Over/Under win totals

[Clayton]

I agree. too many wins in AFC-W...but I'd take the Raiders as the under...I believe they got a little lucky winning some of those games at the end of last year and somebody in that division will be under .500.

There were so many close games last year to close out the season that this whole thing feels a bit like throwing darts without a larger strategy

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Rooting for the Seahawks under. Way under would be excellent.

 

[Manster7588]

Rooting for the Seahawks under. Way under would be excellent.

I completely understand where you're coming from.

 

[Dude]

Random thoughts from AFCE and some NFC teams:

AFCE:
Bills under
Pats over
Miami under
Jets over

NFC:
Giants under
Bucs under
Rams over
Seahawks over

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

I completely understand where you're coming from.

It'll be a long annoying season but the long game is to get that QoF and get back to making noise in the playoffs.

 

[Moab]

I think if you bet every one of them as an under you'd end up a winner...even with the vig...

 

[NWPATSFAN]

It'll be a long annoying season but the long game is to get that QoF and get back to making noise in the playoffs.

Can you say Ryan Leaf?

Be careful what you wish for.

You never know what you're going to get.

I never want to see my team lose. But, I understand where others might.

 

[FaCe-LeE-uS]

That division. Bengals roster got better, Ravens should in theory be healthier, Browns are a big wildcard. Big Ben won a ton of close games. (looking at stats and Im seeing six 4th quarter comebacks and seven game winning drives)

Maybe I'm giving Big Ben too much credit (and Tyreek Hill and Matheiu if I'm counting my own team)

It was a compounding problem on offense last year... OL, OC, & Ben all played a part... It's admirable that Ben was able to have the season he did when he had less than 3 seconds on average to make a play & he just didn't have the legs anymore to buy more time.

The Steelers offense scares the shit out of me TBH. A lot of new parts in the equation. New QB, new RG, new C, new offensive system (that Ben was holding back), new WR coach, new OL coach & run game coordinator... It takes a massive leap of faith to believe that all these new parts will pay off. They have the advantage of unpredictability now, but there will be growing pains. I'd even argue that we've seen plenty of evidence to tell us that this offense will not be as dependable as they want it to be. I'm not buying that Matt Canada is the solution as OC. Miscommunications on nearly every series, and atrocious playcalling during possession downs were the themes of 2021. For as much as we hated Randy Fichtner, that sort of stuff wasn't nearly as bad when he had the job.

I'm in "wait & see" mode on the Steelers this year. I wouldn't buy the over without seeing what this offense looks like week 1. Even the defense has some suspect retooling involved. But Tomlin has made a habit out of finding a way to turn shit into .500-lemonade. Even against the toughest SOS last year. So I'm not necessarily buying that a tough division will keep them down.

 

[fastforward]

Raiders Under would be my pick. 6 tough divisional games plus the NFC West could leave them 3-7 or 4-6. If they're 4-6 they'd still have to win 5 of the other 7, (which includes Colts, Titans, Patriots, Steelers, and Saints). 3-2 in those 5 games isn't unreasonable but I wouldn't give the Raiders a 50% chance to sweep the other 2 AFC South teams.

 

[PDay8810]

3

 

[Southieinnc]

Over: Saints, Falcons, Rams, Bills
Under: Steelers, Jaguars, Chargers, Chiefs

There are too many wins in the AFC West on the board so the opportunity will be in picking two teams. Chargers haven't beaten that over/under since 2018 and thats the only time they've done it in a decade. Chiefs might be looking at the hardest schedule ever and will be relying on a lot of new players. Chiefs getting to 11 wins would be herculean. They've done it before, though, and hopefully will do it again

Chargers being under is a given this year. They are ridiculously over-rated this year at 10 wins
I have already stated that I see KC slipping a little this year but they are rated perfectly at 10.5.
I cannot bet under at 10 wins and cannot bet over at 11 wins. I don't have the balls for either.
Jets at 5.5? Seriously? If you want Jets over, name the 6 wins!

 

[Southieinnc]

 

[That One Guy]

Dallas O/U is set too low. So is the Broncos.
I'll take both those teams over 11.5

 

[Ickey Shuffle]

Jets at 5.5? Seriously? If you want Jets over, name the 6 wins!

Steelers
Bears
Lions
Jaguars
Dolphins x2

 

[Manster7588]

Prop bet.


Who gets more wins NY Jets and Giants or Buffalo?

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Prop bet.


Who gets more wins NY Jets and Giants or Buffalo?

Damn. Now that is interesting

Jersey or New York?

 

[ducky]

The only one that really sticks out to me is the Cowboys being too high. Pretty easy to project 7 total losses when you factor in that they play Tampa, Cinci, Rams, Green Bay, Indy, Tenn (1st place schedule). Right there let's say they go 2-4 through those 6. Well that means they have to go 9-2 in their remaining games (6 of which are division games) to get to the over.

For a team that lost as much as they did this offseason and is sure to see a major regression on defense as 34 turnovers is near impossible to replicate from last year.

Ones I guess I would go with if having to place 5 bets:
Cowboys under.
Cards under (just have a bad feeling about them).
Chargers under (3 teams in the division arent going to finish with 11+ wins and they are the most likely to falter IMO).
Lions over.
Jags over.
Miami over.

But I wouldnt feel great about any of them! Once you start breaking down the schedule for each team, it is hard to find a team here that is obviously off here.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Still risky. The Bengals improved their OL but I expect their defense to go back to normal, they played above expectations. The Ravens still have a legit defense and running game. The Browns improved their roster, obviously depends on the Watson suspension. The Steelers still have a top defense and probably the best offense in the division other than QB. I expect a ceiling bc of the QB but they always seem to squeak out wins. I would go under Cincy but I think that is a toss-up too.

I think the defense may have played a bit above station, but not by a ton.

Hendrickson was a big F/A signing. Reader missed 2020, and finally saw the impact he was when he was signed as a F/A as one of the top NT's in the game. Hubbard has always been solid, so the DL has been pretty set. That's also not including losing Ossai and another guy in the pre-season who were expected to be a big part of the rotation that were lost for the season. They resigned Hill who was a big part of that DT rotation as well.

Wilson was a solid pick at MLB, and showed why in year 2 and looks to be getting better, and Awuzie a solid CB. Bates and Bell make up a pretty solid back end to the secondary, and you can argue that Bate's regular season was actually below par.

The one big area that the Bengals got was a career type year out of Apple - Expecting another season of that, is folly - I agree - but they did address that in the draft, while also adding some good depth both at Safety and along the DL. I still would have loved to have seen another CB signed...I don't trust Apple.

Also - the offensive improvement should be more than any step back the defense should take. The OL and Burrow get the focus of the changes in F/A - but don't forget they also have Mixon. Adding those 3 guys along the OL just made Mixon that much more scary - and that really balances out the offense as a whole. Burrow gets the immediate protection, but honestly, I think the break-out of this year could be Mixon as with the improved OL play and teams looking to stop Chase, Boyd, Higgins and Hurst in the passing game.

All of that being said - 9.5 is too close for me to touch. I think they'll go over at 10 and maaaaybe11 wins...but that's really close with the Ravens being healthy this year, and a tougher schedule (at least at this point - a long way to go before games are actually played).

 

[Jikkle]

Can you say Ryan Leaf?

Be careful what you wish for.

You never know what you're going to get.

I never want to see my team lose. But, I understand where others might.

You pretty much need at least a top 10 QB if you expect to have a legit shot at winning a Super Bowl. Sure teams have won without a top 10 QB but they are typically one and done and not yearly contenders like the Pats were with Brady and now Mahomes with the Chiefs.

I'd rather lose and swing for the fences on QBs till you hit one out than being stuck in an even worse spot where you consistently a 9ish win team that might make the playoffs but has little chance of making it out of the divisional at best.

Like for example in my opinion the Titans are in a terrible spot with Tannehill because he's not terrible or anything but he's not that "guy" so you're going to be constantly stuck coming up short and always drafting late so you're not getting the top tier talent either.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

You pretty much need at least a top 10 QB if you expect to have a legit shot at winning a Super Bowl. Sure teams have won without a top 10 QB but they are typically one and done and not yearly contenders like the Pats were with Brady and now Mahomes with the Chiefs.

I'd rather lose and swing for the fences on QBs till you hit one out than being stuck in an even worse spot where you consistently a 9ish win team that might make the playoffs but has little chance of making it out of the divisional at best.

Like for example in my opinion the Titans are in a terrible spot with Tannehill because he's not terrible or anything but he's not that "guy" so you're going to be constantly stuck coming up short and always drafting late so you're not getting the top tier talent either.

It's a dice game for sure.

Drafting is never a guarentee. Even if you get a quality QB #10 or higher, that's still no guarentee to 1. win a SB or 2. stay competitive.

Look at Seattle with RW. It will be interesting to see how he does in Denver.

The Brady thing is just not human. Coaching and skilled players with great chemistry played a huge part of their success IMHO. The Pats kept getting r*ped for coaches. Loose a couple key players. Cut a few a year early...

But what remained constant besides Brady was BB, decent drafts and a roster with many 2nd tier level guys who were put in place to excel at what they were good at. Only asked to do their job.

BB unlike a lot of GMs built around Brady with a LOT of non sexy picks.

"Life is like a box of chocolates"