The Sword Has Two Sharp Edges

[BigKen]

Tom Curran brought up a very interesting point on Boston Sports Tonight. He saaid that the patriots have done several things and are now $45M under the cap. This creates two big problems.

The Patriots can now sign Brady to a $30M contract and have $15M left over to get the bottom of the barrel free agents.

Brady is saying that this contract is not about the money, but it's about showing how much the team appreciates all that he's done and will do. But he says he can't resign if the team doesn't show a commitment to improving the offense around him.

Curran believes that Brady is telling everyone that he will take a final discount if Belichick doesn't do what he did last year and not get reliable good players. But Curran also made a couple of good points. The first was that the team had spent a ton of money and effort to help Josh Gordon get clean and keep him clean but he still found a way to get around all of it do whatever he did. Then they went out and got Antonio Brown, never suspecting that he'd done anything and certainly didn't know he'd jump off the mental cliff. No question that they didn't get a quality tight end, but there were not many available and the ones that they did get, certainly messed the bed.

The sword swings like a pendulum with an edge cutting as it is swung each way. The question isn't easy and the answer is much more difficult. Do the Patriots resign Brady and forego rebuilding the team around him because they lack the capital? Or do the Patriots rebuild the offense and possibly not sign Brady because of a lack of capital? If Brady is telling the truth, how much of a discount is he willing to take?

The scariest question according to Curran is this: How many free agents would be willing to come to the Patriots if Tom Brady was not the starting quarterback?

 

[Debbie Does]

Brady has, time and again, restructured his contract in team-friendly ways. Can he do it again? Sure. He certainly does NOT need the money.

Suppose, for example, that Brady goes to San Francisco in exchange for Garapolo. Would that give Brady the weapons and O-line he wants. Not sure.

Really, even if Brady worked for a dollar, the Patriots have grown old around him. The need more than just free agency to rebuild the team.

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

FWIW, Miguel Benzan, who is generally the best and most reliable estimator of the Pats’ cap situation, has them at about $29M in space right now.

You can follow him on Twitter @patscap if you’re so inclined.

That said, they can still free up a lot of room by re-working some deals and/or moving on from some others. And I highly doubt if Brady does come back that his cap number will be anywhere near $30M. They won’t have stupid money to work with either way, but they can be a factor in FA if they want to be.

I had raised the question previously about whether any premium FA’s would be interested in coming here if there’s uncertainty at the QB spot.

 

[cdumler7]

FWIW, Miguel Benzan, who is generally the best and most reliable estimator of the Pats’ cap situation, has them at about $29M in space right now.

You can follow him on Twitter @patscap if you’re so inclined.

That said, they can still free up a lot of room by re-working some deals and/or moving on from some others. And I highly doubt if Brady does come back that his cap number will be anywhere near $30M. They won’t have stupid money to work with either way, but they can be a factor in FA if they want to be.

I had raised the question previously about whether any premium FA’s would be interested in coming here if there’s uncertainty at the QB spot.

People always seem to forget to factor in draft cost and emergency money. You should always take at least $10 million off any cap number that is thrown out there as that money is already spoken for. Teams can always design contracts to get around some of the cap so $30 million can still look like $45 million but the Patriots have always had good depth in big part because they don't design contracts in a player friendly direction and don't like to have a ton of dead money in future years other than Brady.

 

[BigKen]

FWIW, Miguel Benzan, who is generally the best and most reliable estimator of the Pats’ cap situation, has them at about $29M in space right now.

That's what I thought also. But they had $45M posted in huge numbers during the show and several times said, "45 million dollars".

Don't ask me how they came to that number, I was surprised as anyone. Have they redone other contracts? Have they decided to cut some players?? I don't know and they didn't say.

 

[cdumler7]

That's what I thought also. But they had $45M posted in huge numbers during the show and several times said, "45 million dollars".

Don't ask me how they came to that number, I was surprised as anyone. Have they redone other contracts? Have they decided to cut some players?? I don't know and they didn't say.

The webiste Overthecap has them at $45 million. Spotrac has them at $44 million. That is my guess of why they believe they have that much cap space.

 

[YankeeRebel]

Well if the Pats managed to get close to 45mil in cap space the only way they should sign TB12 is if he takes a smaller contract. I would have to take a close look at the FAs out there and I would concentrate on WR and that wouild not involve OBJ.

 

[YankeeRebel]

IMO we need to get a Speed Guy we have no one that can take the top off the D, no one not sure who on the market can do that. Maybe if the Pats nab Olsen that would at least hold them over on TE and with the #23 pick they can get that top speed WR guy I don't know.

But speaking of the #23 pick would anyone put it past BB to trade that and load up on extra round two and three picks?

 

[cdumler7]

IMO we need to get a Speed Guy we have no one that can take the top off the D, no one not sure who on the market can do that. Maybe if the Pats nab Olsen that would at least hold them over on TE and with the #23 pick they can get that top speed WR guy I don't know.

But speaking of the #23 pick would anyone put it past BB to trade that and load up on extra round two and three picks?

Rodney Anderson is probably the speed guy in FA at WR if a team decides to go that way but he is wanting $10 million a year and I just don't see him being worth that. Amari Cooper is another that has decent speed but my guess is he also will price himself out of the Patriots level.

As for the draft Henry Ruggs III of Alabama is expected to compete for fastest 40 time ever. He has been consistently timing at 4.25 getting ready for the combine and has been rumored to run a 4.2 when he gets a perfect jump. Good chance he is gone before the Patriots pick. I know the Broncos have him really high on their board and if he is there at 15 will take him.

Other names to keep an eye on if you want speed are Jalen Raegor of TCU. The man can fly.

Devin Durvernay of Texas has some wheels on him. Ran a 10.27 100-meter while in high school. He is really raw as a receiver though and is not very fluid in and out of breaks.

Laviska Shenault is rumored to run a 4.3 forty. Considering he is 6'2" 220 lbs. that would be incredible.

Brandon Aiyuk is another although I'm not sure Patriot fans would be happy seeing the Pats take 2 straight WR's from Arizona State.

Donovan Peoples'Jones of Michigan could surprise some people with ow fast he runs.

Jeff Thomas of Miami has been getting some comparisons to Philip Dorsett and his speed when he was at Miami.

Darrell Mooney of Tulane could be a nice late round steal if looking for speed.

 

[nefansince75]

Rodney Anderson is probably the speed guy in FA at WR if a team decides to go that way but he is wanting $10 million a year and I just don't see him being worth that. Amari Cooper is another that has decent speed but my guess is he also will price himself out of the Patriots level.

As for the draft Henry Ruggs III of Alabama is expected to compete for fastest 40 time ever. He has been consistently timing at 4.25 getting ready for the combine and has been rumored to run a 4.2 when he gets a perfect jump. Good chance he is gone before the Patriots pick. I know the Broncos have him really high on their board and if he is there at 15 will take him.

Other names to keep an eye on if you want speed are Jalen Raegor of TCU. The man can fly.

Devin Durvernay of Texas has some wheels on him. Ran a 10.27 100-meter while in high school. He is really raw as a receiver though and is not very fluid in and out of breaks.

Laviska Shenault is rumored to run a 4.3 forty. Considering he is 6'2" 220 lbs. that would be incredible.

Brandon Aiyuk is another although I'm not sure Patriot fans would be happy seeing the Pats take 2 straight WR's from Arizona State.

Donovan Peoples'Jones of Michigan could surprise some people with ow fast he runs.

Jeff Thomas of Miami has been getting some comparisons to Philip Dorsett and his speed when he was at Miami.

Darrell Mooney of Tulane could be a nice late round steal if looking for speed.

Brady has always had difficulty working with speed guys who run really, really fast.... to the wrong location.

 

[cdumler7]

Brady has always had difficulty working with speed guys who run really, really fast.... to the wrong location.

Agreed. The Patriot offense has rarely had the consistent deep threat (other than when Moss was in town). It is based on timing and precise route running. It is why 1st year players struggle so much to be instant impact players. I would say if they really do want the best day 1 impact guy for that offense then Amari Cooper has to be the choice. One of the best route runners in football and can get open in a hurry.

 

[YankeeRebel]

Agreed. The Patriot offense has rarely had the consistent deep threat (other than when Moss was in town). It is based on timing and precise route running. It is why 1st year players struggle so much to be instant impact players. I would say if they really do want the best day 1 impact guy for that offense then Amari Cooper has to be the choice. One of the best route runners in football and can get open in a hurry.

Issue is NFL teams are now use to what the Pats do and know darn well they have no speed so they short dink and dunk routes are a lot less effective. I am of the opinion it's time for the Pats to make some changes and I am of the opinion we need speed. But I am also incredibly comfortable about doing that without TB12, yes I feel it's time to move in a new direction and under new direction. So when I say we need a WR that can take the top off it's because I feel it's time to make a change a lot of them

 

[cdumler7]

Issue is NFL teams are now use to what the Pats do and know darn well they have no speed so they short dink and dunk routes are a lot less effective. I am of the opinion it's time for the Pats to make some changes and I am of the opinion we need speed. But I am also incredibly comfortable about doing that without TB12, yes I feel it's time to move in a new direction and under new direction. So when I say we need a WR that can take the top off it's because I feel it's time to make a change a lot of them

That is always the issue of teams not being willing to rip off the band aid. They slowly pull it off hoping there will be no pain along the way but end up opening the wound over and over instead.

I agree good chance the Pats need to change things up dramatically. I think the biggest reason is they need to be able to simplify. Their system works because Brady wrote the book on the system. When he is gone though the odds of another QB running that same system even remotely to that level is slim. I've seen some of the plays and you truly need a PhD to understand it or at least a few years or working within it. If they go young at QB they would be wise to simplify allowing young players to play fast.

If they do keep Brady then they need to know they have to find veterans that have probably worked within the system before to make it function half way. Problem is then that means aging veterans that don't bring any kind of dynamic ability.

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

But speaking of the #23 pick would anyone put it past BB to trade that and load up on extra round two and three picks?

Given the loss of the 2nd rounder to the Sanu deal this would not surprise me in the least.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

I don't think NE needs that WR who can "take the top off the defense"? If that were really the case a team would just go get a collegiate sprinter. Combine that with Brady not being the greatest deep ball thrower I'd much rather see NE go after a top O-lineman (strong O-line class) or drop down to the second round and take Xavier McKinney, safety, Alabama. He should be a mid second round pick?

NE needs to get back to those non sexy picks, OL, DL, CB or safety that can make an impact right away.

As far as WR go NE has never excelled at having a top end speed guy. Sure Moss ran a 4.19 but that was also when he was 21 or 22 years old. He never won a SB. Then you have the Bethell Johnson's never did anything but run fast and won two SBs. As mentioned by others the NE offense and Brady's strength is timing. You can find fast guys in the later rounds. After the non sexy picks, NE needs to find them a quality TE if they don't go hard in FA for one. Yes, they found ways to win without Gronk but it was much easier when Gronk was playing. The two SB teams this year both had a quality TE.
BB go get Olsen or Hooper.

Here's the current NE roster of WRs minus Slater who I don't really consider him a WR. Dorsett with 4.3 speed is the fastest but doesn't seem to have football speed? Over the past few seasons NE went bigger on WR. I personally like big WRs that can go up and fight for the ball. Harry is one of those types. Sanu is as well even though he's more of a slot guy. Meyers is solid but just didn't seem to connect with Brady or the offense. So is it a WR problem? A Brady problem? A system problem? I hate to say it, but to me it's a Brady problem. Hopefully, he's back this season and with a year underneath everyone's belt, a better Oline and a quality TE maybe, just maybe NE's offense can get back to where they once were.
Dorsett 4.3, 5'10"
Edelman 4.5, 5'-10"
Harry 4.5, 6'-4"
Meyers 4.6, and 6'-2"
Olszewski 4.5, and listed between 5'-10' and 6'
Devin Ross 4.5, and is 5'-9"
Sanu 4.6, and is 6'-2"
Quincy Adeboyejo 4.4, and is 6'-3"

 

[Southieinnc]

People always seem to forget to factor in draft cost and emergency money. You should always take at least $10 million off any cap number that is thrown out there as that money is already spoken for. Teams can always design contracts to get around some of the cap so $30 million can still look like $45 million but the Patriots have always had good depth in big part because they don't design contracts in a player friendly direction and don't like to have a ton of dead money in future years other than Brady.

Broncos fined, lose draft pick over salary cap violation

 

[BigKen]

As far as WR go NE has never excelled at having a top end speed guy. Sure Moss ran a 4.19 but that was also when he was 21 or 22 years old. He never won a SB. Then you have the Bethell Johnson's never did anything but run fast and won two SBs. As mentioned by others the NE offense and Brady's strength is timing. You can find fast guys in the later rounds. After the non sexy picks, NE needs to find them a quality TE if they don't go hard in FA for one. Yes, they found ways to win without Gronk but it was much easier when Gronk was playing. The two SB teams this year both had a quality TE.
BB go get Olsen or Hooper.

NE has always been best when they've had great route runners with better than average speed. David Givens, Deion Branch, David Patten, Danny Amendola all come to mind. Brady could depend on them to run exact routes and just throw the ball and they were there. The problem today is that these guys coming out of college are not disciplined enough and it takes at least two years to even 'start' to be in the same book, let alone the same page with Brady.

 

[YankeeRebel]

Brady has always had difficulty working with speed guys who run really, really fast.... to the wrong location.

He did okay with Moss and AB for his one game

 

[YankeeRebel]

I also think it's not about a top tier speed WR, he could be very middle of the pack IMO. Just a go to make the safety have to cover. Toss him a few bones once in a while just a dude to keep defenses honest.

 

[cdumler7]

Broncos fined, lose draft pick over salary cap violation

Well there are legal ways to go about it and illegal ways to go about it. For the Broncos from what I understand they delayed some payments to players because they did not have the upfront cash on hand because of building the new stadium. They delayed the payments and promised some interest which then should have been counted as cap as well but wasn't so Broncos got fined and penalized.