QB options for next year

[Sharkonabicycle]

Except this was just pick swaps. That was a straight up 3rd.

Right, it annoys me a lot of Hawks fans (not saying Harold is) are screaming, "OMG WE GAVE UP A THIRD OMFOMFOMFFFF" No, we gave up about the equivalent of a 5th rounder when you do all the value swaps (mid 3rd for EARLY 4th) and then 5th/6th swaps which is whatever almost.

So, if Seattle had traded down their 3rd to Washington for their early 4th rounder, they basically prob. would've gotten an extra 5th from Washington.

EDIT: Given Howell is CHEAP and younger than Penix/Nix/Milton and basically the same age as Rattler... it's a decent deal. And the Washington Football Team sucks ass. Worst defense (so they were playing behind non-stop, course ours wasn't much better but that SHOULD improve with Mac) and basically suck at everything else.

 

[flyerhawk]

Right, it annoys me a lot of Hawks fans (not saying Harold is) are screaming, "OMG WE GAVE UP A THIRD OMFOMFOMFFFF" No, we gave up about the equivalent of a 5th rounder when you do all the value swaps (mid 3rd for EARLY 4th) and then 5th/6th swaps which is whatever almost.

So, if Seattle had traded down their 3rd to Washington for their early 4th rounder, they basically prob. would've gotten an extra 5th from Washington.

Right. And ultimately when you start talking about day 3 picks it is more about making the right picks

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Oh maybe the draft value charts do say a late 3rd... Hmm... alright, maybe I was misinformed. Still, if Schneider doesn't like anyone in the QB class that would be in the 3rd, and likes Howell - I'm fine with that. Schneider has a pretty good track record. Yah he whiffed on Flynn (if that was his decision - I don't think it was because he wanted Wilson the same year and had to convince Pete for it) but otherwise it's been solid. Howell has some mechanics to fix, but that's okay, he's still 23.5... younger or the same age than half this draft class lol.

Also, having that extra early 4th and only paying $1M per year for a 2 year contract is important. We don't have to go QB searching next year for another backup (had we done Lock on 1 year) assuming we keep Geno or draft someone else, or start Howell (and then Howell is on a 1 year prove it deal for cheap AF as your starting QB)... and with $30M cap room excluding Fant x2, Brown, Jenkins, Harris, not to mention the rookies ($8M - just got a little less now, prob. $7M) and some injury/PS reserve... there's not a lot left. That $1M vs. $5M may have been the reason we were able to make Dodson work.

Would I rather have Dodson, Howell, and an early 4th over a mid 3rd (the 5th/6th swap is almost whatever)? HELL YES.

 

[JMR]

If they are able to get the QB they want, are they really so invested in Howell that they need to keep him? A couple of pick swaps and no cap hit doesn't sound terrible.

I suppose not, but it would just come off as a very odd move to do that (trade up, if that's what you're talking about, to draft someone like McCarthy). Salk is talking about it right now live on 710.... that this moves makes it seem like the team doesn't believe they can move up and get the guy they want. Now of course that is assuming they need to trade up to do that, but that's been part of the discussion. If they are stunned to see their dream QB still there at 16, then I would suspect they have no problem pulling the trigger.

Seems to me that Howell is a solid safety move so that A) other teams won't see them as desperate if they look to make a deal and B) if they aren't able to make a deal they will have a pretty good backup

Yeah, we essentially plugged a hole or filled a roster requirement with this move. You must have a backup QB, and now we do. And it didn't cost us all that much. But we also now have a little less draft capital than we did before.

It's also possible that they will go after some guy later in the draft that will need time before he could be ready

Certainly. If you see great value in a QB that's unexpectedly still sitting there (any round really) then go for it. In a year from now, you'll probably have that guy and Howell as your 2 QBs.

 

[flyerhawk]

I suppose not, but it would just come off as a very odd move to do that (trade up, if that's what you're talking about, to draft someone like McCarthy). Salk is talking about it right now live on 710.... that this moves makes it seem like the team doesn't believe they can move up and get the guy they want. Now of course that is assuming they need to trade up to do that, but that's been part of the discussion. If they are stunned to see their dream QB still there at 16, then I would suspect they have no problem pulling the trigger.

For arguments sake, let's say they want McCarthy. To be confident that they will actually get him they would need to trade with Arizona at 4 which would be prohibitive. But that's if we do a pre draft trade.

If the Vikings trade up to 4 then we are SOL. But if they don't and all we need to do is move up to somewhere like 9 that is a lot more feasible. But you can't bank on that happening.

They now have some flexibility in case they can't get their guy.

FTR, the same applies if it is a Penix although the cost won't be as steep probably. If they like Penix they can maybe sit tight at 16 and get him but if someone jumps us we aren't SOL.

I honestly think this was a pretty smart move.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I suppose not, but it would just come off as a very odd move to do that (trade up, if that's what you're talking about, to draft someone like McCarthy). Salk is talking about it right now live on 710.... that this moves makes it seem like the team doesn't believe they can move up and get the guy they want. Now of course that is assuming they need to trade up to do that, but that's been part of the discussion. If they are stunned to see their dream QB still there at 16, then I would suspect they have no problem pulling the trigger.

I would agree here. If there is someone at 16 that they LOVE at QB, sure, take it (which is Nix or McCarthy basically and at 16 with those guys, meh)... and then you got Geno for 1 year, let him go to save a bunch, and you got Howell as a backup who has played a full season and did not great but also played on a team with hardly any talent and the worst defense in the NFL.

That said, there's history that Schneider liked Howell... chips just never landed that way... they liked Lock too and at the time we had Geno/Lock, so Howell really never fell into the plan. So if that's the case, I'd assume they are fine with Geno/Howell at the moment.

Yeah, we essentially plugged a hole or filled a roster requirement with this move. You must have a backup QB, and now we do. And it didn't cost us all that much. But we also now have a little less draft capital than we did before.

We plugged a hole and yes we have a little less draft capital. That said, we have MORE cap room then if we signed Lock and kept the 3rd. And Lock is 4 years older... sure he could pull a Geno Smith at some point, but I'm not counting on that... That extra $4M and prob. another $500K for the pick swaps) is prob. the reason we were able to go after Dodson... Yah overthecap/spotrac shows $30M, but that's not including 6 free agents we just acquired. Sure you're going to cut some guys, but some of those contracts (Fant x2, Jenkins) aren't CHEAP either... and I'm sure Dodson wont be cheap.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

For arguments sake, let's say they want McCarthy. To be confident that they will actually get him they would need to trade with Arizona at 4 which would be prohibitive. But that's if we do a pre draft trade.

If the Vikings trade up to 4 then we are SOL. But if they don't and all we need to do is move up to somewhere like 9 that is a lot more feasible. But you can't bank on that happening.

They now have some flexibility in case they can't get their guy.

FTR, the same applies if it is a Penix although the cost won't be as steep probably. If they like Penix they can maybe sit tight at 16 and get him but if someone jumps us we aren't SOL.

I honestly think this was a pretty smart move.

I mean in John I trust at QB, but Penix at 16, bleh. I don't think Seattle would've made the move for Howell if they planned on a QB. And cutting Geno right now is basically impossible. A post 6/1 cut would save $6M to only get $20M of dead cap next year? Forget it... if I had to guess Seattle will draft a guard (literal hole there) at 16, or trade down and take Nubin mid-late first because that's the only safety that fits Macs scheme this draft. This OL is VERY deep at guard, so I'm not in any rush to panic pull the trigger on 16 at guard, either... it's very thin at safety and we still have a hole there unless they move CBs over. I think it'll be a IOL, ILB, DL, S draft.

Schneider said earlier this year: "Geno is our starter for now" which raised eyebrows. That was later clarified to Geno IS the starter and most recently (after the Howell trade): "Geno is our starter. Howell will back him up." So why the F would you trade up into the 1st or take a guy at 16 and bench him? Not only do we NOT have the cap to do that... but that would be stupid. I don't think Schneider likes anyone in this draft, point blank.

Now the above is interesting because Mike a week ago said they weren't committing to Geno. But that's before FA, etc. If John is now saying Geno IS the starter, I assume that's resolved. If it's not and Mike is still saying, "No" but John is saying "Yes" then oh boy... we got drama.

New regimes mean new QBs (usually) - but Seattle didn't really come off a trash season and EASILY had the talent to make the playoffs. Mike is coming into a little bit of a different scenario here. He's not coming into a train wreck team... he's coming into a team with a LOT of talent (Metcalf, Lockett, top 25 JSN, top 25 Fant, top 8 Cross, two 2nd round RBs - one of which was snubbed ROY, Williams/Jones, Mafe/Hall/Nwosu - great EDGE, top 5 DB, good safety in Love, another snubbed ROY in Woolen)...

I think the messaging was very clear during the hiring process. "We are not asking you to TRASH this team and take a top 10 QB... we're asking you to work with what we have, build up and fix this TRASH defensive scheme that couldn't work with tons of 1st round picks, a future HOFer, and money spent on it.... and re-vamp the culture."

 

[flyerhawk]

Just to be clear, I have no idea if they are even thinking QB in this draft. I just don't think the Howell trade changes whether they do or don't go for a. QB

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Just to be clear, I have no idea if they are even thinking QB in this draft. I just don't think the Howell trade changes whether they do or don't go for a. QB

No idea either... I'm just speculating that they aren't given the fact Schneider said Geno is the starter and Howell is the backup. Course that could be smokescreens - who knows.

 

[flyerhawk]

No idea either... I'm just speculating that they aren't given the fact Schneider said Geno is the starter and Howell is the backup. Course that could be smokescreens - who knows.

I don't trust anything JS says publicly during draft season.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Second thoughts on my "Maybe I was wrong on the draft capital post on #1,043"

When you look at the draft value charts... No team is going to give Seattle a late 3rd and an early 4th for a mid 3rd lol.... I think those draft value charts are a little out-dated at this point lol.

 

[flyerhawk]

Second thoughts on my "Maybe I was wrong on the draft capital post on #1,043"

When you look at the draft value charts... No team is going to give Seattle a late 3rd and an early 4th for a mid 3rd lol.... I think those draft value charts are a little out-dated at this point lol.

Those charts are just guides and each team has their own that likely changes from year to year.

Look at the Seahawks 3rd and 4th round picks and you don't really see much difference in outcomes. So I don't really care that much about dropping 25 slots.

I like that they preserved cap space to keep filling the roster. 5 million for Lock is 4 million that can't be spent on a off ball backer

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Those charts are just guides and each team has their own that likely changes from year to year.

Look at the Seahawks 3rd and 4th round picks and you don't really see much difference in outcomes. So I don't really care that much about dropping 25 slots.

I like that they preserved cap space to keep filling the roster. 5 million for Lock is 4 million that can't be spent on a off ball backer

Like Dodson? - I want those contract details released dammit!

 

[JMR]

For arguments sake, let's say they want McCarthy. To be confident that they will actually get him they would need to trade with Arizona at 4 which would be prohibitive. But that's if we do a pre draft trade.

If the Vikings trade up to 4 then we are SOL. But if they don't and all we need to do is move up to somewhere like 9 that is a lot more feasible. But you can't bank on that happening.

They now have some flexibility in case they can't get their guy.

FTR, the same applies if it is a Penix although the cost won't be as steep probably. If they like Penix they can maybe sit tight at 16 and get him but if someone jumps us we aren't SOL.

Yep, I fully acknowledge the scenarios where we still make a big move for a QB, but I think it's less likely after the Howell trade. We have a little less draft capital and a better fallback position if it doesn't happen. Alreadying having Howell in my opinion will make it easier to rationalize stopping short of pulling the trigger on a big, risky move. Agree on the flexibility, which I had pointed out as well.

I heard Minn just acquired another 1st round pick, so they now have the ammo to move up for their QB.

I honestly think this was a pretty smart move.

As I keep thinking about it, I like it more. If they went into the draft with just Geno, they would be in a position where they MUST come out of it with at least 1 more. Better not to be shoehorned like that. I think there is a good chance they'll draft a QB still, but they don't have to. There's also the cap advantage of Howell vs Lock, age, and 2 years of control vs 1. It only cost about the equivalent value of a 7th round pick to make the trade (at least that's what they said on 710), and I say that is well worth it even if all Howell does for us is be the back for 2 years and walks. For as little as what the team has at stake on this trade, it looks like a very smart move.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Yep, I fully acknowledge the scenarios where we still make a big move for a QB, but I think it's less likely after the Howell trade. We have a little less draft capital and a better fallback position if it doesn't happen. Alreadying having Howell in my opinion will make it easier to rationalize stopping short of pulling the trigger on a big, risky move. Agree on the flexibility, which I had pointed out as well.

I heard Minn just acquired another 1st round pick, so they now have the ammo to move up for their QB.


As I keep thinking about it, I like it more. If they went into the draft with just Geno, they would be in a position where they MUST come out of it with at least 1 more. Better not to be shoehorned like that. I think there is a good chance they'll draft a QB still, but they don't have to. There's also the cap advantage of Howell vs Lock, age, and 2 years of control vs 1. It only cost about the equivalent value of a 7th round pick to make the trade (at least that's what they said on 710), and I say that is well worth it even if all Howell does for us is be the back for 2 years and walks. For as little as what the team has at stake on this trade, it looks like a very smart move.

If we resigned Lock, we in all likelihood wouldn't have enough for Dodson.

Happy to eat crow on this, but I think there is ZERO chance Seattle drafts a QB this year. I know Harold hates that thought....

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

From the looks of it with us having the 16th pick whatever QB that is still available by that pick is more than likely someone we shouldn't pick. The first 3 teams on the board will probably pick a QB and there are like 5 other teams ahead of us that would like to draft a QB as well. Sam Howell being on the market he is most likely better then whatever will be there at 16 and will be roughly the same age.

For people that don't like this move remember this man chopped us up when we went to go play the Commanders.

Yeah he did play well against us, he definitely has something, maybe over time with the right coaching and system he can be good, but time will tell ..

 

[JMR]

Happy to eat crow on this, but I think there is ZERO chance Seattle drafts a QB this year. I know Harold hates that thought....

It's not 100%, but it's definitely way more than 0 chance. It's a deep crop of QBs, so something wild might happen like Bo Nix is there in the 4th round that we just shouldn't pass up. And I know someone is gonna climb on me for that example (it's just an example), but I would bet anything that some QB is going to last a LOT longer in this draft than we think right now. On top of that, you know we aren't going into camp with just 2 QBs. We'll pick up a couple more somehow. They could be UDFAs, but I can definitely see a very late round pick on a project type QB. In a year from now, it's entirely likely that Geno Smith won't be on this team.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

It's not 100%, but it's definitely way more than 0 chance. It's a deep crop of QBs, so something wild might happen like Bo Nix is there in the 4th round that we just shouldn't pass up. And I know someone is gonna climb on me for that example (it's just an example), but I would bet anything that some QB is going to last a LOT longer in this draft than we think right now. On top of that, you know we aren't going into camp with just 2 QBs. We'll pick up a couple more somehow. They could be UDFAs, but I can definitely see a very late round pick on a project type QB. In a year from now, it's entirely likely that Geno Smith won't be on this team.

Well sure, crazy stuff can happen. If Marvin Harrison Jr. is there at 16 (and the rest of the NFL teams are just stupid and nothing is wrong with him) you take him at 16 even though we have zero need for WR at the moment. I'm not saying we have zero need for a QB, just saying the chance is not very high.

Least the days of worrying in a case where Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Brock Bowers are all available at 16 and Carroll decides to take Chau Smith-Wade (CB) or some shit, is gone.

 

[JMR]

Well sure, crazy stuff can happen. If Marvin Harrison Jr. is there at 16 (and the rest of the NFL teams are just stupid and nothing is wrong with him) you take him at 16 even though we have zero need for WR at the moment. I'm not saying we have zero need for a QB, just saying the chance is not very high.

I am not talking about fantasyland things. The projections of where Penix and Nix will go are all over the map. It might not be 1 of those guys, but in a year where the position is so deep I can easily see someone hanging around much longer than expected and being a great value more so than a need pick. There is definitely at least a chance we take a QB in this draft.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I am not talking about fantasyland things. The projections of where Penix and Nix will go are all over the map. It might not be 1 of those guys, but in a year where the position is so deep I can easily see someone hanging around much longer than expected and being a great value more so than a need pick. There is definitely at least a chance we take a QB in this draft.

Well with Minny moving up, I'd have to imagine they'll take Nix or McCarthy and try to make a move. Tennessee and Denver will prob. try to grab the other. If we take Penix at 16... Jesus Christ.... I mean he's got an arm and decent vision, but everything else is horrible.