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Rule V draft

LHG

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Here are the list of those whom I think have little chance to make the 40 man roster this year.

Fabian Pena, c

Age:
10/18/96 (25) Signed: 6/17/18 (2018, 25th round) 2021 season: SJ/Eugene/Sac (.203/.237/.391 in 133 ABs)

Pena is an example of why it is important to not get too excited about rookie ball production. His 2018 season with the AZL Orange certainly looked promising, as he hit .309/.376/.588 in 97 ABs there. So, the Giants jumped him to San Jose in 2019, where he was exposed, hitting only .222/.269/.396 in 144 ABs. Now, he looks like an organizational backup catcher and not someone needing 40-man roster protection.

Jacob Gonzalez, 1st-dh-3rd-lf

Age:
6/26/98 (23) Signed: 7/21/17 (2017, 2nd round) 2021 season: ACL Giants Black (.301/.360/.497 in 153 ABs)

Signed just 5 days before turning 19, the Giants got an extra year before having to decide on whether to protect him. That extra year didn’t help. He may still be young, but the Giants 2nd round pick from 2017 is starting to look like a bust. He hit well as a 19-year-old in rookie ball in 2017 (.339/.418/.458) only to see bad regression in his first full season campaign with Augusta in 2018 (.227/.296/.331). Hopes that a remedial season with Augusta would see better performance was dashed after a very similar 2019 season (.241/.312/.367). Despite his lack of hitting at that level, the Giants chose to move him up to high A ball for 2021. His 1st month with Eugene was so bad (.174/.252/.250) that the org decided to skip him past a San Jose demotion to the ACL. His numbers were good there but he’s yet to show anything above rookie ball and didn’t get a chance to play again above the ACL this season. I’m sure the Giants wish that they had to protect him. However, it’s very likely that they won’t be doing so this year.

Abdiel Layer, ss-1st-2nd-3rd-rf

Age:
8/9/98 (23) Signed: 6/17/18 (2018, 40th round) 2021 season: San Jose (.212/.270/.394 in 307 ABs)

This guy thrived in the AZL. Across 2 years (2018 & 2019), he hit a combined .291/.347/.466 in 313 ABs. However, in brief stints outside the AZL in those 2 years, he went 0 for 11 in 2018 with Augusta and 2 for 11 in 2019 with Salem Keizer. Now, a 40th round pick, who is about average age with the league, isn’t expected to hit that well anywhere professionally, so I would assume that there was a bit more expectation for him going into this year. He won’t be on the 40-man roster.

Anyesber Sivira, 2nd-3rd-ss

Age:
1/9/00 (22) Signed: 7/2/16 (16-17 ISP) 2021 season: ACL Giants Orange (.158/.238/.211 in 19 ABs)

Sivira has never shown much as a hitter, posting his highest OPS (.721) in 2018 with the AZL Giants Orange. That OPS was nearly 100 points better than his next best season with Augusta (and a brief 2 game stint with Richmond). Still, it was a bit surprising to see him back in rookie ball and to hit so poorly, even by his standards. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is soon released.

Kwan Adkins, cf-rf-lf

Age:
10/2/96 (25) Signed: 6/17/18 (2018, 30th round) 2021 season: ACL Giants Orange (.299/.407/.582 in 67 ABs)

It is a bit surprising that Adkins was back in rookie ball as a 24-year-old. The Giants had drafted a lot of outfielders in 2018 and 2019, so the outfield was a bit crowded in the class A levels. And Adkins’ numbers weren’t that great with the AZL Giants Black in 2018 (.189/.364/.284). However, he did hit much better with Salem-Keizer in 2019 (.269/.346/.413). One would have thought he’d at least be with San Jose this year. But, as seen from earlier lists, there are a lot of quality outfielders in the org, so Adkins got lost in the shuffle. He did get promoted straight to Eugene for the last month of the season and did okay (.244/.354/.390). He’s a bit old, though, for prospect status, and doesn’t have the numbers to get drafted this offseason.

George Bell, lf-dh-rf-cf

Age:
5/8/98 (23) Signed: 6/17/18 (2018, 13th round) 2021 season: ACL Giants Orange (.220/.321/.362 in 141 ABs)

Talk about a guy with a major league pedigree, both his father and uncle played major league baseball. He also has a brother, also named George, in the A’s system. And just like his brother, he hasn’t hit well professionally. Bell has now played 3 years in rookie ball, without much to show for it. In a total of 393 at-bats, he has hit .249/.325/.354. He also played 11 games with Salem-Keizer in 2019, hitting .149/.200/.213 there. It’s safe to say he won’t be on any 40-man rosters anytime soon.
 

LHG

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This next group of 8 players either should be or will be seriously considered to be added to the 40 man roster. Yet most of them ultimately will not be added, in my opinion, but a couple probably will be added.

Tristan Beck, rhp

Age:
6/24/96 (25) Signed: 6/29/18 (2018, 4th round Atl) 2021 season: R/A/AA (12 games, 10 starts, 39 Ks in 37.1 IP, 1.61 WHIP, 6.27 ERA)
Traded along with Dan Winkler for Mark Melancon, this trade looked like a steal at first. Beck was a prospect of some pedigree, which, combined with the Braves taking on the remainder of Melancon’s contract, looked absolutely brilliant. The trade still looks good but Beck’s part doesn’t seem as great right now. He was struggling with the Braves’ high A club in 2019 at the time of the trade, with a 1.61 WHIP and 5.65 ERA, sandwiched around 2 months on the IL and 2 mediocre rehab starts in the GCL. However, the change of scenery looked like it would benefit him. In six starts with San Jose, he lowered his WHIP to 1.29 and ERA to 2.27. Beck did struggle with health issues again in 2021, landing on the IL in early June and getting sent to the ACL and then San Jose for a month of rehab. Considering his pedigree, the Giants may consider adding him to the 40 man roster but , utlimately, I don't think he gets added.

Seth Corry, lhp

Age:
11/3/98 (23) Signed: 7/21/17 (2017, 3rd round) 2021 season: Eugene (63 Ks in 67.2 IP, 1.17 WHIP, 5.99 ERA)

What a difference a season (plus canceled season) makes. At the end of 2019, there was plenty of buzz about Corry and the fast track he was likely on toward the big leagues. He had just posted a phenomenal season with Augusta (172 Ks in 122.2 IP, 1.07 WHIP, 1.76 ERA), so the thought was that he would start 2020 with San Jose, move up to Richmond in the 2nd half if he didn’t fall on his face, and maybe, by the end of 2021, get in a couple of games with San Francisco. At worst, he would be auditioning for a rotation spot with the Giants by mid-2022. Well, as we all learned last year, things don’t always go the way we hoped. Corry, like everyone else in the minor leagues, was put on ice. Then he posts a season just about as opposite of 2019 in 2021 with Eugene. His K rate plummeted while his WHIP and ERA skyrocketed. There is no known injury, but he was so bad that the Giants moved him to the secretive “development list” for the month of August. Basically, it allowed the Giants to deactivate him without an injury, a suspension, a restriction or being released. Bottom line, this is going to be a hard call. His numbers must be of some concern, so other clubs may think twice about drafting him if available. But his pedigree may be too tempting. Did I mention he is left-handed too? I think I may well be wrong on this, but the Giants will probably add him to the 40-man roster, just to be safe.

Clay Helvey, rhp

Age:
2/14/97 (25) Signed: 6/17/18 (2018, 22nd round) 2021 season: San Jose (39 games, 83 Ks in 53 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 3.06 ERA)

Prior to this year, Helvey only pitched 4 innings above short season ball and his numbers in the AZL and NWL were ugly (59 Ks in 60.1 IP, 1.96 WHIP, 6.27 ERA). Those numbers were so bad, I was surprised he was still even in the organization this year, let alone above rookie ball. Yet, something seemed to click for him in 2021. That K rate alone is a reason for the org to hold onto him. Despite that, I don’t see him being added to the 40 man roster. There are too many players that they need to protect. However, the Giants may surprise us on him.

Travis Perry, rhp

Age:
3/8/97 (25) Signed: 6/17/18 (2018, 28th round) 2021 season: Eugene (29 games, 2 starts, 71 Ks in 59.1 IP, 1.08 WHIP, 2.88 ERA)

When Perry was first drafted in 2018, he looked like one of the later round draft picks who would fill roster spots whenever needed. In 2018, he bounced between AZL Black, AZL Orange and San Jose, holding his own (3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 13 Ks in 20 IP). However, he stayed in Salem-Keizer for the entirety of the 2019 season, mainly starting, but throwing 5 relief appearances as well. His ERA (3.85), WHIP (1.27) and Ks (47 in 63.2 IP) all saw a step back but still mainly decent. He was looking like one of those guys who hang out in the org for a few years before becoming a minor league free agent. However, his move to the bullpen in high A ball may be changing that. He doesn’t quite look like a candidate for the 40 man roster but will be a pitcher to watch.

Michael Plassmeyer, lhp

Age:
11/5/96 (25) Signed: 6/12/18 (2018, 4th round, Sea) 2021 season: AA (2 teams – 23 games, 19 starts, 124 Ks in 109.1 IP, 1.29 WHIP, 4.69 ERA)

Acquired in exchange for Matt Wisler and cash, Plassmeyer seemed like a good return on a sell low Wisler. Up to that point, Plassmeyer looked like a stud. Prior to 2021, he had started 35 games (with additional 3 relief appearances) and struck out 153 batters in 156 innings pitched, while posting a 1.96 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in mainly A ball. Interestingly, the Rays had him relieve in 4 of the 7 games he pitched for their AA squad in 2021, and saw some regression in his numbers before trading him. That regression got even worse with Richmond, where his ERA was north of 5 and his WHIP was 1.33. That was done in a pitching friendly league. I doubt he gets protected this year.

Blake Rivera, rhp

Age:
1/9/98 (24) Signed: 6/17/18 (2018, 4th round) 2021 season: Eugene (5 games, 4 starts, 17 Ks in 14 IP, 1.86 WHIP, 6.43 ERA)

The 2021 season is a bit of a lost season for Rivera. Plagued by injury, he didn’t even start the season until the end of June in the ACL (5 relief appearances, 14 Ks in 10.1 IP, 1.06 WHIP, 2.61 ERA). Despite the fact that he seemed to get the rust off in the rookie league, he got torched in the 5 games he managed to pitch with Eugene. His season numbers fall in line with his career line (4.72 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 132 Ks in 118.2 IP). Considering the amount of guys the Giants have to consider for protection this offseason, he will likely get exposed in hopes that no one takes him.

Sean Roby, 3rd-1st-dh

Age:
7/8/98 (23) Signed: 6/17/18 (2018, 12th round) 2021 season: Eugene (.241/.325/.464 in 373 ABs)

I had hopes that Roby would land in the next list by now. He posted solid numbers both in the AZL in 2018 (.288/.360/.442) and in the NWL in 2019 (.338/.429/.450) but the struggles he saw at the end of 2019 with Augusta (.187/.228/.400 in 19 games) seemed to continue. Don’t get me wrong, Roby’s 2021 season wasn’t awful, but, for a corner infielder, DH type, his numbers aren’t anything special. He won’t be making the 40 man roster, in my opinion.

Ghordy Santos, ss-dh-2nd

Age:
9/2/99 (22) Signed: 7/2/16 (16-17 ISP) 2021 season: San Jose (.317/.378/.416 in 101 ABs)

Listed at 6’1” and 177 lbs, Santos apparently isn’t living up to his name. He is, however, hitting in the limited time he has been stateside. After posting a slash line of .219/.380/.331 in 347 ABs across 2 seasons in the DSL, Santos somehow took his hitting to another level. Between 21 games in the AZL in 2019, a 10 game stint this year in ACL and his time in San Jose, he has managed to produce at a .321/.392/.465 clip in 215 ABs. His trouble is the position he primarily plays. Just above him is Marcos Luciano and just below is Aeverson Arteaga. However, Santos has also played a bit of 2nd base and a little 3rd base as well. I doubt he gets protected, just because he’s had so little stateside experience, but he is someone worth watching.
 

LHG

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Finally, here are the 5 remaining players eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. They are the ones that I think are most likely to get their contracts purchased in the next couple of weeks.

Prelander Berroa, rhp

Age:
4/18/00 (21) Signed: 7/2/16 (16-17 ISP, Twins) 2021 season: San Jose (24 starts, 135 Ks in 98.2 IP, 1.34 WHIP, 3.56 ERA)

Berroa was a part of the haul the Giants got back from the Sam Dyson to Minnesota trade, and was the add on to the deal, as both Davis and Teng were more of the headliners. Prior to this season, Berroa’s numbers showed evidence of a young arm trying to figure out his stuff. In 31 games (22 starts), between 2017 and 2019, he posted a 4.66 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and only 112 strikeouts in 110 IP. Even after the trade, he flashed some potential with Salem-Keizer but generally struggled in 4 starts there. But, man, he figured something out this year with San Jose! The WHIP is still a bit high but that age and K rate is so tantalizing, some club will most likely snatch him in the draft if left unprotected.

Matt Frisbee, rhp

Age:
11/18/96 (25) Signed: 6/17/18 (2018, 15th round) 2021 season: AA/AAA (22 games, 20 starts, 111 Ks in 112.2 IP, 1.35 WHIP, 5.59 ERA)

The 2021 season for Frisbee was a tale of 2 seasons. The first month of the season he pitched lights out with Richmond, striking out 32 batters in 29 IP, with a WHIP of 0.41 and an ERA of 1.24 in 5 starts. In a farm with little home grown starting pitching in the upper levels, he earned a well deserved promotion to Sacramento. In a year where pitching got eaten alive there, Frisbee did not stand out in a good way. He got lit up in his 1st start with the RiverCats (5 innings, 7 hits, 1 walk, 2 home runs, 3 earned runs, 6 strikeouts) and things only got worse. After posting a 7.64 ERA, 1.79 WHIP and a mere 46 strikeouts in 53 IP with Sacramento, he got sent back down to Richmond. However, his mind seemed to still be in AAA. In 6 more starts with Richmond the rest of the season, he posted a 6.16 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 30.2 IP. The Giants decided to move him to the development list in mid September to mercifully end his season early. Frisbee has a track record of pitching well prior to 2021 (he had a 3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 190 Ks in 159.2 IP in his career prior to this year), so it stands to reason that he’ll probably get protected, despite his horrible 2021 season.

Sean Hjelle, rhp

Age:
5/7/97 (24) Signed: 6/17/18 (2018, 2nd round) 2021 season: AA/AAA (24 starts, 104 Ks in 119 IP, 1.47 WHIP, 4.31 ERA)
At this point, you may be thinking “are they any good pitching stories in the upper levels”. Well, Hjelle is about as good as you are going to get on this list. Hjelle teamed with Frisbee at the beginning of the year to make for an exciting front end of the rotation in Richmond. Unlike Frisbee, Hjelle stuck around a bit longer in AA. In 14 starts, he posted a 1.20 WHIP, 3.15 ERA, and struck out 69 batters in 65.2 IP. Not really exciting numbers (like Frisbee’s first month) but good enough to earn a promotion to AAA in early August (he did have a 3 week stint on the IL in mid June/early July). While he didn’t pitch as poorly as Frisbee did with Sacramento, he didn’t do well either. For the RiverCats, he saw his ERA go up to 5.74, his WHIP go up to 1.80 and his K rate drop to 35 in 53.1 IP across 10 starts. He stayed with the RiverCats to the end of the season and didn’t spend any time on the development list. Hjelle’s previous numbers are a bit more scattered than Frisbee. He started his career in 2018 getting torched in the NWL but pitched well in Augusta and San Jose in 2019 before a bad 5 start stretch at the end of that season with Richmond. Yeah, he’s going to be on the 40 man roster, and, hopefully, his 2022 season in Sacramento goes much better. We need some young starters soon in the starting rotation.

David Villar, 3rd-1st-dh

Age:
1/27/97 (25) Signed: 6/17/18 (2018, 11th round) 2021 season: Richmond (.275/.374/.506 in 385 ABs)

After having a down year with San Jose in 2019 (.262/.334/.421), Villar rebounded with a great season with Richmond. Let me say that a bit differently in case you didn’t get that the first time. After struggling in the very hitter friendly Cal League in 2019, and not playing in 2020 (I might add), Villar rebounded with a very good season in the very pitcher friendly (formerly known as) Eastern League, increasing his OP by .126 points from 2019 to 2021. His numbers from this season fall closer to his professional debut, played mainly with Salem-Keizer, in 2018 (.282/.342/.535), seeing a more selective eye at the plate but a little drop in the power department. It will be fun to see what he can do in Sacramento in 2022. Hopefully, he’ll be ready to replace Longoria by 2023 and, if Bryant is on the team, slide him into the outfield in a more full time basis. I really think Villar will be added to the 40 man roster.

Heliot Ramos, cf

Age:
9/7/99 (22) Signed: 6/21/17 (2017, 1st round) 2021 season: AA/AAA (.254/.323/.416 in 449 ABs)

After having a monster spring training with the big club in 2021, hopes were high that Ramos wouldn’t spend much of his season in the minor leagues. Shockingly, the Giants opted to send Ramos down to AA to start the season. I’m not sure that move was the best for him. In 2019, after putting up good numbers with San Jose (.306/.385/.500), he struggled in a 25 game stretch with Richmond, hitting .242/.321/.421. Maybe the Giants’ rationale was that he needed to prove himself in AA before going anywhere else, but he struggled to an almost identical slash of .237/.323/.432 in 62 games there in 2021. Those numbers were looking even worse before he went on a hot streak to get a promotion to Sacramento. Surprisingly, he did even worse in AAA, hitting only .272/.323/.399 in 54 games. I don’t know if his numbers show the silliness of starting the season in a pitcher friendly league after a ridiculous spring training or that the move to start in AA was justified. Either way, he struggled this year. But he is 22, a former 1st round pick and has AAA experience. Should the Giants be dumb enough to expose him to the Rule 5 Draft, he would be gone. He’ll get his contract purchased next month.
 

LHG

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Here is how I rank the Rule 5 eligible players for the upcoming 2021 draft, in categories of “No Way”, “Outside Chance”, “On the Bubble” and “Certainly” in terms of likelihood to be added to the 40 man roster:

No Way (29): Pitchers (17): Abel Adames, Solomon Bates, Jake Dahlberg, Rico Garcia, John Gavin, Ben Madison, Rafael Martinez, Luis Moreno, Conner Nurse, Frank Rubio, JJ Santa Cruz, Tyler Schimpf, Trent Toplikar, Jeremy Walker, Ryan Walker, Keaton Winn, Jake Wong; Catchers (2): Braden Frankfort, Fabian Pena; Infielders (4): Abdiel Layer, Shane Matheny, John Nogowski, Anyesbar Sivira; Outfielders (6): Kwan Adkins, George Bell, Vince Fernandez, Jacob Heyward, Heath Quinn, Ka’ai Tom

Outside Chance (13): Pitchers (8): Clay Helvey, Joey Marciano, Conner Menez, Travis Perry, Blake Rivera, Patrick Ruotolo, John Russell, Matt Seelinger; Catchers (0): none; Infielders (4): Jacob Gonzalez, Ghordy Santos, Will Toffey, Frankie Tostado; Outfielders (1): Franklin Labour

On the Bubble (8): Pitchers (3): Tristan Beck, Seth Corry, Michael Plassmeyer; Catchers (1): Ricardo Genoves; Infielders (1): Sean Roby; Outfielders (3): Bryce Johnson, Ismael Munguia, Diego Rincones

Certainly (5): Pitchers (3): Prelander Berroa, Matt Frisbee, Sean Hjelle; Catchers (0): none; Infielders (1): David Villar; Outfielders (1): Heliot Ramos

I would guess that, of course, the 5 players in the last category get purchased in November and that another 2 or 3 from the category above that, probably Corry, Genoves and, possibly, either Munguia or Rincones.
 

LHG

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Damn fine work, there, LHG.

I don’t care what everyone says, I am glad you are here.
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The Giants' choices for additions to the 40 man roster are a lot more than the previous few years. That is an exciting place to be.
 

LHG

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Looking at last year, I correctly called Doval and Santos being added to the 40 man roster. I assumed that Canario had one more year before he needed to be added (I'm pretty sure I'm right on that and that the Giants flubbed on starting his option clock). I thought Castro was on the bubble but didn't think he was going to be added.

For 2019, I thought Tona and Williams were going to get added. However, the Giants added no one. That makes me wonder if I've overstated how many guys get added this offseason.
 
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LHG

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Looking back at 2018, I correctly called the Adon and Webb additions (both no-brainers) but incorrectly thought Wolff would be purchased and Coonrod would not. I also thought Tona, Hinojosa and DePaula were possible additions but none were purchased.
 

LHG

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Unless there are more purchases yet to be announced, the Giants have decided to protect Jay Jackson (with his unknown option being picked up), Yunior Marte (who pitched all year in AAA, without a call, and was ready to become a minor league free agent), and waiver pickups Austin Dean, Hunter Harvey and Joe Polumbo over any of the guys I've outlined. A bit perplexing that they will leave all these guys exposed while picking up other teams' discards.
 

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Unless there are more purchases yet to be announced, the Giants have decided to protect Jay Jackson (with his unknown option being picked up), Yunior Marte (who pitched all year in AAA, without a call, and was ready to become a minor league free agent), and waiver pickups Austin Dean, Hunter Harvey and Joe Polumbo over any of the guys I've outlined. A bit perplexing that they will leave all these guys exposed while picking up other teams' discards.
Ramos and Hjelle, assuming they were due up, would absolutely have been protected. We don’t have the whole picture yet.
 

LHG

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Ramos and Hjelle, assuming they were due up, would absolutely have been protected. We don’t have the whole picture yet.
As we are 10 days from the deadline to purchase contracts in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, I wonder how much to modify my guesses on who will be added. The roster currently stands at 37, pending a decision by Belt on the QO. Assuming he accepts, there will be only 2 spots left on the 40 man roster. Now the FO could start the dfa churn on some of the guys who were recently claimed, as well as possible other candidates. But looking at worst case scenario, only two spots are open, I assume the two you named get added. However, I think at least 2 more pitchers get added as well. I guess we'll see in the next 10 days (probably on the 17th).
Edit: I would be remiss to ignore the possibility of more dfa claims in the coming days. FZ and Co were very quiet on this front last offseason, throwing me off anticipating a possible repeat of the offseason two years ago. Really indicators seem to suggest he's going back to that game.
 

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As a reminder, a minor league player is eligible for the Rule 5 draft 4 years after being drafted or signed if the player was over the age of 18 upon signing a professional contract. For those signed at age 18 or younger, they are eligible for the Rule 5 drafts 5 years after being drafted or signed. For international signings, their clock starts on the tail end of the signing period. That means, for newly eligible minor leaguers, those who signed over the age of 18 and were drafted in 2018 or signed during the 2017-2018 international signing period are eligible. Those who signed at age 18 or younger were either drafted in 2017 or signed during the 2016-2017 international signing period.

Great work LHG, but a Clarification: there is a way to get an "extra" option year (unless they changed the rules in the past 4 years or so).

  • A player may be eligible for a fourth option year if he has been optioned in three seasons but does not yet have five full seasons of professional experience. A full season is defined as being on an active pro roster (at any level) for at least 90 days in that season. The 90-day requirement means that staying in a short-season league all season (New-York Penn, Northwest, Pioneer, Appalachian, Gulf Coast, Arizona Rookie, Dominican and Venezuelan Summer Leagues) will not count as a full season for the purposes of determining eligibility for a fourth option.
 

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Ramos, Hjelle, and Randy Rodriguez added to the 40 man.
Nunez returned to the Mutts
JJ DFA.
 

LHG

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Ramos, Hjelle, and Randy Rodriguez added to the 40 man.
Nunez returned to the Mutts
JJ DFA.
Hjelle and Ramos are no surprises. Rodriguez, however, seems very surprising. I didn't think he needed to be protected yet. He was signed during the 17-18 signing period and was 17 at the time of signing. According to my understanding of the rules, he had another year before having to be protected. The Giants did this last year with Canario as well. Either the Giants' FO doesn't understand the rules or the ways the rules are explained are not quite accurate. I've read that, for international free agents, their clock starts at the tell end of the signing period, typically when they are first rostered on a professional team.
 

LHG

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Fav. Team #3
When I saw this tweet, my first thought is "The owners want to eliminate this draft".
My understanding of it (today) is to force teams to start a players clock. If the clock starts upon initial signing, or FA is automatic at age 29 (or whatever age), that completely eliminates the need for this draft.
 
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