2015 Rosterbation

[calsnowskier]

It's official...



Panda did NOT win the Gold Glove. Not a huge deal, but it keeps a few hundred thousand off his contract...

 

[tzill]

Don't worry, somebody will.

I don't think you guys understand what "contending" means...

 

[msgkings322]

I don't think you guys understand what "contending" means...

 

[Mays-Fan]

A very interesting wrinkle on Yasmany Tomas:

NL Notes: Morales, Cuddyer, Morse, Romo, Tomas ? MLB Trade Rumors

"Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas worked out at third base in a tryout yesterday with the Diamondbacks, according to a tweet from his agent Jay Alou Jr. The 24-year-old had been talked about primarily as a corner outfielder. Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com first tweeted that Tomas had spent time with the D’backs."

 

[calsnowskier]

OFFSEASON NOTES: The focus right now is Pablo, Pablo, Pablo ... Lincecum to go back into rotation ... Susac takes over backup job - Giants Extra

Panda is the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th priorities for the Giants this off-season. That kinda scares me.

Susac IS the back-up. If Hacktor wants it back, he has to take it from the Susser.

Timmeh is in the rotation. End of story.

Giants don't expect anything from Scoots. My sense (reading between the lines) is that he is done. I personally found it interesting that he was not in the dugout for any of the playoffs (at least that I saw).

Giants expect a LOT from Pagan. He was raving about the success of the surgery. He WAS in the dugout for the World Series, but did not make the parade (that was weird). Regardless what he or the Giants say, though, back surgeries are not minor. VERY rarely do they "work".

The payroll is expected to remain relatively the same (4th-5th-6th in the majors). It WILL go up this year.

Wotus is a finalist for the Rays job. You HAVE to imagine he will get the call one of these years. But does he want the Rays job? That just stinks of a loser job if I ever saw one. A team that is going nowhere and has no front office to right the ship.

 

[calsnowskier]

YIKES!!!




Panda is looking for AT LEAST 6 years.

Next...

 

[calsnowskier]

Assuming (big assumption) that Panda is gone, do the Giants focus on Markakis? Would he be interested in coming to a team where he would need to play left? Would the Giants consider moving Pence to left, given how he has mastered the RF wall at AT&T?

What would it cost to get Markakis on board? He is a durable player, having only 1 season where he played less than 147 games (and that was 104 games). His numbers over the last two years have been below his average, though. It looks like his power has dropped. I am not sure why.

Markakis did not receive a QO, so he would not cost our pick, but it also would not cost anyone else their pick, so his price tag might get higher than expected.

 

[Stokes1931]

YIKES!!!




Panda is looking for AT LEAST 6 years.

Next...

I like Panda, but not that much.

Longer years, smaller per year pay?

The fact is his average has been mediocre the past few years, his power numbers have fallen off, and his RBI's have decreased. He only had a couple more RBI's than Stamos this season, and Stamos batted 8th and had little opportunity to drive in runs.

2009 (153 games) .330/.387/.556 (25 homers, 90 RBI)

2010 (152 games) .268/.323/.409 (13 homers, 63 RBI)

2011 (117 games) .315/.357/.552 (23 homers, 70 RBI)

2012 (108 games) .283/.342/.447 (12 homers, 63 RBI)

2013 (141 games) .278/.341/.417 (14 homers, 79 RBI)

2014 (157 games) .279/.324/.415 (16 homers, 73 RBI)

Everything has gone south since 2011, except games played. The homers/game are down, the average is down, the OBP is down (Panda MORE impatient at the plate?!?!), RBI's per game are down.

I am not sure this trend justifies anything over 3-4 years, or anything over about $12 million/year, but the market sets the prices. If Panda becomes another $100 million man, it is not because he is a stud hitter, neither for average, power, nor RBI's, which are all rather pedestrian.

On the plus side, Panda seems like he has become an excellent defender, and he has been reasonable healthy this past two years. His lifetime FA at 3rd is .960, and was .971 in 2014.

 

[Montalban]

YIKES!!!




Panda is looking for AT LEAST 6 years.

Next...

If true, color him gone. The Giants would be crazy to give him 6 years.

 

[tzill]

Assuming (big assumption) that Panda is gone, do the Giants focus on Markakis? Would he be interested in coming to a team where he would need to play left? Would the Giants consider moving Pence to left, given how he has mastered the RF wall at AT&T?

What would it cost to get Markakis on board? He is a durable player, having only 1 season where he played less than 147 games (and that was 104 games). His numbers over the last two years have been below his average, though. It looks like his power has dropped. I am not sure why.

Markakis did not receive a QO, so he would not cost our pick, but it also would not cost anyone else their pick, so his price tag might get higher than expected.

Markakis an average to below average defender, so I can't see them moving Pence out of RF for him. He's a solid starter, not an all-star, so I could get behind something like 3/36 or 2/25. Don't know if he'd take the pay cut though.

 

[tzill]

I like Panda, but not that much.

Longer years, smaller per year pay?

The fact is his average has been mediocre the past few years, his power numbers have fallen off, and his RBI's have decreased. He only had a couple more RBI's than Stamos this season, and Stamos batted 8th and had little opportunity to drive in runs.

2009 (153 games) .330/.387/.556 (25 homers, 90 RBI)

2010 (152 games) .268/.323/.409 (13 homers, 63 RBI)

2011 (117 games) .315/.357/.552 (23 homers, 70 RBI)

2012 (108 games) .283/.342/.447 (12 homers, 63 RBI)

2013 (141 games) .278/.341/.417 (14 homers, 79 RBI)

2014 (157 games) .279/.324/.415 (16 homers, 73 RBI)

Everything has gone south since 2011, except games played. The homers/game are down, the average is down, the OBP is down (Panda MORE impatient at the plate?!?!), RBI's per game are down.

I am not sure this trend justifies anything over 3-4 years, or anything over about $12 million/year, but the market sets the prices. If Panda becomes another $100 million man, it is not because he is a stud hitter, neither for average, power, nor RBI's, which are all rather pedestrian.

On the plus side, Panda seems like he has become an excellent defender, and he has been reasonable healthy this past two years. His lifetime FA at 3rd is .960, and was .971 in 2014.

He's 27, he's a plus defender, and a plus hitter.

[/IMG]

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Goodness. Six years for Sandoval? If we are talking over 18M per season, let him walk.

 

[calsnowskier]

He's 27, he's a plus defender, and a plus hitter.

[/IMG]

You are OK with 6 years for the Panda?

With his track record?

 

[Mays-Fan]

Markakis an average to below average defender, so I can't see them moving Pence out of RF for him. He's a solid starter, not an all-star, so I could get behind something like 3/36 or 2/25. Don't know if he'd take the pay cut though.

I understand the FO's stance on this, but I would SOOOOOOO much rather have Melky then Markakis.

I think Markakis just continues to decline, esp in our stadium, esp since he's a lefty. Pass. I'd rather put the money into another player, or roll the dice on Tomas.

 

[tzill]

You are OK with 6 years for the Panda?

With his track record?

From what I've been reading, he's more concerned with length of contract than with AAV. So, would I go 6/100? Yes, yes I would. As I've said before, he's 27. If he fats out at 32, we can trade the last two years of his contract to the AL.

The more I read, the more I'm thinking he's going to re-sign here pretty quickly. Sabean won't wait around for him to run up the price with counter offers. He's going to give a good, final offer and if Panda declines, he'll start talking to HanRam (but we already have Arias!!) and Headley. He won't wait around. Also, Panda's agent has said THEY don't want to wait around and will sign quickly if there is a good offer.

I'm thinking 6/100 gets it done. Panda gets his six years, his agent gets the 9 figure contract, and we keep the AAV down below Pence. Win/win.

 

[tzill]

I understand the FO's stance on this, but I would SOOOOOOO much rather have Melky then Markakis.

I think Markakis just continues to decline, esp in our stadium, esp since he's a lefty. Pass. I'd rather put the money into another player, or roll the dice on Tomas.

Agreed, but Melky is going to be much more expensive. I don't think they've got the budget for Panda AND Melky (though I'd love to see it). And see these too:

 

[calsnowskier]

From what I've been reading, he's more concerned with length of contract than with AAV. So, would I go 6/100? Yes, yes I would. As I've said before, he's 27. If he fats out at 32, we can trade the last two years of his contract to the AL.

The more I read, the more I'm thinking he's going to re-sign here pretty quickly. Sabean won't wait around for him to run up the price with counter offers. He's going to give a good, final offer and if Panda declines, he'll start talking to HanRam (but we already have Arias!!) and Headley. He won't wait around. Also, Panda's agent has said THEY don't want to wait around and will sign quickly if there is a good offer.

I'm thinking 6/100 gets it done. Panda gets his six years, his agent gets the 9 figure contract, and we keep the AAV down below Pence. Win/win.

You are assuming he will have a "normal" performance arc assuming his gets the long contract. I see ZERO evidence that that will occur.

He stated a couple years ago that he would get fit "later". That he didn't need to at that time. Then he comes to a contract year and, surprise surprise, he is in shape.

Being in shape is just not the norm for him. He does not have the interest in it to keep it up when his nuts are not in the fire. A 6-year contract officially removes his nuts from the fire.

"So he will relax the first couple of years and pick it up in the 3rd or 4th year". But he will be older by that time and likely not able to turn it back on. I stated earlier that I would prefer a 4/80 to a 5/80 just because of this issue.

 

[Mays-Fan]

SF Giants Payroll 2015 - includes Panda and Cabrera

I shaved a little off Panda and Cabrera's 2015 salary because we have so much rolling off in 2016 - we can structure the contracts to fit that (I hope).

Budget assumptions: For 2015 payroll, in rough terms, start with 2014. BBRef has us at $166.6mm, which needs to be adjusted for Peavy. BBRef has us at $14.5 - $3.0 or $11.5 net. We only net paid Peavy $2mm, per MLBTR. So subtract $11.5 - 2.0 = 9.5 from $166.6, and we are at an adjusted $157mm for 2014. Add 7% for FO payroll expansion, about $11mm, and we are at $168mm for 2015. Nothing new here, just reasonable estimation on my part, IMO. We may go a few million higher because of WSC III.

Starting Pitchers (5)
Timmy $18.0 fixed
Cain $20.0 fixed
Hudson $12.0 fixed
Vogey $6.0 fixed FA
Bum $6.75 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $62.75

Bullpen (7)
Lopez $4.0 fixed
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Casilla $5.0 fixed
Machi $0.5 Pre-Arb-2
Strickland $0.5
Petit $3.0 Arb-2
1 other $0.5

# Bullpen Subtotal $19.5

C/IF (8)
Buster $16.5 fixed
HSan $1.0 Arb-1
Susac $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $4.5 Arb-2
Panik $0.5 Pre-Arb
Craw $3.0 Arb-1
Arias $1.45 fixed
Panda $16.0 FA

# C/IF Subtotal $43.45

OF (5)
Pagan $10.25 fixed
Pence $18.5 fixed
Blanco $3.5 Arb-2
Melky Cabrera $12.0 FA
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Williamson/Perez/Brown/Carbonell)

# OF Subtotal $44.75

Off roster: Scutaro $6.7 fixed

Prelim Total $177.15 (25 players + Scoots)

Agreed, but Melky is going to be much more expensive. I don't think they've got the budget for Panda AND Melky (though I'd love to see it).

You even +1'd it. It may be a stretch, but IMHO, it's doable.

 

[msgkings322]

Agreed, but Melky is going to be much more expensive. I don't think they've got the budget for Panda AND Melky (though I'd love to see it). And see these too:

Sorry, these two look like dudes in drag, especially the one on the right

 

[msgkings322]

You even +1'd it. It may be a stretch, but IMHO, it's doable.

Melky: NOT HAPPENING