Over/Under win totals

[fastforward]

Lock takes fewer sacks than Wilson did, but he has more serious flaws. Smith was a sack waiting to happen last season.

 

[Tapey]

Lock takes fewer sacks than Wilson did, but he has more serious flaws. Smith was a sack waiting to happen last season.

Yea but also RW is a giant bitch boy so it all evens out.

 

[Southieinnc]

Yea but also RW is a giant bitch boy so it all evens out.

Sour Grapes much? This is not at all true.....

 

[dtgold88]

View attachment 296383

Pick an over and under win team.

I'll do 2 of each

Over - Steelers, NO
Under - Denver, AZ

 

[dtgold88]

Still risky. The Bengals improved their OL but I expect their defense to go back to normal, they played above expectations. The Ravens still have a legit defense and running game. The Browns improved their roster, obviously depends on the Watson suspension. The Steelers still have a top defense and probably the best offense in the division other than QB. I expect a ceiling bc of the QB but they always seem to squeak out wins. I would go under Cincy but I think that is a toss-up too.

SB runner up thought Cinci might be at least 10.5 and I'd like the under for sure. Still like it at 9.5 but that's close. agree on Steelers......they have had issues and still always manage to finish .500 or better....no Big Ben this time, but not sure how much he helped last year and they were still solid.

 

[dtgold88]

It'll be a long annoying season but the long game is to get that QoF and get back to making noise in the playoffs.

Saw my team tank for 2 seasons and it worked.....well, would have worked better if they nailed the reward of the #1 pick.

 

[dtgold88]

Can you say Ryan Leaf?

Be careful what you wish for.

You never know what you're going to get.

I never want to see my team lose. But, I understand where others might.

If ya feel like you are a QB away and a QB heavy draft is coming it's better to go, say, 2-14 than win 5-6.

That said, it's hard to watch my team and cheer against them. I'm usually fine with the many losses I've witnessed AFTER the game, though.

 

[dtgold88]

Prop bet.


Who gets more wins NY Jets and Giants or Buffalo?

Don't love either side but I'd go Jets/NYG

 

[dtgold88]

I think the defense may have played a bit above station, but not by a ton.

Hendrickson was a big F/A signing. Reader missed 2020, and finally saw the impact he was when he was signed as a F/A as one of the top NT's in the game. Hubbard has always been solid, so the DL has been pretty set. That's also not including losing Ossai and another guy in the pre-season who were expected to be a big part of the rotation that were lost for the season. They resigned Hill who was a big part of that DT rotation as well.

Wilson was a solid pick at MLB, and showed why in year 2 and looks to be getting better, and Awuzie a solid CB. Bates and Bell make up a pretty solid back end to the secondary, and you can argue that Bate's regular season was actually below par.

The one big area that the Bengals got was a career type year out of Apple - Expecting another season of that, is folly - I agree - but they did address that in the draft, while also adding some good depth both at Safety and along the DL. I still would have loved to have seen another CB signed...I don't trust Apple.

Also - the offensive improvement should be more than any step back the defense should take. The OL and Burrow get the focus of the changes in F/A - but don't forget they also have Mixon. Adding those 3 guys along the OL just made Mixon that much more scary - and that really balances out the offense as a whole. Burrow gets the immediate protection, but honestly, I think the break-out of this year could be Mixon as with the improved OL play and teams looking to stop Chase, Boyd, Higgins and Hurst in the passing game.

All of that being said - 9.5 is too close for me to touch. I think they'll go over at 10 and maaaaybe11 wins...but that's really close with the Ravens being healthy this year, and a tougher schedule (at least at this point - a long way to go before games are actually played).

I'd only add cannot expect the same injury luck. Could happen, of course.

 

[Manster7588]

Don't love either side but I'd go Jets/NYG

Me too, but it will be close.

 

[dtgold88]

I mostly agree, but there are no guarentees. A team could tank, end up with the #1 pick who could be a bust or the team could still be bad. Then you risk years or mediocrity or worse.

In Seattle's case why let Bobby Wags walk, while signing Dizzly to a dizzing contract?

while I wouldn't mind it I could see not wanting to tank if you think your team has at least an outside shot at the playoffs with, say, 7-8 wins a near lock.

However, having seen my team not tank the right way then finally do a full blown tank I prefer the latter. No reason to sign the Donte Whitners of the world to maybe win 4-6 games. I'd rather bottom out.

Will say I'd guess many coaches/GMs wouldn't have the stomach for that.

 

[dtgold88]

Selecting the WRONG rookie QB is the worst thing a franchise can do. It is why tanking is such a dangerous game in the NFL and really should be avoided at all costs. Taking the wrong QB means 3-4 years AT LEAST of bottom QB play. Because that is how many seasons a franchise has to play the QB in order to make sure that the guy can/cant play.

But the chance of pulling out the next Allen, Mahomes out of the draft is just too much of a draw to GM's not to have them take some crazy risks. And they do it knowing full well that if they pull out a true franchise QB out of the draft that they are basically guaranteeing themselves a job for another 10 years at least. Look at Green Bay. They havent fired a GM in something like 40 years now because of the Favre to Rodger hand off.

while I agree you want a guy like that, ironically, Allen went 6th (but the 3rd QB taken) and Mahomes 12 (also 3rd taken).

IF teams really believe Stroud and/or Bryce are as advertised it's worth the tank, IMO. Not sure I'd have done it for either of the last 2 drafts

 

[Tapey]

Sour Grapes much? This is not at all true.....

Oh it for sure is true

 

[Cincyfan78]

I'd only add cannot expect the same injury luck. Could happen, of course.

No doubt. Staying injury free is a big key component, but that is true for any team. It was a bounce back from 2020 when they landed, what seemed, like their entire defense plus Burrow on the IR. At one point they had 7 starters on D missing game action at the same time, with several of those guys lost for the year.

Can they be as lucky next year? We'll see...but I think they have enough depth to sustain injuries in general...now, key positions, like any team, will struggle if those guys go out.

 

[DJ]

RW about to get exposed

Yep.

 

[DJ]

What leads you to say that?

Denver should have the best Oline he's played behind. I give Denver the slight edge in the receiver corps. Lockette made a lot of big catches due to RWs scrambling IMO. RBs hard to say. Seattle put so much stock in their RBs. But most got injured.

The only downside I see is how much mobility has RW lost? He's still mobile but 10 years of NFL hits look they're taking their toll.

Has he put on weight the last few seasons? Is that a factor in his being caught more?

Denver.....seriously? RW had Metcalf, Lockett and Swain in Seattle.....not to mention Jeudy was arrested for beating on his woman.

SMH.

 

[dtgold88]

No doubt. Staying injury free is a big key component, but that is true for any team. It was a bounce back from 2020 when they landed, what seemed, like their entire defense plus Burrow on the IR. At one point they had 7 starters on D missing game action at the same time, with several of those guys lost for the year.

Can they be as lucky next year? We'll see...but I think they have enough depth to sustain injuries in general...now, key positions, like any team, will struggle if those guys go out.

Totally agree. But for sure if one team is near the top in injuries and one near the bottom that's a big help for the team near the bottom (as 2020 and 21 proved)

At the very least, hopefully few if any teams have to deal with Covid related issues this year.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Totally agree. But for sure if one team is near the top in injuries and one near the bottom that's a big help for the team near the bottom (as 2020 and 21 proved)

At the very least, hopefully few if any teams have to deal with Covid related issues this year.

Yep. I think I saw where 4 of the top 5 teams in terms of injuries (least amount of games lost) made the playoffs. Falcons were the lone exception. Bengals were just outside the top 5 at like 6 or 7.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

Denver.....seriously? RW had Metcalf, Lockett and Swain in Seattle.....not to mention Jeudy was arrested for beating on his woman.

SMH.

Sorry, I don't rate Lockett as high as others. Like I mentioned he was a product of the RW scramble. Not totally but a lot of his success came from RW running for his life.
Metcalf and Juedy are a wash IMO. Swain? Come on.

 

[DJ]

Sorry, I don't rate Lockett as high as others. Like I mentioned he was a product of the RW scramble. Not totally but a lot of his success came from RW running for his life.
Metcalf and Juedy are a wash IMO. Swain? Come on.

Stop it. Metcalf is better than Jeudy.

Swain is just 23 and their 3rd receiver. Kid can play, provided he gets balls thrown his way.