Rule V draft

[tzill]

We're about six weeks out, but I think this year's Rule V will be interesting.

Locks to be protected:
Ramos
Hjelle

Likely to be protected:
Frisbee
Beck

On the bubble:
Corry


Anyone I'm overlooking?

 

[calsnowskier]

I think Corry is a lock.

That said, LHG listed a comprehensive list of those needing protection this year a week or so back. I think it was in the rosterbation thread?

 

[LHG]

I think Corry is a lock.

That said, LHG listed a comprehensive list of those needing protection this year a week or so back. I think it was in the rosterbation thread?

There's more coming. I'll post it here sometime in the next week or so.

 

[LHG]

I was going to wait another week or two but I've been compiling information on all the players I believe will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft and so I'l start releasing that information here. I'll start with just two players whom the Giants picked up late this year and are either signed through 2022 or likely signed through 2022.

As a reminder, a minor league player is eligible for the Rule 5 draft 4 years after being drafted or signed if the player was over the age of 18 upon signing a professional contract. For those signed at age 18 or younger, they are eligible for the Rule 5 drafts 5 years after being drafted or signed. For international signings, their clock starts on the tail end of the signing period. That means, for newly eligible minor leaguers, those who signed over the age of 18 and were drafted in 2018 or signed during the 2017-2018 international signing period are eligible. Those who signed at age 18 or younger were either drafted in 2017 or signed during the 2016-2017 international signing period.

Ages given are as they will be at the start of the 2022 season.

The Old Dude(s)​

John Nogowski, 1st

Age: 1/5/93 (29) Signed: 6/13/14 (2014, 39th round, Oak) 2021 season: AAA (3 teams, .211/.331/.330 in 209 ABs)

Signed to a 2 year minor league deal late in the 2021 season, Nogowski has bounced around. Originally drafted by the Athletics, he’s been picked up off waivers by the Cardinals (2017), traded to the Pirates (2021) and picked up off waivers by the Giants. Getting on base has never been a problem for him (other than in the big leagues). His .345 OBP in 2016 was his previous low and has been as high as .413 in 2019 in AAA. The problem has been the relatively low pop in his bat. Until 2018, his highest slugging percentage was .402. Not good for a guy who only plays 1st base, with a little left field and DH thrown in the mix. However, in 2018, he seemed to find some pop, slugging .453 in 2018 and .476 in 2019. However, both on base and slugging took major steps backward in 2021. It remains to be seen if the Giants can fix his bat but they at least won’t have to worry about protecting him from the Rule 5 Draft.

Ka’ai Tom, lf-rf-cf

Age: 5/29/94 (27) Signed: 6/18/15 (2015, 5th round, Cle) 2021 season: AAA (2 teams, .173/.264/.284 in 81 ABs)

Signed at the same time as Nogowski, it is possible Tom is also inked through 2022. Like Nogowski, Tom has bounced around recently, as he’s been claimed by the Athletics (12/2020), Pirates (4/2021) and Giants (9/2021). Tom had spent most of his time in the big leagues, but mainly on the Pirates’ IL. When active, he did not hit well (.139/.210/.232 in 92 ABs). However, he has shown flashes in the past – hitting .323/.446/.434 in 2016 (low A ball) and .290/.380/.532 in 2019 (AA/AAA). If healthy, he could return to those numbers from just 2 years ago. Probably another player safe from the draft, due to age and health concerns.

 

[LHG]

2019 holdovers​

This group won’t show any obvious candidates for the 40 man roster. The Giants (or other organizations) have successfully kept these guys for the past 2 Rule 5 Drafts or they’ve been on a 40 man roster but their performance got them off that roster, so the likelihood of them being drafted (and, thus needing protection) is low. There may, however, be a couple of exceptions. There are 5 pitchers and 3 outfielders in this group. I’ll start with the pitchers and talk about the fielders the next day. Age listed is age player will be on Opening Day 2022.



Abel Adames, rhp

Age: 12/8/95 (26) Signed: 7/4/15 (15-16 ISP) 2021 season: San Jose (17 games, 30.1 IP, 33 Ks, 1.52 WHIP, 3.86 ERA)

Used exclusively as a reliever throughout his pro career, Adames was an older signing in the ISP and spent his first two seasons in the DSL. After making only 3 appearances his first year, he posted a fairly good 2nd season there (1.67 ERA but 1.33 WHIP and only 33 Ks in 37.2 IP), however, he has yet to have much success stateside. He got absolutely rocked in the AZL in 2018 (6.06 ERA, 2.02 WHIP) and with Salem-Keizer (6.55 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) in 2019. He got a late start to the 2021 season, first making one appearance with the ACL Giants Black in early July before moving up to San Jose. San Jose may seem like a leap, considering his past two seasons, but the Giants apparently didn’t want to let him go or have him clog the ACL rosters, so they moved him up to the next available level. His K rate this year was the first stateside season higher than 9 per 9 and he posted his best WHIP and ERA. However, he will be a bit old to be considered a prospect and can easily be hidden without protection.

Rico Garcia, rhp

Age: 1/1/94 (28) Signed: 6/14/16 (2016, 30th round, Col) 2021 season: Richmond (injured)

A late round find by the Rockies in the 2016 draft, Garcia made an amazingly quick climb on their organizational ladder to make the big leagues at the tail end of 2019. Used almost exclusively as a starter in their organization, the Rockies surprisingly jettisoned him after only 2 big league appearances (though he was pretty terrible in 16 AAA starts that year). The Giants picked him up that offseason. His time with the Giants has been quite the yo-yo. They claimed him in November 2019, only to non-tender him a month later. They then signed him to a minor league deal, brought him to 2020 spring training and purchased his contract in late July. In 3 tours of duty with the club last year, he pitched in 12 games and an underwhelming K rate (6.3), WHIP (1.33) and ERA (5.40) in 10 IP. He’s spent the entirety of 2021 on the 60 day minor league IL (after being dfa’d and re-signed again last offseason) with Richmond, due to undergoing TJ surgery in late March 2021. He is one year from minor league free agency but its safe to say the Giants don’t need to protect him on the 40 man roster.

Conner Menez, lhp

Age: 5/29/95 (26) Signed: 6/16/16 (2016, 14th round) 2021 season: Sacramento (26 games, 5 starts, 42 IP, 45 Ks, 1.99 WHIP, 6.75 ERA)

I think we are all familiar with one of tzill’s redheaded trio. Menez has spent time with the big league club each of the last 3 years. He got knocked around in 2019 but looked good in limited action in 2020 (with a strange banishment to the ATS) and was okay in 2021 with SF. Yet, he was sent down, only to look like the worst pitcher on a generally pathetic RiverCats’ staff, which rightfully earned him a dfa. However, his past seasons, while not great, have not been the unmitigated disaster of 2021. His ERA hovers in the mid 4s and his WHIP in the 1.40s. He’s not a good starting pitcher but I wouldn’t be surprised if a team takes a flyer on him in the draft since he is left handed and has shown some flashes in the big leagues as a reliever. Still, its doubtful the Giants will bring him back on the 40 man roster.

Patrick Ruotolo, rhp

Age: 1/1/95 (27) Signed: 6/16/16 (2016, 27th round) 2021 season: Richmond (39 games, 37 IP, 50 Ks, 0.68 WHIP, 2.68 ERA)

This is my favorite pitcher of the 2009 list and a guy who’s performed every year he’s pitched in the farm. Part of his problem has been staying healthy. He pitched 19 games in the AZL and Salem in 2016, striking out 42 in 24 IP but had some trouble with the walks (14 in 19 IP with Salem). Nevertheless, he kept his ERA at 1.13 that season. He spent the whole 2017 season at Augusta, where he struck 69 in 48.1 IP. He kept the walks down (0.83 WHIP) and posted a 1.68 ERA. He should have gotten a mid season promotion to San Jose but did not. He did get a quick promotion from San Jose to Richmond in 2018 and had another good season (62 Ks in 44.1 IP, 2.03 ERA, 1.06 WHIP combined). However, he missed the last month of 2018 and the first half of 2019 due to injury. When he was healthy, after 7 rehab games in the AZL, he got sent to San Jose! He looked good, as usual, when healthy (13 games, 24 Ks in 19 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 0.95 ERA). In my opinion, he should have started 2021 in Sacramento, or at least gotten promoted there. Instead, he was stuck in Richmond while multiple veterans stunk it up in AAA. Maybe he doesn’t have the arsenal teams like, but it surprises me that no other team has drafted him prior to this year. I doubt the Giants protect him as it looks like they are Taylor Roger-ing him. Maybe another org gives him a chance in 2022.

Jeremy Walker, rhp

Age: 6/12/95 (26) Signed: 6/15/16 (2016, 5th round, Atl) 2021 season: Richmond (injured)

Primarily a starter in the Braves’ organization through 2018, Walker was switched to the bullpen in 2019 and saw a quick ascent from AA to the big leagues that year. He did have a good ending to 2019 with 6 relief appearances with the Braves, posting a 1.93 ERA. However, his K rate (6 in 9.1 IP) and WHIP (1.39) were a bit troublesome. However, he would have likely seen time with the Braves in 2020 but a shoulder impingement issue prevented him from pitching at all that year. The Braves subsequently let him go and the Giants signed him. However, an injury, likely related to the shoulder (I don’t know the true nature, so just guessing) kept him from pitching again this year. Probably the big question for him is whether he’ll pitch again, not if the Giants will protect him on the 40 man roster.

 

[LHG]

Here are the 3 fielders from the 2019 class of Rule 5 eligible players. I'll try to at least begin looking at the much larger 2020 class. There will be some interesting names in that group.

Vince Fernandez, lf-rf-cf-dh

Age: 7/25/95 (26) Signed: 6/16/16 (2016, 10th round, Col) 2021 season: Richmond (.229/.331/.470 in 249 ABs)

Another Rockies 2016 draft pick, the Giants acquired him in the minor league portion of last year’s Rule 5 draft. That shows how much they thought of him. His glove must be awfully suspect because he hit well throughout his time with the Rockies. He posted a .897 OPS in 2016 (advanced rookie), .816 OPS in 2017 (low A ball), .902 OPS in 2018 (high A ball) and .890 OPS in 2019 (AA). I assumed he would be given a chance to platoon in AAA but the Giants decided to sign a bunch of vets for the AAA outfield and leave him at AA. He did slow down a bit in the 2nd half and does seem to be platooned. I doubt he gets protected this year, at least for the big league portion of the draft. Hopefully, he’s around to get a chance at AAA in 2022.

Jacob Heyward, lf-dh-rf-cf

Age: 8/1/95 (26) Signed: 6/28/16 (2016, 18th round) 2021 season: Richmond (.208/.346/.446 in 202 ABs)

Fernandez’ platoon mate in Richmond this year, Heyward had the opposite trajectory in the 2021 season. In his 2nd season with the Flying Squirrels, Heyward posted his best offensive season outside of his debut (1.042 between AZL and Salem). He struggled mightily with Augusta in 2017 (.668 OPS) but got a promotion to San Jose in 2018 (with a late season 2 game stint with the RiverCats), posting a .772 OPS. He moved up again in 2019 to Richmond, where he struggled to a .697 OPS, thanks mainly to a horrible 2nd half. He did get another 2 game stint with the RiverCats in 2019, and has gone 4 for 10, with a double and home run (and 5 strikeouts) between 2018 and 2019 in AAA. Maybe, if the Giants don’t release him, he’ll hit well there in 2022. However, he’s not going to be on the 40 man roster and I doubt he gets drafted.

Heath Quinn, lf-dh-rf

Age: 6/7/95 (26) Signed: 6/16/16 (2016, 3rd round) 2021 season: Eugene/Richmond (.250/.303/.470 in 164 ABs)

The hottest prospect on this list, at least in 2016, has seen his career stall out. He got off to a hot start in his career, slashing .344/.434/.564 across 3 levels (mainly short A but 2 games in the AZL and 4 in the Cal League) in 2016. An injury delayed the start to his 2017 but when he got healthy, he started at San Jose. However, his woes began that year, seeing him produce a .228/.290.371 slash in 75 games. He went back to San Jose in 2018, and hit much better - .300/.376/.485 – but missed a month due to another injury. He began 2019 with Richmond and saw another setback. He hit .206/.301/.330 in the first month of 2019 before getting injured again. A month later, when he got activated, he was sent back to San Jose. He hit .289/.367/.463, spending the rest of the season there. This year, he didn’t get activated on the Eugene roster until June 15th. He hit well enough to get a mid August promotion to Richmond. His numbers there, however, were much worse (.213/.224/.362 in 12 games). He may not even be in the org by the time the Rule 5 draft is held.

 

[LHG]

2020 holdovers​

This group may have been easier to not protect due to the 2020 minor league season being canceled. With scouting reports being a year old at draft time, maybe a couple of these guys who would have gotten a chance instead got passed over. This group includes 7 pitchers, 2 catchers, 3 infielders and 4 outfielders. There are some intriguing dark horse candidates in this group (and a few that should be considered more than dark horse candidates). Age listed is age player will be on Opening Day 2022.

I'll start with the pitchers tonight.

Jake Dahlberg, lhp

Age: 12/1/93 (28) Signed: 6/20/17 (2017, 21st round, StL) 2021 season: Eugene (10 starts, 46.1 IP, 61 Ks, 1.49 WHIP, 6.60 ERA)

Let me start by pointing that he is a year older than most of the players in the 2019 group. He started his professional career older than most. His first year (2017) didn’t look really good in advanced rookie ball either. But the Cardinals had him start in 2018, first in advanced rookie ball and then in low A ball. He posted good numbers (1.151 WHIP, 2.50 ERA but 7.1 Ks per 9) in 2018 but got released before the 2019 season. He then spent 2019, 2020 and the start of 2021 in indy ball. He got lit up his 1st 2 years but in 2021, he was able to pitch better, increasing his K rate in 2020 (from 6.9 to 11.5 but dropping to 11.0 in 2021) and lowering both his WHIP (1.269, 1.722, 0.984) and ERA (4.49, 5.52, 3.05). Apparently, this was enough for the Giants to sign him. However, his 10 starts with Eugene did not go well. He did make 1 start and 1 relief appearance with Sacramento, allowing only 2 hits, no walks and no runs, with 10 strikeouts, in 9 innings. His future may be in the bullpen and may have a chance at getting drafted but will likely not get protected.

John Gavin, lhp

Age: 10/10/95 (26) Signed: 7/20/17 (2017, 8th round) 2021 season: Eugene (injured)

Here is a guy who looked like a good mid round find before flaming out. He posted good numbers as a reliever in the AZL in 2017 (22 Ks, 16.1 IP, 0.94 WHIP, 0.00 ERA). He got moved to the rotation with Augusta in 2018, where he continued to pitch well in 20 starts there (111 Ks in 95 IP, 0.95 WHIP, 2.08 ERA). However, once he got promoted to San Jose in 2018, he began his long stumble. In 6 starts, he saw his ERA skyrocket to 5.60 and WHIP to 1.46 while striking out 28 in 27 IP. He returned to San Jose in 2019, only to start 8 games. His struggles continued so he was moved to the bullpen. However, that did not help him as he finished the season with a 5.38 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 87 Ks in 82.1 IP. He spent all of 2021 injured after not pitching in 2020. He won’t be on the 40 man roster

Joey Marciano, lhp

Age: 1/11/95 (27) Signed: 6/21/17 (2017, 36th round) 2021 season: Richmond (39 games, 46.2 IP, 59 Ks, 1.16 WHIP, 3.09 ERA)

Marciano is an interesting story. A late round find, he started his career much like Gavin. He pitched really well with the AZL team in 2017 and threw well with Augusta in 2018 (that rotation showed a lot of potential, only to falter as a group) before getting shelled after his mid season promotion to San Jose. His K rate as a starter wasn’t that good, but when he got moved to the bullpen in 2019, with San Jose, he struck out 46 batters in 41.2 innings pitched. However, his WHIP (1.51) and ERA (4.75) were not very good at all and, in mid July 2019, he decided to retire. I don’t know the reasons why, but he was activated from retirement in January of this year and sent to Richmond (weird considering the guys the Giants held back from such moves)! He held his own and may be a dark horse Rule 5 draft candidate, especially considering his throwing arm. However, I don’t see him being put on the 40 man roster by the Giants.

Frank Rubio, rhp

Age: 4/23/95 (26) Signed: 7/20/17 (2017, 29th round) 2021 season: Richmond (37 games, 34 Ks, 43 IP, 1.12 WHIP, 3.56 ERA)

Here is the first true reliever in this group. Rubio has yet to make a start in his professional career. His career has been an up and down roller coaster. His first year was a bit like this year in ERA (3.45), WHIP (1.15) and Ks (14 in 15.2 IP). He also started 2018 in Augusta and became the lockdown closer behind guys like Gavin and Marciano, with a decent K rate (32 in 29 IP), good WHIP (1.00) and great ERA (1.55). He also got moved mid season to San Jose and also struggled greatly (5.52 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 23 Ks in 31 IP). He rebounded well in 2019 with San Jose (1.89 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 51 Ks in 47.2 IP) but unraveled even worse in his mid season promotion to Richmond (7.11 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 7 Ks in 12.2 IP). He’ll be an easy choice to keep off the 40 man roster.

John Russell, rhp

Age: 10/17/95 (26) Signed: 6/21/17 (2017, 16th round) 2021 season: Eugene (27 games, 1 start, 63 Ks in 49.1 IP, 1.24 WHIP, 4.01 ERA)

Another reliever (only start was in Eugene at the start of his professional career), Russell’s career is a mirror of the 3 above him in the 1st two seasons. He did spend most of 2017 pitching with Salem (not the AZL) and posted fantastic numbers (22.2 IP, 37 Ks, 0.88 WHIP, 1.99 ERA). He moved up to Augusta in 2018, sharing closer duties with Rubio, and outdid him in Ks (72 in 61.1 IP), WHIP (0.95) but not in ERA (2.49). He only got in 2 late season games with San Jose that year but did well (4 IP, 3 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks, 5 Ks). However, 2019 was a disaster. He only got in 9 games and got knocked around in those few appearances (5.73 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 18 Ks in 11 IP). He got into 2 games this year with the RiverCats but didn’t look good in them. His K rate is intriguing, but his other numbers don’t look good enough for protection or to get drafted.

Tyler Schimpf, rhp

Age: 8/7/95 (26) Signed: 7/21/17 (2017, 13th round) 2021 season: Eugene (31 games, 43.2 IP, 69 Ks, 1.19 WHIP, 4.95 ERA)

Spoiler alert, this guy is only in the org because of his filthy stuff. He has struck out 221 batters in 165.2 IP for his career but his WHIP (1.33) and ERA (4.40) suggest that he hasn’t been able to harness that stuff well. He had a nice partial season in 2019 with Salem (yes, short A ball just two years ago), which gave him one season where his ERA (3.28) was under 4.50. His home runs allowed have gotten worse (7 this year, previous high was 3) but that isn’t the biggest issue for him. He just puts on too many baserunners. Another intriguing pitcher due to his arsenal but there’s nothing that tells me he’ll need to be protected.

Matt Seelinger, rhp

Age: 4/19/95 (26) Signed: 6/21/17 (2017, 28th round, Pit) 2021 season: Richmond (36 games, 64 Ks in 41 IP, 1.51 WHIP, 3.07 ERA)

You could say that Schimpf is a poor man’s Seelinger, as Seelinger has struck out 244 batters in 166.2 IP. Seelinger, however, has posted better ERA (3.62) and WHIP (1.27) than Schimpf. Seelinger has also been traded twice. First, the Pirates shipped him to Tampa in exchange for Adeiny Hechavarria and cash in August 2018. Then, the Rays shipped him to the Giants in exchange for cash in May 2019. Apparently, the Rays didn’t like his 8 appearances in 2019 (9 IP, 10 hits, 10 earned runs, 1 home run, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts in low A ball). He did a bit better with Augusta (69 Ks in 41.2 IP, 1.27 WHIP) but still struggled at preventing runs (4.97 ERA). Nevertheless, he got to move up to Richmond this year and held his own, despite putting a lot of runners on the bases. Maybe another dark horse candidate for the Rule 5 but probably won’t be protected by the Giants.

 

[LHG]

2020 holdovers

This group may have been easier to not protect due to the 2020 minor league season being canceled. With scouting reports being a year old at draft time, maybe a couple of these guys who would have gotten a chance instead got passed over. This group includes 7 pitchers, 1 catcher, 3 infielders and 4 outfielders. There are some intriguing dark horse candidates in this group (and a few that should be considered more than dark horse candidates). Age listed is age player will be on Opening Day 2022.

Here are the position players of this group.

Ricardo Genoves, c

Age: 5/14/99 (22) Signed: 7/2/15 (15-16 ISP) 2021 season: A/A+/AAA (.275/.359/.453 in 375 ABs)

We have our first serious candidate for the 40 man roster! Genoves’ 1st 3 seasons weren’t much to write home about, slashing an aggregate .250/.314/.331 in the DSL, AZL and NWL. However, in 2019, he went to a whole new level offensively while splitting time between Salem and Augusta, posting an .804 OPS in 196 ABs. Somehow, the Giants were able to sneak him through the 2020 Rule 5 Draft without protection. I cannot imagine them being able to do it again this year. There are areas for concern. Most of his 2021 production was either at San Jose (.992 OPS in 136 ABs) or Sacramento (1.206 OPS in 22 ABs). He struggled badly in Eugene, hitting only .217/.294/.364. Will he repeat in Eugene in 2022 or move up to Richmond? Who knows but the Giants will probably need to purchase his contract to make sure they have that choice.

Shane Matheny, ss-2nd-3rd-dh-1st

Age: 6/5/96 (25) Signed: 6/21/17 (2017, 23rd round) 2021 season: Richmond (.207/.333/.345 in 174 ABs)

Never considered an offensive threat (unless you count that 14 game appearance in San Jose in 2019, where he hit .316/.361/.526 in 57 ABs), Matheny’s value lies in his versatility, as he plays all 4 infield positions. Still, his career .222/.316/.332 slash line won’t be getting him any consideration on the 40 man roster or Rule 5 draft.

Will Toffey, 3rd-1st-lf-rf-2nd-dh

Age: 12/31/94 (27) Signed: 6/20/17 (2017, 4th round, Oak) 2021 season: AA/AAA (.217/.355/.383 in 175 ABs)

Originally an Athletics’ farmhand, Toffey was traded to the Mets, along with other minor leaguers, for Jeurys Familia, at the 2018 trading deadline. The Mets then dealt him to the Giants for Anthony Banda this past July. Another high on base guy, like Nogowski, he has also struggled to show any pop. He’s had only one season where he slugged over .400 and that was in 2018, when he slugged .406. His first half of this year, with the Mets' farm system, was awful. He slashed .178/.317/.386 in 34 games with their AA team. For some reason, the Giants put him in Sacramento and he did improve overall, hitting .270/.407/.378 in 31 games. However, the slugging percentage going down in AAA has to be a bit concerning. If he can get on base at that clip, he may have a future in the big leagues but he probably won’t need protection this offseason.

Frankie Tostado, 1st-dh

Age: 3/31/98 (24) Signed: 6/21/17 (2017, 19th round) 2021 season: Richmond (.249/.302/.429 in 366 ABs)

Probably this board’s favorite player name in the 2017 draft (don’t believe me? Look at the thread from that year’s draft), Tostado has yet to show any real hitting ability as a corner fielder. Except for one game in right field in 2018, he’s only played 1st base, left field and designated hitter in his career (and only 1st base and dh in 2021). His career slash (.259/.312/.426) is right in line with what he did in Richmond in 2021. However, despite that modest production, Tostado has moved from no team in 2017, to the AZL in 2018, to Augusta in 2019 and Richmond in 2021. The Giants must see something in him to not have him repeat any levels and keep him around. He did start off strong in AA this year but faded badly. He is young for this class, so I suspect he’ll be back in Richmond in 2022 but won’t be on the 40 man roster.

Bryce Johnson, cf-rf-lf-dh

Age: 10/27/95 (26) Signed: 6/21/17 (2017, 6th round) 2021 season: Sacramento (.286/.377/.433 in 353 ABs)

I am torn on this one. Long known for high on base and speed, Johnson has never shown much for slugging, until this year. Previous to 2021, he’s slashed .267/.345/.350 on his career. He is a bit older, but he’d probably make a good 4th/5th outfielder and a rebuilding organization may take a flyer on him after his 2021 season. I’m on the fence whether the Giants will add him to their 40 man roster but think it is a definite possibility.

Franklin Labour, rf-cf-dh

Age: 5/11/98 (23) Signed: 7/2/15 (15-16 ISP) 2021 season: Eugene (.223/.360/.434 in 318 ABs)

Part of the unknown on Johnson is how the Giants handle guys like Labour, Munguia and Rincones. Labour has posted some strong numbers in the past (.906 OPS in the DSL in 2017; .810 in the AZL in 2018, .855 in the NWL and SAL in 2019) but is not too young to have posted a bit of a down year in high A ball and it not be at least somewhat concerning. Its fair to say that he may start 2022 in AA, but how will that affect his development? Of course, the bigger question for the Giants is, does he need to be protected and should he be protected?

Ismael Munguia, cf-rf-lf

Age: 10/19/98 (23) Signed: 7/25/15 (15-16 ISP) 2021 season: Eugene (.336/.366/.502 in 333 ABs)

If Johnson is a possibility and Labour is a maybe, Munguia has to be close to a certainty. After showing some flashes of brilliance in the AZL in 2017 (.331/.398/.458), Munguia scuffled offensively the past couple years at Augusta (.271/.310/.357 in a total of 521 ABs), the Giants were able to get away from putting him on the 40 man roster last year. They are going to have to seriously think about doing it this year.

Diego Rincones, rf-lf-dh

Age: 6/14/99 (22) Signed: 7/2/15 (15-16 ISP) 2021 season: A+/AA (.293/.377/.514 in 276 ABs)

And then there is Rincones. How many outfielders do the Giants want to protect? Its possible that, with these 4, plus some additional names from the next list (the 2021 guys), there will be some hard choices to make. After a couple of good seasons in the AZL and NWL (.313/.359/.445) in 2017 and 2018, Rincones hit a more pedestrian .288/.351/.410 between Augusta and San Jose in 2019. That probably allowed the Giants to hide him without protecting last year. And, while he hit better in his 25 game stint with Eugene (.300/.385/.533), his production in Richmond did not drop off much (.290/.373/.505 in 51 games). The fact that he produced that well at AA, and at 22 years of age, bodes well and pushes the Giants into making some hard decisions on whom to protect among this batch of outfielders.

 

[Stokes1931]

Really nice work, LHG. Really appreciate it.

 

[LHG]

Really nice work, LHG. Really appreciate it.

Thank you Stokes. The really interesting players are coming in a couple of days. But these 2020 holdovers have some significant pieces as well.

 

[LHG]

I'll start the newly eligible crop of minor leaguers with 6 pitchers who probably have little to no chance at being protected on the 40 man roster.

Solomon Bates, rhp

Age: 3/16/97 (25) Signed: 6/17/18 (2018, 8th round) 2021 season: Eugene (32 games, 2 starts, 62 Ks, 51 IP, 1.55 WHIP, 4.76 ERA)

Bates has a decent K rate (167 strikeouts in 122 IP total) but has not shown much else. His career ERA (4.50) and WHIP (1.43) are nothing special. He’s really organizational filler at this point and safe to say he won’t be on the 40 man roster.

Ben Madison, rhp

Age: 9/15/97 (24) Signed: 6/17/18 (2018, 9th round) 2021 season: Eugene (injured)

Madison hasn’t pitched much in his time in the Giants’ organization. He has a total of 9 starts (all in 2018) and 23 relief appearances under his belt as a professional. His numbers aren’t awful, 1.26 WHIP, 3.13 ERA and 75 Ks in 63.1 IP. But considering all but 8 relief appearances are at short season level and he hasn’t thrown a pitch in 2 years, there is no reason to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.

Rafael Martinez, rhp

Age: 4/18/00 (21) Signed: 7/2/16 (16-17 ISP) 2021 season: ACL Giants Black (13 games, 9 starts, 55 Ks in 48 IP, 1.92 WHIP, 7.88 ERA)

Considering this is his stateside debut season, and that he got thoroughly lashed in it, there is no way he is in danger of being lost. He is, however, in danger of being released.

Luis Moreno, rhp

Age: 8/3/98 (23) Signed: 10/1/16 (16-17 ISP) 2021 season: ACL Giants Orange (14 games, 4 starts, 51 Ks in 40.2 IP, 0.91 WHIP, 2.66 ERA)

Moreno just has not been able to successfully get past rookie ball. This is his 3rd year in the league. His 1st season, 2018, was pretty good (2.91 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 58 Ks in 58.2 IP) but he got shellacked in 1 appearance with Salem. They tried him in Salem in 2019 but he got killed in 7 starts (10.61 ERA, 1.86 WHIP) and got shipped back to the AZL. This year, he posted his best numbers in rookie ball but got absolutely thrashed in 6 relief appearances with San Jose (8.74 ERA, 2.03 WHIP). He’s more a release candidate than a Rule 5 candidate.

Conner Nurse, rhp

Age: 7/31/99 (24) Signed: 6/21/17 (2017, 34th round) 2021 season: Eugene (23 games, 20 starts, 114 Ks in 113 IP, 1.44 WHIP, 4.86 ERA)

A rare late round pick out of high school that signed, early returns on him have not been good. He started out promising in 2018 (he did not pitch in 2017), as he struck out 56 in 53 innings with a 3.23 ERA but 1.40 WHIP. The Giants sent him back to the AZL in 2019, where he improved his ERA (1.26) and WHIP (1.15) but saw his K rate slip (27 Ks in 28.2 IP). He got promoted to Salem-Keizer that season, where he got rocked in 8 starts (32 Ks in 39.1 IP, 5.26 ERA, 1.46 WHIP). However, for some reason, the Giants thought that he needed to skip low A ball and go right to Eugene. His numbers show that wasn’t really a good idea.

JJ Santa Cruz, lhp

Age: 1/1/96 (26) Signed: 6/18/18 (2018, NDFA) 2021 season: Eugene (injured)

I wish I could put this guy into a different category. Typically, NDFAs, at least prior to 2020, were one or two season fill ins before getting jettisoned. However, the Fresno State alum has produced when healthy. Pitching for 4 teams (AZL Black, AZL Orange, Salem-Keizer and Augusta) in 2018, he produced good numbers in 20 games (1.08 WHIP, 1.78 ERA but only 32 Ks in 35.1 IP). The Giants only had him pitch for 3 teams in 2019 (Augusta, San Jose, Sacramento) and while he saw some slippage in ERA (3.07) and WHIP (1.18), his K rate saw a significant increase (86 in 70.1 IP). I had high hopes for him in 2020, maybe getting a shot at AA and, when that season got canceled, I’d hoped that he could get to that level in 2021. However, instead, he spent the entire year on the 60 day IL with Eugene. I hope he’s healthy and in the org in 2022. If he is gone, it won’t be due to the Rule 5 Draft.

 

[calsnowskier]

Rafael Martinez, rhp

Age: 4/18/00 (21) Signed: 7/2/16 (16-17 ISP) 2021 season: ACL Giants Black (13 games, 9 starts, 55 Ks in 48 IP, 1.92 WHIP, 7.88 ERA)

Considering this is his stateside debut season, and that he got thoroughly lashed in it, there is no way he is in danger of being lost. He is, however, in danger of being released.

So they will need to protect him to keep him from being released?

 

[LHG]

So they will need to protect him to keep him from being released?

 

[LHG]

Here are 5 more pitchers and a catcher who would be surprising to see on the 40 man roster this offseason.

Trent Toplikar, rhp

Age: 5/21/96 (25) Signed: 6/17/18 (2018, 16th round) 2021 season: Richmond (22 games, 18 starts, 86 Ks in 93.2 IP, 1.54 WHIP, 4.90 ERA)

In an interesting case of “Why exactly?”, the Giants decided that Toplikar should get to be part of the rotation at AA, despite not looking very good in 2019. Sure, he looked good with Salem-Keizer, as a reliever, in 2018 (1.23 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and, spoiler alert, 25 Ks in 36.2 IP) and he posted a 3.80 ERA between Augusta and San Jose, but his WHIP (1.20) went up from Augusta (1.13) to San Jose (1.27) and his K rate (90 in 109 IP) was not impressive on the year (although 50 of those Ks were with San Jose in 51.1 IP). Typically, these guys start the following season at the same level as before (this case, in Eugene). And considering his draft pedigree, nothing screamed “fast track” about him. Yet, he spent the entire 2021 season getting knocked around in a pitcher friendly league. Hmm, interesting. Yeah, he won’t be considered for 40 man roster protection.

Ryan Walker, rhp

Age: 11/26/95 (26) Signed: 7/16/18 (2018, 31st round) 2021 season: Eugene (31 games, 56 Ks in 40 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 4.28 ERA)

You may notice a trend in quite a few guys from the 2018 draft. A lot of them saw a big uptick in their K rates in 2021. Walker is no exception. Yet another late round pick who bounced around at the beginning, Walker had a good debut with AZL Orange, SK and SJ (2.51 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 31 Ks in 32.1 IP). He pitched all of 2019 with Augusta and saw some regression (3.36 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 61 Ks in 59 IP). The regression continued in 2021, except for the surge in Ks per IP. That alone is probably what got him a late season promotion to Richmond (8 games, 9.1 IP, 7 hits, 1 ER, 0 BBs, 10 Ks). The Giants see something in him to move him like that, but they likely won’t protect him.

Keaton Winn, rhp

Age: 2/20/98 (24) Signed: 6/17/18 (2018, 5th round) 2021 season: Eugene (injured)

Two years ago, Winn probably wouldn’t have been considered on this list (the "little to no chance list"). After a rocky debut season with Salem-Keizer (4.81 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 36 Ks in 43 IP), Winn looked like a possible 40-man addition after his 2019 in Augusta. He pitched a total of 20 starts and 6 relief appearances there, posting a 3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP but an underwhelming 99 Ks in 127.1 IP. However, not pitching in 2 years can put a damper on expectations. It’s safe to say the Giants won’t need to protect him this offseason.

Jake Wong, rhp

Age: 9/3/96 (25) Signed: 6/17/18 (2018, 3rd round) 2021 season: Eugene (injured)

In case you were wondering, a total of 6 minor league pitchers were on the 60 day IL with Eugene, Wong being one of them. Like Winn, Wong was once considered a likely candidate to be protected when eligible. However, Wong’s trajectory started moving south earlier. He had a nice debut with Salem-Keizer (2.30 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 27 Ks in 27.1 IP) but went backward with Augusta in 2019 (3.90 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 101 Ks in 113 IP). He’ll be safe off the 40 man roster.

Braden Frankfort, c

Age: 3/14/96 (26) Signed: 6/17/18 (2018, 32nd round) 2021 season: ACL Giants Black (restricted)

If you wanted a candidate for least likely to be added to the 40 man roster, it would be Frankfort. The only season Frankfort accumulated any at-bats was in 2018, with the AZL Giant squads. In a combined 25 games, he hit .250/.319/.313 (80 ABs). The Giants put him on the restricted list on April 30, 2019, where he has remained to this day. The org hasn’t (yet) released him and he has not retired. He was officially assigned to the AZL Giants Black this year. It seems that, every year, the Giants keep a catcher or two around for some purpose but don’t actually play them. They don’t typically fill roster spots if another catcher goes down but these guys don’t retire or get released. My guess is that they use them for spring training and instructional leagues. That is not the kind of player teams draft at all in the Rule 5 Draft.

 

[calsnowskier]

Ok…. Just wanted to be clear.

 

[LHG]

Ok…. Just wanted to be clear.

Probably should have said it this way:
"there is no way he is in danger of being drafted in the Rule V Draft. He is, however, in danger of being released."

 

[calsnowskier]

Probably should have said it this way:
"there is no way he is in danger of being drafted in the Rule V Draft. He is, however, in danger of being released."

I totally got what you were saying. I was too deadpan in my humor.

 

[LHG]

I totally got what you were saying. I was too deadpan in my humor.

If I was more clear in my writing, you wouldn't have deadpanned it.

 

[calsnowskier]

If I was more clear in my writing, you wouldn't have deadpanned it.

Hi. I am calsnowskier. It appears we have never met. Nice to meet you.

 

[LHG]

Hi. I am calsnowskier. It appears we have never met. Nice to meet you.

I know you are being humorous. My point was that, in that specific post, if I had worded my statement differently, you wouldn't have thought to make the joke. You'd probably would have found something else to deadpan.