How do you develop a succesful trade offer?

[ZepTepi]

I'm someone who has always struggled with trades and because of this have been involved in very few in all the years(16 years) I've been involved in FFB. I think I've been involved in maybe 2-3 trades in all that time and all were offers made to me by desperate owners and were heavily in my favor. All I had to do was hit "accept". Not much thought was necessary. Unfortunately every time I've wanted to find a trade to improve my team it's failed to work, usually because I have been unable to come up with something anyone would accept. It's been the most frustrating aspect of FFB for me. I've come to dread seeing others make trades that help them because I usually feel like it's a means of improving their team that is unavailable to me even though I know that's not true in the literal sense. I am not someone who makes ridiculous trade offers that benefit only me. I always try to make "fair" offers when possible.

I am posting this now because I find myself in the following position for which a trade seems like the best way to address this problem:

I just had a draft(12 team) that went badly for me in a technical sense. Due to both connection & interface issues I ended up with a team that has two QBs(M.Ryan & J.Cutler) with the same bye week and then drafted a 3rd QB(A.Smith) to cover that bye week. I'm also very week in WR position with M.Floyd, M.Colston, R.Randle, & J.Maclin as my top 4 WR's. So the obvious thing to do, in my mind at least, is to find a team that's weak at QB and strong at WR with whom to attempt a trade. There is a team in said league that ended up with J.McCown & R.Fitzpatrick as their QBs and D.Thomas, V.Cruz, R.White, T.Smith, & R.Wayne as their top 5 WRs. I initially thought I could possibly offer Cutler for R.White or V.Cruz but all the analysis I've done says that trade would be heavily in my favor should be declined by the other team. So I'm back to the drawing board in trying to figure this out.

How do you go about coming up with successful trades??? What is wrong with my mindset in this regard?

 

[ROMOTOOWENS]

Thats a good strategy. I think he might accept. He doesnt need all those WRs. I think Cutler if healthy can have a really good season. Im not an expert like these others. I have also had success just trading my best player usually a RB, especially if I can turn it into two good players, or eeven 3 pretty good players.

 

[wilwhite]

Yeah, that's a terrible trade. Why would I trade a top-20 WR for what should be a backup QB? (Per projections anyway.) I can stream waiver QBs and probably do about as well. Ryan is only a little better, but you might get a bite with him.

There's a rule of thumb: whoever gets the best player in the deal "wins." So you usually have to "overpay" to get the best player in the deal (and Roddy - 4th round ADP - is clearly "better" than Cutler - 7th round ADP). Cutler + Colston might get it done.

 

[ROMOTOOWENS]

Thats what I meant by saying trading your best player. Someone will overpay you to get your first or second best player .

 

[ROMOTOOWENS]

I still would try it. Cutler has two beasts to throw it too as does McCown however Cutlers are better. This trade improves his team as it would yours IMO.

 

[Xponentialchaos]

Not worth trying it imo. That's a horrible trade offer and may even sour future attempts.

According to Matthew Berry's rankings, White is a 4th rounder and Cutler is an 8th rounder. Would you ever give up that kind of value in a trade before the season has started??? I sure as hell wouldn't, even with that weakness at QB.

Try to really see it from his perspective. If I'm in his shoes, yes I see that I have a weakness at QB. But there is no freaking way that I'm giving up one of my best players for a guy that is not even projected to be a starting caliber QB in this league. I'd rather stick with my QB's and maybe play the waiver wire to be at a small disadvantage instead of giving up the entire house for a slightly better option at QB.

 

[ZepTepi]

The fact that it's uneven is why I'm not making the offer. My goal is to figure out why I'm not seeing trade possibilities others do.

 

[DragonfromTO]

If you want to keep it as a simple QB for WR trade you could try targeting Smith instead, he's a little further down the board than White or Cruz (and further down his fantasy team's depth chart as well in this case). I personally still wouldn't make the trade if I were him but there's more of a chance that he might say yes.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

I have come to find that fair fantasy football trades are insanely hard to come by. First, owners tend to overrate their players. Second, no one wants to trade laterally unless they are too deep at a position. If they are too deep at a position, they will trade the guys who they choose to sit on their bench, but expect you to fill all the holes on their team with that trade. Very rarely does that lead to a fair trade.

 

[The Foot]

Zep. I may not be the greatest trader of all time all though I do feel I am pretty successful and a lot of my trades do end up in my favor over time(sorry for the brag), but one thing is for sure, I have a lot of experience in this department and I can tell you that when going after a player you want you have to dangle what would be considered more value than what you want or else there is no motivation for the other guy to do it.

Sometimes just offering a fair deal wont get it done. Like you said yourself the only deals you have excepted where deals in your favor. I personally have no problem over paying for a guy if I believe that guy is going to explode soon. I LOVE to trade cause I usually make my team better from it but i def dont win every time. You have to trust your gut and take a chances, if your trades go bad then you maske it up on the next one.

 

[TREFF]

I have come to find that fair fantasy football trades are insanely hard to come by. First, owners tend to overrate their players. Second, no one wants to trade laterally unless they are too deep at a position. If they are too deep at a position, they will trade the guys who they choose to sit on their bench, but expect you to fill all the holes on their team with that trade. Very rarely does that lead to a fair trade.

I'm one of those guys who don't trade laterally. Just don't see the point. A lateral trade just seems like making a move for the sake of making a move, not to improve my team. I don't often trade, beside I won't take a deal unless I feel like I came out a winner in the deal. Generally the only trades I make are with team owners have a drastically different take on a guy I really like, allowing me to get him on the cheap, or often as a throw in on a deal that would otherwise seem "fair". Some may not like this approach to trading, but, that's where it is and it works for my teams

 

[Chef99]

I'm one of those guys who don't trade laterally. Just don't see the point. A lateral trade just seems like making a move for the sake of making a move, not to improve my team. I don't often trade, beside I won't take a deal unless I feel like I came out a winner in the deal. Generally the only trades I make are with team owners have a drastically different take on a guy I really like, allowing me to get him on the cheap, or often as a throw in on a deal that would otherwise seem "fair". Some may not like this approach to trading, but, that's where it is and it works for my teams

I don't understand the concept of a lateral trade, either. Go big or crap out is my motto. Pretty sure I have crapped out more often, but I will never be one to spend days negotiating over every fine detail with someone. It is just not in my makeup.

 

[The Foot]

"Go big or crap out is my motto." CHEF stole my motto!

 

[Chef99]

"Go big or crap out is my motto." CHEF stole my motto!

I'll trade it if you like.

 

[averagejoe]

Zep, I have trouble putting together fair trades myself. But of trades that I have accepted from others, I've noticed a few common characteristics:

1) the trade is "win-win" for both sides. Both teams benefit from the trade.
2) the "offerer" seems to have given up more. If you want a player on another team, then offer them talent in return.
3) Don't throw in garbage players. It sends the signal that your offer is lopsided. Or that the person your dealing with is either desperate or stupid.
4) Quantity doesn't always equal quality. Not sure if a "3 player for 1" deal ever works, but it depends on the 3 players.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I like using the tier system first, followed by draft selection relativity and finished with team needs.

The tier system gives you an idea of what you need to add to get an upgrade at a certain position. If you want to turn Stevan Ridley into Ryan Mathews you'll probably need to offer a tier jump of the same magnitude at a position of need for the other owner.

Draft selection relativity is more relevant post draft and before September ends since value can still be seen as "projected". I'm usually not one to trade my 5th round pick for his 7th before games started, injuries or not. An example here is our MBBRL draft, I had a QB need post draft, but since i wasn't willing to use a 7th round pick or higher to draft one, I wasn't going to use anyone I did draft that hogh to get one...ended up trading my 8th rounder for him.

And finally, I don't offer the Peyton Manning owner, RG3 and DJax for Dez...because it has to make sense for the other owner!

 

[Chef99]

Zep, I have trouble putting together fair trades myself. But of trades that I have accepted from others, I've noticed a few common characteristics:

1) the trade is "win-win" for both sides. Both teams benefit from the trade.
2) the "offerer" seems to have given up more. If you want a player on another team, then offer them talent in return.
3) Don't throw in garbage players. It sends the signal that your offer is lopsided. Or that the person your dealing with is either desperate or stupid.
4) Quantity doesn't always equal quality. Not sure if a "3 player for 1" deal ever works, but it depends on the 3 players.

All excellent points, Joe; #3 is dead-on, and while sometimes #4 can work (more often not, though), traders should always remember the tradee(?) also has to drop someone. Many times that is easier said than done.

 

[wilwhite]

My goal is to figure out why I'm not seeing trade possibilities others do.

Interesting question. I think the short answer is that you're not respecting the value of the other team's players.

You only give one example, but looks like you were combining "provide better balance for both teams" with "trade a guy I don't value for a guy I do." The first part is good, but the second part usually won't work because, as was pointed out above, people are high on their own players (after all, they drafted them before anyone else did). Unwise to offer a guy somebody passed on (Cutler) straight up for a guy he took earlier (Roddy).

A bad offer can get you a bad rep. In this case you're offering a common commodity for a rarer one, like seeing that a guy with two cars is hungry and offering him a sandwich for one of them. Yes, he could use the sandwich, and no, he's not going to give you a car.

Very hard to do make a good pre-season trade offer unless you're either a) offering a guy that makes people salivate, or b) overpaying to fix a mistake. (This goes to Joe's great point about the offeror giving up more.)

In your situation, Ryan for Torrey Smith would be a reasonable starting offer (he probably took Torrey around the time you took Ryan), but it would probably be Ryan for Reggie Wayne that would get a deal done. (That trade wouldn't help you, though, because your problem isn't at WR3, it's at WR1, and you're probably not comfortable rolling with Cutler either.) So you can see how Cutler for Roddy is out of whack.

So to your bigger question about how to identify trade possibilities: evaluate your needs and your biggest assets. And look to make a difference. You obviously haven't listed your biggest assets, but I bet you have some pretty nice RBs.

If it were me, say I had AP and the other owner's best RB is Stacy - well, I'm high on Stacy and bummed he didn't make it back to me, and I have no WR1. I might offer AP and Cutler for DT and Stacy. He might not take it, but AP is a big enticement and it could start a conversation. (Always good to be offering the best player in the deal.)

 

[Bandit]

I've always thought when it comes to trades that the only way they make since is to trade across positions. I've never understood people that send me an offer running back for running back especially right after the draft. If I wanted that guy I would have drafted him when I had the chance. I can see sending a RB2 and WR1 for a RB1 and WR2 as that would make sense to me, or if you are deep at wide receiver and another guy is deep at running back, trading a WR1 for a RB1 would make sense. On the surface of things, trading Eddie Lacy for Antonio Brown doesn't make sense, but if the Eddie Lacy owner also has Gio Bernard and Montee Ball but his best wide receiver is Victor Cruz and the Antonio Brown owner has Brown, Dez, and Jordy Nelson, but his best running back is Reggie Bush, then that trade makes perfect sense. The biggest problem I've found in people's trades is that way too many guys seem to think that the total points for the season make a trade even. Let's say it's week 8 and I have Jimmy Graham who has 85 points at that point and a guy offers me Michael Floyd who has 83 points at that point. While the points match up, Graham is the #1 scoring tight end and 25 points ahead of the 2nd place guy and Floyd is the 15th best wide receiver in the middle of the pack. So just because the total points match up does not mean it's a fair trade and a lot of people don't seem to understand that.

 

[Xponentialchaos]

Interesting question. I think the short answer is that you're not respecting the value of the other team's players.

You only give one example, but looks like you were combining "provide better balance for both teams" with "trade a guy I don't value for a guy I do." The first part is good, but the second part usually won't work because, as was pointed out above, people are high on their own players (after all, they drafted them before anyone else did). Unwise to offer a guy somebody passed on (Cutler) straight up for a guy he took earlier (Roddy).

A bad offer can get you a bad rep. In this case you're offering a common commodity for a rarer one, like seeing that a guy with two cars is hungry and offering him a sandwich for one of them. Yes, he could use the sandwich, and no, he's not going to give you a car.

Very hard to do make a good pre-season trade offer unless you're either a) offering a guy that makes people salivate, or b) overpaying to fix a mistake. (This goes to Joe's great point about the offeror giving up more.)

In your situation, Ryan for Torrey Smith would be a reasonable starting offer (he probably took Torrey around the time you took Ryan), but it would probably be Ryan for Reggie Wayne that would get a deal done. (That trade wouldn't help you, though, because your problem isn't at WR3, it's at WR1, and you're probably not comfortable rolling with Cutler either.) So you can see how Cutler for Roddy is out of whack.

So to your bigger question about how to identify trade possibilities: evaluate your needs and your biggest assets. And look to make a difference. You obviously haven't listed your biggest assets, but I bet you have some pretty nice RBs.

If it were me, say I had AP and the other owner's best RB is Stacy - well, I'm high on Stacy and bummed he didn't make it back to me, and I have no WR1. I might offer AP and Cutler for DT and Stacy. He might not take it, but AP is a big enticement and it could start a conversation. (Always good to be offering the best player in the deal.)

Well said.