Who Should I Drop

[tlance]

He's a fun player to watch, but if you're focused on him within the first 10 picks of a draft, you're an all or bust fantasy player. No way I'd take him first ten.

That is what he is worth. No question about it. Every major site has him ranked between 5 and 10 overall. He is he premier power hitter in the game, and a first round pick nets you a player like Salvador Perez, so I hope you are getting a hell of a lot more.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

That is what he is worth. No question about it. Every major site has him ranked between 5 and 10 overall. He is he premier power hitter in the game, and a first round pick nets you a player like Salvador Perez, so I hope you are getting a hell of a lot more.

I'm not suggesting that I'm going to drop him, but in my opinion, he's for a team that's punting.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

How many times has Staton finished in the top ten of points scored in your league? Where did he finish last year?

 

[tlance]

How many times has Staton finished in the top ten of points scored in your league? Where did he finish last year?

It does not matter where he finished.

His per game average was second only to Bryce Harper among OFs last year. He may spend some time on the DL, but when he is out, you simply plug in a reserve. Since you only have to start 3 OF, The quality of that reserve will still be pretty good.

In other words, you can't weigh Stanton's total point numbers as the actual production your team is getting. You are not going to leave an injured player in your lineup.

If you take Stanton's numbers, and add in replacement level talent for the games he missed, you are still left with a top 15 OF, and that is in a season where he played 74 games! If he gets 130+ you are getting top 5 production. 150 plus and he might be #1.

So no, Stanton is not for punting owners. You might be too risk averse to own him, but you will not make your team better unless you get anything less than top 10 overall value in a trade for Stanton.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

It does not matter where he finished.

His per game average was second only to Bryce Harper among OFs last year. He may spend some time on the DL, but when he is out, you simply plug in a reserve. Since you only have to start 3 OF, The quality of that reserve will still be pretty good.

In other words, you can't weigh Stanton's total point numbers as the actual production your team is getting. You are not going to leave an injured player in your lineup.

If you take Stanton's numbers, and add in replacement level talent for the games he missed, you are still left with a top 15 OF, and that is in a season where he played 74 games! If he gets 130+ you are getting top 5 production. 150 plus and he might be #1.

So no, Stanton is not for punting owners. You might be too risk averse to own him, but you will not make your team better unless you get anything less than top 10 overall value in a trade for Stanton.

Yeah, we disagree on that. Taking Stanton within the first ten picks is absurd.

"It doesn't matter that he's never scored top ten points, he's clearly a top ten pick."

 

[tlance]

Yeah, we disagree on that. Taking Stanton within the first ten picks is absurd.

"It doesn't matter that he's never scored top ten points, he's clearly a top ten pick."

What exactly are you quoting here? I did not say that. Besides, Stanton was a top 5 scorer in 2014.

By the way, you are the one asking for advice here. Take it or leave it, that is up to you, but don't criticize people trying to help. It is your team, so do what you want, but when every fantasy baseball expert in the world has Stanton rated as a top 10 overall player, it is amazingly foolish to say he is not worth that.

You may personally value Stanton lower than others because of his injury history. That is fine. You might even be right. All I am saying is if you sell based in your valuation of Stanton and not his market value, you are coming up way short of the return you should get. If you can't get at least top 15 value overall in return, then you are better off holding regardless of your personal opinion.

 

[tlance]

By the way, here are the rankings from the first 7 fantasy baseball sites I looked at:

Y!: 8 overall
ESPN: 7 overall
Fantasy Pros: 6 overall
USA Today: 8 overall
CBS: 3rd ranked OF
MLB.com: 3rd ranked OF
Fantasy Assembly: 3rd ranked OF

So, there you have it!

Now, you do need to make some subtle adjustments due to league type. Because you play in a points league that only starts 3 OF, starting pitching is relatively more valuable and OFs relatively less. With all that said, Stanton is still universally valued as the 3rd best fantasy OF behind Harper and Trout. Given his age, he is worth at least a top 15 overall pick in your format if nobody had any keepers, but most would pay more to acquire his services.

I guarantee, if you are selling him for anything less than that, your trade partner thinks he is stealing from you.

Even if you are right, say Stanton suffers a major injury in spring training and is never The same, that does not affect what his value is today. The market is willing to pay a top 10 overall price, and that is what you should be trying to seek.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

By the way, here are the rankings from the first 7 fantasy baseball sites I looked at:

Y!: 8 overall
ESPN: 7 overall
Fantasy Pros: 6 overall
USA Today: 8 overall
CBS: 3rd ranked OF
MLB.com: 3rd ranked OF
Fantasy Assembly: 3rd ranked OF

So, there you have it!

Now, you do need to make some subtle adjustments due to league type. Because you play in a points league that only starts 3 OF, starting pitching is relatively more valuable and OFs relatively less. With all that said, Stanton is still universally valued as the 3rd best fantasy OF behind Harper and Trout. Given his age, he is worth at least a top 15 overall pick in your format if nobody had any keepers, but most would pay more to acquire his services.

I guarantee, if you are selling him for anything less than that, your trade partner thinks he is stealing from you.

Even if you are right, say Stanton suffers a major injury in spring training and is never The same, that does not affect what his value is today. The market is willing to pay a top 10 overall price, and that is what you should be trying to seek.

I wish you were in my league.

 

[tlance]

I wish you were in my league.

You sure?

I play in 4 leagues a year including a couple expert leagues with fantasy baseball writers.

In the last 10 years, I have finished lower than 3rd place exactly once and I have won about 50% of the leagues that I have been in.

In other words, I would take your money.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

You sure?

I play in 4 leagues a year including a couple expert leagues with fantasy baseball writers.

In the last 10 years, I have finished lower than 3rd place exactly once and I have won about 50% of the leagues that I have been in.

In other words, I would take your money.

I'm sure that would/could happen, but not consistently.

 

[tlance]

LOL.

 

[tlance]

You said you want me in your league like I am some NOob.

I am just letting you know that is a very wrong assumption.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

You said you want me in your league like I am some NOob.

I am just letting you know that is a very wrong assumption.

I didn't say you were a noob. I just wish their were more people in my league that thought Stanton is a top ten pick, which you clearly do.

 

[tlance]

I wish you were in my league.

To me, this sounds like you are calling me out.

The fantasy baseball universe rates Stanton as a top 10 pick, that is not my personal ranking. Just trying to help you establish what his true value should be.

Like I said before though, there are 2 very big things working against Stanton's value in your particular league:

-3 OF starters makes top OFs relatively less valuable than top IFs. The value of a replacement level player is high because the position is deep and you only have to start 3.

-elite SPs are always more valuable in points leagues than in standard roto formats, which predraft ranks are usually based.

I don't play points leagues any more, but when I did, I used to ignore OF until the very end of the draft because it was very easy to find breakout OFs off the wire. It was a position I did not have to invest in. If your league mates feel the same way, then you are not going to get a good return for Stanton.

All that said, he is an elite OF. I think your problem may be that nobody wants to pay for OFs. Or, perhaps they know how you feel about Stanton and think they can take advantage.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

To me, this sounds like you are calling me out.

The fantasy baseball universe rates Stanton as a top 10 pick, that is not my personal ranking. Just trying to help you establish what his true value should be.

Like I said before though, there are 2 very big things working against Stanton's value in your particular league:

-3 OF starters makes top OFs relatively less valuable than top IFs. The value of a replacement level player is high because the position is deep and you only have to start 3.

-elite SPs are always more valuable in points leagues than in standard roto formats, which predraft ranks are usually based.

I don't play points leagues any more, but when I did, I used to ignore OF until the very end of the draft because it was very easy to find breakout OFs off the wire. It was a position I did not have to invest in. If your league mates feel the same way, then you are not going to get a good return for Stanton.

All that said, he is an elite OF. I think your problem may be that nobody wants to pay for OFs. Or, perhaps they know how you feel about Stanton and think they can take advantage.

I don't share your reverence for fantasy baseball experts. That's not to say that I think they don't know anything, I just don't expect that their opinions are any better than any other intelligent person with a lot of experience.

Anyway, I just moved him for Price plus a first round pick. I'm not ecstatic, but at least Stanton's fragility is someone else's concern.

 

[tlance]

I don't share your reverence for fantasy baseball experts. That's not to say that I think they don't know anything, I just don't expect that their opinions are any better than any other intelligent person with a lot of experience.

Anyway, I just moved him for Price plus a first round pick. I'm not ecstatic, but at least Stanton's fragility is someone else's concern.

I don't revere any expert opinions, I do my own research.

The consensus expert ranks do provide a good indicator of a player's market value, however. That is why I used them here.

In your particular league, Price + a first rounder is a fine deal for the short term. You might not like it very much in 4 years though.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I don't revere any expert opinions, I do my own research.

The consensus expert ranks do provide a good indicator of a player's market value, however. That is why I used them here.

In your particular league, Price + a first rounder is a fine deal for the short term. You might not like it very much in 4 years though.

I do my own research as well.

I'll move price in a year or two.

Also, regarding Stanton in four years, my whole intention with this trade was to move him before his injuries errode what I could get in return. I don't have a high level of confidence in the durability of a 25 year old power hitter who has already missed significant time due to leg and hand issues. Those are red flags to me - particularly the hands.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

tough.

Because you only start 3 OF and already have two, the decision is very close. Gomez is by far the better player, but the quality of replacement level guys in the OF will be higher than at C.

Still though, I am betting if you throw Sal back into the pool, you will have a pretty good chance of getting him back in the draft. Gomez would likely be among the first few players selected in re-draft.

I am keeping Gomez and looking at best available catchers in the first round. Sally P might just be there for you.

Only starting three OF, the upside of Stanton out weighs any negative from injury adjustments you'd have to make. Unless you are blown away, I wouldn't be selling Stanton.

Me value him? Ahhh... he's the consensus 3rd OF and a top ten pick.

Trade him for whoever you want.... I'd only trade him for a handful of players... not saying I'd give that handful to get him... but am saying for you to try.

That is what he is worth. No question about it. Every major site has him ranked between 5 and 10 overall. He is he premier power hitter in the game, and a first round pick nets you a player like Salvador Perez, so I hope you are getting a hell of a lot more.

I just thought that, seeing as Stanton sucked for much of the season before he broke (again) and Carlos Gomez was fucking designated for assignment, now was a good time to revisit these discussions.

As it were, I dropped Gomez and traded away Stanton while folks were mistaking him for a top 10 player.

I'm exceedingly pleased that I went against your suggestions.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Hey, @williewilliejuan

 

[williewilliejuan]

Your choice. Talent wise, this isn't even close. And speaking of injury, Perez has caught a shit ton of games through October for two years straight. Wilson Ramos has just as much upside (40-50 runs, 15-20 HR, 60-70 RBI).

Yeah, there's lots of OF, but everyone also starts a lot.


Your team, your choice. But you are going way against the odds by keeping a catcher.