2012-13 Articles, Links, and Blogs

[nuraman00]

Craig (Braintree, MA)


Jazz or Lakers?

Michael Wallace
(2:36 PM)


I'm hoping Jazz, but I believe the Lakers will do it.

 

[nuraman00]

Robin ((Ottawa, ON))


Valunciunas - quite a March. How do you project him going forwar based on what you've seen?

Michael Wallace
(2:57 PM)


It goes back to what I said earlier. Toronto has some nice, quality pieces on that roster. I'd like to see them add an outside shooter and another banger/rebounder inside off the bench. This should be a playoff team in the east next season if Rudy Gay comes back with a point to prove that he's an elite player in this league.

 

[nuraman00]

Brandon (Utah)


What's your opinion on Derrick Favors's development and do you think he's on schedule/behind schedule/ahead of schedule with it?


Kevin Pelton
(2:19 PM)


I think we can get a little too tied to this mindset that there's a schedule for player development. I've written about this in the past, but development curves only seem smooth with the benefit of hindsight. In reality, there are all sorts of fits and starts along the path from potential to production, and Favors is following that. I think we'll know more if he gets a bigger role next season.

 

[nuraman00]

Ryan (Denver)


If Favors and Kanter start for the jazz next year, are they better or worse than this year record wise?

Kevin Pelton
(2:32 PM)


Depends who is backing them up. That's potentially a bigger drop-off.

 

[nuraman00]

Armand (Maryland)


Who projects best going forward out of Enes Kanter, Derrick Favors, Jonas Valanciunas, and Tristan Thompson?

Kevin Pelton
(4:20 PM)


I would say Favors > Valanciunas > Thompson > Kanter.

 

[nuraman00]

Chris (Sandy, UT)


What is the likelihood of the Jazz trading for Eric Bledsoe during the offseason? Could he be the answer at point guard for the future with the Jazz' young core?

Kevin Pelton
(4:34 PM)


I think that window might have passed. If the Jazz is going to get Bledsoe now, it's probably going to require giving up a quality young piece in return instead of someone like Millsap.

 

[nuraman00]

Tyler (SLC)


Should the Jazz pursue Jeff Teague? and is there a contract offer Alanta doesn't match? How much is too much for Teague?


Kevin Pelton
(1:54 PM)


Yes. I think they match at least up to $10 million a year, pending CP3 deciding he wants to play in Atlanta. I would say anything more than that is definitely too much.

 

[nuraman00]

chris (salt lake)


Who do you like better, Kanter or Favors?

Kevin Pelton
(2:37 PM)


Favors

 

[nuraman00]

Armand (Taco Bar)


What kind of money do you see Hayward and Favors commanding through extensions or free agency?

Kevin Pelton
(3:13 PM)


I see Hayward somewhere around 4/35. I don't think Favors would sign an extension because he'll likely have an opportunity to increase his value immensely as a starter. I think his next deal averages at least 10 million.

 

[nuraman00]

Jack (Bay Area)


Did Lin hurt the Rockets more during the post season than help? Was this because of injuries or is he really overrated like everyone said?

Kevin Pelton
(3:30 PM)


I don't think three injury-marred games really added much to our understanding of Lin. He's an average to slightly below starting point guard with extreme strengths and weaknesses.

 

[nuraman00]

Christopher (SLC)


Isn't it pretty obvious now that the warriors tanked last season?

Kevin Pelton
(3:37 PM)


I wouldn't say it's more or less obvious now than it was then. What is obvious now is that karma didn't punish them for it.

 

[nuraman00]

Adam (Utah)


The starting lineup for the Jazz next year is...?

Kevin Pelton
(3:47 PM)


Teague/Foye/Hayward/Millsap/Favors

 

[nuraman00]

Kevin Pelton
(4:09 PM)


On that note, I think I'm going to wrap things up with a new personal record of three hours and nine minutes. Thanks everybody for supplying the questions needed to keep going. Hope you enjoyed it and I'll see you back here next week.

 

[MHSL82]

Jack (Bay Area)


Did Lin hurt the Rockets more during the post season than help? Was this because of injuries or is he really overrated like everyone said?

Kevin Pelton
(3:30 PM)


I don't think three injury-marred games really added much to our understanding of Lin. He's an average to slightly below starting point guard with extreme strengths and weaknesses.

In the wrong system, IMO. Doesn't mean he isn't average to below average, but the extreme strengths could be used more and limit the weaknesses. I do not like Houston's system for him and him being secondary to Harden is not good for a PG who should be the facilitator who can score. Too many stand by the three point line and watch - maybe get it, maybe not, and maybe at the buzzer.

 

[nuraman00]

Norman (NY)


5 years from what's the better front court combo, Monroe-Drummond or Favors-Kanter (assuming they're still together)?

Kevin Pelton
(3:54 PM)


Monroe-Drummond.

 

[nuraman00]

Chris (SLC)


David Locke recently posted an interesting comparison of Gordon Hayward's career compared to that of Paul George. I have also heard on local radio a guy say that "had the Jazz picked Paul George over Hayward the Jazz would have made the playoffs this year. Agree?

Kevin Pelton
(1:50 PM)


We've had these questions several times, and again defense is a major point of differentiation between the two guys. Hayward is average on D and Paul George is one of the best wings in the league. Given how close the Jazz were to making the playoffs anyway, and that Hayward was injured a bit more than George, I would say that Utah would definitely have made the playoffs with George.

Kevin Pelton
(1:50 PM)


But I think for Hayward's sake, it's best to lay off these comparisons and let him be his own player.



Jay (Utah)


Do you see the Jazz drafting a PG or do you think it is more realistic that they try a sign and trade with Millsap and/or Jefferson or one of the other FA's they have to get somebody like Bledsoe? If they draft one, who is the best fit?

Kevin Pelton
(3:41 PM)


Both.




Arun (Texas)


What would it take to re-align the divisions to make more sense?

Kevin Pelton
(3:30 PM)



Arun (Texas)


Division = proximity so you play more games. Now it could end up in a way that you Dallas plays Portland, Sacramento 4 games and San Antonio and Houston 3 Games. is that not worse?

Kevin Pelton
(3:40 PM)


We're talking a difference of one trip every four years or so, on average. I don't think that's a big factor.

Getting rid of them altogether is the simplest solution.



Arun (Texas)


"Is NBA officiating good? Be honest.", come on speak from your heart. Stars are treated differently. Rookies are treated differently. Is that even officiating? Officiating is done with business in mind.

Kevin Pelton
(3:56 PM)


If you think that referees look at a play and say, "Oh, that's a star player, I have to call a foul," we'll agree to disagree. You know why stars draw so many fouls? Because they're impossible to defend without fouling.



Arun (Texas)


Are you disagreeing what the commentators(former players) say? "He is a rookie he is going to get called for that.." "The refrees are aware that Lebron has 5 fouls that they will not call 6th". etc

Kevin Pelton
(4:02 PM)


Yes, I am disagreeing with that.



Gardner (Coburg, DE)


The Jazz could really do anything in this upcoming draft. What bigs do you see as good fits next to Favors & Kanter. Also, are there any good rebounding guards who play defense? The Jazz backcourt last year could not rebound...

Kevin Pelton
(4:01 PM)


Olynyk might be a good fit as a big. Not a lot of rebounding/defense guards in the middle/late first round. Jamaal Franklin, but he's probably too similar to Alec Burks tomake sense.

 

[nuraman00]

Christopher (SeaTac)


What can the local Seattle ABC affiliate do in future years to avoid preempting Jeopardy with the NBA Finals?

Kevin Pelton
(4:39 PM)


Primetime Jeopardy is great.


Matt (Utah)


What are the odds that one out of the trio of Favors, Kanter and Hayward make an All-Star team?

Kevin Pelton
(4:47 PM)


One of them at any point in their career? Probably 75-25.


Lon (SLC)


Does the amnesty provision have to be utilized by a certain date, or can an organization keep it in their pocket indefinitely?

Kevin Pelton
(4:54 PM)


The summer of 2015 is the last year it can be used. In practice, by then anyone eligible for amnesty should be in the last year of their deals, I think.


Wally B. (NYC)


Geeking to read the draft rater, but can you give us a preview -- any Late 1st/2nd round sleepers you're high on? Wolters? Ricky Ledo? Mike Muscala? Isaiah Canaan? Oh, and any towel-waving discussion should include the the Jackie Robinson of the absorbent fabric lively arts, M.L. Carr.

Kevin Pelton
(5:12 PM)


Saving the Draft Rater surprises for Monday, but I want to post any comment that includes the phrase "Jackie Robinson of the absorbent fabric lively arts." Kudos.



Frank (Philly)


Do you project Tobias Harris as a power forward or a small forward?

Kevin Pelton
(5:21 PM)


Good rule of thumb I've stolen from Kevin Arnovitz: If you have to ask, he's a power forward.


Stephen (Denver, CO)


Visiting Seattle for the 1st time this summer. Any tourist things that are a must?

Kevin Pelton
(5:36 PM)


Kinda hard to say since I don't really do the tourist things! But besides the obvious ones (Space Needle, Pike Place Market, waterfront) I'd suggest taking the water taxi over to West Seattle and checking out Alki Beach. Great view of the city from over there.

ack (Au)


Could you please explain why Magic and Bird are always in top-5 discussions given their lesser peaks (compared to CP3, Shaq, Duncan, Garnett), short careers and that they weren't elite at half the game of basketball! Is it just popularity/nostalgia at play?

Kevin Pelton
(5:38 PM)


You lost me at "lesser peaks."


Jimmy (Chicago)


Are there any metrics that measure how good of hands a player has? Maybe somethign that accounts for times a player is stripped, fumbles a pass, etc. It seems useful because there are a ton of players that are great atheletes and kill you because they had bad hands.

Kevin Pelton
(5:40 PM)


82games.com breaks down turnovers by type, so maybe you could do something with that divided by passes caught if such a thing was tracked. But that's one that is pretty easy to tell from the eye test.



Oskar (Georgetown)


Would Abdul Gaddy get more interest from NBA teams if he changed his name to Kareem Abdul Gaddy?

Kevin Pelton
(5:43 PM)


Only if he simultaneously developed a sky hook.


Daniel (San Rafael, CA)


What player/prospect was your initial in-person impression the most correct and incorrect on?

Kevin Pelton
(5:51 PM)


Hmm. I saw Paul George in person during his freshman year at Fresno State and thought he was nothing special. So that stands out negatively. On the positive side, I was convinced that Gilbert Arenas was the best of the players on his Arizona team, and that worked out pretty well. (With all due respect to Richard Jefferson.)




Bob (Chicago)


I'm moving to Seattle in a couple weeks and need to find a new comic book shop. Any advice? That's really my most pressing concern

Kevin Pelton
(5:57 PM)


You've got the wrong guy. Surprisingly, never have been into comic books. If I was at a store it was only to get Rich Amaral cards.

 

[nuraman00]

Andy G. (MD)


WHAT!!!!!! "post scoring" (not sure what's up with the quotes - "stupid") isn't a weakness in the "modern NBA" (that's where you're quotes belong), are you crazy! That's why Duncan is still in the league, Bynum is just two seasons removed from dominating teams, and why you're gonna see Detroit make the fourth seed, at least.

Kevin Pelton
(5:13 PM)


Sorry for the delay, but I wanted to run some numbers on this. Last year, the correlation between the % of times that teams posted up (via Synergy) and their offensive rating was -0.153. As in the more you post up, the less efficiently you score. Now that doesn't include, for example, spot-up scores off of 3s. And many of the top post-up teams are in fact very good defensively. But Al Jefferson is not going to help you defensively.

 

[nuraman00]

Jon (Philly)


Obviously, I love the sixers making tanking moves. However, they have to fill out the roster with more than just summer league guys, right?

Kevin Pelton
(5:29 PM)


... maybe not?

 

[nuraman00]

Deric (Tacoma)


Let's assume Wiggins is a top 5 player in the NBA in 3-4 years. Put him on _____ lottery team and that team will be a legit title contender in a few years. My immediate thought is Orlando--Wiggins, Oladipo, Harris, and Vucevic is a great core. The other team I thought would be Utah--that's another great young core.

Kevin Pelton
(5:32 PM)


I'd have Utah at the top of my list. I think he's a slightly better fit for their existing talent, depending on Oladipo's ability to play point guard.