The ten worst moves of the offseason

[cdumler7]

Sportstrac has NE with just over 10 and Denver just over 6 million. Enough for NE to sign Butler or Collins if they are smart. Tag the other and hope to get Hightower resigned?

Well it depends. Are we talking about a complete re-signing or just adding on extra years to the existing contract?

Just looking at similar players and what they just got. Collins playing that OLB position is probably a lot like what Bruce Irvin just got from the Raiders. So somewhere in that $9-10 million a year range. And you never know maybe that price goes up next year because of the Cap going up once again. So if you sign him long-term this off season to me you are still looking at his first year cap hit being about the same. Maybe instead of $1.2 million you bump that up to around $3-4 million this upcoming season and then pretty big numbers every year after that. Hightower I honestly don't know what his value will be. Same with Butler. I would say if I were the Patriots I would sign Butler sooner than later. That Corner position is getting out of hand.

And for me I look at Overthecap.com. They usually seem to be a bit more accurate but either way $9.9 million or $10.1 million we are talking pretty similar area. Throw in they show the Broncos then at $6.2 million which is more than what overthecap says. So again if the Broncos cut their punter NE has about $1.2 million more than the Broncos in cap space. Considering they drafted a punter good chance that move happens for the Broncos.

 

[cdumler7]

Even with the Chiefs scenario- it's not very difficult to get to 20M again in cap room by cutting peripheral contracts like an aging Colquitt, Anthony Sherman, Josh Mauga, Tyler Bray, etc. If you can weasel your way out of cap hell by cutting low positional value contracts (they'll have two extra 6th round picks to find a new punter and FB; and Ramik Wilson and March already are around to replace Mauga) that's not really cap hell. Cap hell is more like what the Saints have been experiencing the past couple years.

I'm not saying the Chiefs are in the worst situation. I'm more just pointing towards the idea that only looking at this season cap wise doesn't really do much when we are talking Cap Hell kind of situations. The Chiefs do have some favorable contracts they can work with 2 seasons from now if need be. I still don't think they can be big players though even with making quite a few cuts. I guess I would just rather have the Broncos cap situation than that of the Chiefs right now. I will agree the Saints the last few years have been in down right terrible shape cap wise. I mean it wasn't just about restructuring some contracts but they were just about having to beg some players to take pay cuts just to make it work. right now to me the Eagles are the team that is entering that stage of bad cap. Not much money this year and already looking like they could be over the cap next year and I would say only 3 maybe contracts that they could cut that could somewhat help them out but even there some of those have huge dead money hits.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

I thought it was the Wednesday's, but I don't really remember.

Maybe, looking at what I saw that was a camp practice, so you could be right there. Either way, we are talking 6 or 7 times if he got that every week last year before starting? Not much at all. I mean now he's able to bring his teammates out with him and work on the schemes with him like he's doing currently. None of that was happening before. It's tough to judge a QB of any age in his first handful of starts. Very few come out of the gate like Rodgers, whether its starting out as a rookie or backup elsewhere.

 

[cdumler7]

Bronco's pushed a 16 mil a year and 30 mil guaranteed deal by all the reports I've seen. Guaranteed money 13th most in the league for a QB (don't get caught up in the single year ones with backloaded contracts. Kaep only breaks 16 mil if he's still on that deal beyond 2017, and had less than half the guaranteed money, same for guys like Tannehill, Stafford, dalton who would hit 16 mil including his 2020 salary). Better than the deals Dalton and Kaep got easily. QB's teams have guaranteed 25-35 mil on a new contract for. Brady. Wilson. Stafford. Big Ben. Denver offered Brock that. Well over the guaranteed money offered to Kaep, Alex Smith, Dalton, Palmer, Foles, Tannehill, Bradford, Cousins.

Not doing that when you just don't want a 7th round pick starting. You can get Fitzpatrick or any number of solid stopgap QB's for a LOT less. You offer to guarantee more money than all but about 20 contracts in the entire league regardless of position because you think he can be great for you.


That's true (not going to call cam, luck and Wilson "typical rookies" though).. could say he outplayed guys like Brady, Brees, Cousins first 7 this year, and Palmer who sat early on too (even with adjusting up the league average QB rating) but we are talking about a 4th year guy who's had fewer off-seasons and training camps running his offense with the first team than those guys too. Those other guys all got to be the #1 QB from the start, get the #1 snaps, build the rapport with their throwing to those wideouts in every camp and practice and pre-season...

So we are talking another 11 mil a year on top of what they paid for Sanchez. So it was a move where they would have made next to no additions in FA (No ability to sign Okung/Stephenson) or releasing Ware type of decision in order to keep Brock. They did everything they could IMO, that alone would have really been stripping away the talent on the roster, any more would have been ruinous.

And wasn't Brock just getting the Monday practices every so often so Manning could rest? That's the slow day walk-through small field work days (1-3 hours at most) where the guys are resting their soreness. They were taking the least meaningful snaps from Manning to rest, not the important stuff where the coaches had put together the new game plan and everybody was out there.

It was the Wednesday practice.

Again I'm not saying Osweiler was or will be a terrible QB. I think he will do just fine in Houston. I don't think $18 million fine but I think he will do fine.

Also I guess we read different reports on the deal that was offered. From what I understand the final offer was actually 3-years $45 million with only the first year and part of the 2nd year guaranteed. So maybe $22-25 million. So essentially the Broncos were giving him 2-years to try and prove himself and then get his big contract while still paying him decent money. Elway is not big on committing beyond 2 years to a player unless they are down right special. I've only seen 2 contracts since he has been in Denver that he did that and he did it for DT and Clady. Heck even Manning was year to year for the most part. Again I think the Broncos really did want to see Osweiler for one more year just to see if he could really thrive being the starter. They didn't want to commit long-term.

 

[cdumler7]

Maybe, looking at what I saw that was a camp practice, so you could be right there. Either way, we are talking 6 or 7 times if he got that every week last year before starting? Not much at all. I mean now he's able to bring his teammates out with him and work on the schemes with him like he's doing currently. None of that was happening before. It's tough to judge a QB of any age in his first handful of starts. Very few come out of the gate like Rodgers, whether its starting out as a rookie or backup elsewhere.

Right but he is also being judged on his play in camp and preseason on this as well. While he showed improvements at both of those it wasn't like he was lighting it up either. I went to camp last year and honestly Siemian outplayed him. Most of the writers for the Denver Broncos were saying the same thing. So this is a kid with an ACL tear that he is still rehabbing outplaying a 4th year guy at some practices. Not exactly a resounding guy you want to commit huge money to. Like broncos6482 said Osweiler is a guy you like but you don't love. He just doesn't quite look like he has it to really take that huge next step and be among even the top-10 QB's. He maybe proves me wrong but I have watched more of Osweiler than probably anybody else on this board with going to actual practices on top of the games. There are things 4 years in that he is struggling with just as much as his rookie year.

 

[cdumler7]

Also Osweiler got a ton of work in OTA's and Training Camp with the 1's last year as Kubiak was huge on giving veterans days off especially Manning. So way more than just the 7 practices you are speaking to.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

Well it depends. Are we talking about a complete re-signing or just adding on extra years to the existing contract?

Just looking at similar players and what they just got. Collins playing that OLB position is probably a lot like what Bruce Irvin just got from the Raiders. So somewhere in that $9-10 million a year range. And you never know maybe that price goes up next year because of the Cap going up once again. So if you sign him long-term this off season to me you are still looking at his first year cap hit being about the same. Maybe instead of $1.2 million you bump that up to around $3-4 million this upcoming season and then pretty big numbers every year after that. Hightower I honestly don't know what his value will be. Same with Butler. I would say if I were the Patriots I would sign Butler sooner than later. That Corner position is getting out of hand.

And for me I look at Overthecap.com. They usually seem to be a bit more accurate but either way $9.9 million or $10.1 million we are talking pretty similar area. Throw in they show the Broncos then at $6.2 million which is more than what overthecap says. So again if the Broncos cut their punter NE has about $1.2 million more than the Broncos in cap space. Considering they drafted a punter good chance that move happens for the Broncos.

Tough decision for BB if he has to chose either Butler or Collins? Collins is a freak and one of those non prototypical style players. Butler arguably a top 10 CB. I hope they can get them both done? NE like Denver have a lot of cap room in 17. But like the Os situation once a guy hits FA you chance losing them.

 

[cdumler7]

Tough decision for BB if he has to chose either Butler or Collins? Collins is a freak and one of those non prototypical style players. Butler arguably a top 10 CB. I hope they can get them both done? NE like Denver have a lot of cap room in 17. But like the Os situation once a guy hits FA you chance losing them.

I think this is why the Broncos are changing their tune just a bit this year. They are right now negotiating with Brandon Marshall, Von Miller, and Emanuel Sanders. The hope is to have all 3 locked up before July 15th this year so they don't have to worry about all this next year. I think they look at the comments of Malik after he hit FA where he said before this past season he would have signed for peanuts if the Broncos would have offered him a deal and think maybe we should get just a bit more aggressive on getting guys locked up just a bit earlier. Better now than when their agent can get in their ear and say "Team X says they will pay you a buttload more than Team Y is willing to give you."

To me if I am the Patriots I lock up Butler first. Top-10 Corners are tough to find and he has really proven himself in the biggest moments. Throw in because he is a RFA I think you can get him locked up for a below market value contract right now. Maybe get him for similar money to what Chris Harris got which is still good money but not Richard Sherman or Revis type money.

If I were putting a priority on them I would go 1) Butler 2) Collins and 3) Hightower. I like Hightower but I think he is a little easier to replace talent wise than the other two.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I'm not saying the Chiefs are in the worst situation

Correct- just pointing out how fluid the cap situation for teams often is.

I'm more just pointing towards the idea that only looking at this season cap wise doesn't really do much when we are talking Cap Hell kind of situations

Perfectly fine and agree with this

I still don't think they can be big players though even with making quite a few cuts.

Probably. The nice thing is if certain things happen like Jamaal falling apart and/or averaging under 4 YPC, there's a 7M (no DM) and/or a trade right around the corner with acceptable replacements in the wings. The Chiefs were the most efficient running team in football last year predominantly without Charles, so they have a seemingly secure future at RB. In the meantime however, 2016's running game could be quite the weapon. 2017 doesn't really have any eyepopping UFA's outside of Poe which they seem to be angling towards walking by resigning Howard to a two year deal and drafting Chris Jones; both of which can play nose.

I guess I would just rather have the Broncos cap situation than that of the Chiefs right now.

Perfectly fine.

right now to me the Eagles are the team that is entering that stage of bad cap. Not much money this year and already looking like they could be over the cap next year and I would say only 3 maybe contracts that they could cut that could somewhat help them out but even there some of those have huge dead money hits.

It's interesting, but they also have the most contracts committed in 2016 (63) and the 2nd most in 2017 (45) which should be messy. My guess is they simply don't care for the time being because they're pretty much hitting the reset button and don't plan on winning until about 2018 or so with Wentz. By 2018, assuming everyone still is around, the cap will be much more reasonable.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

Right but he is also being judged on his play in camp and preseason on this as well. While he showed improvements at both of those it wasn't like he was lighting it up either. I went to camp last year and honestly Siemian outplayed him. Most of the writers for the Denver Broncos were saying the same thing. So this is a kid with an ACL tear that he is still rehabbing outplaying a 4th year guy at some practices. Not exactly a resounding guy you want to commit huge money to. Like broncos6482 said Osweiler is a guy you like but you don't love. He just doesn't quite look like he has it to really take that huge next step and be among even the top-10 QB's. He maybe proves me wrong but I have watched more of Osweiler than probably anybody else on this board with going to actual practices on top of the games. There are things 4 years in that he is struggling with just as much as his rookie year.

I can see your points, saw him at a handful of practices and thought he looked good myself, but I'm not a QB scout either, and those guys seem off quite a bit based on practices too. Some said he looked great in practices too.

I am just saying if you are giving a guy 30 mil guaranteed with that small of a sample size, and with so many other key places you can get a lot out of your limited cap space, you really really like the guy. Those actions speak louder than any words by the guys that know the best, the fans etc....

If they'd offered him a token deal or something like what Chase Daniel got, sure I can see the "we think he might be starting material, but not sure" rhetoric by the team. People hyped up all over Mallett in practices and camp but in reality the best NE could get for him was a 6th round pick. That's what the actual NFL scouts and coaches felt on his potential.

I'm not saying Denver and Houston were right offering him those big contracts, I fully believe he has a solid shot at busting like you, I'm just saying it's tough to say they thought they didn't love him when with such little actual game time they both offered to make him one of the top 30 paid players in the entire league.

 

[Texas Jefe]

Looks like the Bengals' Dalton made one

 

[Manster7588]

No, that's what Fitzpatrick was offered and the Jets aren't buying his SSS pixie magic either. In fact, it's paying a QB like he he's going to be in the mid 20's quality wise.

This is only my opinion but if Denver had the cap space Oz would have his money in Denver. You can downgrade him all you want but when he first took over the talk was Denver can't lose him.

 

[Southieinnc]

Again please explain to me the better option or options the Broncos should have done at the QB position?

Broncos should have hired a taxidermist and stuffed Manning.....

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Decided not to read all the posts here, but got a question for @cdumler7. Couldn't the Bronco have extended Oz in 2014 thus having their QB of the future in hand? For cheap.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Decided not to read all the posts here, but got a question for @cdumler7. Couldn't the Bronco have extended Oz in 2014 thus having their QB of the future in hand?

Takes two to tango and Oz likely would rather bet on himself, or a Manning injury, which means 15M+.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Takes two to tango and Oz likely would rather bet on himself, or a Manning injury, which means 15M+.

Mmm he didn't hardly see the field before last year, so I highly doubt he was looking for those kind of dollars, besides $15 million is still less then what the Bronco's offered him. I think the Broncos wanted to see him on the field first before making a offer. Ended up biting them in the butt.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Mmm he didn't hardly see the field before last year, so I highly doubt he was looking for those kind of dollars, besides $15 million is still less then what the Bronco's offered him. I think the Broncos wanted to see him on the field first before making a offer. Ended up biting them in the butt.

Point is he's not going to take an extension before he's ever played a snap. Not in this QB market. Tyrod Taylor, Matt Flynn, Chase Daniel, Matt Schaub, Matt Cassell, etc are examples of why he would wait it out.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Point is he's not going to take an extension before he's ever played a snap. Not in this QB market. Tyrod Taylor, Matt Flynn, Chase Daniel, Matt Schaub, Matt Cassell, etc are examples of why he would wait it out.

Really? You know this how? I can give you a list of backups that wish they had a extension offer that would dwarf your list. In the real world a dollar in the hand is worth 2 in the bush for back ups. You got any links that say the Broncos even tried to offer a extension?

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Really? You know this how? I can give you a list of backups that wish they had a extension offer that would dwarf your list. In the real world a dollar in the hand is worth 2 in the bush for back ups. You got any links that say the Broncos even tried to offer a extension?

A 2nd round QB hits the market with no starts- yes he would have interest; this isn't a 5th round schlub. Probably a 2 year deal in the Chase Daniel mold that can easily get reworked after year 1 if need be. There's his 15M+ right there. The Bills had to resort to a 6th round QB starting for them (which actually worked out pretty well so far) the Broncos would need a QB at that point, the Texans would need a QB, the Jets would need a QB. Plenty of teams would take a shot with how bad their QB situations are right now. The Texans are plenty proof of that just off of a measly 7 starts.

I don't know, but based on the behavior of the market towards even marginally talented QB's, it'd be anything but shocking to see Osweiler get 15m+ AAV within two years of signing a new deal be it with the Broncos, or anywhere else. There's really very little incentive for a 2nd round QB viewed as the heir apparent to take a pre-emptive extension.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

A 2nd round QB hits the market with no starts- yes he would have interest; this isn't a 5th round schlub. Probably a 2 year deal in the Chase Daniel mold that can easily get reworked after year 1 if need be. There's his 15M+ right there. The Bills had to resort to a 6th round QB starting for them (which actually worked out pretty well so far) the Broncos would need a QB at that point, the Texans would need a QB, the Jets would need a QB. Plenty of teams would take a shot with how bad their QB situations are right now. The Texans are plenty proof of that just off of a measly 7 starts.

I don't know, but based on the behavior of the market towards even marginally talented QB's, it'd be anything but shocking to see Osweiler get 15m+ AAV within two years of signing a new deal be it with the Broncos, or anywhere else. There's really very little incentive for a 2nd round QB viewed as the heir apparent to take a pre-emptive extension.

Got to agree to disagree here. Mostly because I'm to lazy to look up the multiple second round QBs that have faded away to be zeros. I would say there is plenty of reasons for a second round pick to take a extension, mostly because until you get on the field, you don't know if your up to the job and in fact I don't think he is.

Again, you got any links even hinting that the Broncos tried even just a little to extended him?