SOS and the CFP Committee

[4down20]

I know you're an Alabama fan and all, but I really don't think they deserved it in 2011. Sorry, but to me, you need to complete your conference obstacle course in order to qualify for the 4 team to 2 team playoff. It bothers me that teams can avoid upper crust competition and get rewarded for it. I know, it's wasn't an intentional dodge. Oklahoma State played a more difficult schedule. This is statistically backed up. They won their conference, and easily beat most of their competition. The only negative is their loss in OT to Iowa State, which was bowl eligible, and their loss happened hours before hearing tragic news.

When conferences are equal, I'll give this line of thought more credibility. But winning your conference because you played weaker teams in general doesn't even begin to register on things that matter to me.

Oklahoma St had a slightly more difficult schedule, yet under performed on that schedule way more than Alabama did on theirs, and that's the hang up. If both had went undefeated on the year, I would once again be in agreement with you. But since both teams had 1 loss each, that factors in as well. Especially since Oklahoma St didn't even come close to playing a team the same caliber as LSU that year. They only had a higher SoS than Alabama because of Alabama's lower end schedule(which does matter to me, but you are pretending like it was worlds better when it wasn't).

The only reason Iowa St was bowl eligible is because Oklahoma St lost to them.

 

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

When conferences are equal, I'll give this line of thought more credibility. But winning your conference because you played weaker teams in general doesn't even begin to register on things that matter to me.

Alabama only beat 3 teams with winning records in 2011. Oklahoma State beat 8. Colley Matrix had Alabama with a mid .500 SOS. Oklahoma State had a mid .600 SOS. Nice try.

 

[4down20]

Alabama only beat 3 teams with winning records in 2011. Oklahoma State beat 8. Colley Matrix had Alabama with a mid .500 SOS. Oklahoma State had a mid .600 SOS. Nice try.

I don't know where you get that 3 number, but I counted 5 teams during the regular season. 6 if not for a loss by 1 in a bowl game.

Oklahoma St has 7. And 1 of them is because a team won their bowl game(A&M was 6-6 heading into bowl game). So at the time this was going on, it would have been Oklahoma St 7, Alabama 6 in this measurement. Or if you don't count 6-6 teams, Oklahoma St 6, Alabama 5.

No clue where you got numbers that are so far off.

Meanwhile OkSt lost to a 6-6 team, and Alabama lost to a 13-0 team.

And win% is a horrible way of measuring schedule strength. That's like saying a team that went 6-6 while playing nothing but horrible teams all year is equal to a team that went 6-6 while playing nothing but the best teams all year. win% says they are equal, in reality it would be anything but. Cumulative win% SoS is a little better, but even that is flawed as well.

Not sure what method Colley Matrix uses, or why it's the gold standard here.

 

[Codaxx]

When conferences are equal, I'll give this line of thought more credibility. But winning your conference because you played weaker teams in general doesn't even begin to register on things that matter to me.

[/I]Oklahoma St had a slightly more difficult schedule, yet under performed on that schedule way more than Alabama did on theirs, and that's the hang up. If both had went undefeated on the year, I would once again be in agreement with you. But since both teams had 1 loss each, that factors in as well. Especially since Oklahoma St didn't even come close to playing a team the same caliber as LSU that year. They only had a higher SoS than Alabama because of Alabama's lower end schedule(which does matter to me, but you are pretending like it was worlds better when it wasn't).

The only reason Iowa St was bowl eligible is because Oklahoma St lost to them.

You realize that makes 0 sense. How can Ok State have a harder schedule than Bama, the same record, but "way more underperformed Bama". Same record and harder schedule would be outperforming.

 

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

I don't know where you get that 3 number, but I counted 5 teams during the regular season. 6 if not for a loss by 1 in a bowl game.

ALABAMA
FCS Cupcake - Doesn't count
Ole Miss - 2/10
Kent State, North Texas, Tennessee - 5/7
Florida, Vandy, Miss State - 6/6
Auburn - 7/5
Penn State - 9/3
Arkansas - 10/2

That's is only 3 teams with winning records during the regular season.

OKLAHOMA STATE
Kansas State - 10/2
Oklahoma and Baylor - 9/3
Louisiana–Lafayette and Tulsa - 8/4
Texas and Missouri - 7/5
Texas A&M - 6/6
Texas Tech - 5/7
Arizona - 4/8
Kansas - 2/10

That's 7 wins against winning teams, and zero cupcakes.

Colley Matrix is not the only computer formula which said Oklahoma State produced a better SOS. Most of the other computer formulas, said as well, including the Sagarin.

 

[4down20]

You realize that makes 0 sense. How can Ok State have a harder schedule than Bama, the same record, but "way more underperformed Bama". Same record and harder schedule would be outperforming.

Because they lost to Iowa St.

 

[4down20]

ALABAMA
FCS Cupcake - Doesn't count
Ole Miss - 2/10
Kent State, North Texas, Tennessee - 5/7
Florida, Vandy, Miss State - 6/6
Auburn - 7/5
Penn State - 9/3
Arkansas - 10/2

That's is only 3 teams with winning records during the regular season.

OKLAHOMA STATE
Kansas State - 10/2
Oklahoma and Baylor - 9/3
Louisiana–Lafayette and Tulsa - 8/4
Texas and Missouri - 7/5
Texas A&M - 6/6
Texas Tech - 5/7
Arizona - 4/8
Kansas - 2/10

That's 7 wins against winning teams, and zero cupcakes.

Colley Matrix is not the only computer formula which said Oklahoma State produced a better SOS. Most of the other computer formulas, said as well, including the Sagarin.

Yep, guess I did count some 6-6 teams that won their bowl game. But 6 bowl eligible teams vs 8 bowl eligible teams.

And of course, there is that whole other paragraph you didn't respond to on the top of win%s.

 

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

Because they lost to Iowa St.

Why does that matter? Oklahoma State won its conference and played and beat more quality opponents.

 

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

Yep, guess I did count some 6-6 teams that won their bowl game. But 6 bowl eligible teams vs 8 bowl eligible teams.

And of course, there is that whole other paragraph you didn't respond to on the top of win%s.

So now we're using post-bowl results. Come on now. We're talking about BEFORE the bowl games.

 

[4down20]

Why does that matter? Oklahoma State won its conference and played and beat more quality opponents.

Yeah only because Iowa St was a crappy team. If we had lost to Ole Miss or Vandy we would have won our conference too. Instead we lost to the #1 team in the country, so sorry - no go?

You put so much on SoS, yet because we lost to a better team that makes us less deserving?

 

[4down20]

So now we're using post-bowl results. Come on now. We're talking about BEFORE the bowl games.

Funny how you highlight that part of the sentence and ignore the first part of the sentence where I clearly say I made a mistake.

WTF John?

 

[Codaxx]

Because they lost to Iowa St.

You would expect more losses from a harder schedule. That is simple logic. No idea what ISU has to do with it.

 

[4down20]

You would expect more losses from a harder schedule. That is simple logic. No idea what ISU has to do with it.

A team that was only bowl eligible because Oklahoma St lost to them.

So, let me see if I get this right.

If Alabama had lost to Ole Miss instead of LSU, they would have been more deserving because they would have won their conference?

So losing to worse teams = better?

 

[Codaxx]

A team that was only bowl eligible because Oklahoma St lost to them.

So, let me see if I get this right.

If Alabama had lost to Ole Miss instead of LSU, they would have been more deserving because they would have won their conference?

So losing to worse teams = better?

Again you are making 0 sense. OSU's schedule was harder. You said so yourself. Basically OSU played 12 games where their opponents odds to win were 35% (random number to illustrate). Bama played 12 against opponents with 30% odds. Math and logic dictate that if OSU won the same amount of games, they outperformed Bama. Trying to convult the math by focusing on a singular tree, instead of the forrest is just illogical.

 

[4down20]

Again you are making 0 sense. OSU's schedule was harder. You said so yourself. Basically OSU played 12 games where their opponents odds to win were 35% (random number to illustrate). Bama played 12 against opponents with 30% odds. Math and logic dictate that if OSU won the same amount of games, they outperformed Bama. Trying to convult the math by focusing on a singular tree, instead of the forrest is just illogical.

And if both teams were undefeated I'd have given the nod to Oklahoma St. But they didn't both go undefeated, so raw SoS isn't all that matters.

Alabama lost to the #1 team in the country by 3 in over time.

Oklahoma St lost to a team that would have been 5-7 if they hadn't lost to them.

But yet, you want to pretend like these loses are equal because overall SoS? That's the non sense.

 

[TexasExes98]

That whole line is subject to the same results that all teams are judged by, thus subjective at best. As I stated before, we will never know based on the fact they didnt play, but in my world, a championship team clearly doesnt have a 99th ranked defense and lose to a 28 point underdog. I know for a fact that Alabama beat all of its 28 point underdogs that year and was not in danger of losing to any team except for LSU in any game they played, Ok State cannot say that.

Well, Okie jr's defense did have to face 4 of the top 25 scoring offenses in the country that year, 3 of them in the top 10. Bama was facing some of the worst offenses in the country, as the majority of the SEC was still running the 3 yards and a cloud of dust offense. We all know what happens to Saban's defenses when he faces those HUNH offenses; they get raped brutally. I think if Okie jr's defense had to face those shitty offenses, they would have inflated defensive stats, too. We don't know who would have won really.

 

[4down20]

Well, Okie jr's defense did have to face 4 of the top 25 scoring offenses in the country that year, 3 of them in the top 10. Bama was facing some of the worst offenses in the country, as the majority of the SEC was still running the 3 yards and a cloud of dust offense. We all know what happens to Saban's defenses when he faces those HUNH offenses; they get raped brutally. I think if Okie jr's defense had to face those shitty offenses, they would have inflated defensive stats, too. We don't know who would have won really.

Got an example of that HUNH offense that raped Alabama?

 

[TexasExes98]

Got an example of that HUNH offense that raped Alabama?

Aggy in '12 and '13 and OU in the Sugar Bowl. Kinda ironic one was a former Big 12 scrub and the other one is a current Big 12 team.

 

[4down20]

Aggy in '12 and '13 and OU in the Sugar Bowl.

Interesting.

 

[TexasExes98]

Interesting.

Interesting that OU's offense raped the Bama D? Trevor Knight looked like a Heisman candidate after shredding the Bama secondary.