POLL Realistic Playoff Scenario: Who gets the #4 Spot?

[Across The Field]

Right now ohio state is a clear unadulterated target for an implosion on Saturday at the hands of the Wolverines. However, I can see a good case of they win out.

I do not disagree. This is a large part of why I haven't talked a lot of shit about us blowing you guys out or anything. michigan is gonna be pissed, and OSU is gonna be hungry, so I'm hoping both medical staffs are ready to roll.

 

[Across The Field]

Simple, because Miami and Bama don't have a loss against an unranked team and they'd only have 1 loss and that loss would be against another playoff team or at least a playoff contending team.

Ok, so you're arguing with me before that quality wins shouldn't trump conference titles, but now you're saying quality losses do?

 

[Sgt Brutus]

While any fan would love to see their team in the playoffs..

I just don't think enough was done by the Buckeyes to warrant getting in over ND in the scenario presented. Even Georgia & Miami are a toss up but I say no on them cause I don't think any conference is getting two in this year.

I don't want the players thinking about playoffs either, it's a long shot at #9. The two biggest goals for this team should be
1)beat michigan
2)win the B1G

unfortunately no Rose Bowl this year but I'd love a matchup with USC or Washington in the PAC12

 

[Voltaire26]

I do not disagree. This is a large part of why I haven't talked a lot of shit about us blowing you guys out or anything. michigan is gonna be pissed, and OSU is gonna be hungry, so I'm hoping both medical staffs are ready to roll.

I want a good game with no injuries ... but a couple of cheap shots throw in by both teams.

 

[Yo Tee]

I've never said it doesn't make sense. In fact I've said in numerous threads on here over the last year that it was extremely tight and there were strong arguments on both sides.

The question isn't just quality wins, it's the entire package. The positives for Penn State simply didn't outweigh the negatives. They beat Ohio State, but anyone who watched that game knows it was lopsided as hell and PSU won on an extremely flukey play. They won the conference title, which is just a name. What they accomplished was getting to play a 13th game only because michigan was upset by Iowa. They beat Wisconsin on a neutral field while OSU beat them on the road. OSU rated higher offensively and much higher defensively than PSU, so they went with OSU. Simple as that.

The Conference title is just a name? So if Ohio State wins the conference title, it's no big thing. It's just a name.
You're bullshitting now man.

What cost Penn State the playoff spot last year, in my opinion, was their loss to Pitt. That fucking hurt them, I don't care what anyone says. They don't lose to Pitt, I don't see how the committee doesn't choose them over Ohio State.

 

[kburjr]

I'm not a fan of that. Look at this year. Say OSU loses to michigan and beats Wisconsin. OSU is a 10-3 conference champ. Stanford beats USC, and they're a 9-4 conference champ. Then Bama loses a close game to UGA. Who gets the final playoff spot? These are not crazy possibilities, either. No chance you put Stanford or OSU in over Bama in this scenario.

I already said that the PAC12 is out this year. That leaves you:

ACC: Clemson/Miami
SEC: Alabama/Georgia/Auburn
Big 12: Oklahoma/TCU
B1G: Ohio State/Wisconsin

Winners to the playoffs. With the CCGs as play-ins, you lose you are out.

 

[Across The Field]

I want a good game with no injuries ... but a couple of cheap shots throw in by both teams.

Agreed, but both teams are gonna be out for blood. I wouldn't even be shocked to see an ejection or two. Either way, I don't think we're gonna see a repeat of 2015.

 

[Voltaire26]

While any fan would love to see their team in the playoffs..

I just don't think enough was done by the Buckeyes to warrant getting in over ND in the scenario presented. Even Georgia & Miami are a toss up but I say no on them cause I don't think any conference is getting two in this year.

I don't want the players thinking about playoffs either, it's a long shot at #9. The two biggest goals for this team should be
1)beat michigan
2)win the B1G

unfortunately no Rose Bowl this year but I'd love a matchup with USC or Washington in the PAC12

The rest is really out of your hands. You can't change the Oklahoma & Iowa games. Just like we can't change the Penn State game (the only game I am really embarrassed about this year).

 

[Yo Tee]

Ok, so you're arguing with me before that quality wins shouldn't trump conference titles, but now you're saying quality losses do?

My argument was for teams in the same conference. For instance, PSU won the conference title, should've probably been chosen over OSU for the playoff. But when comparing teams in different conferences, it gets a little less easy to decipher who should be ahead of who.

 

[Voltaire26]

Agreed, but both teams are gonna be out for blood. I wouldn't even be shocked to see an ejection or two. Either way, I don't think we're gonna see a repeat of 2015.

It adds to the rivalry "Embrace the Hate"

 

[Across The Field]

The Conference title is just a name? So if Ohio State wins the conference title, it's no big thing. It's just a name.
You're bullshitting now man.

What cost Penn State the playoff spot last year, in my opinion, was their loss to Pitt. That fucking hurt them, I don't care what anyone says. They don't lose to Pitt, I don't see how the committee doesn't choose them over Ohio State.

In the minds of the committee last year, it was. All PSU did was beat a team on a neutral field that OSU had already beaten on the road and by the same amount, so what was the major accomplishment that puts PSU so far ahead? And I don't disagree about the Pitt comment. However, it came down to the total body of work, beginning of the season to the end, and OSU had put together a better season. Again, another thing to look at is without the Iowa upset of michigan, Ohio State is playing Wisconsin for the CCG, so you could make a very clear argument that PSU was lucky to even have the chance to play in the CCG.

 

[Across The Field]

My argument was for teams in the same conference. For instance, PSU won the conference title, should've probably been chosen over OSU for the playoff. But when comparing teams in different conferences, it gets a little less easy to decipher who should be ahead of who.

How so?

 

[Across The Field]

I already said that the PAC12 is out this year. That leaves you:

ACC: Clemson/Miami
SEC: Alabama/Georgia/Auburn
Big 12: Oklahoma/TCU
B1G: Ohio State/Wisconsin

Winners to the playoffs. With the CCGs as play-ins, you lose you are out.

So 10-3 OSU over 11-1 Alabama? Even I don't agree with that.

 

[Yo Tee]

How so?

For instance, if Bama beast Auburn but loses to Georgia, how do you compare Bama and OSU to see who gets a playoff spot? Also, If Clemson beats Miami, does Ohio State get chosen over Miami just because of their conference championship? Does the Iowa loss get voided out if Ohio State wins the B1G title? Also, if Oklahoma loses to TCU, who gets preferential treatment? Ohio State or the team that beat them in Oklahoma? Lots of things to factor in if those scenarios come true.

 

[kburjr]

So 10-3 OSU over 11-1 Alabama? Even I don't agree with that.

Bama has their shot. Win the game.

 

[Sgt Brutus]

I want a good game with no injuries ... but a couple of cheap shots throw in by both teams.

I hope Harbaugh has his 'freak the fuck out' moments

 

[NolePride]

Miami gets the 4th spot in that scenario.

Entering that weekend...Miami would be #3...
Whisky would still be #5
UGA would have moved to #6
N Dame would have moved to #7

Miami would have been beaten
Whisky beaten
UGA beaten
N Dame wouldn't have played.

It would be extremely difficult to drop Miami below a team they had recently
beaten by 33 points. Now, I'm not saying the committee wouldn't do that, they
probably would, but it's gonna be a hard sell.

Whisky would have been at #5 because the committee doesn't believe in them in the
first place or they'd already be in the top 4 @12-0.

If the committee doesn't believe in Whisky, how could they possibly bump Ohio State
up 5 spots. OSU is a two loss team that won't pass Miami or a two-loss Georgia team.

 

[Across The Field]

For instance, if Bama beast Auburn but loses to Georgia, how do you compare Bama and OSU to see who gets a playoff spot? Also, If Clemson beats Miami, does Ohio State get chosen over Miami just because of their conference championship? Does the Iowa loss get voided out if Ohio State wins the B1G title? Also, if Oklahoma loses to TCU, who gets preferential treatment? Ohio State or the team that beat them in Oklahoma? Lots of things to factor in if those scenarios come true.

1. If Alabama beats Auburn and loses to UGA, they'll have a legit argument over Ohio State. I won't argue that.

2. If Miami loses, OSU gets in not only because of their conference title, but because their resume is better overall in regards to better and more ranked wins. Couple that with the fact that Miami has struggled mightily against so many bad teams, OSU gets the nod.

3. If Oklahoma loses to TCU, why does TCU get the nod? They also lost to Oklahoma, and by more. They were just the ones who got to play in a rematch. If we beat an unranked Wisconsin, why would TCU get to jump ~5-6 spots ahead of us?

 

[Yo Tee]

1. If Alabama beats Auburn and loses to UGA, they'll have a legit argument over Ohio State. I won't argue that.

2. If Miami loses, OSU gets in not only because of their conference title, but because their resume is better overall in regards to better and more ranked wins. Couple that with the fact that Miami has struggled mightily against so many bad teams, OSU gets the nod.

3. If Oklahoma loses to TCU, why does TCU get the nod? They also lost to Oklahoma, and by more. They were just the ones who got to play in a rematch. If we beat an unranked Wisconsin, why would TCU get to jump ~5-6 spots ahead of us?

Sorry, for scenario #3, I was thinking between Ohio State and Oklahoma. Both teams have losses against unranked teams, both teams have 2 losses. 1 team has a conference title and 1 team has a win over the other. There's so many scenarios to the point where there are probably 8 playoff potential teams. Clemson, Miami, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, Oklahoma, OSU and Wisconsin.

 

[BamaDude]

So let's say all of the upsets are done for this year, and each team favored to win, actually does.

Therefore you would have.

Alabama - Beat Auburn, Beats UGA in the SEC Championship Game

Oklahoma - Beats WVU, and wins BIG XII CG

Clemson - Beat South Carolina and beats Miami in ACC Championship Game

But who gets the 4th spot?

So, you are basing this scenario on Alabama, Oklahoma & Clemson winning the rest of their games, with Wisconsin falling to Ohio St. in the B-10 championship game & Miami losing to Clemson in the ACC title game, with Notre Dame & USC also winning all their remaining games?

It is unlikely that Ohio St., Southern Cal, Notre Dame or Georgia get in with two losses apiece, so go ahead & mark them off your list of probabilities. If Miami loses a close contest against Clemson, then the Hurricanes are likely the 4th team in. But, if one of those two wins in a blowout, then that would eliminate a second team from the ACC getting in. The Badgers might be able to get in even with a close loss in the Big 10 title game, but a one-sided defeat would mean no Big 10 team in the playoffs - which might not be a bad thing considering their last two representatives lost their playoff games by overwhelming margins without denting the scoreboard.

This could leave the door open for an unbeaten Central Florida team to become the first G-5 program to reach the playoffs. Another scenario you apparently haven't considered is that Wisconsin could run the table & finish 13-0, thereby knocking the loser of the Miami-Clemson game out of the playoffs.