shopson67
Well-Known Member
Even at the 2 slot they only have a 55% chance of getting a top 3 pick. But I have a hard time seeing them doing any worse than 3rd after the Williams trade, unless he was blocking someone from really stepping up.
Surprisingly, in the 7 drafts under the current lottery odds system (since 1994), here are the frequencies for the top 3 to stay in the top 3:
1st seed: 1st x5, 2nd x9, 3rd x5, 4th x4
2nd seed: 1st x2, 2nd x3, 3rd x5, 4th x10, 5th x3
3rd seed: 1st x4, 3rd x4, 4th x4, 5th x10, 6th
Strange that the 3rd seed hasn't picked 2nd in 23 drafts. Draft odds should be entirely independent from all previous drafts, but that seems like a match that's overdue. The 1st seed has only missed the top 3 17% of the 23 drafts, although the probability should be 35%. Again, another spot that seems due. 2nd seed has been under-represented in the 1 and 2 picks and over-represented at the 4th and 5th. The tendencies despite the known odds would seem to indicate a good chance of a 2, 3, X, 1 order, with X being a team jumping up. Like I noted though, past tendencies or reactions to the mean shouldn't have any influence on a truly random draw. Interesting to try to project though.
It really depends. If Paul George really does prefer the Lakers, then the last thing the Lakers want is for some team like the Celtics or Thunder to step in and lure him away. The problem is that the Lakers, as constructed, aren't offering anything the Pacers have. Hoping that pure loyalty to the franchise is all you need to lure a star, seems like a dubious approach to me. Players change their minds all the time, and in this case his opinions haven't even been made public.
All of the up and coming teams, IMO, need to take the next step if they want to lure top talent. This applies to the Lakers, Sixers, Wolves, and Bucks as well as some other teams a little earlier on in their process.
What is it that the Pacers have that will keep PG? The fact that they tried and failed to trade him without keeping him in the loop? A playoff team treading water with no championship chance really? If they don't add pieces around him this offseason, he's only going to get more frustrated with the franchise.
He's the one putting the Lakers rumors out there. Only he knows if they're true or not. However, the Lakers have several young assets that could either blossom or be traded for veteran players to surround a player like PG. The Lakers have never been kept down long (at least under proper management), and hopefully getting Jim Buss out of the way will get the Lakers out of their rut.