2015-2016 Offseason Thread

[hattersgonnahate]

wow chen and davis offered qo which is 15.3 to 15.8 million . if i was chen i would take that offer he want make close to that in 2 years . i think davis can get 20 million a year i think 4 years with option for a 5th is the length he will get from someone . roch says the o's haven't decided on a qo for matt he isn't worth that type money just like chen .

I think this is the right move-- $15.8 is a reasonable price considering that Davis has produced ~3.8 WAR/year as an Oriole, while the figure for Chen is about ~2.5 WAR/year. For Wieters, the number is ~2.2 WAR/year and trending down (it's close to ~1.1 WAR/year over the last three seasons).

(That being said... if you believe that Wieters is more likely to repeat his 2011-12 seasons than 2014-15, a QO might barely make sense since the free agency price tag is about $8M per WAR nowadays...)

 

[tedman2012]

I think this is the right move-- $15.8 is a reasonable price considering that Davis has produced ~3.8 WAR/year as an Oriole, while the figure for Chen is about ~2.5 WAR/year. For Wieters, the number is ~2.2 WAR/year and trending down (it's close to ~1.1 WAR/year over the last three seasons).

(That being said... if you believe that Wieters is more likely to repeat his 2011-12 seasons than 2014-15, a QO might barely make sense since the free agency price tag is about $8M per WAR nowadays...)

i would hate to think i would have close to 48 million on 3 guys that would only be trying to get better deals after that one year . like so many on here about being done with nolan which will stay on the 40 man for next year . i think caleb and cleve can handle the c spot until sisco is ready in a year or so . trey mancini is being our top prospect and is head and shoulder ahead of sisco . trey could play today at first . i'm sure the o's wants the draft picks but matt would be the one that would most likely take the offer for a one year deal .

 

[mikeytheman247]

No brainers for both. Chen should decline looking for a longer term contract. What if he accepts and then gets lit up next year? His stock will be way down.

 

[mikeytheman247]

The Orioles are believed to be hesitant to make a qualifying offer to Matt Wietersand will only do so if they’re convinced that he won’t take it. (I can’t imagine a Scott Boras client that plays a premium position in the midst of his prime age doing so under any circumstances.)

 

[UVA_Guy81]

The Orioles are believed to be hesitant to make a qualifying offer to Matt Wietersand will only do so if they’re convinced that he won’t take it. (I can’t imagine a Scott Boras client that plays a premium position in the midst of his prime age doing so under any circumstances.)

I can understand the Orioles being hesitant on him. If the Orioles gave him the offer, I could seriously see Wieters accepting it since with his past seasons stats and not being fully healthy, nobody is likely going to pay him that in free agency. He'd play a year under the QO to show he's still healthy and can be productive, then elect for free agency and get the big money deal. But then again, I've been wrong on stuff like this plenty of times before.

 

[mikeytheman247]

I can understand the Orioles being hesitant on him. If the Orioles gave him the offer, I could seriously see Wieters accepting it since with his past seasons stats and not being fully healthy, nobody is likely going to pay him that in free agency. He'd play a year under the QO to show he's still healthy and can be productive, then elect for free agency and get the big money deal. But then again, I've been wrong on stuff like this plenty of times before.

He could definitely do that, I think that's what the O's are worried about. However, Boras of course wants the biggest long term deals possible. Other problem for Matt is if he takes it and has another season like this one or worse would really hurt his stock after next year.

 

[mikeytheman247]

The Orioles have claimed righty Vance Worley off waivers from the Pirates, according to a team announcement. Baltimore designated fellow right-hander Jorge Rondon to create roster space.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

The Orioles have claimed righty Vance Worley off waivers from the Pirates, according to a team announcement. Baltimore designated fellow right-hander Jorge Rondon to create roster space.

Woohoo! Book those 2016 playoff tickets now!

 

[mikeytheman247]

Two of the most heralded prospects in recent memory — Jurickson Profar of the Rangers and Dylan Bundy of the Orioles, both just 22 years of age — are set to participate in the Arizona Fall League after long injury layoffs, according to team announcements.

The news had long been expected for Profar, who was named to the roster already. But he’ll now be activated for the first time, meaning he is no longer on the 60-day DL and will take up a roster spot. Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun reported on Bundy yesterday, explaining that the Orioles want him to see some live action before the spring. Per the team announcement, he’ll take the AFL spot of righty Jon Keller.

 

[mikeytheman247]

• The Orioles like Daniel Murphy and could show interest in him this offseasonwrites MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, though Kubatko himself admits that it is difficult to see how Murphy fits onto the roster. Jonathan Schoop and Manny Machado have Murphy’s two primary positions locked down, although as Kubatko notes, Murphy has experience a first base, and the O’s have the DH spot available as well. Murphy could, conceivably, rotate through those four spots in the lineup, giving Machado and Schoop breathers in the field and serving as insurance in the event of an injury. Nonetheless, he seems like an imperfect fit, or at least one that may not address the club’s top need, which is in the rotation.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Looks like Wieters is indeed going to get a QO. Per MLBTradeRumors:

The Orioles intend to make a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to catcher Matt Wieters, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). Olney further notes (Twitter link) that the Braves, on paper, seem to be a good fit with Wieters, given their protected first-round pick and lack of certainty behind the plate. Wieters, of course, played his college ball at Georgia Tech and saw longtime teammate Nick Markakis head from Baltimore to Atlanta on last year’s free agent market.

The Orioles, of course, will receive a compensatory draft pick between the first and second rounds of next year’s draft in the event that Wieters rejects the offer and signs with another team. A rival club would have to surrender its top unprotected draft pick (the first 10 picks in next year’s draft are protected) in order to sign Wieters. And, of course, the Orioles are free to pursue Wieters as a free agent even if rejects the offer.

Recent reports have indicated that the Orioles weren’t certain whether or not they’d make the offer to Wieters, but they’ve apparently now made up their minds. The thinking at MLBTR has long been that it’s a logical course of option for the O’s, as a prime-aged catcher that’s represented by one of the more outspoken critics of the QO system Scott Boras, never figured to be the first to accept such an offer. (And if he did, a healthier Wieters at $15.8MM on a one-year deal is probably a good value, anyway.) MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explored the scenario in further detail in recent Offseason Outlook on the Orioles.

Wieters, 29, struggled to some extent in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. As MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes explained in Wieters’ free agent profile, elbow tendinitis kept him on the DL to open the season and delayed his season debut until June. Additionally, he only caught on back-to-back days four times this season as he re-acclimated himself to the rigors of the position. Nonetheless, Wieters’ 31 percent caught-stealing rate was right in line with his career norm and the surprisingly high league average in 2015 (both 32 percent).

At the plate, Wieters was solid, albeit unspectacular, slashing .267/.319/.422 with eight homers in 282 plate appearances. That batting line translates to a park-adjusted OPS of 100 — exactly league average — which is in line with Wieters’ career marks. (He was off to a much better start in 2014 before tearing the UCL in his throwing elbow.) While league-average production isn’t the most exciting concept in the world, it’s extremely valuable when coming from behind the plate; the league-average catcher in 2015, for instance, hit just .232/.295/.383, leaving them about 14 percent below league-average production.

While Boras and his team could theoretically eye something in the Brian McCann/Russell Martin mold for Wieters this winter, Tim predicted that Wieters can land a four-year commitment worth somewhere in the vicinity of $16MM on an annual basis in a weak market where he looks to be the only reasonably young starting option with a track record of success at the Major League level.

Wieters figures to be one of three Baltimore free agents to receive and reject a qualifying offer, with fellow Boras clients Chris Davis and Wei-Yin Chen serving as much more concrete cases. Other Orioles free agents such as Darren O’Day and Steve Pearce won’t receive the QO, while Gerardo Parra is ineligible to receive one after coming over via trade from the Brewers midseason (though he probably wouldn’t command one anyhow).

 

[tedman2012]

hats off to o day the o's are going to be offered the right to match any offer he gets . maybe we want screw it up again . but if it's over 5 million good bye oday

 

[tedman2012]

of all the fa davis is the most important one to resign . pearce isn't nothing but a blocker of trey mancini and walker . matt who the hell cares i hope he goes . i'm not for sure if i wouldn't move davis to rf if resigned and let trey and walker fight it out for first . for right price love to have oday back but givens is his replacement . we need a ace lhp price comes to mind .

so we could be good to go with only price and davis signed .

alvarez , uuuuuu , aj , nolan , davis , manny , schoop , jj , trey , caleb , flarety , the utility guy would be janish and cleve pitchers tilly , price , bundy , gausman , waldo , matusz may be a starter or mcfarland givens , britton , gonzo and drake

 

[The Moose]

Looks like Wieters is indeed going to get a QO. Per MLBTradeRumors:

The Orioles intend to make a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to catcher Matt Wieters, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). Olney further notes (Twitter link) that the Braves, on paper, seem to be a good fit with Wieters, given their protected first-round pick and lack of certainty behind the plate. Wieters, of course, played his college ball at Georgia Tech and saw longtime teammate Nick Markakis head from Baltimore to Atlanta on last year’s free agent market.

The Orioles, of course, will receive a compensatory draft pick between the first and second rounds of next year’s draft in the event that Wieters rejects the offer and signs with another team. A rival club would have to surrender its top unprotected draft pick (the first 10 picks in next year’s draft are protected) in order to sign Wieters. And, of course, the Orioles are free to pursue Wieters as a free agent even if rejects the offer.

Recent reports have indicated that the Orioles weren’t certain whether or not they’d make the offer to Wieters, but they’ve apparently now made up their minds. The thinking at MLBTR has long been that it’s a logical course of option for the O’s, as a prime-aged catcher that’s represented by one of the more outspoken critics of the QO system Scott Boras, never figured to be the first to accept such an offer. (And if he did, a healthier Wieters at $15.8MM on a one-year deal is probably a good value, anyway.) MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explored the scenario in further detail in recent Offseason Outlook on the Orioles.

Wieters, 29, struggled to some extent in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. As MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes explained in Wieters’ free agent profile, elbow tendinitis kept him on the DL to open the season and delayed his season debut until June. Additionally, he only caught on back-to-back days four times this season as he re-acclimated himself to the rigors of the position. Nonetheless, Wieters’ 31 percent caught-stealing rate was right in line with his career norm and the surprisingly high league average in 2015 (both 32 percent).

At the plate, Wieters was solid, albeit unspectacular, slashing .267/.319/.422 with eight homers in 282 plate appearances. That batting line translates to a park-adjusted OPS of 100 — exactly league average — which is in line with Wieters’ career marks. (He was off to a much better start in 2014 before tearing the UCL in his throwing elbow.) While league-average production isn’t the most exciting concept in the world, it’s extremely valuable when coming from behind the plate; the league-average catcher in 2015, for instance, hit just .232/.295/.383, leaving them about 14 percent below league-average production.

While Boras and his team could theoretically eye something in the Brian McCann/Russell Martin mold for Wieters this winter, Tim predicted that Wieters can land a four-year commitment worth somewhere in the vicinity of $16MM on an annual basis in a weak market where he looks to be the only reasonably young starting option with a track record of success at the Major League level.

Wieters figures to be one of three Baltimore free agents to receive and reject a qualifying offer, with fellow Boras clients Chris Davis and Wei-Yin Chen serving as much more concrete cases. Other Orioles free agents such as Darren O’Day and Steve Pearce won’t receive the QO, while Gerardo Parra is ineligible to receive one after coming over via trade from the Brewers midseason (though he probably wouldn’t command one anyhow).

Catching is so thin in MLB, Wieters will surely be over paid by some team. He's going to clean up.

 

[The Moose]

of all the fa davis is the most important one to resign . pearce isn't nothing but a blocker of trey mancini and walker . matt who the hell cares i hope he goes . i'm not for sure if i wouldn't move davis to rf if resigned and let trey and walker fight it out for first . for right price love to have oday back but givens is his replacement . we need a ace lhp price comes to mind .

so we could be good to go with only price and davis signed .

alvarez , uuuuuu , aj , nolan , davis , manny , schoop , jj , trey , caleb , flarety , the utility guy would be janish and cleve pitchers tilly , price , bundy , gausman , waldo , matusz may be a starter or mcfarland givens , britton , gonzo and drake

David Price isn't signing with the Orioles. The owner won't pay that much. Plus, I'll bet the house he wants to sign with the Cubs so he can play for Maddon again. And the Cubs have the money to sign him.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Catching is so thin in MLB, Wieters will surely be over paid by some team. He's going to clean up.

I don't doubt that one bit. I have a feeling that the Braves will make a big run at him, especially since their 1st rounder is protected if they sign him.

David Price isn't signing with the Orioles. The owner won't pay that much. Plus, I'll bet the house he wants to sign with the Cubs so he can play for Maddon again. And the Cubs have the money to sign him.

While I agree that he likely won't sign with the O's (the last big pitching contract we gave out to Ubaldo was awful), it's still somewhat possible. At least if he signs with the Cubs, we won't have to deal with him but their starting pitching with him, Lester and Arrieta would be hard to beat for those NL teams.

 

[mikeytheman247]

The Tigers, Nationals, and Red Sox are among the other teams with interest in O'Day, who finds himself near the top of a weak class of free agent relievers. Crasnick was told by some execs that O'Day's contract will likely come in well above Luke Gregerson's three-year, $18.5 million deal with the Astros last winter. It's hard to say he doesn't deserve it. The sidearmer owns a 1.92 ERA over the past four seasons.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

The Tigers, Nationals, and Red Sox are among the other teams with interest in O'Day, who finds himself near the top of a weak class of free agent relievers. Crasnick was told by some execs that O'Day's contract will likely come in well above Luke Gregerson's three-year, $18.5 million deal with the Astros last winter. It's hard to say he doesn't deserve it. The sidearmer owns a 1.92 ERA over the past four seasons.

I think he is (or was) the perfect setup guy to Britton. I think the Gregerson type deal would be worth it to re-sign him.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Got this from MLBTradeRumors:

The Orioles and Reds have engaged in discussions regarding Cincinnati outfielder Jay Bruce, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. But there isn’t any “momentum” toward a trade, at least at this point.

There’s a lot to like about Bruce as a player, but his trade value remains uncertain. He’s a perennial threat to hit 25 to 30 long balls, a quality baserunner, and a generally well-regarded defender in the corner outfield. But Bruce has fallen shy of the league average in OBP in each of the last two years and his defense and baserunning metrics have also dipped — though, it should be noted, DRS saw him as a +5 defender in right last year. Then again, the power is still there, as his .209 ISO in 2015 fell just shy of a .215 career mark. And youth is still on his side.

Bruce is still just 28 years of age as he enters his ninth big league season. He’ll earn $12.5MM in 2016 and can be controlled for the following year with a $13MM option — or be bought out for $1MM. That’s not exactly cheap given Bruce’s inconsistent results, but the O’s have payroll flexibility even after adding Wieters onto the ledger.

Whether or not discussions go anywhere, it’s worth considering Baltimore’s interest. The team is also said to have checked in on another short-term, high-priced lefty bat in Pirates second baseman Neil Walker, though Bruce makes for a more obvious fit given the team’s needs in the corner outfield. With Matt Wieters deciding to return on a pricey, one-year deal by accepting his qualifying offer, it could be that the O’s are looking to add quality veterans around him — and to fill in for the southpaw power production of Chris Davis — without over-committing for future seasons.

 

[mikeytheman247]

I wish they would just pay Davis instead.