QB options for next year

[seattlefan75]

Aaron Rodgers was taken at #24 overall…

That was 19 years ago the list of QB busts that slid is enormous

 

[seattlefan75]

Yeah, I am not sure about that. We have plenty of QBs not taken in the first few picks or even the 1st round who end up being successful NFL starters. And I think the Titans are fairly happy with what they have in Levis, but they have opportunity to tell us about that with their draft behavior at #7 and #38.

There could be 6 QBs taken in round 1, which has not happened since 1983. But if it's only 4 or 5, I don't think that should sound alarms on the 6th guy. The 6th QB taken in the 1983 draft? Dan Marino, 27th overall.

Successful NFL starters is subjective Teddy Bridgewater and Geno Smith both drafted at the end of the 1st/Early 2nd you could say are successful starters but I am sure the teams that drafted them would take that pick back to use on someone else if they could.

 

[Anointed One]

That was 19 years ago the list of QB busts that slid is enormous

OK...

Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts then...

Top 10 QB's drafted don't really have a stellar track record over the last 10 years or so... DraftHistory.com

 

[Anointed One]

Successful NFL starters is subjective Teddy Bridgewater and Geno Smith both drafted at the end of the 1st/Early 2nd you could say are successful starters but I am sure the teams that drafted them would take that pick back to use on someone else if they could.

You know who was drafted #3 overall that year? Black Bortles... I'm sure teams would rather have Bridgewater over their Blake Bortle pick that year as well...

 

[seattlefan75]

OK...

Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts then...

Top 10 QB's drafted don't really have a stellar track record over the last 10 years or so... DraftHistory.com

looking over the last 10 years I would say about half the QBs taken in the top 10 were All pro, pro bowl, or quality players. QBs taken outside the top 10 were about 20 maybe 30% success.

 

[seattlefan75]

You know who was drafted #3 overall that year? Black Bortles... I'm sure teams would rather have Bridgewater over their Blake Bortle pick that year as well...

The argument here was that I said QBs that slide into the later rounds tend to be busts and I wouldn't use my teams 1st round pick on them. I don't remember saying that QBs drafted top 10 are bulletproof.

 

[flyerhawk]

Aaron Rodgers was taken at #24 overall…

Not that I necessarily agree with SeattleFan but Aaron Rodgers was the 2nd QB selected.

If we look back at the drafts, here is a list of the 6th QBs selected in each draft

Jake Haener
Sam Howell
Kyle Trask
Jacob Eason
Ryan Finley
Mason Rudolph
C.J. Beathard
Cody Kessler
Brett Hundley
Logan Thomas
Tyler Wilson
Russell Wilson
Colin Kaepernick
John Skelton
Rhett Bomar
John David Booty
Trent Edwards
Charlie Whitehurst
David Greene
Luke McCown
Chris Simms
Rohan Davey
Sage Rosenfels
Spergon Wynn
Shaun King

Not a great list. But you do have Russ.

It doesn't get a whole lot better if you look at the 6th or later pick..

Jake Haener
Stetson Bennett
Aidan O'Connell
Clayton Tune
Dorian Thompson-Robinson
Sean Clifford
Jaren Hall
Tanner McKee
Max Duggan
Sam Howell
Chris Oladokun
Skylar Thompson
Brock Purdy
Kyle Trask
Kellen Mond
Davis Mills
Ian Book
Sam Ehlinger
Jacob Eason
James Morgan
Jake Fromm
Jake Luton
Cole McDonald
Ben DiNucci
Tommy Stevens
Nate Stanley
Ryan Finley
Jarrett Stidham
Easton Stick
Clayton Thorson
Gardner Minshew
Trace McSorley
Mason Rudolph
Kyle Lauletta
Mike White
Luke Falk
Tanner Lee
Danny Etling
Alex McGough
Logan Woodside
C.J. Beathard
Joshua Dobbs
Nathan Peterman
Brad Kaaya
Chad Kelly
Cody Kessler
Connor Cook
Dak Prescott
Cardale Jones
Kevin Hogan
Nate Sudfeld
Jake Rudock
Brandon Allen
Jeff Driskel
Brandon Doughty
Brett Hundley
Trevor Siemian
Logan Thomas
Tom Savage
Aaron Murray
A.J. McCarron
Zach Mettenberger
David Fales
Keith Wenning
Tajh Boyd
Garrett Gilbert
Tyler Wilson
Landry Jones
Brad Sorensen
Zac Dysert
B.J. Daniels
Sean Renfree
Russell Wilson
Nick Foles
Kirk Cousins
Ryan Lindley
B.J. Coleman
Chandler Harnish
Colin Kaepernick
Ryan Mallett
Ricky Stanzi
T.J. Yates
Nathan Enderle
Tyrod Taylor
Greg McElroy
John Skelton
Jonathan Crompton
Rusty Smith
Dan LeFevour
Joe Webb
Tony Pike
Levi Brown
Sean Canfield
Zac Robinson
Rhett Bomar
Nate Davis
Tom Brandstater
Mike Teel
Keith Null
Curtis Painter
John David Booty
Dennis Dixon
Josh Johnson
Erik Ainge
Colt Brennan
Andre' Woodson
Matt Flynn
Alex Brink
Trent Edwards
Isaiah Stanback
Jeff Rowe
Troy Smith
Jordan Palmer
Tyler Thigpen
Charlie Whitehurst
Brodie Croyle
Ingle Martin
Omar Jacobs
Reggie McNeal
Bruce Gradkowski
D.J. Shockley
David Greene
Kyle Orton
Stefan Lefors
Dan Orlovsky
Adrian McPherson
Derek Anderson
James Kilian
Matt Cassel
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Luke McCown
Craig Krenzel
Andy Hall
Josh Harris
Jim Sorgi
Jeff Smoker
John Navarre
Cody Pickett
Casey Bramlet
Matt Mauck
B.J. Symons
Bradlee Van Pelt
Chris Simms
Seneca Wallace
Brian St. Pierre
Drew Henson
Brooks Bollinger
Kliff Kingsbury
Gibran Hamdan
Ken Dorsey
Rohan Davey
Randy Fasani
Kurt Kittner
Brandon Doman
Craig Nall
J.T. O'Sullivan
Steve Bellisari
Seth Burford
Jeff Kelly
Ronald Curry
Wes Pate
Sage Rosenfels
Jesse Palmer
Mike McMahon
A.J. Feeley
Josh Booty
Josh Heupel
Spergon Wynn
Tom Brady
Todd Husak
JaJuan Seider
Tim Rattay
Jarious Jackson
Joe Hamilton
Shaun King
Brock Huard
Joe Germaine
Aaron Brooks
Kevin Daft
Michael Bishop
Chris Greisen
Scott Covington

 

[flyerhawk]

One other point, the earliest that the 6th QB drafted has been drafted is the 2nd round and that only happened once. Shaun King.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

and you have to think whatever QB gets passed from 12-15 he probably isn't that good. every year there is a QB that gets passed last year it was Will Levis and it seems from the sample size from him for good reason

So......unless the team has really shit the bed and has a very early pick (apparently pick 5 is too late) don't draft a QB?

 

[seattlefan75]

So......unless the team has really shit the bed and has a very early pick (apparently pick 5 is too late) don't draft a QB?

you misinterpreted everything I have said none of that

 

[HaroldSeattle]

you misinterpreted everything I have said none of that

I trying to clarify what you mean actually ( or your point). You said QBs that slide are likely not good and you mentioned Levis as a example. So I assume that means a QB that slides to pick 16 is likely not good and the Seahawks should pass. Is that right?

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I trying to clarify what you mean actually ( or your point). You said QBs that slide are likely not good and you mentioned Levis as a example. So I assume that means a QB that slides to pick 16 is likely not good and the Seahawks should pass. Is that right?

Well,

I think all he's pointing out is the more QBs that come off the board, obviously the chances to succeed by snagging a one is decreased. Now that doesn't mean you can't still take a QB at #16 but if 5 other QBs are off the board, history has shown that your odds aren't too great.

Now normally at 16 that's very acceptable for a QB, obviously many greats have gone around there or even later that are the best ever (like Rodgers, Brees, Montana, etc.).

I think where it gets difficult with this draft is how many teams need QBs, but it's also a very deep QB class to some extent although I think some guys are profiting from that due to hype, and others aren't (McCarthy profiting, Nix a little profit, Penix not really profiting). I believe this would be the first draft in NFL history where a quarterback goes picks 1 through 3. And then you have the Vikings who seem like they're going to try and move to #5 (with that 1st round pick move), then Denver may pull the trigger if Payton like what's leftover (Nix likely)... so yah...

I don't think it's really, "Because we'd be taking the 6th QB that means we shouldn't" - I think it's just an unfortunate case of every team needing a QB at the moment and we're probably reaching at that point when we already have playable guys on the roster and holes at much bigger positions (IOL/IDL). I know you don't want to draft for needs, but if we're drafting the 6th best QB at 16 (prob. Penix) is that really the best approach either given what history shows? That'd seem like reaching which is kind of the same as drafting for needs. It just so happens our 'needs' are pretty well stacked this draft (DL/OL).

 

[flyerhawk]

Well,

I think all he's pointing out is the more QBs that come off the board, obviously the chances to succeed by snagging a one is decreased. Now that doesn't mean you can't still take a QB at #16 but if 5 other QBs are off the board, history has shown that your odds aren't too great.

Now normally at 16 that's very acceptable for a QB, obviously many greats have gone around there or even later that are the best ever (like Rodgers, Brees, Montana, etc.).

I think where it gets difficult with this draft is how many teams need QBs, but it's also a very deep QB class to some extent although I think some guys are profiting from that due to hype, and others aren't (McCarthy profiting, Nix a little profit, Penix not really profiting). I believe this would be the first draft in NFL history where a quarterback goes picks 1 through 3. And then you have the Vikings who seem like they're going to try and move to #5 (with that 1st round pick move), then Denver may pull the trigger if Payton like what's leftover (Nix likely)... so yah...

I don't think it's really, "Because we'd be taking the 6th QB that means we shouldn't" - I think it's just an unfortunate case of every team needing a QB at the moment and we're probably reaching at that point when we already have playable guys on the roster and holes at much bigger positions (IOL/IDL). I know you don't want to draft for needs, but if we're drafting the 6th best QB at 16 (prob. Penix) is that really the best approach either given what history shows? That'd seem like reaching which is kind of the same as drafting for needs. It just so happens our 'needs' are pretty well stacked this draft (DL/OL).

QBs were taken 1,2,3 in 2021(Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lantz) and in 1999(Couch, McNabb, Akili Smith)

There have only been 3 times that the 5th QB selected was in the 1st round. Cade McNown, Lamar Jackson, and Mac Jones.

That doesn't mean that taking the 5th QB in the 1st round in this draft is a bad idea, per se. But history is not on your side.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Well,

I think all he's pointing out is the more QBs that come off the board, obviously the chances to succeed by snagging a one is decreased. Now that doesn't mean you can't still take a QB at #16 but if 5 other QBs are off the board, history has shown that your odds aren't too great.

Now normally at 16 that's very acceptable for a QB, obviously many greats have gone around there or even later that are the best ever (like Rodgers, Brees, Montana, etc.).

I think where it gets difficult with this draft is how many teams need QBs, but it's also a very deep QB class to some extent although I think some guys are profiting from that due to hype, and others aren't (McCarthy profiting, Nix a little profit, Penix not really profiting). I believe this would be the first draft in NFL history where a quarterback goes picks 1 through 3. And then you have the Vikings who seem like they're going to try and move to #5 (with that 1st round pick move), then Denver may pull the trigger if Payton like what's leftover (Nix likely)... so yah...

I don't think it's really, "Because we'd be taking the 6th QB that means we shouldn't" - I think it's just an unfortunate case of every team needing a QB at the moment and we're probably reaching at that point when we already have playable guys on the roster and holes at much bigger positions (IOL/IDL). I know you don't want to draft for needs, but if we're drafting the 6th best QB at 16 (prob. Penix) is that really the best approach either given what history shows? That'd seem like reaching which is kind of the same as drafting for needs. It just so happens our 'needs' are pretty well stacked this draft (DL/OL).

It's looking like the Seahawks will not draft a QB this draft and that had me looking ahead at 2025 and 2026. I was surprised to see only 13 players under contract for 2026, but checking other rosters this is the norm. 2025 Seahawks have negative cap space and only 33 players under contract ( will go up after the draft naturally). So they are going to repeat what they did this season, cut some big contracts (Lockett, Geno maybe Jones) redo a couple (Metcalf, Williams) or trade/cut them and then they have some cap space to address free agency in the similar fashion as this season minus some key weapons on offense ( Walker will be in the final year of his contract also).
I'm starting to think Howell will be the Seahawks QB of the future or at least for a brief time, unless they extend Geno ( geez *!!#@***). The whole "you got to build the roster before drafting your franchise QB" is looking like a fallacy because rosters are only build for a couple season it appears and that's not enough time to build your trenches, build your defense and get some weapons for your QB at the same time.
I still believe investing in rookie QBs when the opportunity is there is the best approach. Suppose instead of signing Geno the Seahawks drafted Levis, even if Levis doesn't work out the cap savings would big, Geno will have gotten 61.9 for two years if cut next season while Levis would have made 8.8 for the same time period. Did it pay to go the Geno route or would of extra 53 million to spend have been a better route? That's with Levis not working out, if he works out it becomes a no brainer.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

QBs were taken 1,2,3 in 2021(Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lantz) and in 1999(Couch, McNabb, Akili Smith)

There have only been 3 times that the 5th QB selected was in the 1st round. Cade McNown, Lamar Jackson, and Mac Jones.

That doesn't mean that taking the 5th QB in the 1st round in this draft is a bad idea, per se. But history is not on your side.

Ah thanks for the reference flyer. Maybe the Cards will trade to the Vikings (doubtfully as Harrison Jr. will be there - would be a dream scenario for Harbaugh go figure) and then we'll have the first time 1, 2, 3, 4? I can't imagine that's happened lol.

And that's what I was replying to Harold on... your chances of getting a successful QB 6th overall isn't impossible and if you like the guy there, snag him... it's just lower odds to succeed - although a lot of that depends on the team they're going to as well.

I think the bigger thing this year is all the teams that need QBs this year, there's just less available and now the Vikings have better ammo, so you'd be looking at #5 most likely. Normally #16 with maybe a move up 5-6 slots would get you maybe the 2nd or 3rd best guy on the board. Sadly teams 1-3 need QB, another team at 12 needs a QB, another team at 11 (who now looks like they'll move up, why the hell else would they trade for another 1st well before the draft) wants a QB.

2025 QB class doesn't seem as strong (but a lot can change in a year) but if we had let's say the 16th overall next year... maybe outside of the Cards/Giants?, the QB market will be a little down compared to this year. And then Murray/Jones are freed up so other teams may just sign those guys for cheaper contracts to see what they can do... Not to mention the Cards may still not be able to move on from Murray. Releasing him would kind of be like the RW impact.. their best option is trading him post 6/1 but that's not realistic (teams want their QB locked in before June).

 

[flyerhawk]

It's looking like the Seahawks will not draft a QB this draft and that had me looking ahead at 2025 and 2026. I was surprised to see only 13 players under contract for 2026, but checking other rosters this is the norm. 2025 Seahawks have negative cap space and only 33 players under contract ( will go up after the draft naturally). So they are going to repeat what they did this season, cut some big contracts (Lockett, Geno maybe Jones) redo a couple (Metcalf, Williams) or trade/cut them and then they have some cap space to address free agency in the similar fashion as this season minus some key weapons on offense ( Walker will be in the final year of his contract also).
I'm starting to think Howell will be the Seahawks QB of the future or at least for a brief time, unless they extend Geno ( geez *!!#@***). The whole "you got to build the roster before drafting your franchise QB" is looking like a fallacy because rosters are only build for a couple season it appears and that's not enough time to build your trenches, build your defense and get some weapons for your QB at the same time.
I still believe investing in rookie QBs when the opportunity is there is the best approach. Suppose instead of signing Geno the Seahawks drafted Levis, even if Levis doesn't work out the cap savings would big, Geno will have gotten 61.9 for two years if cut next season while Levis would have made 8.8 for the same time period. Did it pay to go the Geno route or would of extra 53 million to spend have been a better route? That's with Levis not working out, if he works out it becomes a no brainer.

Certainly the best plan to success is to draft a good QB. That gives you 4 or 5 years of low cost QB play.

But drafting a QB just to draft a QB isn't a very sound approach. Let's say we did draft Levis instead of JSN last year. And let's say he is nothing more than a journeyman QB in his career. You are giving him OJT for his career while ensuring that the team will be no better than middle of the road. If he struggles you will likely be spending ANOTHER draft pick on QB before his contract expires.

You draft players that you think will be good. Closing your eyes and hoping the best player left at a specific position is usually a bad plan. Doesn't matter if you are talking edge rusher or QB or safety.

Talent wins Super Bowls.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

It's looking like the Seahawks will not draft a QB this draft and that had me looking ahead at 2025 and 2026. I was surprised to see only 13 players under contract for 2026, but checking other rosters this is the norm. 2025 Seahawks have negative cap space and only 33 players under contract ( will go up after the draft naturally). So they are going to repeat what they did this season, cut some big contracts (Lockett, Geno maybe Jones) redo a couple (Metcalf, Williams) or trade/cut them and then they have some cap space to address free agency in the similar fashion as this season minus some key weapons on offense ( Walker will be in the final year of his contract also).
I'm starting to think Howell will be the Seahawks QB of the future or at least for a brief time, unless they extend Geno ( geez *!!#@***). The whole "you got to build the roster before drafting your franchise QB" is looking like a fallacy because rosters are only build for a couple season it appears and that's not enough time to build your trenches, build your defense and get some weapons for your QB at the same time.
I still believe investing in rookie QBs when the opportunity is there is the best approach. Suppose instead of signing Geno the Seahawks drafted Levis, even if Levis doesn't work out the cap savings would big, Geno will have gotten 61.9 for two years if cut next season while Levis would have made 8.8 for the same time period. Did it pay to go the Geno route or would of extra 53 million to spend have been a better route? That's with Levis not working out, if he works out it becomes a no brainer.

Yah I get what you're saying... my point to my post and response to flyer is, we're just kind of stuck in weird position this year because so many teams need quarterbacks and are drafting ahead of us... It's a QB driven league to your point... it's the best position to gamble on... I just don't think what's left at 16 is that great of an option. I'd assume that means Penix at 16, cause I think someone will reach on Nix and McCarthy seems to have shot up to potentially be the #5 overall - wouldn't be surprised if Harbaugh is hyping the fuck out of him because... SHOCKER, the Chargers have the #5 overall lol.

So let me ask you point blank, do you want Penix at 16 (just saying it's the most likely scenario)? Let him sit a year to develop footwork field vision (namely stop throwing outside the numbers 24/7), and get all healed up? And then cut Geno 2025 and keep Howell as your cheap backup?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Certainly the best plan to success is to draft a good QB. That gives you 4 or 5 years of low cost QB play.

But drafting a QB just to draft a QB isn't a very sound approach. Let's say we did draft Levis instead of JSN last year. And let's say he is nothing more than a journeyman QB in his career. You are giving him OJT for his career while ensuring that the team will be no better than middle of the road. If he struggles you will likely be spending ANOTHER draft pick on QB before his contract expires.

You draft players that you think will be good. Closing your eyes and hoping the best player left at a specific position is usually a bad plan. Doesn't matter if you are talking edge rusher or QB or safety.

Talent wins Super Bowls.

This draft is loaded with exciting WRs, really loaded so you may be able to actual upgrade on OJT. Hard to say if the Seahawks resign OJT to a second contract even. So I'd take that 53 million to spend.
It's not "draft a QB just to draft a QB" It's draft a QB that has some potential and save 53 million over the aging, not great vet QB they presently have.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

do you want Penix at 16 (just saying it's the most likely scenario)? Let him sit a year to develop footwork field vision (namely stop throwing outside the numbers 24/7), and get all healed up? And then cut Geno 2025 and keep Howell as your cheap backup?

Yes that's exactly what I would want. Don't think that's going to happen though.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Talent wins Super Bowls.

Yes indeed and with 53 million extra you have a shot at the talent.