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Super Bowl game notes

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2012 NFL Playoffs
Super Bowl's biggest matchups
Can Baltimore find a way to slow down Colin Kaepernick?
Originally Published: February 1, 2013
By Gary Horton | Scouts Inc.

Colin Kaepernick has had a tremendous postseason. Can he win one more game?

When you look at every game that the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers have played on film this season, it's fairly easy to get a good feel for what both teams like to do. Both the 49ers and Ravens are disciplined, tough-minded teams who have terrific schemes on both sides of the ball and are as fundamentally sound as it gets. What makes both Jim and John Harbaugh great coaches is their ability to create formations to exploit certain matchups.


Let's look at four such situations that could decide Super Bowl XLVII:​


San Francisco pistol offense vs. the Baltimore defense

This is the hottest offense in the NFL right now and nobody has really figured out an effective way to stop it. Not only are the blocking schemes very creative, but the "reads" that defenses key on are not typical of most run games and the 49ers seem to have the ability to make a defense guess wrong on almost every play.

The initial premise of the pistol is for Kaepernick to ride RB Frank Gore into the hole on the inside run and read the defensive end or outside linebacker depending on the scheme. If the edge defender crashes inside, Kaepernick will keep it and run wide; if the defender does a good job of setting the edge, Kaepernick can hand off inside. If things were this simple, it might be easy for the defense, but the 49ers add a lot of extra wrinkles to this scheme.

Terrell Suggs needs to not overpursue in his pass rush.

They use a fullback, Bruce Miller, as a very effective lead blocker. They will also pull an offensive lineman, usually a backside guard, which forces the defender to not only read the handoff or option but also deal with a lead blocker. To further complicate things, the 49ers will give the defense some false reads with offensive lineman pulls. In the past two games they have faced defenses who took opposite approaches to defending the pistol. Green Bay overplayed the inside run by crashing inside while playing turn-and-run man-to-man cover schemes with their backs to the ball -- Kaepernick ate them up, both on the edge keeper in the pistol and inside the tackles on designed QB scrambles. Two weeks ago Atlanta was determined to take away Kaepernick and the QB keeper outside, so the 49ers simply hammered the defense with the inside run.

So, how will the Ravens game plan versus the pistol?

First and foremost, they must be very disciplined in their gap control. It is easy to go into an "attack" mode versus the pistol, but they need to slow down their pursuit (which is not a natural thing) and not overplay the ball. Their two OLBs, Terrell Suggs and Paul Kruger, are natural up-field edge rushers and they may have to tighten those rushes to not give Kaepernick a lot of space to keep the ball and run. Baltimore will likely bring physical safety Bernard Pollard into the box in run support and have him concentrate on stopping the dive while the OLBs focus in on Kaepernick and the wide keeper run play.

The problem for the Ravens is that with Pollard in the box that leaves Ed Reed as a single-high safety and Kaepernick can easily go to his play-action package off the pistol handoff fake. As we already mentioned, San Francisco has so much that evolves off the basic pistol play that it can counter whatever Baltimore does defensively.



Baltimore hurry-up offense versus San Francisco base defense

As much as Joe Flacco loves to run the no-huddle/up-tempo offense, the Ravens have been inconsistent offensively, especially since Jim Caldwell took over as offensive coordinator late in the season. While Flacco has good passing targets on all three levels, the 49ers are not an easy defense to exploit in the no-huddle because they have ILBs Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman, who are three-down players and not a liability in coverage, which means San Francisco doesn't get stuck trying to get their sub packages on the field.

Baltimore will spread the field with three WRs, one TE and one back or two WRs, two TEs and one back in this scheme -- and they can also flex RB Ray Rice to give them an empty backfield look. The matchups they are looking for are a linebacker on Rice, a safety on a tight end and one-on-one corner coverage against Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin. If the 49ers are able to counter the Ravens' spread look with nickel/dime personnel, the matchup that Flacco could look for is the deep shot to Jacoby Jones, who would be lined up versus the 49ers' third- or fourth-best corner -- especially if Rice is in the backfield to set up play-action versus the 49ers safeties who tend to bite on those play fakes.



Two-tight end sets

Both of these offenses are very creative with multiple tight ends and they can play them both on the line or flex one or both and use motion. Both QBs are very comfortable throwing to the tight ends, but the play we could most likely see is a two-man combination route by either offense. The outside receiver runs a vertical route to clear out the coverage and the tight end in the slot will run a wheel route to the outside and most likely draw single coverage versus a safety. That is a matchup that Vernon Davis or Dennis Pitta will win most of the time.



Back-shoulder throw

Both of these QBs have quietly shown improvement in this area. Since both QBs have big arms and an affinity for the deep ball, they will face corners who will be very concerned about getting beaten deep -- so they will be in aggressive turn-and-run coverages, which sets up the back-shoulder throw perfectly. Smith, Boldin, Michael Crabtree and Davis are all guys who can run this well.

Gary Horton
Scouts Inc.
 

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Big weaknesses for 49ers, Ravens
Baltimore pass rush, San Francisco receivers could cost their teams
Originally Published: January 31, 2013
By Nathan Jahnke | Pro Football Focus

Both the Niners and Ravens have weaknesses that could vex them on Sunday.

We have been lucky enough that most recent Super Bowls have come down to great plays late in the game. It's easy to remember the players who made the game-changing plays like Mario Manningham, Clay Matthews and Tracy Porter. What is less memorable are the players who struggle through the Super Bowl, although they shouldn't be.

These are the players who are costing their team a Lombardi trophy, even though they might not be involved in the game-changing or game-clinching play. To make the Super Bowl, you can't have many weaknesses, but they exist. The Ravens and 49ers both are full of star players who have commanded the media spotlight and might make the big play, but they also feature units that could cost their team a ring.



Baltimore Ravens: Pass rush

For years, Terrell Suggs has been the primary pass-rusher for the Ravens' defense, averaging just more than nine sacks per year before the 2012 season. This season, after he returned halfway through from his torn Achilles tendon injury, he was held to just two regular-season sacks. It's important for the pass-rushers to not only get sacks but also record hits and hurries. In 2012, Suggs has recorded a pressure an average of once every 14.5 pass rushes, the second-worst rate for all 3-4 outside linebackers. The only player who has been worse at pass rushing at the position is rookie teammate Courtney Upshaw, who has been astounding in stopping the run but has a pressure on one in every 15.1 of his pass rushes.

Terrell Suggs has not been his dominant self this season.

The Ravens' best pass-rushing option is third-year outside linebacker Paul Kruger, who has recorded at least one sack in seven of his past 11 games and had a pass rushing productivity of 11.9, which led all 3-4 outside linebackers. The problem is that since Suggs returned, Kruger plays primarily when the offense has three or more wide receivers on the field. When the Ravens are facing sets of three or more receivers, Kruger has been in for 95.1 percent of plays, but when they face two or fewer receiver sets he is just in for 56.5 percent of the plays.

Since Colin Kaepernick has taken over at quarterback for the 49ers, San Francisco has run sets of two or fewer receivers on 83.5 percent of its plays. This means Kruger will not be on the field as often as the last few games in which the Ravens faced pass-happy offenses. That will make it much more difficult for him to make an impact.

The interior pass rush from the defensive linemen hasn't been great as of late, either. Although Haloti Ngata has lived up to his reputation in run defense over the late-season stretch, he has managed only nine pressures over his past five games. After having five sacks in a three-game span, Arthur Jones has been basically invisible in the pass game over his past six games. The only other defensive linemen to make a pass-rushing impact this season is Pernell McPhee, who is almost exclusively used in the nickel or dime defense, so he won't probably play much (if at all) in the Super Bowl.

This season, Kaepernick has 9.4 yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions when he is not under pressure, and 6.1 yards per attempt, no touchdowns and two interceptions when he is under pressure. If the Ravens can't hurry Kaepernick, he should have no problem picking the Baltimore secondary apart.



San Francisco 49ers: Receivers

This season, we have seen Michael Crabtree break out and come up with 31.7 percent of the Niners' receiving yards. In the conference championship game, Vernon Davis reminded us all that he can be a force with his best game of the season. Aside from those two players, the 49ers have a big drop-off in talent in the passing game. So far, 8.1 percent of Kaepernick's passes have been dropped, which is the fifth-worst rate in the league.

The Niners may need Moss to step up on Sunday.

At wide receiver, injuries to Manningham and Kyle Williams have forced Randy Moss to take over as the No. 2 receiver. Over the past seven games, he has consistently had between four and six targets for two or three catches. He has eclipsed 50 yards only once this season, and that was thanks to a 55-yard catch against the Giants in Week 6. Although he hasn't been a liability this season and has reportedly been a leader in the locker room, he rarely has been an asset on the field.

Any time the 49ers need to give Crabtree or Moss a rest or use a three-wide-receiver set, Ted Ginn will be on the field. On his 39 pass routes this season, he has three catches for 4 yards. San Francisco hasn't trusted first-round rookie A.J. Jenkins all season, so it's unlikely he will even take an offensive snap in the Super Bowl. He was targeted once this season, and he dropped that pass.

On 57.9 percent of the 49ers' offensive plays, tight end Delanie Walker is on the field. Although he has made a few big catches this season, he hasn't been nearly as consistent as the 49ers would like. He has caught just 52.3 percent of passes thrown his way, which is third-worst for all tight ends. This is mostly because he has a drop rate of 32.35, which is the worst mark in the league regardless of position.

At halfback, Frank Gore has just 0.93 yards per route run on the season, ranking 38th out of 49 qualifying backs. Walker and Gore are two of the five 49ers with at least 100 receiving yards on the season, but they have earned as many yards as they have because of the opportunities they've been given, not because they've been especially effective with their chances.

If the Ravens can limit Crabtree and Davis in the passing game, the 49ers will have to rely on someone else. No matter which formations San Francisco uses, there will be three eligible receivers on the field who all season have yet to show they can make a big impact on the game.



Final word

Once the final whistle blows on the 2012 season, there are sure to be a few plays that will be watched over and over as the plays that determined the winner (and loser) of the Super Bowl. There are bound to be one or two scapegoats for the losing team, but it really will be a number of players who didn't play at a Super Bowl level on a number of plays. Chances are the losing team will have one of these units at least partially to blame, even if it's not on plays that make the highlight reel.
 

deep9er

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Big weaknesses for 49ers, Ravens
Baltimore pass rush, San Francisco receivers could cost their teams
Originally Published: January 31, 2013
By Nathan Jahnke | Pro Football Focus

Both the Niners and Ravens have weaknesses that could vex them on Sunday.

We have been lucky enough that most recent Super Bowls have come down to great plays late in the game. It's easy to remember the players who made the game-changing plays like Mario Manningham, Clay Matthews and Tracy Porter. What is less memorable are the players who struggle through the Super Bowl, although they shouldn't be.

These are the players who are costing their team a Lombardi trophy, even though they might not be involved in the game-changing or game-clinching play. To make the Super Bowl, you can't have many weaknesses, but they exist. The Ravens and 49ers both are full of star players who have commanded the media spotlight and might make the big play, but they also feature units that could cost their team a ring.



Baltimore Ravens: Pass rush

For years, Terrell Suggs has been the primary pass-rusher for the Ravens' defense, averaging just more than nine sacks per year before the 2012 season. This season, after he returned halfway through from his torn Achilles tendon injury, he was held to just two regular-season sacks. It's important for the pass-rushers to not only get sacks but also record hits and hurries. In 2012, Suggs has recorded a pressure an average of once every 14.5 pass rushes, the second-worst rate for all 3-4 outside linebackers. The only player who has been worse at pass rushing at the position is rookie teammate Courtney Upshaw, who has been astounding in stopping the run but has a pressure on one in every 15.1 of his pass rushes.

Terrell Suggs has not been his dominant self this season.

The Ravens' best pass-rushing option is third-year outside linebacker Paul Kruger, who has recorded at least one sack in seven of his past 11 games and had a pass rushing productivity of 11.9, which led all 3-4 outside linebackers. The problem is that since Suggs returned, Kruger plays primarily when the offense has three or more wide receivers on the field. When the Ravens are facing sets of three or more receivers, Kruger has been in for 95.1 percent of plays, but when they face two or fewer receiver sets he is just in for 56.5 percent of the plays.

Since Colin Kaepernick has taken over at quarterback for the 49ers, San Francisco has run sets of two or fewer receivers on 83.5 percent of its plays. This means Kruger will not be on the field as often as the last few games in which the Ravens faced pass-happy offenses. That will make it much more difficult for him to make an impact.

The interior pass rush from the defensive linemen hasn't been great as of late, either. Although Haloti Ngata has lived up to his reputation in run defense over the late-season stretch, he has managed only nine pressures over his past five games. After having five sacks in a three-game span, Arthur Jones has been basically invisible in the pass game over his past six games. The only other defensive linemen to make a pass-rushing impact this season is Pernell McPhee, who is almost exclusively used in the nickel or dime defense, so he won't probably play much (if at all) in the Super Bowl.

This season, Kaepernick has 9.4 yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions when he is not under pressure, and 6.1 yards per attempt, no touchdowns and two interceptions when he is under pressure. If the Ravens can't hurry Kaepernick, he should have no problem picking the Baltimore secondary apart.



San Francisco 49ers: Receivers

This season, we have seen Michael Crabtree break out and come up with 31.7 percent of the Niners' receiving yards. In the conference championship game, Vernon Davis reminded us all that he can be a force with his best game of the season. Aside from those two players, the 49ers have a big drop-off in talent in the passing game. So far, 8.1 percent of Kaepernick's passes have been dropped, which is the fifth-worst rate in the league.

The Niners may need Moss to step up on Sunday.

At wide receiver, injuries to Manningham and Kyle Williams have forced Randy Moss to take over as the No. 2 receiver. Over the past seven games, he has consistently had between four and six targets for two or three catches. He has eclipsed 50 yards only once this season, and that was thanks to a 55-yard catch against the Giants in Week 6. Although he hasn't been a liability this season and has reportedly been a leader in the locker room, he rarely has been an asset on the field.

Any time the 49ers need to give Crabtree or Moss a rest or use a three-wide-receiver set, Ted Ginn will be on the field. On his 39 pass routes this season, he has three catches for 4 yards. San Francisco hasn't trusted first-round rookie A.J. Jenkins all season, so it's unlikely he will even take an offensive snap in the Super Bowl. He was targeted once this season, and he dropped that pass.

On 57.9 percent of the 49ers' offensive plays, tight end Delanie Walker is on the field. Although he has made a few big catches this season, he hasn't been nearly as consistent as the 49ers would like. He has caught just 52.3 percent of passes thrown his way, which is third-worst for all tight ends. This is mostly because he has a drop rate of 32.35, which is the worst mark in the league regardless of position.

At halfback, Frank Gore has just 0.93 yards per route run on the season, ranking 38th out of 49 qualifying backs. Walker and Gore are two of the five 49ers with at least 100 receiving yards on the season, but they have earned as many yards as they have because of the opportunities they've been given, not because they've been especially effective with their chances.

If the Ravens can limit Crabtree and Davis in the passing game, the 49ers will have to rely on someone else. No matter which formations San Francisco uses, there will be three eligible receivers on the field who all season have yet to show they can make a big impact on the game.



Final word

Once the final whistle blows on the 2012 season, there are sure to be a few plays that will be watched over and over as the plays that determined the winner (and loser) of the Super Bowl. There are bound to be one or two scapegoats for the losing team, but it really will be a number of players who didn't play at a Super Bowl level on a number of plays. Chances are the losing team will have one of these units at least partially to blame, even if it's not on plays that make the highlight reel.



well on the bright side, if i had to choose between one of these weaknesses, i'd choose receivers.
 

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2012 NFL Playoffs
Super Bowl's biggest matchups
Can Baltimore find a way to slow down Colin Kaepernick?
Originally Published: February 1, 2013
By Gary Horton | Scouts Inc.

Colin Kaepernick has had a tremendous postseason. Can he win one more game?

When you look at every game that the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers have played on film this season, it's fairly easy to get a good feel for what both teams like to do. Both the 49ers and Ravens are disciplined, tough-minded teams who have terrific schemes on both sides of the ball and are as fundamentally sound as it gets. What makes both Jim and John Harbaugh great coaches is their ability to create formations to exploit certain matchups.


Let's look at four such situations that could decide Super Bowl XLVII:​


San Francisco pistol offense vs. the Baltimore defense

This is the hottest offense in the NFL right now and nobody has really figured out an effective way to stop it. Not only are the blocking schemes very creative, but the "reads" that defenses key on are not typical of most run games and the 49ers seem to have the ability to make a defense guess wrong on almost every play.

The initial premise of the pistol is for Kaepernick to ride RB Frank Gore into the hole on the inside run and read the defensive end or outside linebacker depending on the scheme. If the edge defender crashes inside, Kaepernick will keep it and run wide; if the defender does a good job of setting the edge, Kaepernick can hand off inside. If things were this simple, it might be easy for the defense, but the 49ers add a lot of extra wrinkles to this scheme.

Terrell Suggs needs to not overpursue in his pass rush.

They use a fullback, Bruce Miller, as a very effective lead blocker. They will also pull an offensive lineman, usually a backside guard, which forces the defender to not only read the handoff or option but also deal with a lead blocker. To further complicate things, the 49ers will give the defense some false reads with offensive lineman pulls. In the past two games they have faced defenses who took opposite approaches to defending the pistol. Green Bay overplayed the inside run by crashing inside while playing turn-and-run man-to-man cover schemes with their backs to the ball -- Kaepernick ate them up, both on the edge keeper in the pistol and inside the tackles on designed QB scrambles. Two weeks ago Atlanta was determined to take away Kaepernick and the QB keeper outside, so the 49ers simply hammered the defense with the inside run.

So, how will the Ravens game plan versus the pistol?

First and foremost, they must be very disciplined in their gap control. It is easy to go into an "attack" mode versus the pistol, but they need to slow down their pursuit (which is not a natural thing) and not overplay the ball. Their two OLBs, Terrell Suggs and Paul Kruger, are natural up-field edge rushers and they may have to tighten those rushes to not give Kaepernick a lot of space to keep the ball and run. Baltimore will likely bring physical safety Bernard Pollard into the box in run support and have him concentrate on stopping the dive while the OLBs focus in on Kaepernick and the wide keeper run play.

The problem for the Ravens is that with Pollard in the box that leaves Ed Reed as a single-high safety and Kaepernick can easily go to his play-action package off the pistol handoff fake. As we already mentioned, San Francisco has so much that evolves off the basic pistol play that it can counter whatever Baltimore does defensively.



Baltimore hurry-up offense versus San Francisco base defense

As much as Joe Flacco loves to run the no-huddle/up-tempo offense, the Ravens have been inconsistent offensively, especially since Jim Caldwell took over as offensive coordinator late in the season. While Flacco has good passing targets on all three levels, the 49ers are not an easy defense to exploit in the no-huddle because they have ILBs Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman, who are three-down players and not a liability in coverage, which means San Francisco doesn't get stuck trying to get their sub packages on the field.

Baltimore will spread the field with three WRs, one TE and one back or two WRs, two TEs and one back in this scheme -- and they can also flex RB Ray Rice to give them an empty backfield look. The matchups they are looking for are a linebacker on Rice, a safety on a tight end and one-on-one corner coverage against Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin. If the 49ers are able to counter the Ravens' spread look with nickel/dime personnel, the matchup that Flacco could look for is the deep shot to Jacoby Jones, who would be lined up versus the 49ers' third- or fourth-best corner -- especially if Rice is in the backfield to set up play-action versus the 49ers safeties who tend to bite on those play fakes.



Two-tight end sets

Both of these offenses are very creative with multiple tight ends and they can play them both on the line or flex one or both and use motion. Both QBs are very comfortable throwing to the tight ends, but the play we could most likely see is a two-man combination route by either offense. The outside receiver runs a vertical route to clear out the coverage and the tight end in the slot will run a wheel route to the outside and most likely draw single coverage versus a safety. That is a matchup that Vernon Davis or Dennis Pitta will win most of the time.



Back-shoulder throw

Both of these QBs have quietly shown improvement in this area. Since both QBs have big arms and an affinity for the deep ball, they will face corners who will be very concerned about getting beaten deep -- so they will be in aggressive turn-and-run coverages, which sets up the back-shoulder throw perfectly. Smith, Boldin, Michael Crabtree and Davis are all guys who can run this well.

Gary Horton
Scouts Inc.



what if the 49ers go hurry up?
 

deep9er

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Trivia: How big was the biggest comeback in Superbowl history? Guess in your head first (not specific teams, just number of points).

A: What is the largest Super Bowl comeback in history?

Q: What's the highest scoring SB by the two teams combined?

A: Top 5 highest scoring Super Bowls (Ascending order)

I was surprised by both answers, despite me knowing about the second answer, of course.

1. never would've guessed this correctly.

2. wrong here too, i immediately thought of the Denver game.
 

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Trivia: How big was the biggest comeback in Superbowl history? Guess in your head first (not specific teams, just number of points).

A: What is the largest Super Bowl comeback in history?

Q: What's the highest scoring SB by the two teams combined?

A: Top 5 highest scoring Super Bowls (Ascending order)

I was surprised by both answers, despite me knowing about the second answer, of course.


I guessed 10 points, so not bad. The other has too many scores for me to ponder. Glad we're on the list twice, though!
 

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Well, that explains why he hasn't done much this year... that is a huge thing to have hanging over you all season. Hope he can make it extra special for his dad by having a KR or PR for a TD

:agree:
 
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