State of the Team

[SFGRTB]

Yeah. I don't expect a tear down by any stretch.

Nunez
Maybe Queto
Maybe Span
Hill and Gonor, if anyone wants them.
Maybe Melancon, but the Giants will need to blown away. Same with Panik.
Anyone in the pen is avail, but I doubt there will be interest.

And the QO system has been completely revamped. Does anyone know how it would work in Cueto's case this year, assuming he opts out?

It's more what teams lose for signing a player that was completely overhauled, but the compensation for the teams losing a player still changed a little bit.

If a team loses a player and they sign for more than $50M (in total value), the team gets a comp pick which is in between the 1st and 2nd round (like it is now, except with the $50M wrinkle thrown in). If the player they lose signs for less than $50M, the team gets a comp pick which falls in between the 2nd and 3rd round. If a team is over the luxury tax line, they get a comp pick too, but it's in between the 4th and 5th round (in this case, Cueto getting off the books safely puts the Giants below the tax line, which is raising anyway).

 

[calsnowskier]

It's more what teams lose for signing a player that was completely overhauled, but the compensation for the teams losing a player still changed a little bit.

If a team loses a player and they sign for more than $50M (in total value), the team gets a comp pick which is in between the 1st and 2nd round (like it is now, except with the $50M wrinkle thrown in). If the player they lose signs for less than $50M, the team gets a comp pick which falls in between the 2nd and 3rd round. If a team is over the luxury tax line, they get a comp pick too, but it's in between the 4th and 5th round (in this case, Cueto getting off the books safely puts the Giants below the tax line, which is raising anyway).

Are QOs still needed, or is that across the board?

 

[SFGRTB]

Are QOs still needed, or is that across the board?

Still needed, because the penalties still apply.

Revenue sharing teams (us) lose their 2nd and 5th highest picks, and $1M from the INTL bonus pool (which is already pretty low for big market teams, now).

Revenue gaining teams (small markets) lose their 3rd highest pick for signing a player offered a QO.

Teams that don't gain or pay into the pool (I have no clue who this applies to. The A's?) lose their 2nd highest pick and $500K from the INTL bonus pool.

 

[SF11704]

As a long time Giant fan (60+ years in total) this is a very difficult year for us .... fans. As most of us agree ... I think we will be 'sellers' this year. I'm just not sure what our final intentions regarding the 2018 season really are and I think that will dictate a lot of what we do now and in the coming off season.

IMHO - I don't believe that we are missing just a 'few' (1 or 2) pieces to the puzzle. We've been in this state since the ASB of 2016. We have played below 500 ball for quite some time now. For whatever the reasons we seem to have one of the most ineffective offenses in all of baseball. Not sure why but it has been this way for almost a full baseball season (2016 and 2017 combined). Our pitching has been so-so but not what I was hoping for. So ... the real question that has to be answered by 'ownership' is what do we do moving forward. Try and cobble together a solution or do we just rebuild? Very difficult choice because I think we are missing much more than just 1 or 2 pieces. But, how many pieces are we missing? I don't think we can call this a 'team slump'. From my perspective ... I'm not sure we even know what's wrong other than nothing seems to be working well ..... offense is missing and pitching is inconsistent.

Going into the ASB buyers are looking for that missing piece to put them 'over the top' and sellers are looking for value in return. Just what do we really have that is valuable and that we are willing to part with? That I think will depend on the direction we want or have to take. As a seller we need to get decent prospects in return ... OR ... we need to dump salary so we can work within the FA market to fill some of these 'missing pieces'. We need decent prospects or salary relief.

Looking at the team as a business is rather interesting .... one of our most valuable 'selling/trading' chips is Bum. Horrible thought, but it is a fact. Maybe our only true blue chip commodity (other than Buster). The real question is ... What is his true value to us if we can't resolve all of our other issues? With our team the way it is constructed I don't think Bum can bring us another title all by himself. Makes you wonder what he could really fetch if you held on to him until the December meetings. What type of offense power (and number of players) would a 15-18 game winner fetch in today's market. If we do trade some of our SP (Cuerto and Scrabble) then that leaves Bum all by himself again and then the SP will become a factor moving forward. Puts us on a very slippery slope again.

I guess .... for me ... the question is .... can we really move forward without rebuilding and if we have to ... to what extent ....

I just don't want to be on this board in 2018 .... and have us all discussing this same exact topic again .... I can deal with a team rebuild and the loss of some of my favorite players as long as ownership/management gives us an idea of what they are doing and how they plan on approaching the future. I personally don't want to repeat the last few years of the Barry Bonds era. It was always my opinion that they just put a bunch of declining veterans around him and we were given a team that was considered to be competitive at best.

Sorry for the length of this post ..... end of rant ....

 

[calsnowskier]

Selling .Bum is an interesting idea. If this team isn't just around the corner, than Bums value (critical time, big games) is going to wasted here. The problem is that selling him now would be selling low. If this is a whole-sale rebuild, the time to trade Bum is either in the off season or at the deadline in '18.

The strategy taken by the team in the draft this year has been making me think that the org is of the opinion that this will be a longer-term rebuild than we would like to believe. We won't be seeing any help from this class for a while.

I am still of the opinion, though, that Panik may be the best piece to trade. He just needs to find his bat again to be REALLY valuable.

 

[calsnowskier]

Let's forget about trades for a second. What kind of rebuild is needed here? What do we have, in house, that can help this team contend in the next 1-3 years (2018-2020)?

1) Bumgarner - he is still a beast. But he has a lot of miles on his arm and he will not be cheap much longer.

2) Posey - He is arguably having his best season this year. He may need to move to 1B (or 3B, Mays) in the future, but that is not in the foreseeable future.

3) Crawford - his bat is taking a bit of a step down this year, but his D is still all-world. He does not get the same pub as a half-dozen or so other SS in the game, but he belongs in the discussion for best in the game.

4) Panik - This is his second consecutive bad-bat season. But his glove is truly gold.

5) Belt - I am not convinced he is a MAJOR contributor to a championship team, but his advanced metrics do tend give nerds stiffies.

We have some kids (Arroyo, Slater, McParker, Shaw, Beede, Gomez, etc), but none af them are established as anything to build around yet. We also have Sammy who is signed for the time frame in question, but will he be a 3+ SP past next year? Moore? Is he even worth mentioning?

If we truly only have these 5 players as the core of another run, is this core worth keeping?

Or do we light the dynamite now and run for cover?

 

[Hangman]

The state of this team is that we suck this year. We should sell off some vet who might help out a playoff team. I like so many of our players its like a double edge sword getting rid of players who were so important in winning world series titles, but its ether sell now or be a mediocre team for a while.

 

[lasportzphan]

Is this the worst Giants team over the last thirty years? I cannot remember a team this bad.

 

[calsnowskier]

Is this the worst Giants team over the last thirty years? I cannot remember a team this bad.

Yup. 1985 was the worst Giants team ever, and this team is on pace to be worse.

 

[SFGRTB]

Let's forget about trades for a second. What kind of rebuild is needed here? What do we have, in house, that can help this team contend in the next 1-3 years (2018-2020)?

1) Bumgarner - he is still a beast. But he has a lot of miles on his arm and he will not be cheap much longer.

2) Posey - He is arguably having his best season this year. He may need to move to 1B (or 3B, Mays) in the future, but that is not in the foreseeable future.

3) Crawford - his bat is taking a bit of a step down this year, but his D is still all-world. He does not get the same pub as a half-dozen or so other SS in the game, but he belongs in the discussion for best in the game.

4) Panik - This is his second consecutive bad-bat season. But his glove is truly gold.

5) Belt - I am not convinced he is a MAJOR contributor to a championship team, but his advanced metrics do tend give nerds stiffies.

We have some kids (Arroyo, Slater, McParker, Shaw, Beede, Gomez, etc), but none af them are established as anything to build around yet. We also have Sammy who is signed for the time frame in question, but will he be a 3+ SP past next year? Moore? Is he even worth mentioning?

If we truly only have these 5 players as the core of another run, is this core worth keeping?

Or do we light the dynamite now and run for cover?

It's interesting to think how we would be talking about Bum if he was healthy right now. He's not a complete game changer this season, maybe we have 5-6 more wins at best (and that's probably generous, since I'm accounting for his mere presence as wins on days he doesn't start). He would fetch A LOTTTTTTTTTTTT. Like we could could probably get Gleyber Torres, Clint Fraizer, and Albert Abreu from the Yankees, at least. As it is, I don't think the Giants will actively entertain offers for him.

Posey just isn't going anywhere, IMO. He's a lifer. Even if we suck and rebuild, Posey will stick around to be a poster child and usher in a new era. (Maybe Craw is in this group too. Maybe)

I think this is about what we can expect from Panik with the bat, maybe a bit higher BA. Overall, he's be ML average with the bat (maybe up-ticking a bit for 2nd basemen). The glove being spectacular obviously though.

The big decision the Giants have to make though is your question. I'm glad I don't have to make it because it's a tough decision. Do they try to go for it again with a core that's still in it's prime? Seems like an easy question, yes you do. But if that core fails then you find yourself in a Phillies situation where you're spending 2-3 years just getting rid of the old players and then another 2-3 years acquiring talent and another 1-2 years ushering talent into the majors before you can compete. They're at a spot right now where they can trade some of their players in their primes and get pretty good talent and maybe cheat a couple of the rebuilding years. We have a number of prospects that are close to the majors right now too, so if they make some savvy trades, you could be looking at a really young team in 2-3 years with Posey still around.

The major problem with this is many fans will be pissed. Season ticket holders will leave, the "sellout streak" (still a complete joke) will officially end, and it'll be a tough sell to casual fans. The Giants were lucky and masked a rebuild with Barry Bonds chasing history, which drew plenty of attention. Then they were really lucky with Lincecum being ready and winning a Cy Young in 08/09 while they were in the final stages of a rebuild. This group doesn't really have that. Posey isn't chasing any history. So a compete overhaul will be a tough sell to ownership.

I remain on the fence, but I would be okay with a total overhaul I think.

 

[Pattersonca65]

Let's forget about trades for a second. What kind of rebuild is needed here? What do we have, in house, that can help this team contend in the next 1-3 years (2018-2020)?

1) Bumgarner - he is still a beast. But he has a lot of miles on his arm and he will not be cheap much longer.

2) Posey - He is arguably having his best season this year. He may need to move to 1B (or 3B, Mays) in the future, but that is not in the foreseeable future.

3) Crawford - his bat is taking a bit of a step down this year, but his D is still all-world. He does not get the same pub as a half-dozen or so other SS in the game, but he belongs in the discussion for best in the game.

4) Panik - This is his second consecutive bad-bat season. But his glove is truly gold.

5) Belt - I am not convinced he is a MAJOR contributor to a championship team, but his advanced metrics do tend give nerds stiffies.

We have some kids (Arroyo, Slater, McParker, Shaw, Beede, Gomez, etc), but none af them are established as anything to build around yet. We also have Sammy who is signed for the time frame in question, but will he be a 3+ SP past next year? Moore? Is he even worth mentioning?

If we truly only have these 5 players as the core of another run, is this core worth keeping?

Or do we light the dynamite now and run for cover?

This is a tough one for me. Do we retool or go in full rebuild mode? What we currently see is not going to work. I would like to see Crawford stay because his defense at short is so good and I think his numbers at the plate will be ok. Wouldn't mind seeing Panik stay too. #2 It might be a good idea to move Posey to first base as a way to prolong his career and minimize injury. I don't have a problem with moving Belt. Turning 30 years old soon and I don't think he is going to be the major contributor we all thought he could become a few years ago.

 

[LHG]

It's interesting to think how we would be talking about Bum if he was healthy right now. He's not a complete game changer this season, maybe we have 5-6 more wins at best (and that's probably generous, since I'm accounting for his mere presence as wins on days he doesn't start). He would fetch A LOTTTTTTTTTTTT. Like we could could probably get Gleyber Torres, Clint Fraizer, and Albert Abreu from the Yankees, at least. As it is, I don't think the Giants will actively entertain offers for him.

Posey just isn't going anywhere, IMO. He's a lifer. Even if we suck and rebuild, Posey will stick around to be a poster child and usher in a new era. (Maybe Craw is in this group too. Maybe)

I think this is about what we can expect from Panik with the bat, maybe a bit higher BA. Overall, he's be ML average with the bat (maybe up-ticking a bit for 2nd basemen). The glove being spectacular obviously though.

The big decision the Giants have to make though is your question. I'm glad I don't have to make it because it's a tough decision. Do they try to go for it again with a core that's still in it's prime? Seems like an easy question, yes you do. But if that core fails then you find yourself in a Phillies situation where you're spending 2-3 years just getting rid of the old players and then another 2-3 years acquiring talent and another 1-2 years ushering talent into the majors before you can compete. They're at a spot right now where they can trade some of their players in their primes and get pretty good talent and maybe cheat a couple of the rebuilding years. We have a number of prospects that are close to the majors right now too, so if they make some savvy trades, you could be looking at a really young team in 2-3 years with Posey still around.

The major problem with this is many fans will be pissed. Season ticket holders will leave, the "sellout streak" (still a complete joke) will officially end, and it'll be a tough sell to casual fans. The Giants were lucky and masked a rebuild with Barry Bonds chasing history, which drew plenty of attention. Then they were really lucky with Lincecum being ready and winning a Cy Young in 08/09 while they were in the final stages of a rebuild. This group doesn't really have that. Posey isn't chasing any history. So a compete overhaul will be a tough sell to ownership.

I remain on the fence, but I would be okay with a total overhaul I think.

I am good with the idea of a major overhaul. The guys are severely underperforming so why hang on to them? However, that also creates the problem of doing an overhaul right now. Many of the guys we are talking about are down in value, so why would the FO want to ship off a bunch of guys for some underwhelming exchange in value? It would be easier to see them traded if a few of them (i.e. Panik, Crawford, Belt) were performing better and could get a better bundle of prospects. Of course, then the team would be performing better and make the FO more reluctant to rebuild.

 

[Pattersonca65]

It's interesting to think how we would be talking about Bum if he was healthy right now. He's not a complete game changer this season, maybe we have 5-6 more wins at best (and that's probably generous, since I'm accounting for his mere presence as wins on days he doesn't start). He would fetch A LOTTTTTTTTTTTT. Like we could could probably get Gleyber Torres, Clint Fraizer, and Albert Abreu from the Yankees, at least. As it is, I don't think the Giants will actively entertain offers for him.

Posey just isn't going anywhere, IMO. He's a lifer. Even if we suck and rebuild, Posey will stick around to be a poster child and usher in a new era. (Maybe Craw is in this group too. Maybe)

I think this is about what we can expect from Panik with the bat, maybe a bit higher BA. Overall, he's be ML average with the bat (maybe up-ticking a bit for 2nd basemen). The glove being spectacular obviously though.

The big decision the Giants have to make though is your question. I'm glad I don't have to make it because it's a tough decision. Do they try to go for it again with a core that's still in it's prime? Seems like an easy question, yes you do. But if that core fails then you find yourself in a Phillies situation where you're spending 2-3 years just getting rid of the old players and then another 2-3 years acquiring talent and another 1-2 years ushering talent into the majors before you can compete. They're at a spot right now where they can trade some of their players in their primes and get pretty good talent and maybe cheat a couple of the rebuilding years. We have a number of prospects that are close to the majors right now too, so if they make some savvy trades, you could be looking at a really young team in 2-3 years with Posey still around.

The major problem with this is many fans will be pissed. Season ticket holders will leave, the "sellout streak" (still a complete joke) will officially end, and it'll be a tough sell to casual fans. The Giants were lucky and masked a rebuild with Barry Bonds chasing history, which drew plenty of attention. Then they were really lucky with Lincecum being ready and winning a Cy Young in 08/09 while they were in the final stages of a rebuild. This group doesn't really have that. Posey isn't chasing any history. So a compete overhaul will be a tough sell to ownership.

I remain on the fence, but I would be okay with a total overhaul I think.

If the FO thinks a total overall is needed, I would go along with it because of what they have accomplished.

 

[SFGRTB]

I am good with the idea of a major overhaul. The guys are severely underperforming so why hang on to them? However, that also creates the problem of doing an overhaul right now. Many of the guys we are talking about are down in value, so why would the FO want to ship off a bunch of guys for some underwhelming exchange in value? It would be easier to see them traded if a few of them (i.e. Panik, Crawford, Belt) were performing better and could get a better bundle of prospects. Of course, then the team would be performing better and make the FO more reluctant to rebuild.

It's not very often team trade position players in-season. It's usually a corner OFer or pitching that gets dealt in-season. So I think a total overhaul wouldn't happen until December. Hopefully by then some of these guys get hot and their trade value is better. But yeah if these guys get hot and the Giants go .600 after the ASB, then we're looking at re-tooling. And maybe that's not a bad thing! It's a conundrum for sure.

Still, these guys are in the middle of their primes so even with a down year, there's always that extra value of bouncing back. Whereas if they wait 3-4 years, they'll be the Pence's/Span's (or to use my Phiilies example, the Howard's/Utley's/Victorino's/Ruiz's) where you get salary relief or C prospects. Right now, if you drum up enough interest, you could get B/A prospects.

 

[calsnowskier]

It's interesting to think how we would be talking about Bum if he was healthy right now. He's not a complete game changer this season, maybe we have 5-6 more wins at best (and that's probably generous, since I'm accounting for his mere presence as wins on days he doesn't start). He would fetch A LOTTTTTTTTTTTT. Like we could could probably get Gleyber Torres, Clint Fraizer, and Albert Abreu from the Yankees, at least. As it is, I don't think the Giants will actively entertain offers for him.

Torres is getting TJ...

 

[SFGRTB]

Torres is getting TJ...

Mac Williamson has TJ once.

Torres's TJ is to his non-throwing elbow too.

 

[calsnowskier]

Mac Williamson has TJ once.

Torres's TJ is to his non-throwing elbow too.

Still a year of lost development.

 

[SFGRTB]

Still a year of lost development.

20 years old in AAA. I think he'll be fine.

 

[stanford the manford]

like i've opined before... i believe this is a 5yr+ rebuild to be competitive in the nl west on a consistent basis

given that (and i'll give it to myself), you have to believe the bochy and the coaching staff (including bam-bam) and likely sabean will be gone. so you need to know how a new regime will want to shape the team. maybe they go with the current keep-the-line-moving, pitching and defense approach or maybe not. lots of teams are winning at att with a power team

it will be hard to set a long term strategy in place when there will be a coaching and fo turnover (again imo)

however, there's very few players on this roster who'll be a long term contributors in the 2020s. other than arroyo i don't think anyone is sacred. i'd play for the long term and stack the minors at this point (assuming the fo knows how to do this). clear cap where possible and build from the inside.

under any circumstances DO NOT bring in another high priced vet who's on the downside of their career. give the fans something to hope for. we've weathered down seasons before, but we've usually had some unique personalities to root for... sadly those are lacking today.

the organization has coasted on the allure of att and that's way past it's stale date. season ticket holders are not showing up and ticket re-sale value is in the toilet.

something needs to change and its up to the giants to get a strategy in place and communicate it.

 

[SFGRTB]

like i've opined before... i believe this is a 5yr+ rebuild to be competitive in the nl west on a consistent basis

given that (and i'll give it to myself), you have to believe the bochy and the coaching staff (including bam-bam) and likely sabean will be gone. so you need to know how a new regime will want to shape the team. maybe they go with the current keep-the-line-moving, pitching and defense approach or maybe not. lots of teams are winning at att with a power team

it will be hard to set a long term strategy in place when there will be a coaching and fo turnover (again imo)

however, there's very few players on this roster who'll be a long term contributors in the 2020s. other than arroyo i don't think anyone is sacred. i'd play for the long term and stack the minors at this point (assuming the fo knows how to do this). clear cap where possible and build from the inside.

under any circumstances DO NOT bring in another high priced vet who's on the downside of their career. give the fans something to hope for. we've weathered down seasons before, but we've usually had some unique personalities to root for... sadly those are lacking today.

the organization has coasted on the allure of att and that's way past it's stale date. season ticket holders are not showing up and ticket re-sale value is in the toilet.

something needs to change and its up to the giants to get a strategy in place and communicate it.

Ummm... What? 3 rings?


Anyway, that last part is a big hurdle if they go full re-build. If they re-tool, they'll be able to prolong the inevitable but keep fans coming back. If they go full re-build the season ticket holders will stay home. That's honestly one of the biggest factors they'll have to discuss with ownership.

If the Giants go full re-build, Bochy will retire or move on, no doubt. Probably Raggs too. Wotus probably take the helm in this case. I don't think it's likely the FO get's overhauled though. Bobby Evans is the guy. They are deeply rooted in the organization with guys who have been around for a long time and I doubt that will change. Sabean has taken a hands off approach since the end of 2014. Even if he leaves, it's not the GM leaving, and I don't think Sabean will leave.