2015 Draft

[awaz]

Would You Trade #7 Overall for Jonathan Drouin? - Broad Street Hockey

Interesting to say the least

I think this could be a very good deal for the Flyers but at the same time, this draft is really, really good

It could be like the Seguin deal where he was underused in Boston and went to Dallas and lit it up with Jamie Benn - Jonathan Drouin could have the same affect with Claude Giroux

I would definitely consider the #7 for Drouin. I don't think I'd do #7 and #29/30 though. I like Drouin, but I think on the Flyers he drives the second line, rather than riding shotgun with Giroux and Voracek. He's more of a playmaker than a goal scorer, which is actually more of what the Flyers need IMO. They don't need someone scoring on the 1st line, they need someone to create offense on the 2nd line. Which is why I like Barzal so much in the draft. If you move #7 for Drouin though, you get that catalyst from the wing instead of in the middle, which might fit better with what the Flyers have anyway. A Drouin/Coots pair for your 2nd line, Giroux/Voracek for your 1st line, would be two pretty high functioning pairs. Then you have Schenn, Raffl, Read, and Simmonds to plug in and rotate in those 2 extra spots.

 

[awaz]

I'd definitely consider it, but a line of Drouin-Giroux-Voracek would be 3 pass-first players with questionable finishing ability. He could be a great fit with Simmonds on the 2nd line, though. They still desperately need a sniper, was Vinny was supposed to be when they signed him.

Ha, beat me to it!

 

[awaz]

2015 NHL Entry Draft: Which lottery pick could fall to the Dallas Stars? - Defending Big D

ha, only through the Devils part, but when I was reading about Rantanen yesterday I was thinking 'so if he pans out he's a marian hossa type.'

(I'm trying to get comfortable with taking Rantanen)

edit: oh good, he thinks there's a good chance the Flyers take Barzal

 

[JBM73]

Ha, beat me to it!

My ex-wife always said I was fast!

 

[Cobiemonster]

Ha, beat me to it!

Something like this:

12-28-93
27-14-17

That could be a very formidable top six

But it's so tempting to keep the pick too because I really think in all honesty, the Flyers need to get a d-man if he's still there at 7 because there's no guarantee that the d-men they have waiting in the wings will be great - one or two could be considered failures when it's all set and done - having plenty of young d-men will give them a better chance at landing someone who's really good

Although, I'm not sure if Tampa would do it or not - if Flyers fans want to do it then I get the sense that Tampa wouldn't do it

 

[flyersfan4706]

Yeah, I'd do #7 for Drouin pretty easily. He is a victim of of playing on a stacked team with plenty of good wingers. As much as I want to draft Provorov, you can't pass up value as good as Drouin for #7

 

[wbon22]

Not sure that I would trade the #7 for Drouin, but I would discuss the TB 1st plus.

I really really really don't want to trade picks if we can avoid it. I would rather make moves to bring in additional picks. This draft has so many options that allow for so many long term additions to the organization.

 

[JBM73]

Can teams identify 'clutch' when building a roster?
CHICAGO -- He showed up right on time, just when you’d expect Jonathan Toews to. After three Stanley Cup finals games without a goal and just a single assist, the Blackhawks' captain found his team backed into a corner. Lose Game 4 and they’re headed to Tampa Bay, where the home team could clinch a Stanley Cup before this series even got going.

Of course it was Toews who was the first to break through in this critical game. It’s what he does. Need a big goal? More often than not, he’s the one providing it.

“When it’s needed, he does what is needed. Scoring the big goals, winning the big faceoffs, making that defensive play. It really is phenomenal,” one Western Conference general manager said. “I think you would be really hard-pressed to look at anybody else in the league today, if you were starting a team -- who would you want more? I know there’s stars like Sidney Crosby but, man . . . "

Toews has earned a reputation around the league as one of the most clutch players in the game. Time and time again, he strengthens that belief. Colleague Scott Burnside made the case once again in his fine postgame story on Toews.

This all assumes you believe in the notion that clutch exists in hockey. It has been well-documented that the hockey analytics community is highly dubious of the idea.

Toews scoring a big goal in a big moment may be nothing more than a good player doing what good players do.

Posed with that question after the Blackhawks' Game 4 win -- if Toews was just good at hockey, or if he was clutch -- teammate Patrick Sharp hedged.

“Both,” he answered. “He scores goals and has those big moments in big games. That’s a product of being a good player. Nothing fazes him; he tries to win every battle out there and usually does. That’s why he’s the captain of this team.”

It’s not an argument that will be settled anytime soon, so perhaps the better question is this: Do teams actively try to identify clutch players in drafting and roster construction? If so, how?

Chicago general manager Stan Bowman believes that some players elevate their games in the biggest moments. The challenge for him and other general managers is figuring out exactly who those players are when assembling a team.

“It’s possibly the most elusive trait to pin down,” Bowman said. “I’m not sure how to explain it or describe it. They just have it. Fortunately, we’ve got a number of guys that can do that. They can raise their game in those critical moments.”

The Blackhawks’ success seems to back up Bowman’s claim. Patrick Kane also has scored big goal after big goal. Brandon Saad scored the winner in Game 4 and early indications in his young career suggest he fits the profile of a player who could be defined as clutch. He has eight goals during this postseason run, including two game winners. Of those eight goals, six gave the Blackhawks the lead, one tied the game and another extended a Chicago lead.

But again, these are all really good hockey players. Simply identifying skill and putting those players in position to succeed may be more important than trying to find clutch players.

Toronto Maple Leafs assistant general manager Kyle Dubas, an executive whose background mix of hockey scouting and analytics makes him a little more skeptical when it comes to labeling a player as clutch.

“It’s affected so much by who is on the ice in the last minute,” Dubas said. “If you’re a good player playing on a good team, you’re going to be on the ice late in the game. It’s proportionately weighted to players in that situation.”

Dubas was standing on the NHL draft combine floor in Buffalo when we chatted, with teenagers in front of him getting tested for endurance, agility, height, weight and every other physical measurement.

Nowhere on that floor is a test for clutch or performance under pressure. Chances are, there won’t ever be. So until then, executives and scouts try to look for clues.

Dubas mentioned the impressive performance turned in by Anthony Cirelli at the Memorial Cup, with his two goals -- including the overtime winner -- lifting the Oshawa Generals to a championship.

As impressive as it was to watch, Dubas wasn’t making any conclusions. For him to even consider the notion of clutch, it needs to happen again and again and again and again in a player.

“I’ve always been very careful about it. It has so much to do with the quality of team you’re on, the circumstances,” he said. “I do think it takes special characteristics and traits when under pressure to continue to play your same way. I don’t necessarily believe that players get any better and I haven’t been doing this long enough to say it with any authority, but I believe in pressure moments that there are some players by every measure that do get worse. I think it has to do with the quality of competition you’re playing against in those clutch moments.”

The problem with demanding a high sample-size before making a determination on a player’s ability to perform under pressure is that some players just don’t get that opportunity.

Instead, a general manager or scout has to look for signs that a player is different, that his will to win exceeds that of the opposition.

Dale Tallon, the former Blackhawks general manager now trying to build a similar team in Florida, saw it with Toews.

“You see it,” Tallon said. “You see it when he plays, how badly he wants it. I can still see his frustration in St. Louis in the [2007] Frozen Four, how [ticked] off he was when [North Dakota] lost. That’s what makes him so great. He has fire in his belly and will not be denied.”

An Eastern Conference amateur scout agreed that there were signs early with Toews.

“Remember the world junior where he had shootouts and kept scoring,” he said. “If you watched him in college, he seemed to get the bigger goals. Things get a little more intense as the level goes up a little bit. They’re smart, skilled players. I think they’re able to maintain where they’re at as opposed to other guys who fall off.”

And perhaps that’s the secret. Toews continues to be Toews regardless of the score or the situation, while other players tighten up or don’t quite perform to the same level.

It’s a fine line and it’s also one in which you don’t want to rush to judgment.

Dubas uses the example of the Tampa Bay Lightning general manager whose Stanley Cup hopes may depend on how well his team contains Toews the rest of the way.

Dubas grew up in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, and was a Red Wings fan mostly because that’s the team that was on television and radio in his hometown.

He was, and remains, a fan and admirer of Steve Yzerman.

“In the early '90s or even the mid '90s, before they won the first Stanley Cup, they would question whether or not he was clutch enough to win,” Dubas said. “They win three times and now he’s regarded as one of the greatest players and leaders ever -- which he always was. It’s just the way it works. It gets dangerous when you start to disproportionately attribute clutch to a player. In that case, if the Red Wings believed that he was not clutch and trade him, do they win?”

Probably not.

That’s the value in the stats and the analytics. We remember the big moments, but the stats don’t let narratives or memorable goals cloud the big picture.

Still, they also shouldn’t get in the way of enjoying a great player making great plays in critical moments like we saw in Game 4.

“[Toews] is one of the best players in hockey. He’s in big moments all the time. He’s a great player in those big moments all the time,” Dubas said. “In the end, we’re all just trying to figure out how it all works. I hope one day, you can define clutch. Right now, it’s a mystical, magical thing few players have. And it makes sports cool.”

 

[JBM73]

Sorry to post the whole article, but it was from ESPN Insider.

 

[awaz]

Sorry to post the whole article, but it was from ESPN Insider.

definitely an interesting article. probably the most interesting to me is Dubas' point that the best players are going to get more clutch opportunities so it makes sense that some of the best guys are considered 'clutch'.

still doesn't quite define Briere's transformation between the regular season and playoffs. to me, Briere is the most 'clutch' hockey player I can remember. in the regular season he was a pretty good 2C who could be pushed in to a 1C role if need be. in the playoffs he was among the hockey elite. just ridiculous.

 

[awaz]

continuing to get more comfortable with Zacha today.. reading about him kind of reminds me of Ovechkin. obviously a crazy high comparison, but his playing style seems to be similar.

I love how Ovechkin plays.

 

[lasgop8]

I'd definitely consider it, but a line of Drouin-Giroux-Voracek would be 3 pass-first players with questionable finishing ability. He could be a great fit with Simmonds on the 2nd line, though. They still desperately need a sniper, what Vinny was supposed to be when they signed him.

I was thinking the same thing good post.

 

[JBM73]

continuing to get more comfortable with Zacha today.. reading about him kind of reminds me of Ovechkin. obviously a crazy high comparison, but his playing style seems to be similar.

I love how Ovechkin plays.

I wouldn't be shocked at all if he was the guy. It sounds like he is the closest player in the #7 range who could develop into a true sniper (+size, +dirty) which they clearly need, or as you're suggesting a poor-man's Ovechkin.

 

[awaz]

I wouldn't be shocked at all if he was the guy. It sounds like he is the closest player in the #7 range who could develop into a true sniper (+size, +dirty) which they clearly need, or as you're suggesting a poor-man's Ovechkin.

a couple of player comparables that I have developed over reading about these guys

Barzal - Claude Giroux
Zacha - Alex Ovechkin
Rantanen - Marian Hossa
Provorov - John Carlson
Hanifin - Dan Girardi
Crouse - Brian Boyle
Meier - Bobby Ryan
Werenski - Alex Pietrangelo

At least that's how I see those guys. That's strictly playing style. Asking any of those guys to live up to any of those comparisons is just being mean haha

From what I can tell, one of those guys should be the Flyers pick. Connor can probably be included in that group too, but I don't have a good comparable for him.

 

[awaz]

I wouldn't be shocked at all if he was the guy. It sounds like he is the closest player in the #7 range who could develop into a true sniper (+size, +dirty) which they clearly need, or as you're suggesting a poor-man's Ovechkin.

I agree. I think they see this spot in the draft as having 7-10 guys around where they're going to pick, that are pretty even. It's just a matter of what you want. The biggest organizational need is probably a dynamic scorer, hence Zacha being the choice.

 

[JBM73]

Ranking the 2015 NHL draft class by top skills
While fans understandably get caught up in the rankings of players on a “Big Board” in terms of their slotted position relative to other prospects, most scouting involves rating of a different kind. Rating and identifying the strengths and weaknesses of players in different sets of specific skills is the heart of scouting.

As such, heading into the NHL draft you will often see that teams will agree on the merits of a player’s abilities in different areas, but they value particular abilities differently. Some want fast players, others wants smart ones, and others want a guy who is going to win board battles. As a fun exercise, this column displays the top 2015 NHL draft prospects ranked by their abilities in six key areas.

Top 10 skaters

1. Connor McDavid, C

2. Noah Hanifin, D

3. Kyle Connor, LW

4. Travis Konecny, C

5. Jack Eichel, C

6. Mathew Barzal, C

7. Oliver Kylington, D

8. Zach Senyshyn, RW

9. Denis Guryanov, LW

10. Daniel Sprong, RW

McDavid is on a level of his own, as he usually is, in this area. He’s the only player I’ve seen that has caused a fellow scout I sat next to at a game yell “He gone” when he got a step on a defenseman. I don’t think Barzal has the pure speed of the rest of the players on this list, but his agility and edges are clearly the best; if he gets an inch of space from a standstill, you can’t check him. Guryanov is a power forward with his size and how well he skates north-south and challenges defenders to keep him in front. Sprong has an electric element to his game with how well he gets through the neutral zone.

Top 10 puck skills

1. Connor McDavid, C

2. Jack Eichel, C

3. Mitch Marner, C

4. Mathew Barzal, C

5. Evgeni Svechnikov, LW

6. Travis Konecny, C

7. Dylan Strome, C

8. Daniel Sprong, RW

9. Jeremy Bracco, RW

10. Nick Merkley, RW

The top four in this area are not too far apart, but there’s a slight-to-moderate gap between each of them before a drop to Svechnikov. McDavid, Eichel, Marner and Barzal can all dance circles around people. McDavid stands out because of how well he handles the puck at full speed. Svechnikov has a real smooth and easy puck handling style, and he makes a lot of difficult plays seem easy.

Top 10 passers

1. Connor McDavid, C

2. Jack Eichel, C

3. Dylan Strome, C

4. Mathew Barzal, C

5. Mitch Marner, C

6. Jeremy Bracco, RW

7. Oliver Kylington, D

8. Travis Konecny, C

9. Zach Werenski, D

10. Denis Malgin, C

The “big two forwards” are actually pushed in this area by Strome, and if you wanted to argue him higher it wouldn’t be considered unreasonable. Bracco’s vision is commonly referred to in glowing terms in the scouting industry. Kylington appearing this high among the top forwards in the class speaks to how gifted a puck mover he is, but this ranking also shows how much he needs to round out his game. Malgin, who probably won’t go in the top two rounds, is a big sleeper in this class, and a player I rate highly.

Top 10 hockey IQs

1. Connor McDavid, C

2. Jack Eichel , C

3. Dylan Strome, C

4. Mitch Marner, C

5. Mathew Barzal, C

6. Lawson Crouse, LW

7. Ivan Provorov, D

8. Travis Konecny, C

9. Anthony Beauvillier, LW

10. Colin White, C

Crouse is often dinged for his lack of production and being a “low upside” guy in discussions I see online, but frankly that’s just not true. He’s a very aware two-way player who makes a lot of good decisions and reads. If one wants to ding his puck skills, that’s a real discussion to have, but the guy can play, and knows how to make things happen. Provorov is such a smooth, quiet player who can flash high-end offensive moments too. His defensive play has shown to be quite advanced at times. White is along the same lines, albeit as a forward. I’ve never been “wowed” by him, but he’s the kind of player who will take tough assignments and end up on the score sheet every night.

Top 10 shots

1. Daniel Sprong, RW

2. Nikita Korostelev, LW

3. Pavel Zacha, C

4. Brock Boeser, RW

5. Paul Bittner, LW

6. Anthony Beauvillier, LW

7. Jack Eichel, C

8. Timo Meier, LW

9. Ryan Gropp, LW

10. Rasmus Andersson, D

Sprong, Korostelev, Zacha, Boeser and Bittner are a top tier for me in this category. They have absolute cannons for shots and can locate too. Sprong has been a real deadly goal scorer in the QMJHL the last two seasons and Korostelev sends goalies into a panic when he winds up a one-timer. Boeser is a big, strong man, and really leans into his shots, utilizing all his strength.

Top 10 physical games

1. Lawson Crouse, LW

2. Brock Boeser, RW

3. Brandon Carlo, D

4. Erik Cernak, D

5. Paul Bittner, LW

6. Pavel Zacha, C

7. Mitchell Stephens, C

8. Filip Ahl, LW

9. Kyle Connor, LW

10. Gabriel Carlsson, D

Crouse is a beast -- plain and simple. He’s so big and strong, and uses his frame to win battles, get in lanes and separate players from pucks. He’s a legitimate scoring power forward. Boeser is a different cloth in that he’s a great puck protector. Carlo and Cernak both win a number of battles, although Cernak is more inconsistent with his physicality in that he tries to hit too often and can whiff at times. Guys like Stephens and Connor don’t have the size of others mentioned here, but they work their tails off and get pucks due to their intangibles.

 

[JBM73]

Sorry, another ESPN Insider article.

 

[mall3013]

Jeff Reese could take job with Dallas Stars: Could Flyers get compensation? - Broad Street Hockey

 

[awaz]

Sorry, another ESPN Insider article.

Makes me want Konecny again. (behind Barzal of course)

 

[JBM73]

Makes me want Konecny again. (behind Barzal of course)

I was surprised to see Hanifin, Provorov and Werenski only make the list in one category each. And, who is this Sprong guy who cracked the top 10 in 3 categories, including #1 in "Top shots"?