Over/Under win totals

[Southieinnc]

You pretty much need at least a top 10 QB if you expect to have a legit shot at winning a Super Bowl. Sure teams have won without a top 10 QB but they are typically one and done and not yearly contenders like the Pats were with Brady and now Mahomes with the Chiefs.

I'd rather lose and swing for the fences on QBs till you hit one out than being stuck in an even worse spot where you consistently a 9ish win team that might make the playoffs but has little chance of making it out of the divisional at best.

Like for example in my opinion the Titans are in a terrible spot with Tannehill because he's not terrible or anything but he's not that "guy" so you're going to be constantly stuck coming up short and always drafting late so you're not getting the top tier talent either.

Titans were who I was thinking of as I was reading your post!

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Under – Dallas, Seattle, Steelers, Tampa, Raiders
Over - Lions

Cowboys – Worse roster than last year. No back/back double-digit win seasons since 95/96. I think they’ll be decent/good again, but not good enough.

Seattle – No QB, tough division, big incentive to tank for a QB, etc. I’d expect most folks to pick the under with Seattle.

Steelers – Division got better. No Big Ben to pull out the close ones, and they had A LOT of close wins last year and too many not-close losses. 7 of their 9 wins were by a TD or less. 5 of the wins were by 3, 5, 2, 1, 6, and 3. OTOH, of their 7 losses, 4 were by double digits (14, 10, 31, 25).

Tampa – The Bucs got worse over the offseason. Lost a PB OG, no A.Brown, Godwin coming off an ACL injury, unsure on Gronk so far, etc. No way they win 12 games.

Raiders – Their division got crazy hard this offseason and they also have to play the other toughest division in football, the NFCW.

Lions - they're the opposite of the Steelers and the only over I'm taking. Just a wild hair b/c they lost so many close games last year and played better than their record indicated. They went 3-13-1 last season, but they lost 7 games by 1 score or less, with 5 of those losses coming by 2, 2, 3, 2, and 4. They also showed improvement when Campbell took the play-calling away from Anthony Lynn in mid November. They come back this year with a better team than last season.


Whatever you do, do not bet SF either way. No telling what the new QB will do. This team is too unpredictable.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Can you say Ryan Leaf?

Be careful what you wish for.

You never know what you're going to get.

I never want to see my team lose. But, I understand where others might.

At this point there's nothing Hawks fans can do but hope they hit on the right QB. Russ wasn't coming back and trading for Baker wasn't going to elevate the team to SB level so have to get bad to get good again.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

At this point there's nothing Hawks fans can do but hope they hit on the right QB. Russ wasn't coming back and trading for Baker wasn't going to elevate the team to SB level so have to get bad to get good again.

I mostly agree, but there are no guarentees. A team could tank, end up with the #1 pick who could be a bust or the team could still be bad. Then you risk years or mediocrity or worse.

In Seattle's case why let Bobby Wags walk, while signing Dizzly to a dizzing contract?

 

[ducky]

I mostly agree, but there are no guarentees. A team could tank, end up with the #1 pick who could be a bust or the team could still be bad. Then you risk years or mediocrity or worse.

In Seattle's case why let Bobby Wags walk, while signing Dizzly to a dizzing contract?

Selecting the WRONG rookie QB is the worst thing a franchise can do. It is why tanking is such a dangerous game in the NFL and really should be avoided at all costs. Taking the wrong QB means 3-4 years AT LEAST of bottom QB play. Because that is how many seasons a franchise has to play the QB in order to make sure that the guy can/cant play.

But the chance of pulling out the next Allen, Mahomes out of the draft is just too much of a draw to GM's not to have them take some crazy risks. And they do it knowing full well that if they pull out a true franchise QB out of the draft that they are basically guaranteeing themselves a job for another 10 years at least. Look at Green Bay. They havent fired a GM in something like 40 years now because of the Favre to Rodger hand off.

 

[Clayton]

Under – Dallas, Seattle, Steelers, Tampa, Raiders
Over - Lions

Cowboys – Worse roster than last year. No back/back double-digit win seasons since 95/96. I think they’ll be decent/good again, but not good enough.

Seattle – No QB, tough division, big incentive to tank for a QB, etc. I’d expect most folks to pick the under with Seattle.

Steelers – Division got better. No Big Ben to pull out the close ones, and they had A LOT of close wins last year and too many not-close losses. 7 of their 9 wins were by a TD or less. 5 of the wins were by 3, 5, 2, 1, 6, and 3. OTOH, of their 7 losses, 4 were by double digits (14, 10, 31, 25).

Tampa – The Bucs got worse over the offseason. Lost a PB OG, no A.Brown, Godwin coming off an ACL injury, unsure on Gronk so far, etc. No way they win 12 games.

Raiders – Their division got crazy hard this offseason and they also have to play the other toughest division in football, the NFCW.

Lions - they're the opposite of the Steelers and the only over I'm taking. Just a wild hair b/c they lost so many close games last year and played better than their record indicated. They went 3-13-1 last season, but they lost 7 games by 1 score or less, with 5 of those losses coming by 2, 2, 3, 2, and 4. They also showed improvement when Campbell took the play-calling away from Anthony Lynn in mid November. They come back this year with a better team than last season.


Whatever you do, do not bet SF either way. No telling what the new QB will do. This team is too unpredictable.

Niners are a 'no bet' for sure. If Lance crosses some year 2 QB hurdle and Deebo is playing well then they are scary. Could swing pretty wildly the other way, too.

AFC West is interesting. Raiders went all in on the stars but they're still bad at the things they were bad at last year. Probably 2 holes on Oline, probably 2 holes in the secondary. The Chiefs really tore up the Raiders last year and the Raiders didnt pivot away from that roster. I suspect other teams will attempt to attack those same Raiders weaknesses if able. Chiefs noticed that everyone had a gameplan against them and went a different direction. They look less impressive on paper but maybe just doing something new is what stays ahead of the game.

 

[jarntt]

I put a bunch of bets in before the draft. Rams over was my biggest bet

 

[Southieinnc]

Under – Dallas, Seattle, Steelers, Tampa, Raiders
Over - Lions

Cowboys – Worse roster than last year. No back/back double-digit win seasons since 95/96. I think they’ll be decent/good again, but not good enough.

Seattle – No QB, tough division, big incentive to tank for a QB, etc. I’d expect most folks to pick the under with Seattle.

Steelers – Division got better. No Big Ben to pull out the close ones, and they had A LOT of close wins last year and too many not-close losses. 7 of their 9 wins were by a TD or less. 5 of the wins were by 3, 5, 2, 1, 6, and 3. OTOH, of their 7 losses, 4 were by double digits (14, 10, 31, 25).

Tampa – The Bucs got worse over the offseason. Lost a PB OG, no A.Brown, Godwin coming off an ACL injury, unsure on Gronk so far, etc. No way they win 12 games.

Raiders – Their division got crazy hard this offseason and they also have to play the other toughest division in football, the NFCW.

Lions - they're the opposite of the Steelers and the only over I'm taking. Just a wild hair b/c they lost so many close games last year and played better than their record indicated. They went 3-13-1 last season, but they lost 7 games by 1 score or less, with 5 of those losses coming by 2, 2, 3, 2, and 4. They also showed improvement when Campbell took the play-calling away from Anthony Lynn in mid November. They come back this year with a better team than last season.


Whatever you do, do not bet SF either way. No telling what the new QB will do. This team is too unpredictable.

Well-backed guesses!

 

[Clayton]

Eric Eager out of PFF likes:

Raiders under. Tough division and they think they're overrated even as a fringe contender.

Giants over just simply by upgrading from the worst coaching in the league and some basic roster moves.

Apparently the PFF model is saying to take the under on the Ravens but they aren't sure if their model is wrong or if the Ravens offense will keep regressing.

Mentioned Washington and Jets as potential over bets. Conversely, most of PFF is really worried about Z Wilson at QB

 

[rmilia1]

Atlanta under 5 5 is the biggest lock on the board

Id take under if it was 3.5

 

[nebearsfan70]

Easy pick... Bears under. That team won't win shit.

 

[FlyerFinFan]

Don't show @FlyerFinFan this, he'll have a stroke!

I actually love it more motivation for this young team. I hate betting overs but I'd take the Fins if I had to.

 

[FlyerFinFan]

Steelers
Bears
Lions
Jaguars
Dolphins x2

I'll be your daisy if you want the Jets over Fins twice! Name your price hoss.

 

[Southieinnc]

I'll be your daisy if you want the Jets over Fins twice! Name your price hoss.

That's stealing!

 

[FlyerFinFan]

That's stealing!

You have to try as one thing I've learned in life is you can't fix stupid! By the way where's NW? Heck even Cowherd is coming to his senses somewhat late but realizing that the Fins are slowly building things up. Won't be an easy out anymore.

 

[Tapey]

It's a dice game for sure.

Drafting is never a guarentee. Even if you get a quality QB #10 or higher, that's still no guarentee to 1. win a SB or 2. stay competitive.

Look at Seattle with RW. It will be interesting to see how he does in Denver.

The Brady thing is just not human. Coaching and skilled players with great chemistry played a huge part of their success IMHO. The Pats kept getting r*ped for coaches. Loose a couple key players. Cut a few a year early...

But what remained constant besides Brady was BB, decent drafts and a roster with many 2nd tier level guys who were put in place to excel at what they were good at. Only asked to do their job.

BB unlike a lot of GMs built around Brady with a LOT of non sexy picks.

"Life is like a box of chocolates"

RW about to get exposed

 

[NWPATSFAN]

RW about to get exposed

What leads you to say that?

Denver should have the best Oline he's played behind. I give Denver the slight edge in the receiver corps. Lockette made a lot of big catches due to RWs scrambling IMO. RBs hard to say. Seattle put so much stock in their RBs. But most got injured.

The only downside I see is how much mobility has RW lost? He's still mobile but 10 years of NFL hits look they're taking their toll.

Has he put on weight the last few seasons? Is that a factor in his being caught more?

 

[Tapey]

What leads you to say that?

Denver should have the best Oline he's played behind. I give Denver the slight edge in the receiver corps. Lockette made a lot of big catches due to RWs scrambling IMO. RBs hard to say. Seattle put so much stock in their RBs. But most got injured.

The only downside I see is how much mobility has RW lost? He's still mobile but 10 years of NFL hits look they're taking their toll.

Has he put on weight the last few seasons? Is that a factor in his being caught more?

All the dude knows how to do is throw it deep or scramble and hope something is there. He very rarely throws it over the middle probably because he can’t see it. I can’t count how many times there was someone wide open over the middle and he either threw deep into double coverage or would roll out into a sack.

Seahawks oline probably going to look better this year mostly because they improved it a decent bit, but also they hopefully won’t have a QB who needs to roll out into sacks to see the field.

Broncos oline which I’m pretty sure was only slightly better then the Seahawks, will probably get worse because RW loves rolling into sacks.

WR I’m not going to argue on because I’m bias.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

All the dude knows how to do is throw it deep or scramble and hope something is there. He very rarely throws it over the middle probably because he can’t see it. I can’t count how many times there was someone wide open over the middle and he either threw deep into double coverage or would roll out into a sack.

Seahawks oline probably going to look better this year mostly because they improved it a decent bit, but also they hopefully won’t have a QB who needs to roll out into sacks to see the field.

Broncos oline which I’m pretty sure was only slightly better then the Seahawks, will probably get worse because RW loves rolling into sacks.

WR I’m not going to argue on because I’m bias.

Fair enough, not a sentiment felt by many 12s minus the rolling into sacks.

RW always graded out as top 10?

Like I said it will be interesting to see how he does now?

 

[Tapey]

Fair enough, not a sentiment felt by many 12s minus the rolling into sacks.

RW always graded out as top 10?

Like I said it will be interesting to see how he does now?

I’ve also been on the fuck RW train since he weaseled his way out. So I’m probably bias on the entire topic tbh.