What about Josh Allen?

[MilkSpiller22]

Like I said U can pick a few... always can find a small number.

I mean Kurt Warner am I right?

you are kind of making my point... not yours...

you are using sample size to create outliers, when all success in the NFL is an outlier if taking from the sample size of all potential players...


If you want to say, Player A is inaccurate, so he will have a harder path for success than all similar players then yes of course that is true... but you have to take a player as a whole to figure out who is similar to that player...

lets take two 6 foot tall guys, are they created the same??? do they have all the same strengths and weaknesses as eachother just because they are the same size?? if you label someone only as one thing, and then compare them with everyone of that same thing, you are doing EVERYTHING wrong...

 

[SteelersPride]

you are kind of making my point... not yours...

you are using sample size to create outliers, when all success in the NFL is an outlier if taking from the sample size of all potential players...


If you want to say, Player A is inaccurate, so he will have a harder path for success than all similar players then yes of course that is true... but you have to take a player as a whole to figure out who is similar to that player...

lets take two 6 foot tall guys, are they created the same??? do they have all the same strengths and weaknesses as eachother just because they are the same size?? if you label someone only as one thing, and then compare them with everyone of that same thing, you are doing EVERYTHING wrong...

This is twisting and over analyzing.

I get your point. You are basically saying all players should have a chance. You cannot write off anyone for red flags, because things can change. I get that. Things can change.

you also wanna get guys with the best chance to succeed. That’s were data comes in. I’m not creating sample sizes. They’re out there from the history of the nfl and the draft in the modern era. If you want to dispute them or the “ sampling” of players based on a few guys here and there, that’s fine.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

This is twisting and over analyzing.

I get your point. You are basically saying all players should have a chance. You cannot write off anyone for red flags, because things can change. I get that. Things can change.

you also wanna get guys with the best chance to succeed. That’s were data comes in. I’m not creating sample sizes. They’re out there from the history of the nfl and the draft in the modern era. If you want to dispute them or the “ sampling” of players based on a few guys here and there, that’s fine.

I mean that's oversimplifying my point and inaccurately...

I am not saying every player deserves a chance... I am saying that refusing to draft a player because of a single red flag is wrong... everyone is bigger than just one thing, and the whole picture tells more of the story than just one thing...

for example take a 5'11 foot tall QB vs a 6'4

saying you would draft the 6'4 just because the other guy is 5'11 is wrong... especially if the 5'`11 QB is better at everything else...

a red flag is only a red flag, its not in any way a predictor for success...

and the numbers that you claim supports your point is skewed so much because failure is supposed to happen, and is skewed because they are compared to players that most likely had no chance in the first place due to having other significant flaws...

 

[SteelersPride]

I mean that's oversimplifying my point and inaccurately...

I am not saying every player deserves a chance... I am saying that refusing to draft a player because of a single red flag is wrong... everyone is bigger than just one thing, and the whole picture tells more of the story than just one thing...

for example take a 5'11 foot tall QB vs a 6'4

saying you would draft the 6'4 just because the other guy is 5'11 is wrong... especially if the 5'`11 QB is better at everything else...

a red flag is only a red flag, its not in any way a predictor for success...

and the numbers that you claim supports your point is skewed so much because failure is supposed to happen, and is skewed because they are compared to players that most likely had no chance in the first place due to having other significant flaws...

How can you say my numbers are skewed? You didn’t even know the numbers existed? Do you believe in analytics? Just curious?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

How can you say my numbers are skewed? You didn’t even know the numbers existed? Do you believe in analytics? Just curious?

I do believe in analytics, and I was a math major, so I am a strong believer that anything and everything in life can be shown mathematically...

My problem with analytics tends to be that the analytics that fans see are too simplified and are very inaccurate because of that... A;so analytics is generally created with a bias by the creator... if you think something is more important, you may give it more weight...

I do believe teams do their due diligence... But I do not believe that any fan will ever see the same analytics used by the teams... we see stupid lists and labels to explain why a player is good or bad... or even numbers that appease the average fan...

 

[SteelersPride]

I do believe in analytics, and I was a math major, so I am a strong believer that anything and everything in life can be shown mathematically...

My problem with analytics tends to be that the analytics that fans see are too simplified and are very inaccurate because of that... A;so analytics is generally created with a bias by the creator... if you think something is more important, you may give it more weight...

I do believe teams do their due diligence... But I do not believe that any fan will ever see the same analytics used by the teams... we see stupid lists and labels to explain why a player is good or bad... or even numbers that appease the average fan...

I can fully agree with that. I can agree with all of that.

I guess too, the analytics I’ve seen with this, aren’t just from one source, they’re from many. Suggesting that it’s not just creator bias. That multiple sources are coming to similar conclusions.

regardless. Like this conversation, that’s what makes drafting and developing prospects interesting. Everyone has their beliefs. Everyone has metrics they stand by. Others don’t follow that path. I tend to be an odds guy mostly. Gimme the best odds, let the chips fall where they may. Occasionally will buck that trend. But when I keep seeing the same data, with the same conclusions. That’s where I’m going. Regardless of if a josh Allen does great things, or a Kurt Warner stops bagging groceries.
As always milk, I do enjoy bantering with you

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I can fully agree with that. I can agree with all of that.

I guess too, the analytics I’ve seen with this, aren’t just from one source, they’re from many. Suggesting that it’s not just creator bias. That multiple sources are coming to similar conclusions.

regardless. Like this conversation, that’s what makes drafting and developing prospects interesting. Everyone has their beliefs. Everyone has metrics they stand by. Others don’t follow that path. I tend to be an odds guy mostly. Gimme the best odds, let the chips fall where they may. Occasionally will buck that trend. But when I keep seeing the same data, with the same conclusions. That’s where I’m going. Regardless of if a josh Allen does great things, or a Kurt Warner stops bagging groceries.
As always milk, I do enjoy bantering with you

the trouble for me, is that I don't watch nor care about college football... so I have ZERO opinions about these players other than what I read or hear... so maybe I just never get that strong opinion about a player

But again, wasn't Allen seen to be the highest ceiling?? so is it really that surprising that he is finding success??

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Yeah, he was awful last year......

Wasn't good, yes. Offense struggled to score 20 a game.

 

[SteelersPride]

the trouble for me, is that I don't watch nor care about college football... so I have ZERO opinions about these players other than what I read or hear... so maybe I just never get that strong opinion about a player

But again, wasn't Allen seen to be the highest ceiling?? so is it really that surprising that he is finding success??

He had all the intangibles...... athletic, the build, and a rocket arm..... so yeah the ceiling was high...but that was said for a ton of guys.....Kyle boller had a high ceiling too, jamarcus....list goes in.... I guess again it’s what you believe in.

I watch college, I follow. But I also understand that’s not always what translates to pros. I by no means am
A guy that looks at college stats and says wow he’s a pro. So many guys see someone like let’s say trask from Florida have a great year, and think well he’s a high draft pick...that’s not usually how I choose to evaluate guys. I also think there are guys in college with subpar stats and things that have games that translate well to the nfl.

I for one was wrong in Herbert. He just always left you wanting more in college. Had the tools, was good... just never lit it up... just couldn’t figure out why he didn’t take that next gear...

 

[Pure Steel]

Wasn't good, yes. Offense struggled to score 20 a game.

You said he was garbage last year, which he wasn't......

 

[Fountain City Blues]

You said he was garbage last year, which he wasn't......

Oh, let me double down on that then: he was

 

[QuestionSocratic]

Oh, let me double down on that then: he was

"When was the exact moment you realized Josh Allen had made you look like a fool? "

That line seems to address you perfectly. It begins the following article

How did Josh Allen make us all look so dumb? Inside his unbelievable rise

A man would admit his mistakes and move on but you chose to double down on being a fool. LOL

 

[Fountain City Blues]

"When was the exact moment you realized Josh Allen had made you look like a fool? "

That line seems to address you perfectly. It begins the following article

How did Josh Allen make us all look so dumb? Inside his unbelievable rise

A man would admit his mistakes and move on but you chose to double down on being a fool. LOL

Been on the Josh Allen wagon since after the first Dolphins game, stop reaching. Josh Allen was ass until this season and largely proved his critics to be correct weekly until then.