What To Expect When Your Fantasy Team Is Expecting

[Philabuster5]

Apr 28/2013 or as I like to call it Nolan Arenado day!!

I am a huge Arenado fan. I've been following him since he was drafted in 2009. He came from El Toro HS in CA, and I just traded for him a month ago (J.Teheran) in one dynasty league where my name is the El Toro Tigers. Coincidence? Maybe. But nonetheless, I'm pumped.

Here is what I would expect from Arenado for 2013:

A solid AVG of .280-.300. He has elite contact skills.
A less than solid OBP of .300- .325 but a stellar K rate for a rookie. (ie 10-13%)
A see a doubles machine who might be aided by Coors in the HR department.
As far as a 3B ranking for ROS I'd slide him in around 11 or 12, ahead of Freese. I wouldn't be surprised if he cracked the top 10.
Cabrera/Longoria/Beltre/Bautista now/Wright/Sandoval/Zimmerman maybe/Lawrie perhaps ahead.
As far as FAAB, if you have a need at the hot corner, I could excuse you for going all-in.

Here's a video from one of the best (Mike Newman)

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies - YouTube

All this guy does is mash. Don't expect big power numbers, but there's few prospects in a better position to succeed in my opinion.
.285/.325/.475

Go get him

 

[Philabuster5]

Cool trade target idea for Cingrani owners looking for CI help

 

[tlance]

Cool trade target idea for Cingrani owners looking for CI help

I think Cingrani may end up sticking. Leake just isn't very consistent and the Reds could sure use a good lefty starter.

Fortunately for me, I have both in my $ league.

 

[tlance]

Question for our prospect specialist:

What do you make of his lackluster play in 2012? I don't particularly need a CI, but I grabbed him for the upside potential. It is never a bad thing to have a couple Coors Field bats.

 

[Philabuster5]

I think 2012 was a big letdown after his showing in the AFL.
There were some questions about his makeup and how he handled not making the big league team. But...the numbers, while down, are greatly exaggerated by the significant drop in RBIs. His LD% (while hardly accurate in the minors) actually improved and his discipline remained intact despite being 21 in AA.
He also greatly improved his defense, so much so that his moving to the OF or 1B isn't considered at all now.
From all accounts he took his demotion this year after spring training exceptionally well and has just worked hard. Could have been a maturity issue. Could have been a little bit of a down year, or a combination of both. If I was going by numbers, there'd be some reason for concern certainly in 2012. But, scouts love him. I love him (haha as my wife walks by shhhh) He barrels the ball almost every time it seems like. I can see him being an all-star a few times in his career.

I don't consider myself an expert at all on prospects. I am however a huge fan, so I spend a lot of time watching videos and reading scouting reports. It's my favourite part of fantasy baseball. I'll likely be wrong as often as I'm right, but that's the fun part of making your own conclusions based on what you see and read. Hopefully in ten years I will be an expert

 

[Chef99]

This thread makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

 

[Philabuster5]

Apr 30/2013 Marcell Ozuna Day

It doesn't even have a nice ring to it.
I have to draw the line on when to write up these things. Ozuna falls below the line (he's up to 4% ownership at CBS, and while that's a crummy reason to ignore him here, couple it with my feelings about him, and he's a no-go here)
But....before I give my brief thoughts, WTF are the Marlins doing? Anyone?

Ozuna is a 22 year old RF from the DR.

2012 266/328/476
2013 316/355/684 (14 games)

You can see there is power there. That's his game. Unfortunately, his approach at the plate is so poor I see him struggling greatly in his jump from only having 47 abs in AA.
He might run into a few, no doubt, but he needs more work if he's going to be a successful major leaguer.

Here's a video...
Marcell Ozuna, OF Miami Marlins - YouTube

He looks athletic and strong, no doubt. Reports are that he plays a solid outfield with a great RF arm. I think, however, like the Marlins themselves, he's going to sink, not swim.

Desperate for power in NL-only leagues? That would be the only circumstance I'd grab him (unless he can fill a minors' spot, then by all means, hang on and hope he gets some more development time...he could be good if he does)

 

[Philabuster5]

Thursday May 23: Kevin Gausman Day!!

A great article posted on fangraphs by JD Sussman just yesterday, I really couldn't add to it so here it is...

Kevin Gausman, MLB Ready? | FanGraphs Baseball

In short, grab him anywhere and everywhere you can. I don't like his situation in Baltimore as much as I'd want Wheeler in NY, but after he throws one pitch on Thursday, he is the best SP in Baltimore. Perhaps a year or two from being an ace, I'd still expect an respectable ERA, with the upside to help in Ks, whip. Watch the video....he really is awesome.

I was lucky as heck to grab him in the MBBRL for the second time. I'll count my blessing as I hopefully count Ks

 

[Chef99]

Thursday May 23: Kevin Gausman Day!!

A great article posted on fangraphs by JD Sussman just yesterday, I really couldn't add to it so here it is...

Kevin Gausman, MLB Ready? | FanGraphs Baseball

In short, grab him anywhere and everywhere you can. I don't like his situation in Baltimore as much as I'd want Wheeler in NY, but after he throws one pitch on Thursday, he is the best SP in Baltimore. Perhaps a year or two from being an ace, I'd still expect an respectable ERA, with the upside to help in Ks, whip. Watch the video....he really is awesome.

I was lucky as heck to grab him in the MBBRL for the second time. I'll count my blessing as I hopefully count Ks

I had the kid on my radar, but then I read something where the O's said they had absolutely no intentions of bringing him up, and of course I believed it; why would a MLB general manager lie?

 

[Philabuster5]

Tomorrow is Michael Wacha Day:

I'd recently stated I'd have Wacha rounding out my top 25 prospects.
Interestingly here's Keith Law's updated top 25 put out yesterday:

1. Oscar Taveras (due to Profar promotion he is not on the list, Gausman also not on list but would have been back end of Top 10)
2. Byron Buxton
3. Xander Bogaerts
4. Christian Yelich
5. Francisco Lindor
6. Miguel Sano
7. Wil Myers
8. Taijuan Walker
9. Archie Bradley
10. Addison Russell
11. Dylan Bundy
12. Gerrit Cole
13. Aaron Sanchez
14. Jameson Taillon
15. Zack Wheeler
16. Gary Sanchez
17. Anthony Rendon
18. Mike Zunino
19. Carlos Correa
20. Kyle Zimmer
21. Jorge Soler
22. Gergory Polanco
23. Garin Cecchini
24. Michael Wacha (noted he will prob start Thursday)
25. Taylor Guerrieri

I think it's taken Law almost a year to come around on Wacha, maybe because of these numbers:

2012 (between 3 levels) 0.86era 21ip 4bb/40k 8h
2013 AAA 2.05 era 53ip 15bb/34k 35hits

You can see the swing and miss stuff hasn't been there this year. Yet, he's certainly more than held his own as a 22 year old one year out of college in AAA.
Wacha has a plus fastball 90-93 but he's been dialing it up to 95 recently. His changeup is also a plus pitch. Likely the biggest difference (and probably the real reason for his rise in prospect ranks) is the improvement of his curve. If it can keep developing, he'll have a more balanced repertoire.
Overall, he's likely the grab to make even over Gausman for this year. St.Louis is a much better situation to be in than Baltimore. Not just because they're NL, or because of Yadier, but because of the likes of Wainwright and still Carpenter.
He's in the perfect position to be successful and he has the stuff to do it.

While I think Gausman's stuff could make him a #1 down the road, Wacha's a safer bet to be a 3 right now. He doesn't have ace upside, but in St.Louis he could put up those types of numbers. Heck, Lance Lynn is doing it

 

[Chef99]

The Cardinals could be entering that "scary good" category. Pitching aside, if they start hitting HR's, watch out.

And hey, I like Lance Lynn!

 

[BigDDude]

1. Oscar Taveras (due to Profar promotion he is not on the list, Gausman also not on list but would have been back end of Top 10)
2. Byron Buxton
3. Xander Bogaerts (and never shares)
4. Christian Yelich
5. Francisco Lindor (Mr. Chocolate)
6. Miguel Sano (Miguel In Sano)
7. Wil Myers
8. Taijuan Walker ( No nickname, but wondering if mom just could not spell Tiajuana )
9. Archie Bradley
10. Addison Russell (A.D.D - Addison deficit disorder)
11. Dylan Bundy ( Dylan "Tangled in AL" Bundy )
12. Gerrit Cole
13. Aaron Sanchez
14. Jameson Taillon
15. Zack Wheeler (The dealer)
16. Gary Sanchez
17. Anthony Rendon
18. Mike Zunino
19. Carlos Correa (Chic)
20. Kyle Zimmer ( Zim Bear )
21. Jorge Soler
22. Gergory Polanco
23. Garin Cecchini
24. Michael Wacha (noted he will prob start Thursday)
25. Taylor Guerrieri

As every baseball player needs a good nickname, I have added a few to this list, as I am somewhere ( 45 min into my workday ) past "bored out of my skull" into an area that defies discription.

 

[Philabuster5]

I like your Bundy one

Cecchini could be "wtf??"

 

[BigDDude]

I like your Bundy one

Cecchini could be "wtf??"

Or, how about Garin "The Flying" Cecchini. Think circus trapeze artist.

 

[Chef99]

June 15th...Philabuster, get ready to name another day!

 

[Philabuster5]

Flores? Lol
Sounds like he might be up even sooner than that!!

I hope you're right on Yelich...I have a lot of teams counting on a lot of guys coming up once Super Two passes

 

[Chef99]

Flores? Lol
Sounds like he might be up even sooner than that!!

I hope you're right on Yelich...I have a lot of teams counting on a lot of guys coming up once Super Two passes

I've been reading about Flores for so long I was beginning to wonder if he was another Sidd Finch. Might as well give him a shot, he certainly can't do any worse than Ike...I don't think.

 

[Philabuster5]

June 3. Yasiel Puig day!!!!

I'm on the road working, and quite frankly there isn't a ton to go on. He LOOKS awesome. Bat speed, strength, arm, speed, he has it all!
I don't think he's drawn a walk all season, so there's a flag. Hitting major league breaking stuff will be the test.

I'm all in though. His athleticism mirrors Cespedes'. He's also been extremely hot in Chattanooga. He's likely gone everywhere though, but if he's not......

Prospect Video: Yasiel Puig

 

[Sam Sportboy]

His athleticism mirrors Cespedes'.

Hopefully his BA doesn't mirror Cespedes' for your sake. My team just gave birth to a Mark Texiera.........maybe he will be worth the wait!

 

[Philabuster5]

Haha....
I'd actually buy Cespedes anywhere I could.
I hadn't even really noticed his avg.... maybe an opportunity out there