The ten worst moves of the offseason

[Niner Outlaw]

#1: The 49ers hiring Chip Kelly.

Hiring Kelly as HC only wasn't a bad move, let alone one of the top 10 worst of the offseason. Kelly's biggest enemy is Kelly the GM, who didn't make the trip to San Fran.

 

[cdumler7]

Some fair points but no one was sure if PM was the right choice going into the POs and SB either. Agree it's easy to look back and say piss off Os because the result turned out so well. Since you like the what if game.
What if PM went down in flames? Everything else remained the same. Does Denver go after Os instead of letting him walk? You keep telling me how much cap $ Denver has next year. Certainly 14-18 if negotiated sooner with Os for the next 4-5 years would be a good deal?

Few things here...

1) Yes putting Manning in was a huge risk. Honestly to me that will be a career defining moment for Kubiak. It could have easily blown up in his face. I remember fore the Pittsburgh game people talking about if the Broncos were 1 and done with Manning how terrible that would look. He took a risk and it paid off. He trusted his gut that Osweiler wasn't ready for the big time show. He saw in that Chargers game Osweiler losing the huddle and losing his cool. Gave him a chance after half time to really get the team back under control and it just went worse. So I think Kubiak saw all that and decided the cooler head of the veteran was worth the risk.

2) Yes pissing off Os probably lead to his departure but again I would take that any day for a Super Bowl.

3) Do they go after Os if the team goes down in flames...Hmmm I'm not sure. I think it would depend just like it did on how much he actually wanted. The Broncos felt like they presented a fair offer for what he had done at the $12 million a year mark for say a 2-3 year contract so that he could still earn a big pay day if he played well. He turned it down and wanted out of Denver.

4) I don't think a $14-18 million contract would have been worth it. I look at all these teams that keep staying in mediocrity who are paying huge money to mediocre QB's. Is it really worth it to pay a guy for your team to continue to struggle to surround them with talent because they are taking up so much cap space yet under producing compared to their contract?

5) Like I said I was ok with the $12 million a year for maybe a 2-year contract. He only had 7 starts. And was mediocre in those starts. The Broncos can't contribute huge money to such a player. Just not smart work with the cap.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

And part of this is that the Cap is not a simple thing. When you are dealing with 100's of millions of dollars here and having to plan for the now and the future say 3-5 years out it is not going to be a simple answer. You keep trying to take a very complicated matter and make it simple. It just isn't that easy.

No I'm not we're both armchair GMs. We're not lawyers, negotiators, players or player reps. So I'm not going to do a deep dive on every topic. Above and beyond the compkexity of the cap and CBA and rules we have no idea what goes on beyond close doors. So why get down in the weeds on speculation? If team X has around 5 million dollars prior to camp left in cap space that is playing with fire in my opinion. I don't need a physics degree to make that a fact. It happens every year to teams. It's not where a team WANTS to be.
Simple not complex.
I've got it Denver will have the most cap $ come next year all is great

 

[Thruthefog]

Hiring Kelly as HC only wasn't a bad move, let alone one of the top 10 worst of the offseason. Kelly's biggest enemy is Kelly the GM, who didn't make the trip to San Fran.

Too late. It's another general thread that has been turned into another Broncos thread by page 2.

(I think it's his scheme, but we'll see how it goes.)

 

[NWPATSFAN]

I'm saying that Denver didn't think he was worth the money that he got. It's not as siimple as can they afford to pay player x amount of dollars, it's also is player worth x amount of dollars. If the Broncos had truly desired to, they absolutely could have worked out a contract to pay Osweiler what the Texans paid him. But they didn't think he was worth that so they didn't.

We will see. You might be singing a different tune "IF" Sanchez and whoever else Denver brings in and or tries groom doesn't pan out. "IF" Os turns out to be even top 15-20, $18 mil in 2020 will be cheap.

 

[cdumler7]

No I'm not we're both armchair GMs. We're not lawyers, negotiators, players or player reps. So I'm not going to do a deep dive on every topic. Above and beyond the compkexity of the cap and CBA and rules we have no idea what goes on beyond close doors. So why get down in the weeds on speculation? If team X has around 5 million dollars prior to camp left in cap space that is playing with fire in my opinion. I don't need a physics degree to make that a fact. It happens every year to teams. It's not where a team WANTS to be.
Simple not complex.
I've got it Denver will have the most cap $ come next year all is great

Over half the league has $11 million or less heading into camp as we type right now. I guess I don't view it as the Broncos are in this terrible beyond belief situation that you keep speaking of. Throw in as I have said if they really really want somebody that they think can help because they have so much cap space next year it is easy to push the money to next year and still not be in cap hell for future years with such a decision. They have options which is better than a lot of teams.

To me like I said Cap Hell when you say something like that we just have such different definitions. To me it does involve looking at future years and my team's ability to sign guys beyond this year. I look at the Chiefs for example who have the least amount of Cap Space this year with only $1.3 million. They better hope for 0 injuries this year. Beyond that though they have less than $5 million in cap space next year. they can't even sign their entire draft next year because of the cap situation they are in. That to me is Cap Hell. That is where you have to really start cutting guys and restructuring contracts that hurt future years. The Bronocos so far have not had to restructure any contracts and have plenty of room next year to re-sign the guys they want and add some more talent through FA.

 

[Broncos6482]

We will see. You might be singing a different tune "IF" Sanchez and whoever else Denver brings in and or tries groom doesn't pan out. "IF" Os turns out to be even top 15-20, $18 mil in 2020 will be cheap.

That's true. It all depends on how Osweiler develops. If he turns into a top 10 qb, the Broncos will look bad for letting him get away. If he turns into a bottom 10 qb, the Broncos will look smart for not overpaying. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

 

[Broncos6482]

Too late. It's another general thread that has been turned into another Broncos thread by page 2.

(I think it's his scheme, but we'll see how it goes.)

Post 2 actually. But notice nothing in the original post mentioned the Broncos, and it wasn't even a Broncos fan that brought up the Broncos.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

Few things wrong with this...

1) If the Broncos wanted to sign Osweiler they wouldn't have to restructure if they didn't want to. Look at the Chiefs this past season with Houston. His first year Cap Hit was $6 million. All the Broncos would have to do is structure Osweiler's contract to fit in year two with a bigger cap hit. Again this is why I say whenever talking Cap you have to talk about future years. The Broncos didn't view Osweiler as a guy that was worth committing huge money to because he is not a core player on the team.

2) Our Punter Colquitt. If we were to cut him after his dead money hit it saves the team $3.25 million. The next contract to come on the 53 man roster is a contract of $525,000. So in reality the team cap wise is truly saving about $2.75 million. Now some of that depends on the actual 53 that make the roster because say some UDFA guys make the roster then that number becomes less for the final 53 man on the roster and gives us a great cap savings. It is not a great savings but at the same time every little bit helps. Again that is money that can towards say Miller so that his cap hit this year can be that much bigger and future years much smaller to help our cap out that much more.

3) Obviously our definitions of Cap Hell are very different...Would you say that NE was in Cap Hell last year because they were very much up against the cap last year and couldn't hardly sign anybody? To me Cap Hell means this year and future years are in trouble because of cap decisions you have made in the past. It means that you are going to have to restructure contracts and keep pushing those cap hits to future years just to fit everybody this year. The Broncos haven't had to do that. Future years are not in jeapordy by decisions made this year.

You're starting to make my eyes hurt.

1. That's making a lot of assumptions.
2. That's assuming you're replacing the kicker with a player who will make minimum.
3. Yes NE was in cap hell last year. It kept them from being as effective as they may have wanted to be in FA. I likely played into them not being able to sign Chandler Jones? Having said that last I looked NE had $17 million or so in 16. Giving them flexibility to try and sign a Butler or Collins as well as pick up a late season addition if needed.

 

[Broncos6482]

I'll say this, @NWPATSFAN, you have a very strange definition of cap hell, but at least you're consistent with it.

 

[cdumler7]

You're starting to make my eyes hurt.

1. That's making a lot of assumptions.
2. That's assuming you're replacing the kicker with a player who will make minimum.
3. Yes NE was in cap hell last year. It kept them from being as effective as they may have wanted to be in FA. I likely played into them not being able to sign Chandler Jones? Having said that last I looked NE had $17 million or so in 16. Giving them flexibility to try and sign a Butler or Collins as well as pick up a late season addition if needed.

1) Not sure what assumptions you are talking about. Broncos didn't try to sign Osweiler to this huge money deal. They wanted him for a 2-year contract. That is pretty easy to research and see. They wanted Osweiler to prove more before giving him a big contract. And it is not hard to see that you can design contracts to have certain cap hits happen in certain years. Just because he signed an $18 million a year contract doesn't mean every year $18 million is the cap hit. It is easy to design contracts so that you don't have to restructure other contracts this year. That is if you have lots of money available in future years.

2) When you take somebody off the 53-man roster the contract that replaces it is the next cheapest contract available. Most likely that will be around a $500,000 or so contract. It is pretty easy to look at. Just go to Overthecap.com to see all the contracts as see what the 53rd player would cost if you moved number 54 into that spot.

3) Been awhile since you looked then for the Patriots. They have about $9.9 million in cap space still available. So you have $3.9 million more than us right now. Like I said we cut our punter and get that about $2.75 million more in cap space we are practically even as a team in cap space.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

Here's a link to the 2017 cap numbers. As of right now, Denver has the most cap space. It's not a prediction, it's a fact.

Dude I got the numbers. What we don't know is if there will be any new players signed or current contracts
restructured that will effect these numbers.

 

[cdumler7]

Dude I got the numbers. What we don't know is if there will be any new players signed or current contracts
restructured that will effect these numbers.

Oh I bet they don't have the most money available by the time next year starts. If they get Miller signed long-term which they should then that will take our number down. What it does show is that even with signing Miller the Broncos still have the room to sign other players though beyond him next year. Throw in they already have 49 players signed for next year. That is a decent number considering the cap still available.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

I think Os wanted out the moment he was benched, and it was going to be difficult for the Broncos to bring him back regardless of how much they were willing to spend. Best chance to re-sign him would have been to place the franchise tag on him and get Von Miller re-signed before he hit free agency. But with the tag unavailable, Os was most likely gone.

My heart be still. We agreed twice today

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I look at the Chiefs for example who have the least amount of Cap Space this year with only $1.3 million. They better hope for 0 injuries this year. Beyond that though they have less than $5 million in cap space next year. they can't even sign their entire draft next year because of the cap situation they are in. That to me is Cap Hell. That is where you have to really start cutting guys and restructuring contracts that hurt future years. The Bronocos so far have not had to restructure any contracts and have plenty of room next year to re-sign the guys they want and add some more talent through FA.

Even with the Chiefs scenario- it's not very difficult to get to 20M again in cap room by cutting peripheral contracts like an aging Colquitt, Anthony Sherman, Josh Mauga, Tyler Bray, etc. If you can weasel your way out of cap hell by cutting low positional value contracts (they'll have two extra 6th round picks to find a new punter and FB; and Ramik Wilson and March already are around to replace Mauga) that's not really cap hell. Cap hell is more like what the Saints have been experiencing the past couple years.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

Few things here...

1) Yes putting Manning in was a huge risk. Honestly to me that will be a career defining moment for Kubiak. It could have easily blown up in his face. I remember fore the Pittsburgh game people talking about if the Broncos were 1 and done with Manning how terrible that would look. He took a risk and it paid off. He trusted his gut that Osweiler wasn't ready for the big time show. He saw in that Chargers game Osweiler losing the huddle and losing his cool. Gave him a chance after half time to really get the team back under control and it just went worse. So I think Kubiak saw all that and decided the cooler head of the veteran was worth the risk.

2) Yes pissing off Os probably lead to his departure but again I would take that any day for a Super Bowl.

3) Do they go after Os if the team goes down in flames...Hmmm I'm not sure. I think it would depend just like it did on how much he actually wanted. The Broncos felt like they presented a fair offer for what he had done at the $12 million a year mark for say a 2-3 year contract so that he could still earn a big pay day if he played well. He turned it down and wanted out of Denver.

4) I don't think a $14-18 million contract would have been worth it. I look at all these teams that keep staying in mediocrity who are paying huge money to mediocre QB's. Is it really worth it to pay a guy for your team to continue to struggle to surround them with talent because they are taking up so much cap space yet under producing compared to their contract?

5) Like I said I was ok with the $12 million a year for maybe a 2-year contract. He only had 7 starts. And was mediocre in those starts. The Broncos can't contribute huge money to such a player. Just not smart work with the cap.

1.
2.
3.
4.
5. time will tell. 2 years at 12 mil I think is a big slap in the face. 4 years at 12 maybe with none of the other issues that went on along with a lot of guarenteed maybe Os is still in orange? Would've been a good deal for Denver and ok deal for Os prior to the Houston $

 

[NWPATSFAN]

1) Not sure what assumptions you are talking about. Broncos didn't try to sign Osweiler to this huge money deal. They wanted him for a 2-year contract. That is pretty easy to research and see. They wanted Osweiler to prove more before giving him a big contract. And it is not hard to see that you can design contracts to have certain cap hits happen in certain years. Just because he signed an $18 million a year contract doesn't mean every year $18 million is the cap hit. It is easy to design contracts so that you don't have to restructure other contracts this year. That is if you have lots of money available in future years.

2) When you take somebody off the 53-man roster the contract that replaces it is the next cheapest contract available. Most likely that will be around a $500,000 or so contract. It is pretty easy to look at. Just go to Overthecap.com to see all the contracts as see what the 53rd player would cost if you moved number 54 into that spot.

3) Been awhile since you looked then for the Patriots. They have about $9.9 million in cap space still available. So you have $3.9 million more than us right now. Like I said we cut our punter and get that about $2.75 million more in cap space we are practically even as a team in cap space.

Sportstrac has NE with just over 10 and Denver just over 6 million. Enough for NE to sign Butler or Collins if they are smart. Tag the other and hope to get Hightower resigned?

 

[Rockinkuwait]

Few things here...

1) Cam, Luck, and Wilson all had their first 7 starts as rookies. We are talking about a 4th year guy in the league. I would hope he is playing a little better than a typical rookie.

2) Osweiler was actually getting lots of practice time throughout the off season and season with the #1 unit. They made Manning take at least 1 day off a week in practice so Osweiler got plenty of reps with the 1's.

3) Broncos made a push to keep Osweiler as yes you don't want to go into the season with only a 7th round pick QB on your roster. I don't think they pushed all that hard though. I think they liked him but didn't really love him. Like I've said I think Osweiler can be a decent QB in this league. I think the Broncos though showed they don't view him as that guy that is a top-10 consistent QB for you. Honestly what they offered him was about the price of the 20th ranked QB in the league which to me is about what he looks like.

Bronco's pushed a 16 mil a year and 30 mil guaranteed deal by all the reports I've seen. Guaranteed money 13th most in the league for a QB (don't get caught up in the single year ones with backloaded contracts. Kaep only breaks 16 mil if he's still on that deal beyond 2017, and had less than half the guaranteed money, same for guys like Tannehill, Stafford, dalton who would hit 16 mil including his 2020 salary). Better than the deals Dalton and Kaep got easily. QB's teams have guaranteed 25-35 mil on a new contract for. Brady. Wilson. Stafford. Big Ben. Denver offered Brock that. Well over the guaranteed money offered to Kaep, Alex Smith, Dalton, Palmer, Foles, Tannehill, Bradford, Cousins.

Not doing that when you just don't want a 7th round pick starting. You can get Fitzpatrick or any number of solid stopgap QB's for a LOT less. You offer to guarantee more money than all but about 20 contracts in the entire league regardless of position because you think he can be great for you.


That's true (not going to call cam, luck and Wilson "typical rookies" though).. could say he outplayed guys like Brady, Brees, Cousins first 7 this year, and Palmer who sat early on too (even with adjusting up the league average QB rating) but we are talking about a 4th year guy who's had fewer off-seasons and training camps running his offense with the first team than those guys too. Those other guys all got to be the #1 QB from the start, get the #1 snaps, build the rapport with their throwing to those wideouts in every camp and practice and pre-season...

So we are talking another 11 mil a year on top of what they paid for Sanchez. So it was a move where they would have made next to no additions in FA (No ability to sign Okung/Stephenson) or releasing Ware type of decision in order to keep Brock. They did everything they could IMO, that alone would have really been stripping away the talent on the roster, any more would have been ruinous.

And wasn't Brock just getting the Monday practices every so often so Manning could rest? That's the slow day walk-through small field work days (1-3 hours at most) where the guys are resting their soreness. They were taking the least meaningful snaps from Manning to rest, not the important stuff where the coaches had put together the new game plan and everybody was out there.

 

[Broncos6482]

Even with the Chiefs scenario- it's not very difficult to get to 20M again in cap room by cutting peripheral contracts like an aging Colquitt, Anthony Sherman, Josh Mauga, Tyler Bray, etc. If you can weasel your way out of cap hell by cutting low positional value contracts (they'll have two extra 6th round picks to find a new punter and FB; and Ramik Wilson and March already are around to replace Mauga) that's not really cap hell. Cap hell is more like what the Saints have been experiencing the past couple years.

I do think that's what most people mean when they talk about cap hell. Being tight against the cap for a year doesn't sound like any kind of hell to me.

 

[Broncos6482]

And wasn't Brock just getting the Monday practices every so often so Manning could rest? That's the slow day walk-through small field work days (1-3 hours at most) where the guys are resting their soreness. They were taking the least meaningful snaps from Manning to rest, not the important stuff where the coaches had put together the new game plan and everybody was out there.

I thought it was the Wednesday's, but I don't really remember.