "19 starts" instead of "12 starts" -- agreed and thanks for the correction.

However, my underlying point stands: Expecting a 5th starter to take the ball 30+ times and post a sub 4.00 ERA is unrealistic. I'd have to do the research to prove this, but my gut says that the average 5th starter in MLB gets less than 15 starts and has an ERA over 4.50.

But I admit that's conjecture without statistical research.

In 2014, the Giants had only four pitchers with >15 starts

- exactly my point. The Giants effectively had TWO starting pitchers taking one slot (Cain + Peavy) and their #5 starter (Timmy) had 26 starts.

In 2013, Vogey only got 19 starts

- well, yeah. He was SO bad in '13 (ERA > 5.5) that they basically replaced him (and Zito at times) with Gaudin, who had 12 starts.

... if your point was that I should have said "19 starts" instead of "12 starts" ...

- Yes, ON THE GIANTS, the number has generally been a minimum of 19-20 starts for a 5th starter in recent years (when there aren't injuries and we end the season with 6 SPs).

Expecting a 5th starter to take the ball 30+ times and post a sub 4.00 ERA is unrealistic.

- Yes, it is (IMHO). A 5th starter ON THE GIANTS who posts an ERA of 4.5 (or lower) will probably get close to 30 starts. An ERA close to (or over) 5 will get you replaced around mid-season, so you probably won't get more than 16-18 starts before getting replaced by Petit or one of the young arms from AAA. Another point is that (because this is the Giants, who have beaucoup arms in the minors) if a kid is dazzling in AAA (or maybe even AA) he could get called up in Aug and replace a crappy #5. Said crappy #5 might not get but one start in Sep if "the kid" is doing well.

 

[msgkings322]

In 2014, the Giants had only four pitchers with >15 starts

- exactly my point. The Giants effectively had TWO starting pitchers taking one slot (Cain + Peavy) and their #5 starter (Timmy) had 26 starts.

In 2013, Vogey only got 19 starts

- well, yeah. He was SO bad in '13 (ERA > 5.5) that they basically replaced him (and Zito at times) with Gaudin, who had 12 starts.

... if your point was that I should have said "19 starts" instead of "12 starts" ...

- Yes, ON THE GIANTS, the number has generally been a minimum of 19-20 starts for a 5th starter in recent years (when there aren't injuries and we end the season with 6 SPs).

Expecting a 5th starter to take the ball 30+ times and post a sub 4.00 ERA is unrealistic.

- Yes, it is (IMHO). A 5th starter ON THE GIANTS who posts an ERA of 4.5 (or lower) will probably get close to 30 starts. An ERA close to (or over) 5 will get you replaced around mid-season, so you probably won't get more than 16-18 starts before getting replaced by Petit or one of the young arms from AAA. Another point is that (because this is the Giants, who have beaucoup arms in the minors) if a kid is dazzling in AAA (or maybe even AA) he could get called up in Aug and replace a crappy #5. Said crappy #5 might not get but one start in Sep if "the kid" is doing well.

This is exactly what I'm talking about...Timmy gets one more chance, about half a season, to see if he can at least hold down the 5th slot. This is his last year here, he knows it, the fans know it, there won't be any hard feelings when they don't offer him another contract. If he's doing ok, he stays, if not, he gets replaced by Petit or Crick or whomever. No hard feelings.

No matter how he does in 2015, he will leave a legacy as one of the great all time Giants.

 

[Mays-Fan]

This is exactly what I'm talking about...Timmy gets one more chance, about half a season, to see if he can at least hold down the 5th slot. This is his last year here, he knows it, the fans know it, there won't be any hard feelings when they don't offer him another contract. If he's doing ok, he stays, if not, he gets replaced by Petit or Crick or whomever. No hard feelings.

No matter how he does in 2015, he will leave a legacy as one of the great all time Giants.

And if, by chance, he regains his form, say 13-11, with a sub-4.00 ERA, what then? 2/38?

 

[Stokes1931]

This is exactly what I'm talking about...Timmy gets one more chance, about half a season, to see if he can at least hold down the 5th slot. This is his last year here, he knows it, the fans know it, there won't be any hard feelings when they don't offer him another contract. If he's doing ok, he stays, if not, he gets replaced by Petit or Crick or whomever. No hard feelings.

No matter how he does in 2015, he will leave a legacy as one of the great all time Giants.

Two Cy Youngs

Two no hitters

Strikeout leader several seasons

Three WS rings

His legacy is secured.

But dayum, for such a great start to a career, it sure is unraveling. Would love to see him recapture some of the former glory, or at least learn to pitch without embarrassing himself, and frustrating us.

 

[tzill]

In 2014, the Giants had only four pitchers with >15 starts

- exactly my point. The Giants effectively had TWO starting pitchers taking one slot (Cain + Peavy) and their #5 starter (Timmy) had 26 starts.

In 2013, Vogey only got 19 starts

- well, yeah. He was SO bad in '13 (ERA > 5.5) that they basically replaced him (and Zito at times) with Gaudin, who had 12 starts.

... if your point was that I should have said "19 starts" instead of "12 starts" ...

- Yes, ON THE GIANTS, the number has generally been a minimum of 19-20 starts for a 5th starter in recent years (when there aren't injuries and we end the season with 6 SPs).

Expecting a 5th starter to take the ball 30+ times and post a sub 4.00 ERA is unrealistic.

- Yes, it is (IMHO). A 5th starter ON THE GIANTS who posts an ERA of 4.5 (or lower) will probably get close to 30 starts. An ERA close to (or over) 5 will get you replaced around mid-season, so you probably won't get more than 16-18 starts before getting replaced by Petit or one of the young arms from AAA. Another point is that (because this is the Giants, who have beaucoup arms in the minors) if a kid is dazzling in AAA (or maybe even AA) he could get called up in Aug and replace a crappy #5. Said crappy #5 might not get but one start in Sep if "the kid" is doing well.

I agree with all of the above. I guess we're in agreement?

 

[msgkings322]

Two Cy Youngs

Two no hitters

Strikeout leader several seasons

Three WS rings

His legacy is secured.

But dayum, for such a great start to a career, it sure is unraveling. Would love to see him recapture some of the former glory, or at least learn to pitch without embarrassing himself, and frustrating us.

You forgot, just filthy in the postseason 2 of the 3 years...1 year as a starter, 1 year as some weird Eck-like long relief weapon

 

[Band of Brothers]

Hudson had surgery to remove bone spurs from his ankle. Expected to recover in about 8 weeks and be ready for Spring Training. Good to see him get that cleaned up and ready to take another run down the river of dreams.

 

[calsnowskier]

Hudson had surgery to remove bone spurs from his ankle. Expected to recover in about 8 weeks and be ready for Spring Training. Good to see him get that cleaned up and ready to take another run down the river of dreams.

I am OK if he does not show up until the ASB. This will allow Petit to have a full 1/2 season of starts to determine what he is, and then when Huddy gets back, he can replace either Petit or Timmeh. This also allows him to be in mid-season form by the time the stretch comes along.

 

[calsnowskier]

How sick are we?

This is, at this moment, the 2nd biggest thread in the history of this board, and will probably become #1 in less than a week. And it is an entirely off-season thread.

 

[Band of Brothers]

How sick are we?

This is, at this moment, the 2nd biggest thread in the history of this board, and will probably become #1 in less than a week. And it is an entirely off-season thread.

I feel pretty good Cal. Our board is one of the strongest along side of the 49ers boards on SportsHoopla. We Rock pretty good. We care and that's a good thing.

 

[Band of Brothers]

Oh yeah let's not forget 3 out of that last 5 Championships help too. It's good to be the king ! Giants on a roll so let's keep it Rock N'. Dynasty ! I love it !