State of the Team

[LHG]

Top 10 MLB 1st baseman = top third. Not a huge endorsement. And actually, there are usually fewer than 30 1B who qualify, so it may be closer to only top 1/2...

Not quite. I set the sort to 350 plate appearances and narrowed the search to 1st base. It brings up 28 hitters for 2016. Of those 28, Belt ranks 7th in OPS and 5th in WAR.

 

[SFGRTB]

I am not a hater. I really like Belt and want him to succeed but he seems to go on these very long slumps. He is a really good defensive player, but to me seems to inconsistent at the plate.

What baseball player DOESN'T go through streaks?

We all seem to remember the bad more than the good, but for whatever reason people remember Belt's bad more than other players.

 

[Pattersonca65]

What baseball player DOESN'T go through streaks?

We all seem to remember the bad more than the good, but for whatever reason people remember Belt's bad more than other players.

Yes, they all do. But Belt's seem to be more protracted. I didn't mean for this to just be about Belt as there are a number of vets. If this season continues this way and we end up with a disappointing finish offensively, then I am just wondering if it is time to reevaluate some of the vets and head into more of a rebuild mode.

 

[calsnowskier]

Assets

Posey - If not THE best catcher in the game, he is one of the best in the game. His contract may be a detriment, but he is an elite talent. If he were to be traded, the Giants may need to eat a little contract, but they would receive a kings ransom in return. Ain't happening. He is a Giant for the foreseeable future.

Belt - A solid player, but I fear his contract may make it tough to move him if the Giants were so inclined. I doubt they would be able to get what they feel he is worth anyway. I do think he is "on the table", though.

Panik - Low cost, controllable, protectable bat, elite defense... IF the Giants want to free room in the infield for the kids in the system (Arroyo, Jones, Howard, etc), he may be the sweet spot of return vs expendibility. I think the Giants could get a LOT for him. Like a top 10 prospect type. Maybe more.

Crawford - One of the elite SS in the game. His offense is a bit down this year, but not by a huge factor. His defense may actually be getting better. And he is a field general. But he is worth more to the Giants than to any other team because of his back story. But have the Giants really done much to monetize that? Maybe I am applying too much value to that. He has a big contract, but I don't think that should be a problem due to the level of play he provides. I doubt he is going anywhere, though.

Nunez - He has a rep as a super util, but his performance doesn't really correspond. His 3B D is average at best, and he is pretty much sub-par everywhere else. His speed CAN be game changing, if it were ever used. He is a streaky hitter, but I think that is more par-for-the-course than many of us would admit. I am not sure the return for him would be enough to get excited for a sale on him. But I do expect him to be traded.

Pence - He does not qualify for 10/5 until the trade deadline, but that doesn't matter since he has a full no-trade written into his contract. I doubt he wants to go anywhere. And he isn't playing nearly well enough (when he plays) to encourage another team to do what needs to be done to get him to waive it. He ain't going anywhere.

Span - he is actually playing quite well WHEN HE PLAYS. He will make 9M in '18 has a 12/4 mutual option for '19. That isn't too daunting a contract for a team who needs an infusion to take on. He won't pull a major prospect, though he could get a package of multiple top 150s.

Cueto - The Spector of his opt-in given the year he is having may make him untradable. But if you get a team that is interested, and the blisters are not an issue, he could still pull 2 top 50s plus some filler. Time will tell on him.

Sammy - Still has 3/54 left on his deal AFTER 2017. And he has a limited no-trade (he declares 8 teams he "may" be traded to - no idea when these were declared or who they are). If he can extend his May out through June, he may have a value similar to what he had a couple years ago. But I doubt the Giants are looking to move him. Keep an eye on the Cubs re-acquiring him, though. They need rotation help, and they have a history with Sammy. I have no idea what their farm looks like, though.

Moore - Durty Jr? Incredibly inconsistent, and his control has become a real problem. He has a 9/1 in '18 and a 10/.75 in '19. For a 3 or 4 starter, that is a bargain, and he has some SERIOUS upside. The Giants (theoretically) paid a lot to get him last year, and I suspect they are not interested in flipping him. I am not sure he would fetch a comparable package to what the Giants spent last year.

Melancon - The contract may make him tough to trade, but I doubt that matters. The Giants will want to compete in '18 and they will need an anchor to make that happen. He ain't going anywhere. Unless the reliever market gets like it was last year. Than the Giants will HAVE to shop him and see if they can get a couple 75s for him.

 

[Stokes1931]

State of the team? I'd say North Dakota. In January.

 

[calsnowskier]

Hundley may also be worth a B-level prospect in a trade. Decent bat who knows how to handle pitchers.

 

[tzill]

I seriously doubt Evans is going to reverse the culture and start selling players.

 

[calsnowskier]

I seriously doubt Evans is going to reverse the culture and start selling players.

It won't be a fire sale, but there needs to be a few strategic sales.

Cueto and Nunez are the obvious targets with Hundley being another possibility.

Panik may be the shocker though. We have a logjam in the infield at the upper minors, and as I have stated before, Panik could fetch a shit ton.

 

[Pattersonca65]

It won't be a fire sale, but there needs to be a few strategic sales.

Cueto and Nunez are the obvious targets with Hundley being another possibility.

Panik may be the shocker though. We have a logjam in the infield at the upper minors, and as I have stated before, Panik could fetch a shit ton.

The team hasn't performed well including the 2nd half of last season. Not expecting a big fire sale, but at what point do we have to start making some significant changes instead of just minor tweaks? This group isn't getting it done offensively and it seems a couple of these vets are getting injured all the time.

 

[stanford the manford]

The team hasn't performed well including the 2nd half of last season. Not expecting a big fire sale, but at what point do we have to start making some significant changes instead of just minor tweaks? This group isn't getting it done offensively and it seems a couple of these vets are getting injured all the time.

they have a massive payroll to manage down, don't expect anything drastic. it's a 5-7 yr re-build.. sabean and bochy won't be here to reap the benefits, so we're not only rebuilding the team, but searching for a new management structure. as a giants fan since '62, i've been here b'fore and it's a long slow process.

 

[calsnowskier]

they have a massive payroll to manage down, don't expect anything drastic. it's a 5-7 yr re-build.. sabean and bochy won't be here to reap the benefits, so we're not only rebuilding the team, but searching for a new management structure. as a giants fan since '62, i've been here b'fore and it's a long slow process.

I am not convinced that the rebuild needs to be bottom to top. This year is a case of perfect storm. Everyone (except Posey) is pretty much having a down year. Moving forward, we still have Posey, Craw and Panik (unless he is traded) who are all serious assets. We also have Bum, Sammy and Moore. That is a decent, potentially elite, top 3 of a rotation. We also have unproven assets in Arroyo, Beede and Shaw, and solid assets (but probably more valuable as trade pieces) in Belt, Cueto and Melancon.

With just a couple trades (Cueto, Nunez, maybe Panik and/or Belt) and maybe a decent FA OFer next year (I am not sure who is available), we should be right back into the WC hunt next year, with another stud prospect or two entering the system in next years draft.

 

[msgkings322]

I am not convinced that the rebuild needs to be bottom to top. This year is a case of perfect storm. Everyone (except Posey) is pretty much having a down year. Moving forward, we still have Posey, Craw and Panik (unless he is traded) who are all serious assets. We also have Bum, Sammy and Moore. That is a decent, potentially elite, top 3 of a rotation. We also have unproven assets in Arroyo, Beede and Shaw, and solid assets (but probably more valuable as trade pieces) in Belt, Cueto and Melancon.

With just a couple trades (Cueto, Nunez, maybe Panik and/or Belt) and maybe a decent FA OFer next year (I am not sure who is available), we should be right back into the WC hunt next year, with another stud prospect or two entering the system in next years draft.

I'm having a hard time believing in Moore and Samardjiza these days.

 

[msgkings322]

It is much less stressful when you write off the team's chances this early. If I thought they had a shot I would be upset at every loss.

The problem is, after the NBA Finals I won't have any sports to care about for months.

 

[stanford the manford]

It is much less stressful when you write off the team's chances this early. If I thought they had a shot I would be upset at every loss.

The problem is, after the NBA Finals I won't have any sports to care about for months.

stanford hosting a national seed in college baseball starting tomorrow, surely you can get behind that

 

[calsnowskier]

I'm having a hard time believing in Moore and Samardjiza these days.

Moore, ok.

But Sammy? Have you looked at his recent numbers? Ok, yesterday was a bit rough, but I wonder if he isn't suffering from a concussion. He just knocked noggins with Morse one day prior to that start.

 

[msgkings322]

Moore, ok.

But Sammy? Have you looked at his recent numbers? Ok, yesterday was a bit rough, but I wonder if he isn't suffering from a concussion. He just knocked noggins with Morse one day prior to that start.

He wasn't much last year either. I'm just not seeing it.

 

[calsnowskier]

He wasn't much last year either. I'm just not seeing it.

We aren't asking him to be the Ace. We have Bum for that. And MAYBE Cueto. Or MAYBE Beede. To have Sammy and Moore as 200+ SPs, I think we are fine.

 

[msgkings322]

We aren't asking him to be the Ace. We have Bum for that. And MAYBE Cueto. Or MAYBE Beede. To have Sammy and Moore as 200+ SPs, I think we are fine.

I'm not saying you are wrong, it could work out with them. Right now I just don't have your confidence.

 

[msgkings322]

What's extra sad is, it's been a long time since we were just bad, all year. Even last year with the horrible 2nd half, we made the playoffs and won the playin game and gave the Cubs a scare.

The other odd years we were competitive and had just won a ring and it was fun to watch them.

It's been 3 years now, and this may be the first year since say 2008 when we are just bad, full stop, all year. It's unfamiliar (lately).

 

[SFGRTB]

they have a massive payroll to manage down, don't expect anything drastic. it's a 5-7 yr re-build.. sabean and bochy won't be here to reap the benefits, so we're not only rebuilding the team, but searching for a new management structure. as a giants fan since '62, i've been here b'fore and it's a long slow process.

Pump the breaks there man, this isn't a Phillies type rebuild, many of the core players we have are still in their primes.

If Bochy wants to step aside, I'd be okay with that, but I'm mostly okay with the moves the FO has made.