2015 Rosterbation

[Mays-Fan]

I know the fans here are aware, but re 2015, there is an upside vis-a-vis 2014 that is worth re-emphasizing. I'm talking about Brandon Belt. He was our number 3 starter in terms of OPS in the playoffs, after Panda and Pence. When pitching dominates as it usually does in the playoffs, he hit a solid .758 OPS, with 11 BB's vs 17 K's. He came through in the primest of times. Not to mention his EPIC 18th inning HR to win the playoff game vs the Washington Generals.

[youtube]KTOFbJg4-k0[/youtube]

The upside I refer to is that because of his freak injuries, which should not affect him going forward, he only had 214 at bats in 2014. That's only like a third of a year - and he still had 12 dingers. It's not news, but if he finally has a full year that he is capable of, he could easily hit 25 HR's with 90+ RBI's. He will arguably be one of our best 3 hitters overall, along with Posey and Pence. And since Belt is a LHH, and Posey and Pence are RHH's, it could well be that Belt hits cleanup, to get that R-L-R trio together. We could see:

Pagan
Panik
Posey
Belt
Pence
McGehee
Crawford
Blanco
pitcher

And let's not forget that in 2013, he had an .841 OPS for the year, and .915 OPS after the ASB.

So we could see some dramatically improved stats from Belt if he plays a full year - a huge potential improvement for us in 2015 that not many people are really talking about right now.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Another stat of note which may lead to some hidden upside:

In 2014, McGehee had a .739 OPS against RHP, even though he is a RHH. He had only a .597 OPS against LHP.

In 2014, Matt Duffy had an .888 OPS against LHP, albeit in only 30 ABs.

Still, some platoon opportunities exist, even if we aren't talking about Duffy. Finding a part-time 3B to play against LHP (presumably a RHH) is very doable. Even Arias has a .708 OPS against LHP over the last 3 years.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Latest on Zobrist:

Cafardo On Shields, Zobrist, Uggla, Papelbon, Aoki ? MLB Trade Rumors

"The Giants, Nationals, Angels, and Cubs are seriously pursuing Ben Zobrist with the Rays‘ asking price being at least one top prospect and a mid-level one."

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

If our prospects are good enough, that's a price I could live with. Not Susac. So, Crick and anyone not named Beede. Or Beede and anyone not named Crick.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

I know the fans here are aware, but re 2015, there is an upside vis-a-vis 2014 that is worth re-emphasizing. I'm talking about Brandon Belt. He was our number 3 starter in terms of OPS in the playoffs, after Panda and Pence. When pitching dominates as it usually does in the playoffs, he hit a solid .758 OPS, with 11 BB's vs 17 K's. He came through in the primest of times. Not to mention his EPIC 18th inning HR to win the playoff game vs the Washington Generals.

[youtube]KTOFbJg4-k0[/youtube]

The upside I refer to is that because of his freak injuries, which should not affect him going forward, he only had 214 at bats in 2014. That's only like a third of a year - and he still had 12 dingers. It's not news, but if he finally has a full year that he is capable of, he could easily hit 25 HR's with 90+ RBI's. He will arguably be one of our best 3 hitters overall, along with Posey and Pence. And since Belt is a LHH, and Posey and Pence are RHH's, it could well be that Belt hits cleanup, to get that R-L-R trio together. We could see:

Pagan
Panik
Posey
Belt
Pence
McGehee
Crawford
Blanco
pitcher

And let's not forget that in 2013, he had an .841 OPS for the year, and .915 OPS after the ASB.

So we could see some dramatically improved stats from Belt if he plays a full year - a huge potential improvement for us in 2015 that not many people are really talking about right now.

Belt can improve and play at the early-2013 level. But it's also possible our No.2 hitter (Panik) and McGehee regress, maybe even significantly for McGehee

 

[Mays-Fan]

Belt can improve and play at the early-2013 level. But it's also possible our No.2 hitter (Panik) and McGehee regress, maybe even significantly for McGehee

 

[tzill]

Latest on Zobrist:

Cafardo On Shields, Zobrist, Uggla, Papelbon, Aoki ? MLB Trade Rumors

"The Giants, Nationals, Angels, and Cubs are seriously pursuing Ben Zobrist with the Rays‘ asking price being at least one top prospect and a mid-level one."

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

If our prospects are good enough, that's a price I could live with. Not Susac. So, Crick and anyone not named Beede. Or Beede and anyone not named Crick.

Crick, IMO, is too much to give up for one year of Zobrist. Blackburn or Blach I'd do.

 

[Sandisfan]

In evaluating Mcgehee take into account that when "not especially Entertaining and sometimes SPorts Network" ran some statistics, out made on the bases, extra bases not taken and other assorted stats. he was statistically the worst base runner in the league.

 

[Mays-Fan]

In evaluating Mcgehee take into account that when "not especially Entertaining and sometimes SPorts Network" ran some statistics, out made on the bases, extra bases not taken and other assorted stats. he was statistically the worst base runner in the league.

Great! Then he'll fit right in. /sarc

 

[Mays-Fan]

Crick, IMO, is too much to give up for one year of Zobrist. Blackburn or Blach I'd do.

I see where you are coming from. But when it comes down to it, Crick is not a can't-miss prospect at the MLB level. Plus, he may be more than a year away from The Show, and further still from truly contributing to a future WSC. If getting Zobrist now moves us into the top tier in 2015 (it would certainly be our biggest off-season step towards that), then IMHO, it's worth losing Crick and a throw-in.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Crick, IMO, is too much to give up for one year of Zobrist. Blackburn or Blach I'd do.

Just curious, why do you say one year? True, he has one year left on his contract at $7.5 mill.

But, in 2015, he will likely be a 4 WAR player minimum, making him theoretically worth $24 mill or more for 2015. He has been durable, so even though he starts 2015 at age 33, I see him worth at least 7 WAR cumulatively in 2016-2018 (probably more like 10), so in today's dollars, that's worth another $42 mill. If he comes through with a 4+ WAR year in 2015 and he fits in, he would be worth a 3/30 easy, something we could do late in 2015 before he becomes a FA.

Admittedly, I'm getting a little biased. The more I find out about Zobrist, and the more I think about him in a Giants uniform, the more I like him.

 

[Band of Brothers]

I like Zobrist. He plays hard,has heart, and can play multiple positions. Bring him in Sabes ! Here we go...

 

[Mays-Fan]

I like Zobrist. He plays hard,has heart, and can play multiple positions. Bring him in Sabes ! Here we go...

Pagan
Panik
Posey
Belt
Pence
Zobrist
McGehee/Arias
Crawford
pitcher

 

[Band of Brothers]

Pagan
Panik
Posey
Belt
Pence
Zobrist
McGehee/Arias
Crawford
pitcher

You can also add Duffy in the mix. The kid has inner strength . He needs a few cheeseburgers and shakes but he can hit and get on base. He wants to play bad and I will never forget his mad dash from second base to score on that wild pitch to tie that game up. A Bill Mueller type and Mueller was a ballplayer.

 

[Mays-Fan]

You can also add Duffy in the mix. The kid has inner strength . He needs a few cheeseburgers and shakes but he can hit and get on base. He wants to play bad and I will never forget his mad dash from second base to score on that wild pitch to tie that game up. A Bill Mueller type and Mueller was a ballplayer.

A few posts up I offered that Duffy could be a platoon with McGehee at 3rd. But I think that Arias may be a better fit for that. Duffy only had .602 OPS in only 60 AB's. He's a ways yet from replacing anyone. But he has promise, and he will get his chances.

 

[Band of Brothers]

A few posts up I offered that Duffy could be a platoon with McGehee at 3rd. But I think that Arias may be a better fit for that. Duffy only had .602 OPS in only 60 AB's. He's a ways yet from replacing anyone. But he has promise, and he will get his chances.

Duffy really gained a ton of confidence in 2014 and also now has a ring. He is going to loosen up more next year and I would love to see him work with the trainers and nutritionist to put on a few pounds. The kid has guts and I love players with guts. He will hit...bank it!

 

[Mays-Fan]

Crick, IMO, is too much to give up for one year of Zobrist. Blackburn or Blach I'd do.

Ken Rosenthal makes a good point about that:

Rosenthal On Braves, Phillies, Zobrist, Rosario ? MLB Trade Rumors

"Ben Zobrist is likely to receive a qualifying offer next winter if the Rays deal him this offseason, and the possibility of getting a draft pick would likely make him even more valuable to some interested teams."​

So at the end of 2015, if we don't want to sign him, we make him a QO, and we get a draft pick.

So we trade Crick plus a mid-level prospect for a year of Zobrist plus a 2016 draft pick. Worst case.

 

[calsnowskier]

Ken Rosenthal makes a good point about that:

Rosenthal On Braves, Phillies, Zobrist, Rosario ? MLB Trade Rumors

"Ben Zobrist is likely to receive a qualifying offer next winter if the Rays deal him this offseason, and the possibility of getting a draft pick would likely make him even more valuable to some interested teams."​

So at the end of 2015, if we don't want to sign him, we make him a QO, and we get a draft pick.

So we trade Crick plus a mid-level prospect for a year of Zobrist plus a 2016 draft pick. Worst case.

Now THIS is a great post that makes me rethink the value of trading for Z. Crick, after all, was a sandwich pick himself.

I still would not want to deal BOTH Crick and Susac, but I am more open to dealing either along with another semi-legit prospect to bring him in now.

 

[tzill]

I see where you are coming from. But when it comes down to it, Crick is not a can't-miss prospect at the MLB level. Plus, he may be more than a year away from The Show, and further still from truly contributing to a future WSC. If getting Zobrist now moves us into the top tier in 2015 (it would certainly be our biggest off-season step towards that), then IMHO, it's worth losing Crick and a throw-in.

Dr. B (who I respect a lot) has him right there with Beede for stuff in the system. He projects as at least a middle of the rotation starter. I agree that all prospects are dicey, but Beede and Crick are pretty likely to make the show, IMO. Zobrist has wonky WAR numbers that nobody can really explain (and which his salary doesn't reflect). Maybe he's just a superlative defender at multiple positions, but I'm leery.

That all said, as long as we are not giving up Panik, Susser, Beede, Crick or Mella I'm ok with two prospects for Zobrist. That might not be enough to get it done, which may be why it hasn't happened.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Now THIS is a great post that makes me rethink the value of trading for Z. Crick, after all, was a sandwich pick himself.

I still would not want to deal BOTH Crick and Susac, but I am more open to dealing either along with another semi-legit prospect to bring him in now.

"Thankyouverymuch!"


(But I would still consider Susac off-limits.)

 

[tzill]

Just curious, why do you say one year? True, he has one year left on his contract at $7.5 mill.

But, in 2015, he will likely be a 4 WAR player minimum, making him theoretically worth $24 mill or more for 2015. He has been durable, so even though he starts 2015 at age 33, I see him worth at least 7 WAR cumulatively in 2016-2018 (probably more like 10), so in today's dollars, that's worth another $42 mill. If he comes through with a 4+ WAR year in 2015 and he fits in, he would be worth a 3/30 easy, something we could do late in 2015 before he becomes a FA.

Admittedly, I'm getting a little biased. The more I find out about Zobrist, and the more I think about him in a Giants uniform, the more I like him.

Zobrist had a slash line of .272/.354/.395 with 10 HR, 10 SB last year. His power numbers have been in steady decline since 2009, his peak season. He generates some impressive, and more than a little controversial, fWAR's for reasons that nobody can quite figure out. It seems to mostly come from a high walk rate and some pretty crazy defensive UZR numbers. Maybe he really is that good of a defender. I haven't seen him play very much so I don't have an eyeball test to compare with his metrics. I would definitely interpret them with caution. Even Fangraphs, the inventors of fWAR, can't seem to figure out how Zobrist does it. They ran an article a couple of months ago hypothesizing that his main value is in playing multiple positions even though fWAR is supposed to correct for positional value and therefore should not measure versatility!

In addition to all that, the Giants would be getting just 1 year out of him before he hits free agency.

So yeah, I would not mind having Zobrist for 1 season, but I would not want to see the Giants give up a top prospect or multiple prospects for him.